1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The marginal impact of the macro - environment on the steel industry is weakening, and steel prices will continue to fluctuate within a range [1]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 2.1 Fundamental Situation - **Price and Basis**: The report presents season - based price charts of Shanghai 20mm rebar and 4.75mm hot - rolled coil, as well as the basis season charts of rebar and hot - rolled coil 01 contracts in Shanghai [9][10][12]. - **Contract Spreads**: It includes the 01 - 05 contract spreads of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and the spread between the main contracts of hot - rolled coil and rebar [14][15][16]. - **Profit**: The report shows the 01 - contract disk profits of rebar and hot - rolled coil [22]. - **Production**: Statistics on monthly pig iron and crude steel production, 247 steel mills' daily average hot - metal output, and the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces are provided [24][25][34]. - **Import and Export**: Data on steel and billet import quantities, steel and billet export quantities, and the export profits of Indian and Japanese hot - rolled coils are presented [36][59]. - **Demand and Inventory**: Information on the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major steel products, as well as the inventory of billets in the Tangshan area, is included [44][51]. 2.2 November Market Outlook - Although no specific outlook content is provided, the report is expected to analyze the market trend of the steel industry in November based on the previous fundamental data. 2.3 Macroeconomic and Downstream Industry Indicators - **Financial Indicators**: Data on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, and the loan demand index for infrastructure are presented [74][93]. - **Real Estate Indicators**: Information on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment, land transaction area in 100 large and medium - sized cities, monthly year - on - year growth rate of commercial housing sales area, and new housing starts area is provided [76][81]. - **Infrastructure Indicators**: Data on the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure fixed - asset investment, monthly year - on - year growth rate of infrastructure construction investment, and cement direct - supply volume for infrastructure are presented [96][99]. - **Manufacturing Indicators**: Information on the performance of various sub - items of the PMI, cumulative year - on - year growth rate of industrial enterprise profits, and monthly year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value is provided [105][108]. - **Downstream Industry Production**: Data on the monthly production of automobiles, civil steel ships, excavators, metal containers, refrigerators, and air conditioners are presented [119][125].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The black metal sector continued to decline today but rebounded slightly at the end of the session. Steel spot trading was weak overall, with poor speculative interest and mainly刚需 purchases. After the holiday, steel prices are expected to remain in a bottom - oscillating pattern with limited downside space. If downstream demand recovers beyond expectations in October, steel prices may rise further. Also, the "15th Five - Year Plan" content will affect market fluctuations. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to expand [8]. - The steel market is under pressure due to continuous inventory accumulation and a significant drop in demand. Although the short - term market is affected by news and under pressure, the low valuation of the futures market and the rise in thermal coal prices suggest that steel prices will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern in the short term [8]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Rebar Futures**: RB05 was at 3114 yuan/ton (down 25 yuan from yesterday), RB10 at 2970 yuan/ton (down 16 yuan), and RB01 at 3061 yuan/ton (down 22 yuan). The 05 - contract rebar盘面 profit was - 142 yuan (up 7 yuan), the 10 - contract was - 285 yuan (up 19 yuan), and the 01 - contract was - 166 yuan (up 9 yuan) [3]. - **Rebar Spot**: Shanghai Zhongtian was at 3180 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan), Nanjing Xicheng at 3280 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), Shandong Shiheng at 3160 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Tangshan Tanggang at 3110 yuan/ton (down 10 yuan). The cheapest delivery product was 3160 yuan/ton. Rebar profits in different regions showed various changes, with East China rebar profit at - 228 yuan/ton (down 1 yuan) and Tangshan rebar profit at - 319 yuan/ton (up 2 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Futures**: HC05 was at 3248 yuan/ton (down 26 yuan), HC10 at 3442 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan), and HC01 at 3241 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan). The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil盘面 profit was - 8 yuan (up 6 yuan), the 10 - contract was 187 yuan (up 40 yuan), and the 01 - contract was 14 yuan (up 11 yuan) [3]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Spot**: Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was at 3220 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan), and Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was at 3260 - 3290 yuan/ton (down 20 - 30 yuan). The cheapest delivery product was 3260 yuan/ton. Hot - rolled coil profits in different regions also changed, with Tianjin hot - rolled coil profit at - 341 yuan/ton (down 18 yuan) and East China hot - rolled coil profit at - 227 yuan/ton (down 21 yuan) [3]. 