Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints No clear core viewpoints are presented in the given content. 3. Summaries Based on Related Catalogs 3.1 [Fundamental Tracking] - **Futures Data**: For RB2601, the closing price was 3,167 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton (0.32%); trading volume was 883,015 lots, and the position decreased by 11,775 lots to 1,870,449 lots. For HC2601, the closing price was 3,358 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (0.24%); trading volume was 337,428 lots, and the position increased by 1,955 lots to 1,369,716 lots [2]. - **Spot Price**: In Shanghai, the spot price of rebar was 3,290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Hangzhou, it was 3,340 yuan/ton, unchanged. For hot - rolled coils, in Shanghai, the price was 3,400 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Hangzhou, it was 3,420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Tangshan billet was 3,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2601 was 123 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton; the basis of HC2601 was 42 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton. The spread of RB2601 - RB2605 was - 58 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton; the spread of HC2601 - HC2605 was 36 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 [Macro and Industry News] - **Steel Union Weekly Data (September 25)**: Rebar production increased by 0.01 million tons, hot - rolled coil production decreased by 2.3 million tons, and the total production of five major varieties increased by 9.47 million tons. Rebar inventory decreased by 13.98 million tons, hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 2.51 million tons, and the total inventory of five major varieties decreased by 9.13 million tons. Rebar apparent demand increased by 10.41 million tons, hot - rolled coil apparent demand decreased by 0.14 million tons, and the total apparent demand of five major varieties increased by 23.73 million tons [3]. - **Social Inventory in Mid - September**: The social inventory of five major steel products in 21 cities was 941 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 21 million tons (2.3%), and a year - on - year increase of 129 million tons (15.9%) [3][4]. - **National Steel Production in August**: The national production of crude steel was 7,737 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7%; pig iron production was 6,979 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.0%; steel production was 12,277 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.7% [4]. - **National Economic Data (January - August)**: The added value of large - scale industries increased by 6.2% year - on - year; fixed - asset investment increased by 0.5% year - on - year; social consumer goods retail sales increased by 4.6% year - on - year [4]. - **Important Article in 'Qiushi'**: The article emphasizes efforts to rectify low - price disorderly competition among enterprises, government procurement and tendering irregularities, local investment promotion irregularities, promote the integration of domestic and foreign trade, and make up for the short - board of laws and regulations [4]. - **Steel Import and Export in August**: China exported 951.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month decrease of 32.6 million tons (3.3%); imported 50.0 million tons of steel, a month - on - month increase of 4.8 million tons (10.6%) [4]. 3.3 [Trend Intensity] - The trend intensity of rebar and hot - rolled coils is 0, indicating a neutral trend [5].

Core Insights - The China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) released the steel inventory report for key enterprises as of mid-September 2025, indicating a total steel inventory of 15.29 million tons [1] Inventory Analysis - The steel inventory decreased by 530,000 tons compared to the previous reporting period, representing a decline of 3.4% [1] - Year-to-date, the inventory has increased by 2.92 million tons, showing a growth of 23.6% [1] - Compared to the same period last month, the inventory decreased by 380,000 tons, a decline of 2.4% [1] - Year-over-year, the inventory has decreased by 360,000 tons, reflecting a decline of 2.3% [1] - Compared to the same period two years ago, the inventory decreased by 470,000 tons, indicating a decline of 3.0% [1]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - The total inventory of steel materials in 38 cities across the country has decreased for the first time in two months, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1][3]. Inventory Data - The total steel inventory across 135 warehouses is 9.3375 million tons, a decrease of 54,300 tons or 0.58% compared to the previous week [1]. - The inventory of construction steel is 5.1839 million tons, down by 86,000 tons or 1.63% from the previous week, covering 30 cities and 79 warehouses [2]. - Hot-rolled coil inventory increased to 2.2459 million tons, up by 38,500 tons or 1.74%, across 15 cities and 47 warehouses [2]. - Medium and