投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 钢材月报 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 基本面边际改善，旺季钢价或企稳 核心观点 假期因素扰动下钢市产业矛盾持续累积，且市场交易逻辑回归产业 端，现实逻辑主导下 2 月钢价震荡走弱。 钢材库存持续累库，且假期因素扰动下各品种库存均迎来显著增 加，但品种间增幅略有差异，其中建筑钢材库存增幅最为明显，多因假 期供应平稳、需求停滞所致，库存压力有所增加；板材库存同样累库， 增幅略低但仍是近年来农历同期最高，去化压力依然偏大。 春节期间长、短流程钢厂生产表现各异，其中短流程 ...

研究所 黑色金属研发报告 黑色金属日报 2026 年 02 月 24 日 螺纹热卷日报 第一部分 市场信息 投资咨询证号： Z0018817 :021-65789253 :qichunyi_qh@chinastock.c om.cn 1/ 10 研究员：戚纯怡 期货从业证号： F03113636 研究所 黑色金属研发报告 第二部分 市场研判 【相关价格】 现货：网价上海中天螺纹 3180 元（-10），北京敬业 3110 元（-10），上海鞍钢热 卷 3220 元（-20），天津河钢热卷 3130 元（-10）。 【交易策略】 今日钢材盘面整体下跌，现货价格相比节前小幅下行。节日期间钢联数据公布， 五大材整体仍然增产，铁水生产受节日影响较小；春节期间下游工地停工，钢材总库 存加快累库进度，但螺纹累库速度相比往年偏慢；而钢材出口受出口许可证下滑，海 外制造业陆续结束补库，热卷库存快速累积，目前钢坯及板材库存水平偏高，需求压 力大，品种间表现螺纹强于热卷。节前钢厂原料补库告一段落，今年冬储积极性不 足。目前钢材库存偏高，节后资本支出可能不及预期，需求恢复情况有待观望，钢厂 的悲观预期也可能使今年铁水产量高度有限， ...

Group 1: Molybdenum Market Overview - The domestic molybdenum market experienced a positive start after the holiday, with most product prices significantly increasing. Molybdenum concentrate prices rose by approximately 80 yuan/ton, molybdenum iron prices increased by about 5,000 yuan/ton, and molybdenum powder prices went up by around 5 yuan/kg [1][4]. - Key factors influencing the molybdenum market include a reduction in molybdenum product imports during the Spring Festival and a decrease in production from domestic manufacturers, both contributing to rising prices. Additionally, international molybdenum prices fluctuated significantly during the holiday period [1][4]. Group 2: Steel Inventory Data - According to the China Iron and Steel Association, the steel inventory of key statistical steel enterprises reached 15.11 million tons in early February 2026, an increase of 400,000 tons (2.7%) compared to the previous period, and a rise of 970,000 tons (6.9%) since the beginning of the year [2][5]. - Year-on-year comparisons show a decrease of 1.1 million tons (6.8%) compared to the same period last year, and a reduction of 1.02 million tons (6.3%) compared to two years ago. Regionally, steel inventories increased in Northeast (350,000 tons), Northwest (40,000 tons), Southwest (30,000 tons), and Central South (240,000 tons) regions, while inventories decreased in North China (160,000 tons) and East China (110,000 tons) [2][6].

节后黑色观点综述 品种观点 ◆ 钢材 长假期间，唐山迁安普方坯价格持稳，报价 2900 元/吨。消息面上，美 国时间 2 月 20 日，最高法院裁定特朗普根据旨在应对国家紧急状态的法 律所推行的大规模关税无效，随后特朗普在新闻发布会上表示，将对全 球商品加征 10%的进口关税，为期 150 天，以代替被判定违法的紧急关 税，随后在 21 日进一步将税率水平提高至 15%。此次被最高法院砍掉 的对华关税，一共两项，包括"10%对等关税"、"10%芬太尼关税"， 合计 20 个百分点，可以简单概括为先砍 20%再加 15%，我国输美商品 关税负担下降，不过特朗普同时发文强调"第 232 条和第 301 条征收的 关税将继续有效"，表明美国对钢铁、铝行业将依然保持较高的关税壁 垒。整体来看，短期关税降了，但关税博弈远没结束。就基本面而言， 估值方面，螺纹钢期货价格已经跌至电炉谷电与长流程成本以下，静态 估值偏低；驱动方面，宏观端，短期国内处于政策真空期，预计海外关 税政策提振有限，节后重点关注钢材库存增幅，是否超预期累积，我们 估算节后钢材库存处于近年农历同期偏低水平，不过略高于去年同期， 另外关注节后需求恢复进度 ...

2月14日，据中国钢铁工业协会消息，2026年2月上旬，重点统计钢铁企业钢材库存量1511万吨，环比上 一旬增加40万吨，增长2.7%；比年初增加97万吨，增长6.9%；比上月同旬增加7万吨，增长0.5%；比去 年同旬减少110万吨，下降6.8%，比前年同旬减少102万吨，下降6.3%。 （来源：财闻） 环比上一旬增加40万吨，增长2.7%。 ...