3.2 Market Judgement - **Related Prices**: The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian rebar was 3180 yuan (down 10 yuan), Beijing Jingye was 3130 yuan (down 10 yuan), Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan (down 30 yuan), and Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3220 yuan (down 30 yuan) [7]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Unilateral**: Maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern, and it is recommended to buy on dips [9]. - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to continue holding the 1 - 5 positive spread and go long on the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar [10]. - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Important News** - In September 2025, 19,858 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. Domestic sales were 9,249 units, a year - on - year increase of 21.5%, and exports were 10,609 units, a year - on - year increase of 29%. From January to September, a total of 174,039 excavators were sold, a year - on - year increase of 18.1% [11]. - The Ministry of Transport issued a document on charging port fees for US ships, which has limited impact on iron ore transportation [8]. 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to rebar and hot - rolled coil contract basis, spreads, and profit margins, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Mysteel, and Wind [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Steel: In Q3, influenced by coal production cuts, coking coal drove up the black - metal price center. However, steel prices were not strong due to weak demand. In August, domestic real - estate and infrastructure investment declined, and manufacturing investment growth weakened. Although coal supply interference persisted, steel and raw materials did not move in tandem, and Q4 had significant macro - policy disturbances. In September, steel apparent demand seasonally recovered, and high exports digested production, leading to inventory reduction. Steel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range, with rebar between 3100 - 3350 yuan and hot - rolled coil between 3300 - 3500 yuan. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options [1]. - Iron Ore: As of the previous day's close, the iron ore 2601 contract showed a downward - fluctuating trend. Supply - side: last week, global iron ore shipments decreased, and 45 - port arrivals increased. Future arrivals are expected to first rise and then fall. Demand - side: steel mill profit margins slightly declined, but molten iron production increased, and steel mills' restocking demand grew. The fundamentals improved slightly, but were still insufficient in the peak season, with raw materials stronger than finished products. Port inventories increased, and the dredging volume decreased, while steel mills' equity ore inventories rose. In the future, molten iron production will remain high in October, and low port inventories support iron ore prices, but beware of port inventory accumulation risks in Q4. Iron ore is in a balanced - to - tight situation, but weak finished products drag down raw materials. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, with a range of 750 - 830. Short the iron ore 2601 contract on rallies, and recommend the spread strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [4]. - Coke: As of the previous day's close, coke futures showed a weak downward trend, with a divergence between spot and futures prices. Mainstream coke enterprises started to raise prices, and port trade quotes fluctuated with futures. On the spot side, after the second price cut by mainstream steel mills on September 15, prices rebounded on September 25. It is expected that the spot price of coke will gradually rebound, with 2 - 3 rounds of increases possible. On the supply side, rising coking coal prices led to some coke enterprises' losses and reduced production. On the demand side, steel mills continued to resume production, and molten iron production increased slightly. In terms of inventory, coking plants and ports reduced inventory, while steel mills increased inventory. The market is mainly trading pre - holiday restocking progress and future supply - demand changes. Due to rising coking coal costs and high molten iron production, the futures price has already priced in potential price increases. Speculate by shorting the coke 2601 contract on rallies, with a range of 1550 - 1750, and recommend the spread strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [6]. - Coking Coal: Yesterday, coking coal futures showed a weak downward trend, with a divergence between spot and futures prices. Spot auction prices generally rose, and Mongolian coal quotes followed the futures up and then down. The domestic coking coal market is running strongly, with improved downstream procurement willingness and better market transactions. On the supply side, main - producing area coal mines continued to resume production this week, logistics improved, and coal mines sold at discounted prices. Imported Mongolian coal prices rose, and the border port will be closed for 7 days during the National Day holiday. On the demand side, molten iron production continued to rise, and coking plant