Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The main contract price of rebar fluctuated, with a daily decline of 0.03%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. In the current situation of stable supply and weak demand, the fundamentals of rebar are weak, and steel prices continue to face pressure. However, the increase in costs provides some downward resistance. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the demand situation [4]. - The main contract price of hot-rolled coil fluctuated weakly, with a daily decline of 0.44%, and both trading volume and open interest decreased. At present, the concerns about hot-rolled coil demand remain, and the supply is expected to increase. The fundamentals have not substantially improved. The relatively positive factors are the increase in costs and production restrictions. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the production situation of steel mills [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore fluctuated and rebounded, with a daily increase of 0.98%, trading volume decreased and open interest increased. At present, the demand for iron ore has certain resilience, which supports the ore price. However, the supply of ore is high, and the growth space of demand is limited. The fundamentals of ore have not substantially improved, and the upward driving force of the high-valued ore price is not strong. It is expected that the subsequent trend will continue to fluctuate at a high level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished steel [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry Dynamics - In July 2025, the total social electricity consumption was 1022.6 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 8.6%. From January to July, the cumulative total social electricity consumption was 5863.3 billion kWh, a year-on-year increase of 4.5% [6]. - The "Guiding Opinions" require localities to give priority to implementing projects with certain returns, and ensure the completion of projects. For projects close to completion, construction should be accelerated, acceptance and final accounts should be carried out in a timely manner, and they should be put into operation as soon as possible. For slowly progressing projects, measures such as reducing the implementation scale, optimizing construction standards, and adjusting supporting construction content should be studied to reduce unnecessary construction costs. In principle, projects that have not started construction before the end of 2024 should no longer be implemented in the PPP stock project model [7]. - As of August 21, 6 listed steel companies announced their performance in the first half of 2025, with a total operating income of 198.591 billion yuan and a total net profit of 6.755 billion yuan. All 6 companies were profitable [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3270 yuan, 3280 yuan, and 3342 yuan respectively. The spot prices of hot-rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3420 yuan, 3370 yuan, and 3476 yuan respectively. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 3020 yuan, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2120 yuan. The spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar was 150 yuan, and the spread between rebar and scrap was 1150 yuan [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 770 yuan, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 778 yuan. The sea freight from Australia was 9.18 yuan, and from Brazil was 23.73 yuan. The SGX swap price (current month) was 101.26 yuan, and the Platts index (CFR, 62%) was 100.60 yuan [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures contract was 3121 yuan, with a decline of 0.03%, the highest price was 3145 yuan, the lowest price was 3115 yuan, the trading volume was 1125179 lots, a decrease of 192195 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1458111 lots, a decrease of 65281 lots [13]. - The closing price of the hot-rolled coil futures contract was 3375 yuan, with a decline of 0.44%, the highest price was 3417 yuan, the lowest price was 3372 yuan, the trading volume was 572544 lots, a decrease of 46710 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 1047482 lots, a decrease of 76410 lots [13]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures contract was 772.5 yuan, with an increase of 0.98%, the highest price was 780.0 yuan, the lowest price was 770.0 yuan, the trading volume was 281755 lots, a decrease of 7611 lots compared with the previous day, and the open interest was 451574 lots, an increase of 11185 lots [13]. Relevant Charts - The report includes charts of steel inventory (rebar and hot-rolled coil), iron ore inventory (port and steel mill), and steel mill production situation (blast furnace开工率, electric furnace开工率, etc.) [15][20][32]. Market Outlook - The supply-demand pattern of rebar continues to weaken. The production of construction steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of rebar decreased slightly by 0.73 tons. Demand has weakened, and the weekly apparent demand decreased by 20.85 tons. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that steel prices will continue to fluctuate [39]. - The supply-demand pattern of hot-rolled coil has improved. The production of plate steel mills is stable, and the weekly output of hot-rolled coil increased by 0.70 tons. Demand has improved, but the concerns about demand remain, and the supply is expected to increase. It is expected that the price of hot-rolled coil will continue to fluctuate [39]. - The supply-demand pattern of iron ore has weakened. The production of steel mills is stable, and the terminal consumption of ore has increased. However, the supply of ore is increasing. With the game between multiple and short factors, it is expected that the price of iron ore will continue to fluctuate at a high level [40].