heavy plate inventory stands at 672,300 tons, a decrease of 6,300 tons or 0.93%, from 9 cities and 14 warehouses [2]. - Cold-rolled and coated inventory is 1.2354 million tons, down by 500 tons or 0.04%, from 5 cities and 14 warehouses [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report The steel market presents a complex situation with different trends for different steel products. The supply - demand contradiction in rebar is accumulating, while that in hot - rolled coils is alleviating. The overall steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamentals' contradictions are still building up. It is recommended to focus on the strategy of going long on hot - rolled coils and short on rebar. [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Demand - Rebar apparent demand is 1.9807 million tons (-4), a year - on - year decrease of 20.76%. Hot - rolled coil apparent demand is 3.2616 million tons (+20.8), a year - on - year increase of 3.23%. The apparent demand for the five major steel products is 8.4333 million tons (+15.5), a year - on - year increase of 1.87%. [4] Supply - Rebar production is 2.1193 million tons (-6.75), a year - on - year decrease of 3.09%. Hot - rolled coil production is 3.2514 million tons (+10.9), a year - on - year increase of 3.47%. The production of the five major steel products is 8.6724 million tons (-3.41), a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. [4] Inventory - Rebar inventory is 6.5386 million tons (+13.86), a year - on - year increase of 2.17%. Hot - rolled coil inventory is 3.7332 million tons (-1.02), a year - on - year decrease of 0.27%. The inventory of the five major steel products is 15.1461 million tons (+13.91), a year - on - year increase of 0.93%. [4] Market Analysis - For rebar, due to high profits and the operation of electric - arc furnace profits, some mills stopped production, and the decline in rebar production has widened this week. Rebar demand decreased month - on - month, and the peak - season characteristics have not yet appeared. The supply - demand contradiction continues to accumulate, especially in Hangzhou where the inventory pressure is more obvious due to the inflow of external rebar resources. - For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand have returned to the level before the military parade. The downstream sentiment has improved, and the inventory shows a de - stocking trend, with the supply - demand contradiction gradually alleviating. - For the five major steel products, the inventory is still accumulating, but the inventory - building speed has slowed down. The steel inventory is at a moderately high level, and the fundamental contradictions are still building up, with the rebar fundamentals being weaker than those of hot - rolled coils. The market is still uncertain about the peak - season demand level. However, since the hot - metal production has returned to a relatively high level before the military parade, the probability of negative feedback is limited. There may be phased replenishment demand before the weekend, which may support the futures prices, but it is expected that the performance of rebar will still be weaker than that of hot - rolled coils. [4]

Report Investment Ratings - Thread: ★★★, indicating a clearer long trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Hot-rolled steel: ☆☆☆, suggesting that the short-term long/short trend is in a relatively balanced state, with poor operability on the current market, and it's advisable to wait and see [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆, similar to hot-rolled steel, short-term trend is balanced and operability is poor [1] - Coke: ★☆☆, representing a bullish bias, with a driving force for price increase but limited operability on the market [1] - Coking coal: ★☆☆, also bullish with limited market operability [1] - Silicon iron: ☆☆☆, short-term trend balanced and hard to operate [1] Core Views - The steel market is facing potential negative feedback pressure due to weak downstream demand, with the steel plate expected to oscillate weakly in the short term [2] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level, supported by high iron water demand and potential policy benefits [3] - Coke and coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with prices having large volatility [4][6] - Silicon manganese and silicon iron prices are also influenced by policies, and their supply and demand are in a dynamic balance [7][8] Summary by Category Steel - Thread table demand and production continue to decline, inventory accumulates, while hot-rolled demand recovers, production increases, and inventory slightly drops [2] - The overall domestic demand for steel is weak, with real estate investment falling sharply and infrastructure and manufacturing growth slowing down, but steel exports remain high [2] - The steel plate has insufficient rebound momentum and is expected to oscillate weakly in the short term, with cost support at the bottom [2] Iron Ore - Global iron ore shipments decline significantly, domestic