operations were stable, with increased downstream restocking demand. In terms of inventory, mines and ports reduced inventory, while ports, coal - washing plants, coking plants, and steel mills increased inventory. After significant restocking, downstream restocking demand will decline, and coking coal prices may peak and fall. Short the coking coal 2601 contract on rallies, with a range of 1150 - 1300, and recommend the spread strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar: Spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan, and futures prices for 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 16, 17, and 17 yuan respectively [1]. - Hot - rolled Coil: Spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 yuan, and futures prices for 05, 10, and 01 contracts decreased by 22, 3, and 24 yuan respectively [1]. Cost and Profit - Costs: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Jiangsu electric - furnace rebar cost increased by 1 yuan, and Jiangsu converter rebar cost decreased by 1 yuan [1]. - Profits: East China rebar profit increased by 1 yuan, North China rebar profit increased by 11 yuan, South China rebar profit increased by 11 yuan. East China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 1 yuan, North China hot - rolled coil profit increased by 1 yuan, and South China hot - rolled coil profit decreased by 1 yuan [1]. Production - Daily average molten iron production increased by 1.0 to 242.0, a 0.4% increase. Five - major steel product output increased by 9.4 to 864.9, a 1.1% increase. Rebar output remained unchanged at 206.5, with electric - furnace output decreasing by 4.0 to 22.7 (- 15.0%) and converter output increasing by 4.0 to 183.7 (2.2%). Hot - rolled coil output decreased by 2.3 to 324.2, a - 0.7% decrease [1]. Inventory - Five - major steel product inventory decreased by 9.1 to 1510.6, a - 0.6% decrease. Rebar inventory decreased by 14.0 to 636.3, a - 2.1% decrease. Hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.5 to 380.5, a 0.7% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - Building material trading volume decreased by 0.4 to 11.0, a - 3.3% decrease. Five - major steel product apparent demand increased by 23.7 to 874.1, a 2.8% increase. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.4 to 220.4, a 5.0% increase. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.1 to 321.7, a 0.0% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - Warehouse receipt costs: Costs of Carajás fines, PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines decreased by 4.4, 7.7, 5.4, and 8.6 respectively, with decreases of - 0.5%, - 0.9%, - 0.6%, and - 1.0% [4]. - 01 contract basis: The basis of Carajás fines increased by 1.6 to 56.7 (2.9%), while the basis of PB fines, Brazilian mixed fines, and Jinbuba fines decreased by 1.7, 2.6, and 2.6 respectively, with decreases of - 4.0%, - 1.2%, and - 4.9% [4]. - Spread: 5 - 9 spread increased by 0.5 to 19.5 (2.6%), 9 - 1 spread decreased by 1.5 to - 41.0 (- 3.8%), and 1 - 5 spread increased by 1.0 to 21.5 (4.9%) [4]. Supply - 45 - port weekly arrivals decreased by 314.5 to 2360.5, a - 11.8% decrease. Weekly global shipments increased by 150.6 to 3475.4, a 4.5% increase. Monthly national imports increased by 61.5 to 10522.5, a 0.6% increase [4]. Demand - 247 steel mills' weekly average daily molten iron production increased by 1.4 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase. 45 - port weekly average daily dredging volume decreased by 2.8 to 336.4, a - 0.8% decrease. Monthly national pig iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a - 1.4% decrease. Monthly national crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a - 2.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - 45 - port weekly inventory increased by 69.3 to 14000.28, a 0.5% increase. 247 steel mills' weekly imported ore inventory increased by 427.0 to 9736.4, a 4.6% increase. 64 steel mills' weekly inventory available days increased by 2.0 to 24.0, a 9.1% increase [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained at 1200, and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke (warehouse receipt) remained at 1613. Coke 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 46, with decreases of - 2.7% and - 2.5% respectively. 01 and 05 basis increased by 46 [6]. - J01 - J05 spread remained at - 143. Steel - union coking profit decreased by 11 to - 64 [6]. Supply - Full - sample coking plant average daily output decreased by 0.4 to 66.3, a - 0.6% decrease. 247 steel mills' average daily output increased by 1.3 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase [6]. Demand - 247 steel mills' molten iron output increased by 1.4 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase [6]. Inventory - Total coke inventory increased by 5.2 to 920.4, a 0.6% increase. Full - sample coking plant coke inventory decreased by 3.4 to 63.0, a - 5.1% decrease. 247 steel mills' coke inventory increased by 16.6 to 661.3, a 2.6% increase. Steel mills' available days increased by 0.2 to 11.7, a 2.1% increase. Port inventory decreased by 8.0 to 196.1, a - 3.9% decrease [6]. Supply - Demand Gap - Coke supply - demand gap decreased by 1.2 to - 4.6, a - 27.1% decrease [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Shanxi medium - sulfur primary coking coal (warehouse receipt) remained at 1270, and Mongolian No. 5 raw coal (warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 to 1160, a - 0.4% decrease. Coking coal 01 and 05 contracts decreased by 43 and 42 respectively, with decreases of - 3.6% and - 3.3% respectively. 