假期累库明显，钢价承压回落 ——周报20260224 投 资 咨 询 编 号 ：Z0020978 研 究 所 ：林娜 联 系 方 式 ：0371-58620083 电 子 邮 箱 ：linna_qh@ccnew.com 执 业 证 书 编 号 ：F03099603 | 本期观点——螺纹钢、热卷 品种 | 主要逻辑 | 策略建议 | 风险点 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 供应：螺纹钢周产量170.38万吨（环比-4.08%，同比+4.29%），全国热卷周产量 | | | | | 309.81万吨（环比+0.67%，同比-5.50%）。 | | | | | 消费：螺纹钢表观消费41.16万吨（环比-59.61%，同比-75.59%），热卷表观消 | | | | | 费246.73万吨（环比-16.70%，同比-23.58%）。 | | | | | 库存：螺纹总库存716.04万吨（环比+22.02%，同比-15.53%），热卷总库存 | | | | | 433.85万吨（环比+17.01%，同比-0.17%）。 | | | | 螺纹 | 成本：铁水日产230.49万吨，同比去年回 ...

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75% on February 10, with predictions of further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2 - The inventory of major steel materials decreased by 2.45% to 13.32 million tons, the lowest since the Spring Festival this year, with production down by 2.74% to 8.06 million tons and apparent demand falling to 8.40 million tons, marking a 2.83% decline [3] - Rebar weekly production decreased by 5.56%, with inventory dropping by 4.81% and demand falling by 6.4%; wire rod demand decline narrowed to 3.94%; hot-rolled demand decline also narrowed to 0.92%, with inventory increasing by 5.14%; medium and heavy plate demand fell by over 4%, while cold-rolled demand increased by 2.54% with production up by 0.92% [3] - The current steel industry data indicates a weak supply-demand balance, with accelerated production cuts in rebar improving the supply-demand relationship, while hot-rolled data remains stable with high inventory pressure [3] - Overall, the market outlook suggests a low-level fluctuation in steel prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is oscillating weakly [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of steel remain weak, and steel prices are oscillating. The output of building materials continues to decline, the inventory accumulation rate is higher than in previous years, the downstream replenishment demand is significantly weakened, the demand shows no obvious improvement, and the peak - season demand is limited. The profit of plate mills does not strongly drive production cuts, and the inventory of plates has increased significantly during holidays. In the short term, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the main contract 2601 of rebar closed at 3,103 yuan/ton, and the main contract 2601 of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,285 yuan/ton [1][4] Supply - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 2.4154 million tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from last week and an increase of 84,600 tons compared with last year. The actual output of the five major steel products this period was 8.6331 million tons, a decrease of 37,600 tons from the previous period. Among them, the rebar output was 2.034 million tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons from the previous period; the hot - rolled coil output was 3.2329 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period [1][21] Consumption - According to Mysteel data, the total apparent demand for the five major steel products this period was 7.3545 million tons, a decrease of 1.6937 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar was 1.4601 million tons, a decrease of 950,600 tons from the previous period; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 2.9009 million tons, a decrease of 336,400 tons from the previous period [1][24] Inventory - According to Mysteel data, the total inventory of the five major steel products this week reached 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons from the previous week. The rebar inventory this week was 6.5964 million tons, a weekly increase of 573,900 tons; the total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.129 million tons, a weekly increase of 190,200 tons [1][29] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. In the short term, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend. Pay attention to the inventory situation after the holiday and the support of raw material costs. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]