arrivals decrease slightly, and port inventories stabilize and rebound [3] - Terminal demand rises slightly, and there is a strong expectation of iron water production recovery this week, along with pre-holiday restocking demand from steel mills [3] - Iron ore is expected to oscillate at a high level due to policy benefits and market speculation [3] Coke - The second round of coke price cuts is in progress, and the coking production decreases slightly [4] - Coke inventory rises, and traders' purchasing willingness declines [4] - Coke prices are expected to oscillate strongly due to market sentiment and policy expectations [4] Coking Coal - Coking coal production increases due to the end of the military parade, and spot auction transactions weaken [6] - Coking coal inventory decreases overall, with production-side inventory slightly increasing [6] - Coking coal prices are affected by market sentiment and policy expectations, with large volatility [6] Silicon Manganese - The price of silicon manganese weakens, and attention is paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [7] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon manganese production continues to increase [7] - Manganese ore prices are expected to rise, and long-term manganese ore inventory is likely to accumulate [7] Silicon Iron - The price of silicon iron weakens, and attention is also paid to the tender price of a large northern steel mill [8] - The short-term decline in iron water production has little impact, and silicon iron supply recovers significantly [8] - Silicon iron inventory decreases slightly, and the market pays attention to policy continuity [8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the inventory levels of steel materials in key enterprises as reported by the China Iron and Steel Association for late August 2025 [1][3] Group 2 - As of late August 2025, the inventory of steel materials in key statistical steel enterprises reached 14.98 million tons, a decrease of 690,000 tons or 4.4% compared to the previous period [1] - Compared to the beginning of the year, the inventory increased by 2.61 million tons, reflecting a growth of 21.1% [1] - The inventory also saw an increase of 200,000 tons or 1.4% compared to the same period last month [1] - Year-on-year, the inventory rose by 440,000 tons, marking a 3.0% increase compared to the same period last year [1] - Additionally, the inventory increased by 260,000 tons or 1.8% compared to the same period two years ago [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The inventory of rebar and hot-rolled coil is accumulating too quickly, and steel prices are fluctuating and correcting [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Catalog 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing prices of RB2510 and HC2510 were 3,047 yuan/ton and 3,310 yuan/ton respectively, with daily declines of -0.49% and -0.48%. The trading volumes were 244,899 lots and 124,871 lots, and the positions were 807,407 lots and 546,834 lots, with position changes of -52,001 lots and -27,387 lots [1] - **Spot Price**: Rebar prices in Shanghai and Beijing decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in Hangzhou and Guangzhou remained unchanged. Hot-rolled coil prices in Tianjin decreased by 10 yuan/ton, while those in other regions remained unchanged. The price of Tangshan billet remained unchanged at 2950 yuan/ton [1] - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of RB2510 decreased by 18 yuan/ton, while that of HC2510 increased by 10 yuan/ton. The spreads of RB2510 - RB2601, HC2510 - HC2601, HC2510 - RB2510, HC2601 - RB2601, and the spot coil-to-rebar spread changed by 6 yuan/ton, -5 yuan/ton, -18 yuan/ton, -7 yuan/ton, and 10 yuan/ton respectively [1] 2. Macro and Industry News - **Export Data**: In July 2025, China exported 983.6 million tons of steel, a slight increase of 1.6% from the previous month, with an average export price of 702.2 US dollars/ton, a slight increase of 2.2% from the previous month. From January to July, the cumulative steel exports were 6798.3 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.0%, and the average export price was 699.7 US dollars/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 10.3% [2] - **Weekly Data on August 28**: In terms of production, rebar increased by 5.91 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 0.5 million tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 6.55 million tons. In terms of inventory, rebar increased by 16.35 million tons, hot-rolled coil increased by 4.02 million tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 26.84 million tons. In terms of apparent demand, rebar increased by 9.41 million tons, hot-rolled coil decreased by 0.55 million tons, and the total of five major varieties increased by 4.78 million tons [2][3] - **Mid - August Data**: In mid - August 2025, key steel enterprises produced 2115 million tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 211.5 million tons, a daily increase of 2.0%; 1924 million tons of pig iron, with