01 and 05 basis increased by 38 and 37 respectively. JM01 - JM05 spread decreased by 1 [6]. - Sample coal mine profit increased by 31 to 452, a 7.4% increase [6]. Supply - Fenwei sample coal mine raw coal output increased by 4.1 to 876.6, a 0.5% increase. Clean coal output increased by 1.4 to 452.0, a 0.3% increase [6]. Demand - Full - sample coking plant average daily output decreased by 0.4 to 66.3, a - 0.6% decrease. 247 steel mills' average daily output increased by 1.3 to 242.4, a 0.6% increase [6]. Inventory - Fenwei coal mine clean coal inventory decreased by 10.0 to 104.7, a - 8.7% decrease. Full - sample coking plant coking coal inventory increased by 58.7 to 999.1, a 6.2% increase. 247 steel mills' coking coal inventory increased by 5.7 to 796.1, a 0.7% increase. Steel mills' available days increased by 0.2 to 12.9, a 1.2% increase. Port inventory decreased by 16.7 to 265.5, a - 5.9% decrease [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The steel price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend. The reference range for rebar is 3100 - 3350 yuan, and for hot - rolled coils is 3300 - 3500 yuan. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal repair of apparent demand. Hold short positions on the January hot - rolled coil - rebar price spread [1]. Summary by Directory - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices in different regions and contracts showed varying degrees of increase. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coil increased by 14 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The billet price decreased by 30 yuan, while the slab price remained unchanged. The profits of hot - rolled coils in different regions decreased, with the East China hot - rolled coil profit decreasing by 30 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average hot - metal output increased by 0.4 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The output of five major steel products decreased by 1.8 to 855.5, a 0.2% decrease. Rebar production decreased by 5.5 to 206.5, a 2.6% decrease, while hot - rolled coil production increased by 1.4 to 326.5, a 0.4% increase [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 5.1 to 1519.7, a 0.3% increase. Rebar inventory decreased by 3.6 to 650.3, a 0.5% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 4.7 to 378.0, a 1.3% increase [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 1.2 to 10.4, a 12.9% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 7.0 to 850.3, a 0.8% increase. The apparent demand for rebar increased by 12.0 to 210.0, a 6.0% increase, while the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 4.3 to 321.8, a 1.3% decrease [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. The price is expected to oscillate with an upward bias, with a reference range of 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of iron ore at low prices and conduct an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot - rolled coils [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The basis of different types of iron ore decreased, for example, the 01 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 44.6 to 37.9, a 54.0% decrease. The 5 - 9 spread increased by 1.0 to 21.0, a 5.0% increase [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 312.7 to 2675.0, a 13.2% increase, while the global weekly shipping volume decreased by 248.3 to 3324.8, a 6.9% decrease. The monthly national import volume increased by 61.5 to 10522.5, a 0.6% increase [4]. - **Demand**: The weekly average hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase. The weekly average port clearance volume at 45 ports increased by 7.9 to 339.2, a 2.4% increase. The monthly national pig - iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a 1.4% decrease, and the monthly national crude - steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a 2.9% decrease [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 129.9 to 13930.97, a 0.9% increase. The inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills increased by 316.4 to 9309.4, a 3.5% increase. The available days of inventory in 64 steel mills increased by 2.0 to 22.0, a 10.0% increase [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coke at low prices, with a reference range of 1650 - 1800. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract of coking coal at low prices, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. Consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Summary by Directory Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coke contracts and spot in different regions increased to varying degrees. For example, the 01 contract of coke increased by 13 to 1730, a 0.7% increase. The coking profit decreased by 11 to - 54 [6]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 [6]. - **Demand**: The hot - metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.5 to 241.0, a 0.2% increase [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The total coke inventory increased by 8.9 to 915.2, a 1.0% increase. The coking - plant inventory decreased, while the steel - mill and port inventories increased [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of coking - coal contracts and spot in different regions changed. The 01 contract of coking coal increased by 7 to 1225, a 0.6% increase. The sample coal - mine profit increased by 17 to 421, a 4.2% increase [6]. - **Supply**: The main - producing - area coal mines continued to resume production, and the logistics improved. The coal - mine sales and prices increased. The imported Mongolian coal price increased, and the port will be closed for 7 days during the National Day holiday [6]. - **Demand**: The hot - metal output continued to rise, the coking - plant operation was stable, and the downstream restocking demand increased [6]. - **Inventory Changes**: The coal - mine, port, and steel - mill inventories decreased, while the coal - washing plant, coking - plant, and port inventories increased [6].

Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint Steel prices are expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend, with the reference range for rebar oscillations at 3100 - 3350 yuan/ton and for hot - rolled coils at 3300 - 3500 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions with a light position and pay attention to the seasonal recovery of apparent demand. The spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is expected to continue to converge, and shorting the January spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is advisable [1]. Content Summary - **Price and Spread**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices mostly declined. For example, rebar spot in East China dropped from 3280 yuan/ton to 3270 yuan/ton, and hot - rolled coil 01 contract dropped from 3380 yuan/ton to 3340 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Profits of hot - rolled coils and rebar in different regions showed various changes, such as East China hot - rolled coil profit increasing by 16 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output increased slightly by 0.2% to 241.0 tons. The output of five major steel products decreased by 0.2% to 855.5 tons, with rebar output dropping by 2.6% to 206.5 tons and hot - rolled coil output increasing by 0.4% to 326.5 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products increased by 0.3% to 1519.7 tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 0.5% to 650.3 tons, while hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 1.3% to 378.0 tons [1]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 0.8% to 850.3 tons, rebar apparent demand increased by 6.0% to 210.0 tons, and hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 1.3% to 321.8 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. It is recommended to view it with a long - biased outlook in a single - side trading, with the reference range of 780 - 850 yuan/ton. It is advisable to go long on the Iron Ore 2601 contract at low prices and recommend an arbitrage strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coils [4]. Content Summary - **Price and Spread**: The inventory cost of various iron ore powders and spot prices mostly declined. For example, the inventory cost of PB powder dropped from 848.0 yuan/ton to 842.5 yuan/ton. The 01 contract basis of various iron ore powders decreased significantly, such as the 01 contract basis of PB powder dropping from 82.0 yuan/ton to 40.0 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipment volume decreased by 6.9% to 3324.8 tons, and the 45 - port arrival volume increased by 13.2% to 2675.0 tons. The subsequent average arrival volume is expected to first increase and then decrease [4]. - **Demand**: The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 2.4% to 339.2 tons. The monthly national pig iron and crude steel output decreased by 1.4% and 2.9% respectively [4]. - **Inventory**: The 45 - port inventory increased by 0.9% to 13930.97 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 3.5% to 9309.4 tons, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills increased by 10.0% to 22.0 days [4]. Group 3: Coke and Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating No specific investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoint - **Coke**: It is recommended to go long on the Coke 2601 contract at low prices, with the reference range of 1650 - 1800 yuan/ton, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke. - **Coking Coal**: It is recommended to go long on the Coking Coal 2601 contract at low prices, with the reference range of 1150 - 1300 yuan/ton, and an arbitrage strategy of long coking coal and short coke [6]. Content Summary - **Price and Spread**: Coke and coking coal spot and futures prices showed different trends. For example, the price of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the Coking Coal 05 contract increased by 0.6% to 1314 yuan/ton. The basis of both decreased [6]. - **Supply**: Coke production remained stable, and the output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased slightly by 0.1% to 66.7 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.2% to 241.0 tons [6]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output continued to increase, the coking plant operation remained stable, and the downstream restocking demand increased [6]. - **Inventory**: For coke, coking plants' inventory decreased, while steel mills' and ports' inventory increased. For coking coal, coal mines', ports', and steel mills' inventory decreased, while coal - washing plants', coking plants', and ports' inventory increased [6]. - **Profit**: The coking profit of Steel Union decreased by 11 yuan/ton to - 54 yuan/ton, and the sample coal mine profit increased by 4.2% to 404 yuan/ton [6].

