1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The steel price is under pressure and weak in the short - term due to the significant inventory build - up during the holiday, with production and demand of rebar both decreasing (demand dropping more significantly), and the demand for hot - rolled coils also falling while production remains stable. In the medium - term, the steel price is expected to first fall and then rise [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - In the last week before the holiday, the spot market was inactive with most quotes stable. The fundamentals showed seasonal inventory build - up, demand gradually stagnated, futures funds were eager to leave the market, prices declined overall, and the basis widened [9]. - Specific price and inventory data: For example, the price of rebar HRB400E 20MM in Shanghai was 3220 yuan/ton with no change; the price of imported iron ore (PB powder 61.5%, Australia) at Qingdao Port decreased by 11 yuan/wet ton to 756 yuan/wet ton. Rebar total inventory increased by 129 tons to 716.04 tons, and hot - rolled coil total inventory increased by 63 tons to 433.85 tons [9]. 3.2 Steel Supply and Demand Analysis Supply - Rebar weekly production was 170.38 tons (a 4.08% decrease from the previous week and a 4.29% increase year - on - year), and the national hot - rolled coil weekly production was 309.81 tons (a 0.67% increase from the previous week and a 5.50% decrease year - on - year) [3][15]. - Rebar blast furnace production increased while electric furnace production decreased. Blast furnace weekly production was 167.78 tons (a 3.85% increase from the previous week and a 3.94% decrease year - on - year), and electric furnace weekly production was 2.6 tons (a 65.79% decrease from the previous week and an 88.31% decrease year - on - year) [16][18]. - The blast furnace operating rate increased slightly, while the electric furnace operating rate during the holiday dropped significantly. The national blast furnace operating rate was 80.13% (a 0.75% increase from the previous week and a 2.76% increase year - on - year), and the electric furnace operating rate was 9.85% (a 65.15% decrease from the previous week and an 81.57% decrease year - on - year) [19][23]. - The profits of rebar and hot - rolled coils were slightly repaired. Rebar profit was + 80 yuan/ton (a 15 - yuan increase from the previous week and a 15 - yuan decrease year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil profit was + 11 yuan/ton (a 9 - yuan increase from the previous week and a 4 - yuan decrease year - on - year) [24][26]. Demand - The demand for rebar and hot - rolled coils dropped significantly during the holiday. Rebar apparent consumption was 41.16 tons (a 59.61% decrease from the previous week and a 75.59% decrease year - on - year), the 5 - day average of national building materials transactions was 3.49 tons (a 51.40% decrease from the previous week and a 68.52% decrease year - on - year), and hot - rolled coil apparent consumption was 246.73 tons (a 16.70% decrease from the previous week and a 23.58% decrease year - on - year) [31]. Inventory - Rebar inventory increased seasonally, with the increase in factory and social inventories expanding. Rebar factory inventory was 221.07 tons (a 35.14% increase from the previous week and a 7.73% decrease year - on - year), social inventory was 494.97 tons (a 16.95% increase from the previous week and an 18.90% decrease year - on - year), and total inventory was 716.04 tons (a 22.02% increase from the previous week and a 15.53% decrease year - on - year) [32][36]. - Hot - rolled coil inventory increased significantly, and social inventory was at a high level in the same period of history. Hot - rolled coil factory inventory was 93.38 tons (a 16.94% increase from the previous week and a 1.00% decrease year - on - year), social inventory was 340.47 tons (a 17.03% increase from the previous week and a 1.01% decrease year - on - year), and total inventory was 433.85 tons (a 17.01% increase from the previous week and a 0.17% decrease year - on - year) [37][40]. Downstream Industries - In the real estate industry, due to holiday factors, the transactions in the commercial housing and land markets decreased significantly on a week - on - week basis. The weekly commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 92.46% week - on - week and 94.56% year - on - year, and the transaction land area in 100 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 99.33% week - on - week and 99.32% year - on - year [41][43]. - In the automotive industry, in January 2026, automobile production increased slightly year - on - year, while sales decreased year - on - year. Automobile production and sales were 2.45 million and 2.346 million respectively, with production increasing by 0.01% year - on - year and sales decreasing by 3.2% year - on - year. Among them, new - energy vehicle production and sales were 1.041 million and 0.945 million respectively, increasing by 2.5% and 0.1% year - on - year. In January, automobile exports were 681,000, a 44.9% increase year - on - year, and new - energy vehicle exports were 302,000, a 100% increase year - on - year [44][46]. 3.3 Spread Analysis - The basis of hot - rolled coils widened, and the 5 - 10 spread of rebar and hot - rolled coils widened slightly [48]. - The coil - to - rebar spread contracted slightly, and the 5 - 9 spread of iron ore contracted slightly [53].

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve announced a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate target range to 3.5%-3.75% on February 10, with predictions of further rate cuts in 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 2 - The inventory of major steel materials decreased by 2.45% to 13.32 million tons, the lowest since the Spring Festival this year, with production down by 2.74% to 8.06 million tons and apparent demand falling to 8.40 million tons, marking a 2.83% decline [3] - Rebar weekly production decreased by 5.56%, with inventory dropping by 4.81% and demand falling by 6.4%; wire rod demand decline narrowed to 3.94%; hot-rolled demand decline also narrowed to 0.92%, with inventory increasing by 5.14%; medium and heavy plate demand fell by over 4%, while cold-rolled demand increased by 2.54% with production up by 0.92% [3] - The current steel industry data indicates a weak supply-demand balance, with accelerated production cuts in rebar improving the supply-demand relationship, while hot-rolled data remains stable with high inventory pressure [3] - Overall, the market outlook suggests a low-level fluctuation in steel prices [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The unilateral investment rating is oscillating weakly [2] Core Viewpoints - The supply and demand of steel remain weak, and steel prices are oscillating. The output of building materials continues to decline, the inventory accumulation rate is higher than in previous years, the downstream replenishment demand is significantly weakened, the demand shows no obvious improvement, and the peak - season demand is limited. The profit of plate mills does not strongly drive production cuts, and the inventory of plates has increased significantly during holidays. In the short term, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend [1][2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - As of the close this Friday, the main contract 2601 of rebar closed at 3,103 yuan/ton, and the main contract 2601 of hot - rolled coil closed at 3,285 yuan/ton [1][4] Supply - The average daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills surveyed by Mysteel was 2.4154 million tons, a decrease of 2,700 tons from last week and an increase of 84,600 tons compared with last year. The actual output of the five major steel products this period was 8.6331 million tons, a decrease of 37,600 tons from the previous period. Among them, the rebar output was 2.034 million tons, a decrease of 36,200 tons from the previous period; the hot - rolled coil output was 3.2329 million tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from the previous period [1][21] Consumption - According to Mysteel data, the total apparent demand for the five major steel products this period was 7.3545 million tons, a decrease of 1.6937 million tons from the previous period. Among them, the apparent demand for rebar was 1.4601 million tons, a decrease of 950,600 tons from the previous period; the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil was 2.9009 million tons, a decrease of 336,400 tons from the previous period [1][24] Inventory - According to Mysteel data, the total inventory of the five major steel products this week reached 16.0072 million tons, an increase of 1.2786 million tons from the previous week. The rebar inventory this week was 6.5964 million tons, a weekly increase of 573,900 tons; the total inventory of hot - rolled coils was 4.129 million tons, a weekly increase of 190,200 tons [1][29] Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly. In the short term, steel prices will maintain an oscillating and weakly downward trend. Pay attention to the inventory situation after the holiday and the support of raw material costs. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]