an average daily output of 192.4 million tons, a daily increase of 0.5%; 2049 million tons of steel, with an average daily output of 204.9 million tons, a daily increase of 2.2%. The steel inventory of key enterprises was 1567 million tons, a 4.0% increase from the previous ten - day period [3] - **Other Data**: The manufacturing supply index (MMSI) in July was 146.13, a month - on - month decrease of 4.83%. From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 13.5839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1% [2][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of rebar and hot-rolled coil is 0, indicating a neutral trend [3][4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights an increase in the total inventory of steel materials across 38 cities in China, with a week-on-week rise of 34.99 million tons, reaching a total of 889.16 million tons, representing a growth of 4.10% [1] Group 2 - The total inventory of construction steel reached 490.84 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 26.65 million tons (+5.74%) [1] - The total inventory of hot-rolled steel was 209.96 million tons, increasing by 5.62 million tons (+2.75%) compared to the previous week [1] - The inventory of medium and heavy plates totaled 67.21 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 1.06 million tons (+1.60%) [1] - The inventory of cold-rolled and coated steel reached 121.15 million tons, with an increase of 1.66 million tons (+1.39%) from the previous week [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase of coke in China is supported by tight fundamentals, but the demand for steel is weakening due to seasonal factors, which may slow down the pace of future price increases [1][5][7] Group 1: Coke Price Trends - Since mid-July, domestic coke prices have experienced seven consecutive rounds of increases, with the fundamentals supporting this trend [1] - As of August 21, the average operating load of major independent coke plants in China was 74.65%, slightly down by 0.13 percentage points from the previous week but up by 0.61 percentage points from the previous month [1] - Coke inventory at major coke plants dropped to 27.6 million tons, a decrease of 2.8 million tons or 9.21% from the previous month, marking the second-lowest level of the year [1] Group 2: Steel Demand and Inventory - The demand for steel has weakened significantly since mid-July due to high temperatures and rainy weather, leading to an increase in social inventory of steel products [5] - As of August 21, the social inventory of rebar reached 5.945 million tons, marking the seventh consecutive week of accumulation [5] - The average inventory of rebar in August was 5.63 days, down 0.57 days from the previous month, indicating the lowest level for the year [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Despite the recovery of coke profits and increased production in Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, production cuts in Shandong, Hebei, and Henan have kept overall coke supply from increasing significantly [1][3] - The passive decline in steel mills' coke inventory is attributed to increased consumption driven by stable high furnace iron production [3] - The ongoing weak demand for steel and declining profits for steel mills are expected to reduce their acceptance of raw material price increases, leading to a slowdown in the pace of coke price hikes [5][7]

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing a decline in prices due to weak demand and increased inventory levels, with significant variations in the performance of different steel products [1][2][6]. Supply - Iron element production increased by 18 million tons year-on-year, a growth rate of 3.1%. In August, production rebounded compared to July, primarily due to a notable increase in scrap steel consumption [3]. - The production of five major steel products rose by 64,000 tons to 8.78 million tons, with rebar production decreasing by 58,000 tons to 2.15 million tons, while hot-rolled coil production increased by 96,000 tons to 3.25 million tons [3]. Demand - From January to July, the apparent demand for the five major steel products remained flat year-on-year, with a slight decrease of 0.2%, while production fell by 1.3% [4]. - Domestic demand decreased year-on-year, but external demand increased significantly, leading to an overall increase in steel demand despite a seasonal decline [4]. Inventory - There has been a significant accumulation of inventory, primarily among traders, with the total inventory of the five major steel products increasing by 250,000 tons to 14.41 million tons [5]. - Rebar inventory rose by 200,000 tons to 6.07 million tons, indicating a mismatch between supply and demand [5]. Price Trends - The steel market sentiment has weakened, leading to a decline in steel prices, with rebar prices falling more than hot-rolled coil prices due to a noticeable drop in demand for rebar [6]. - The price difference between rebar and hot-rolled coil has narrowed, indicating a shift in market dynamics [6].