Report on the Steel Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The demand side of steel remains weak in reality and expectation, but there is an expected contraction in the coal supply. The pricing is influenced by both weak steel demand and the expected contraction in coal supply. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the reference range for rebar being 3100 - 3350 yuan/ton and for hot-rolled coil being 3300 - 3500 yuan/ton. Hold long positions at low levels and monitor the seasonal recovery of apparent demand [1]. Summary by Directory Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar spot prices in East, North, and South China decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while futures contract prices mostly increased. - Hot-rolled coil spot prices in different regions decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and futures contract prices mostly decreased [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet price increased by 30 yuan/ton, and slab price remained unchanged. - Costs of Jiangsu electric furnace rebar and converter rebar increased, and profits of rebar and hot-rolled coil in different regions mostly increased [1]. Production - The daily average pig iron output increased by 11.6 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%. - The output of five major steel products decreased by 3.4 to 857.2, a decline of 0.4%. Rebar output decreased by 6.8 to 211.9, a decrease of 3.1%, and hot-rolled coil output increased by 10.9 to 325.1, a rise of 3.5% [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products increased by 13.9 to 1514.6, a rise of 0.9%. Rebar inventory increased by 13.9 to 653, a rise of 2.2%, and hot-rolled coil inventory decreased by 1.0 to 373.3, a decline of 0.3% [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.7 to 11.1, a decline of 6.0%. - The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 15.5 to 843.3, a rise of 1.9%. Rebar apparent demand decreased by 4.0 to 198.1, a decline of 2.0%, and hot-rolled coil apparent demand increased by 20.8 to 326.2, a rise of 6.8% [1]. Report on the Iron Ore Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The iron ore market is in a balanced and slightly tight pattern. Unilaterally, it is considered to be in a slightly bullish trend, with the reference range being 780 - 850. It is recommended to go long on the iron ore 2601 contract on dips and engage in the arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on hot-rolled coil [4]. Summary by Directory Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of different iron ore powders showed slight changes, and the basis of the 01 contract for various powders decreased significantly. - The 5 - 9 spread decreased by 0.5 to 19.0, a decline of 2.6%, the 9 - 1 spread remained unchanged, and the 1 - 5 spread increased by 0.5 to 22.0, a rise of 2.3% [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of different iron ore powders in Rizhao Port showed slight changes, and the prices of the Singapore Exchange 62% Fe swap and Platts 62% Fe increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 85.7 to 2362.3, a decline of 3.5%, and the global shipment volume increased by 816.9 to 3573.1, a rise of 29.6%. The national monthly import volume decreased by 131.5 to 10462.3, a decline of 1.2% [4]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.7 to 240.6, a rise of 5.1%, the 45 - port daily average desilting volume increased by 13.5 to 337.3, a rise of 4.2%. The national monthly pig iron output decreased by 100.5 to 6979.3, a decline of 1.4%, and the national monthly crude steel output decreased by 229.0 to 7736.9, a decline of 2.9% [4]. Inventory Changes - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 45.1 to 13804.41, a decline of 0.3%, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 53.2 to 8993.1, a rise of 0.6%, and the inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 20.0, a decline of 4.8% [4]. Report on the Coke Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. Core View After two rounds of coke price cuts, downstream users and traders are starting to replenish stocks in advance. The market generally expects limited downside, and there is a pre - National Day restocking demand. It is recommended to go long on the coke 2601 contract on dips, with the reference range being 1650 - 1800, and engage in the arbitrage strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Summary by Directory Coke and Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. The prices of coke and coking coal futures contracts mostly decreased. - The basis of coke and coking coal futures contracts showed some changes [6]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased by 2.4 to 66.8, a rise of 3.8%. The output of Fenwei sample coal mines increased, with the raw coal output increasing by 43.8 to 817.3, a rise of 5.4%, and the clean coal output increasing by 23.3 to 442.5, a rise of 5.6% [6]. Demand - The pig iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 11.8 to 240.6, a rise of 5.14%. The daily average output of all - sample coking plants increased, indicating an increase in coke demand [6]. Inventory Changes - Coke total inventory increased by 11.0 to 906.2, a rise of 1.2%. The inventory of all - sample coking plants and steel mills increased slightly, while the port inventory decreased. - Coking coal inventory in different sectors showed different changes, with the overall inventory at a medium level and slightly decreasing [6].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a decline in prices due to weak demand and increased inventory levels, with significant variations in the performance of different steel products [1][2][6]. Supply - Iron element production increased by 18 million tons year-on-year, a growth rate of 3.1%. In August, production rebounded compared to July, primarily due to a notable increase in scrap steel consumption [3]. - The production of five major steel products rose by 64,000 tons to 8.78 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 58,000 tons to 2.15 million tons, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 96,000 tons to 3.25 million tons [3]. Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major steel products remained flat year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production fell by 1.3% [4]. - Domestic demand decreased year-on-year, but external demand increased significantly, leading to an overall increase in steel demand despite a seasonal decline [4]. Inventory - There has been a significant accumulation of inventory, primarily among traders, with the total inventory of the five major steel products increasing by 250,000 tons to 14.41 million tons [5]. - Rebar inventory rose by 200,000 tons to 6.07 million tons, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [5]. Price Trends - The steel market sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in steel prices, with rebar prices falling more than hot-rolled coil prices due to a noticeable drop in demand for rebar [6]. - The price difference between rebar and hot-rolled coil has narrowed, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market shows signs of price increases driven by rising costs and demand recovery, with specific price movements noted in various steel products [1][2][4]. Supply - Iron element production from January to July increased by 18 million tons, a growth rate of 3.1%, with production in July remaining stable compared to June [3] - The production of rebar rose by 100,000 tons to 2.21 million tons, indicating a notable recovery in rebar production [3] - Hot-rolled steel production decreased by 79,000 tons to 3.14 million tons, showing a significant decline [3] Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major steel products remained nearly flat, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production fell by 1.3% [4] - Domestic demand decreased year-on-year, but external demand increased significantly, with direct and indirect steel exports rising [4] - The apparent demand for rebar increased by 74,000 tons to 2.108 million tons, while hot-rolled steel demand decreased by 138,000 tons to 3.06 million tons [4] Inventory - Inventory levels have increased for two consecutive weeks, primarily due to rising trader inventories, while steel mill inventory growth was not significant [5] - The inventory of the five major steel products rose by 235,000 tons to 13.754 million tons, with rebar inventory increasing by 103,900 tons to 5.567 million tons [5] - The supply-demand balance for rebar has improved, while the supply-demand situation for plate products remains weak [5]

Group 1 - The main contract for silicon iron futures experienced a rapid decline, reaching a low of 5454.00 yuan, closing at 5460.00 yuan with a drop of 1.30% [1] - The market sentiment is influenced by macroeconomic factors and cost support, with both silicon and manganese silicon prices showing an upward trend since mid-June, with silicon iron up 7.8% and manganese silicon up 6.1% [2] - The current market is characterized by "emotion-driven highs with demand support still present," indicating a cautious approach is necessary as prices have reached the hedging range for manufacturers [2] Group 2 - The Central Financial Committee's sixth meeting emphasized the orderly exit of backward production capacity, which is expected to improve commodity sentiment [3] - The production profits for ferroalloys are currently negative, with losses reported at -310 yuan/ton in Inner Mongolia and -250 yuan/ton in Ningxia [3] - Technical analysis indicates that the 4-hour K-line is above the 20 and 60 moving averages, suggesting a bullish outlook, but investors are advised to exercise risk control [3]