其中，建筑钢材库存总量为381.90万吨，较上周增加44.45万吨（+13.17%)，包含30个城市，共计79个仓 库。热卷库存总量为223.81万吨，较上周增加12.98万吨（+6.16%)，包含15个城市，共计47个仓库。中 厚板库存总量为74.80万吨，较上周增加1.80万吨（+2.47%)，包含9个城市，共计14个仓库冷轧涂镀库存 总量为118.80万吨，较上周增加0.30万吨（+0.25%)，包含5个城市，共计14个仓库。 新华财经北京2月9日电钢银电商最新数据显示，截至2月9日当周，全国38个城市，共计135个仓库的城 市钢材总库存量为799.31万吨，较上周环比增加59.53万吨，增幅8.05%。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of steel have weakened marginally. Currently, the five major steel products are reducing production, but hot metal production is still increasing. Steel mills are entering the holiday shutdown and maintenance mode. Steel inventory is accumulating at an accelerated pace, with rebar inventory accumulating faster than hot - rolled coil, and the overall social inventory pressure is greater than that of the mill inventory. The demand for building materials has declined rapidly due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has also decreased due to factors such as a decline in export licenses and the end of the restocking phase in overseas manufacturing. It is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate following macro - economic sentiment before the holiday. However, the high steel inventory, potential lower - than - expected post - holiday capital expenditure, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the increase in hot metal production this year and put pressure on raw materials [7]. - The trading strategies suggest that the steel market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. For arbitrage, it is recommended to short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal. For options, it is advisable to wait and see [9]. 3. Summary by Chapters Chapter 1: Steel Market Summary and Outlook Summary - **Supply**: This week, the small - sample production of rebar was 191.68 tons (a decrease of 8.15 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 309.16 tons (a decrease of 0.05 tons). The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (an increase of 0.6 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 16.9% (a decrease of 15.8%). The cost of electric arc furnaces has increased, leading to a decline in profits and a significant drop in capacity utilization. Long - process steel mills are still profitable, but the enthusiasm for increasing production is limited [4]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 147.64 tons (a decrease of 28.76 tons), and that for hot - rolled coil was 305.54 tons (a decrease of 5.87 tons). The demand for building materials has decreased due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns. The demand for hot - rolled coils has also declined as overseas manufacturing enters the off - season. The investment in domestic fixed assets has a lack of incremental projects, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend. The manufacturing PMI in January showed a decline, and the production and sales data of some industries such as automobiles and white goods also showed different trends [4]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 44.04 tons (4.52 tons in mill inventory and 39.52 tons in social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.62 tons (1.50 tons in mill inventory and 2.12 tons in social inventory), and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 59.24 tons [4]. - **Outlook**: It is expected that steel prices will maintain a volatile trend following macro - economic sentiment before the holiday. However, the high inventory, potential lower - than - expected post - holiday capital expenditure, and the pessimistic expectations of steel mills may limit the increase in hot metal production this year and put pressure on raw materials. Attention should be paid to the resumption rhythm of coal mines, hot metal production, downstream demand performance, overseas tariffs, and domestic macro and industrial policies [7]. - **Trading Strategies**: The steel market will maintain a weak and volatile trend. For arbitrage, short the spread between hot - rolled coil and rebar at high prices and continue to hold the short position of the ratio of hot - rolled coil to coking coal. For options, wait and see [9]. Chapter 2: Price and Profit Review Summary - **Spot Prices**: On Friday, the aggregated price of rebar in Shanghai was 3220 yuan (a decrease of 30 yuan), and in Beijing was 3130 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan). The price of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai was 3250 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan), and in Tianjin (Hebei Steel) was 3160 yuan (a decrease of 20 yuan) [13]. - **Profit**: The flat - rate electricity profit of electric arc furnaces in East China was - 234.68 yuan (a decrease of 83 yuan), and the off - peak electricity profit was - 70 yuan (a decrease of 83 yuan). The long - process steel mills still had profits, but the short - process steel mills' profits were under pressure [32]. Chapter 3: Important Domestic and International Macroeconomic Data Summary - **International**: The US ISM manufacturing PMI in January reached 52.6, a new high since August 2022. The eurozone's CPI in January increased by only 1.7% year - on - year, the lowest since September 2024, and the core CPI dropped to 2.2%, the lowest since October 2021. Indonesia plans to cut coal production and may impose export tariffs in 2026 [34]. - **Domestic**: In December, the new social financing was 22075 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 22.64%. The new RMB loans were 9100 billion yuan. The investment in fixed assets from January to December 2025 decreased by 3.80% year - on - year, with a significant decline in real estate, infrastructure, and manufacturing investment. The real estate market data such as new construction, completion, and sales still showed negative growth, and the willingness of residents to buy houses was insufficient [41]. Chapter 4: Steel Supply, Demand, and Inventory Situation Summary - **Supply**: The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills was 228.58 tons (an increase of 0.6 tons), and the capacity utilization rate of 49 independent electric arc furnace steel mills was 16.9% (a decrease of 15.8%). The small - sample production of rebar was 191.68 tons (a decrease of 8.15 tons), and that of hot - rolled coil was 309.16 tons (a decrease of 0.05 tons) [59][65]. - **Demand**: The apparent demand for small - sample rebar was 147.64 tons (a decrease of 28.76 tons), and that for hot - rolled coil was 305.54 tons (a decrease of 5.87 tons). The demand for building materials has decreased due to cold weather and construction site shutdowns, and the demand for hot - rolled coils has also declined as overseas manufacturing enters the off - season. The investment in domestic fixed assets has a lack of incremental projects, and the real estate market is still in a downward trend [68]. - **Inventory**: Rebar inventory increased by 44.04 tons (4.52 tons in mill inventory and 39.52 tons in social inventory), hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 3.62 tons (1.50 tons in mill inventory and 2.12 tons in social inventory), and the total inventory of the five major steel products increased by 59.24 tons [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View The market sentiment of hot-rolled coil plates resonates, showing a weak and volatile trend [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - 1/29 Steel Union weekly data: For production, rebar increased by 0.28 tons, hot-rolled coil by 3.8 tons, and the total of five major varieties by 3.58 tons; for inventory, rebar increased by 23.43 tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 2.2 tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 21.43 tons; for apparent demand, rebar decreased by 9.12 tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 1.45 tons, and the total decreased by 7.78 tons [2][3] - In December, among key statistical enterprises, the output of medium and heavy plate mills increased year-on-year, while the output of hot continuous rolling mills and cold continuous rolling mills decreased year-on-year. Among major plate varieties, the output of shipbuilding plates, household appliance plates, and engineering machinery steel plates increased significantly year-on-year; the output of container plates and wind power steel plates decreased significantly year-on-year. In terms of product prices, except for medium and heavy wide steel strips, which increased month-on-month, other product prices decreased [3] - From January 1 - 12, the cumulative output of medium and heavy plate mills and cold continuous rolling mills increased year-on-year, while the cumulative output of hot continuous rolling mills remained flat year-on-year. Among major plate varieties, the cumulative output of shipbuilding plates increased significantly year-on-year; the output of container plates decreased significantly year-on-year [3] - In mid-January 2026, key statistical steel enterprises produced 19.79 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.979 million tons, a 0.9% decrease in daily output month-on-month; 17.94 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 1.794 million tons, a 1.8% increase in daily output month-on-month; 18.77 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 1.877 million tons, a 3.0% increase in daily output month-on-month. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 16.13 million tons, a 7.3% increase from the previous ten-day period, a 14.1% increase from the beginning of the year, a 0.8% increase from the same ten-day period of the previous month, a 24.7% increase from the same ten-day period of last year, and a 5.1% increase from the same ten-day period of the year before last [3] - In mid-January, the social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 7.09 million tons, a 0.3% decrease from the previous month, a 1.7% decrease from the beginning of the year, and a 5.2% increase from the same period of last year [3] - BHP Billiton announced that its first-half iron ore output reached a record high, and it has accepted a partial reduction in iron ore prices in the annual contract negotiation with China [3] - On January 19, a 650m³ saturated water and steam spherical tank in the steelmaking operation department of Baotou Baogang Plate Mill exploded, damaging some plants and equipment, which will affect the production of the plate mill production line and the surrounding affected production lines [3] - According to customs statistics, in December 2025, China imported 517,000 tons of steel, a 4.2% increase from the previous month; the average price was $1,810.3 per ton, an 11.0% increase from the previous month. From January - December, the cumulative steel imports were 6.059 million tons, an 11.1% decrease from the previous year [4] - The Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs: Implement export license management for some steel products [4] 3.2 Trend Intensity - Rebar trend intensity: 0; Hot-rolled coil plate trend intensity: 0. The trend intensity ranges from -2 to 2, with -2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4]