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the volume and open interest expanded. The supply of rebar continued to rise, while the demand was weakly stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and steel prices were under pressure. However, the inventory inflection point was yet to appear, and the real - world contradictions were limited. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the volume increased while the open interest remained stable. The supply of hot - rolled coil was stable at a high level, while the demand weakened. The fundamental contradictions accumulated, and the price of hot - rolled coil continued to be under pressure and oscillated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the risk of tariffs after the "exemption period" ends [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher, with a daily increase of 0.64%, and the volume increased while the open interest decreased. The demand for iron ore showed some resilience, supporting the ore price. However, the supply remained at a high level, and the demand growth space was limited. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore did not improve substantially, and the ore price continued to be under pressure and oscillated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, the number of new global shipbuilding orders was 73, a decrease of 46 from April 2025. The corrected total tonnage decreased by 63.85% month - on - month and 54.71% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received the most orders, followed by South Korea [6]. - The third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July 2025. The relevant departments will coordinate to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [7]. - The Eurasian Economic Commission decided to continue imposing a 15.50% anti - dumping duty on seamless steel pipes originating from China until June 23, 2030. The announcement will take effect on July 24, 2025 [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,030, 3,160, and 3,190 respectively, with price changes of - 10, - 20, and - 6. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,180, 3,100, and 3,218 respectively, with no price changes. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,910 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 with a - 10 change. The coil - rebar price difference was 150, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 930 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 702 with a + 2 change, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 697 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 8.78, and from Brazil was 22.68. The SGX swap price (current month) was 94.30, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 92.75 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,973, with a 0.10% increase, the highest price was 2,977, the lowest price was 2,952, the trading volume was 1,377,892 with an increase of 16,628, and the open interest was 2,191,778 with an increase of 19,178 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,103, with a 0.39% increase, the highest price was 3,104, the lowest price was 3,080, the trading volume was 552,939 with an increase of 19,514, and the open interest was 1,510,669 with an increase of 263 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 705.5, with a 0.64% increase, the highest price was 707.5, the lowest price was 698.0, the trading volume was 326,475 with an increase of 10,602, and the open interest was 654,225 with a decrease of 17,723 [11]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and inventories of iron ore at ports, steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18][28] - Charts also show the production situation of steel mills, such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate of independent electric furnaces and the profit - loss situation of independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][31][35] Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The weekly output increased by 5.66 tons, and the demand was weakly stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and steel prices were expected to continue to oscillate [36]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern changed. The weekly output increased by 1.79 tons, and the demand weakened. The price was under pressure and oscillated at a low level, and attention should be paid to the tariff risk after the "exemption period" ends [36]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed. The terminal consumption of ore increased slightly, but the supply remained at a high level. The ore price was under pressure and oscillated at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [37]

【现货】 现货跟随期货波动，整体持稳，基差有所走弱。华东螺纹实际成交价-20至2970元每吨。10月合约期货 升水现货11元。华东热卷-10至3190元每吨，主力合约贴水现货100元每吨。 【供应】 产量高位回落走势，铁水回落幅度不大，成品材减产明显。铁水-0.1至241.6万吨，废钢日耗环比-2万吨 至52万吨。本期五大材产量-21.5万吨至859万吨；螺吨至324.6万吨。表外材产量环比下降。高频产量数 据：1-5月铁元素产量累计同比增长1500万吨，日均增长近10万吨。6月产量跟随需求见顶回落，叠加铁 水回流至热卷，热卷产量压力有所抬升。当前减产幅度主要体现在螺纹钢上，热卷暂时减产幅度不大 【库存】 钢材库存临近累库拐点。五大材环比-9万吨至1354万吨，本周螺纹去库较多影响总库存去库，但板材已 经全线转入累库；其中螺纹-12.4万吨至558万吨；热卷+5万吨至345万吨。当前板材（热卷、冷轧和中 厚板）持续累库明显。 【观点】 伊朗以色列冲突，焦煤受原油拉涨影响明显走强，带动钢材在内的黑色金属稍强走势。从伊朗铁元素出 口情况看，并不改变中国钢材供需宽松格局。2024年伊朗粗钢产量3100万吨，出口量在 ...