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The real - demand for steel is weak, and steel prices are still in the process of finding a bottom [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Total Quantity Contradictions - Macro Policy - The 2025 government work report's GDP target is about 5%, the deficit is 4%, the inflation target is 2%, the local government special bond scale is 4.4 trillion, and the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale is 1.3 trillion. The Politburo meeting on April 28th did not issue any unexpected policies, and China will enter a policy window period. In May, the M1 - M2 scissors gap was - 5.6, and the decline continued to narrow [7] 3.2 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Supply - In March 2025, the ultra - long - term special sovereign bond scale was 1.3 trillion. On May 20th, the loan market quotation rate (LPR) was lowered for the first time this year. On May 15th, the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions was lowered by 0.5 percentage points [11] 3.3 Total Quantity Contradictions - Capital Demand - Relevant data on new social financing scale, resident medium - and long - term loans, new RMB loans, and enterprise medium - and long - term loans are presented, but no specific conclusions are drawn from the data [13][14][15][16] 3.4 Real Estate 3.4.1 Sales - Housing prices show signs of stabilizing, and the decline in new home sales has narrowed. Rigid demand is related to population growth, urbanization rate, and resident leverage ratio. Investment demand is related to housing prices. Housing prices lead to second - hand housing sales, and second - hand housing sales lead to new home sales [17][20][22] 3.4.2 New Construction and Land Transactions - Land acquisition leads new construction by 6 months [24] 3.5 Infrastructure 3.5.1 Funds - Traditional funds include public fiscal expenditure, government - funded expenditure, and special bonds. Emerging funds involve quasi - fiscal policies, such as 700 billion yuan of the 1 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special treasury bonds in 2024 being used for "two major" construction projects, and a 1.3 - trillion - yuan ultra - long - term special sovereign bond in March 2025 [26][27][30][31] 3.5.2 Projects - Data on the construction industry PMI and the start - up investment amount of major projects are presented [33] 3.6 Manufacturing 3.6.1 General Situation - Supported by new factors, the production and sales of major industrial products maintain high growth, but exports face shocks [34] 3.6.2 Production and Sales of Major Industrial Products - The production and sales of automobiles, white goods, excavators, and other products are presented, with specific production data and year - on - year growth rates [39][40] 3.6.3 Production Enterprises' Orders and Sales - The planned and actual production of household appliances such as air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines, as well as their domestic sales data, are presented [43] 3.6.4 Automobile Production and Sales - The automobile industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, with structural contradictions in production and sales by variety. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [57] 3.6.5 Machinery Production and Sales - The machinery industry operates on a production - based - on - sales model, and the export proportion of sub - varieties is increasing year by year. Leading indicators include enterprise orders [65] 3.6.6 Ship Production and Sales - Shipbuilding is driven by economic growth, manufacturing capacity changes, supply - demand patterns, renewal cycles, and transportation efficiency in different periods. Currently, shipyards have sufficient orders on hand, and new orders continue to grow at a high rate [70] 3.7 Steel Direct Exports - Steel exports are adjusting passively by trading price for volume. Vietnam's anti - dumping tax has a great impact on China's steel exports to Vietnam, and the traditional price - for - volume model is affected [71][74] 3.8 Steel Demand - Steel demand is gradually peaking, and negative feedback should be vigilant. Data on spot transactions and variety price difference structures are presented [83][89][91]