新华财经北京2月2日电钢银电商最新公布的数据显示，截至2月2日的一周，全国38个城市，共计135个 仓库的城市钢材总库存量为739.78万吨，较上周增加29.06万吨，增幅4.09%。 其中，建筑钢材库存总量为337.45万吨，较上周环比增加21.37万吨（+6.76%)，包含30个城市，共计79 个仓库。热卷库存总量为210.83万吨，较上周环比增加5.63万吨（+2.74%)，包含15个城市，共计47个仓 库。中厚板库存总量73.00万吨，较上周环比增加2.32万吨（+3.28%)，包含9个城市，共计14个仓库。冷 轧涂镀库存总量为118.50万吨，较上周环比减少0.26万吨（-0.22%)，包含5个城市，共计14个仓库。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

2026 年 1 月 30 日 螺纹钢：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复 热轧卷板：原料端情绪推涨，震荡反复 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | （元/吨） 昨日收盘价 | 涨跌 （元/吨） | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2605 | 3,157 | 35 | 1.12 | | 货 期 | HC2605 | 3,308 | 26 | 0.79 | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2605 | 1,026,450 | 1,785,380 | 40,974 | | | HC2605 | 434,547 昨日价格 （元/吨） | 1,547,118 前日价格 （元/吨） | 29,468 涨跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3260 | 3240 | 20 | | | 杭州 | 3300 | 32 ...