Group 1 - The main contract for silicon iron futures experienced a rapid decline, reaching a low of 5454.00 yuan, closing at 5460.00 yuan with a drop of 1.30% [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by macroeconomic factors and cost support, with both silicon and manganese silicon prices showing an upward trend since mid-June, with silicon iron up 7.8% and manganese silicon up 6.1% [2] - The current market is characterized by "emotion-driven highs with demand support still present," indicating a cautious approach is necessary as prices have reached the hedging range for manufacturers [2] Group 2 - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is expected to improve commodity sentiment [3] - The production profits for ferroalloys are currently negative, with losses reported at -310 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia and -250 yuan/ton in Ningxia [3] - Technical analysis indicates that the 4-hour K-line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, suggesting a bullish outlook, but investors are advised to exercise risk control [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The real - demand for steel is weak, and steel prices are still in the process of finding a bottom [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Quantity Contradictions - Macro Policy - The 2025 government work report's GDP target is about 5%, the deficit is 4%, the inflation target is 2%, the local government special bond scale is 4.4 trillion, and the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale is 1.3 trillion. The Politburo meeting on April 28th did not issue any unexpected policies, and China will enter a policy window period. In May, the M1 - M2 scissors gap was - 5.6, and the decline continued to narrow [7] 3.2 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Supply - In March 2025, the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale was 1.3 trillion. On May 20th, the loan market quotation rate (LPR) was lowered for the first time this year. On May 15th, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was lowered by 0.5 percentage points [11] 3.3 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Demand - Relevant data on new social financing scale, resident medium - and long - term loans, new RMB loans, and enterprise medium - and long - term loans are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data [13][14][15][16] 3.4 Real Estate 3.4.1 Sales - Housing prices show signs of stabilizing, and the decline in new home sales has narrowed. Rigid demand is related to population growth, urbanization rate, and resident leverage ratio. Investment demand is related to housing prices. Housing prices lead to second - hand housing sales, and second - hand housing sales lead to new home sales [17][20][22] 3.4.2 New Construction and Land Transactions - Land acquisition leads new construction by 6 months [24] 3.5 Infrastructure 3.5.1 Funds - Traditional funds include public fiscal expenditure, government - funded expenditure, and special bonds. Emerging funds involve quasi - fiscal policies, such as 700 billion yuan of the 1 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2024 being used for "two major" construction projects, and a 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special sovereign bond in March 2025 [26][27][30][31] 3.5.2 Projects - Data on the construction industry PMI and the start - up investment amount of major projects are presented [33] 3.6 Manufacturing 3.6.1 General Situation - Supported by new factors, the production and sales of major industrial products maintain high growth, but exports face shocks [34] 3.6.2 Production and Sales of Major Industrial Products - The production and sales of automobiles, white goods, excavators, and other products are presented, with specific production data and year - on - year growth rates [39][40] 3.6.3 Production Enterprises' Orders and Sales - The planned and actual production of household appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, as well as their domestic sales data, are presented [43] 3.6.4 Automobile Production and Sales - The automobile industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, with structural contradictions in production and sales by variety. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [57] 3.6.5 Machinery Production and Sales - The machinery industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, and the export proportion of sub - varieties is increasing year by year. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [65] 3.6.6 Ship Production and Sales - Shipbuilding is driven by economic growth, manufacturing capacity changes, supply - demand patterns, renewal cycles, and transportation efficiency in different periods. Currently, shipyards have sufficient orders on hand, and new orders continue to grow at a high rate [70] 3.7 Steel Direct Exports - Steel exports are adjusting passively by trading price for volume. Vietnam's anti - dumping tax has a great impact on China's steel exports to Vietnam, and the traditional price - for - volume model is affected [71][74] 3.8 Steel Demand - Steel demand is gradually peaking, and negative feedback should be vigilant. Data on spot transactions and variety price difference structures are presented [83][89][91]

关注双焦的边际变化 研究院黑色建材小组 01 行情回顾 核心交易焦煤仓单与季节性需求见顶 螺纹 热卷 铁矿 焦炭 焦煤 黑色商品05合约5月涨跌幅（收盘价） 02 总体来说，5月黑色的交易 与4月基本类似，核心就在 于焦煤宽松的确认以及仓 单的下移。于此同时，5月 动力煤现货价格的加速下 跌，以及铁水的季节性见 顶回落，所引发的对于动 力煤未来快速悲观和对钢 材需求环比走弱预期的增 强，引起了更多其他资金 的入场，进而加速了5月焦 煤的价格下跌并带动整体 黑色价格中枢的下移。 但进入6月以来，这一逻辑 开始出现变动。核心在于 宏观预期的边际改善，中 美领导人开启对话，于此 同时蒙古6月初政坛动荡也 突发出现、国内安全生产 月活动展开，从而市场开 始不断关注供给减量、环 保、水资源保护、成材需 求持稳等等。进而带来了 此前打过头的焦煤反弹收 基差。 2025-05-25 2025-05-26 2025-05-27 2025-05-28 2025-05-29 2025-05-30 2025-05-31 2025-06-01 2025-06-02 2025-06-03 2025-06-04 2025-06-05 2 ...