更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 2 月 25 日星期三 研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 Morning session notice 早盘提示 | | | 钢材: | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 【行情复盘】 | | | | 节后首个交易日螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收涨。 | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | 1、2 月 24 日，商务部数据显示，截至 2 月 22 日，2026 年消费品以旧换新惠及 3053.2 | | | | 万人次，带动销售额 2045.4 亿元。智能、绿色产品需求旺盛，春节假期，重点平 | | | | 台智能眼镜、节水卫浴器具销售额分别增长 47.3%和 23.2%。 | | | | 2、据国际船舶网跟踪：2026 年 2 月 16 日至 2026 年 2 月 22 日，全球船厂共接获 | | | | 18+5 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 9+5 艘新船订单；日本船厂接获 4 艘新船订单； | | | | 芬兰和美国船厂也接获相关新船订 ...

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | | | | 钢材: | 【行情复盘】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 周一螺纹热卷收跌。夜盘收跌。 | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 1、据国际船舶网跟踪：2026 | 年 | 2 | 月 | 2 | 日至 | 2026 | 年 | 2 | 月 | 8 | 日，全球船厂共接获 | 65+2 | 艘新船订单。其中中国船厂接获 | 58 | 艘新船订单；韩国船厂接获 | 7+2 | 艘新船订单。 | | 2、2026 | 年 | 2 | 月 | 6 | 日，巴西发展、工业、贸易和服务部外贸秘书处（Ministério | do | Desenvolvimento, | Indústri ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided about the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The steel market is expected to maintain a volatile trend before the Spring Festival, but prices may fluctuate due to market sentiment. The market sentiment has weakened, with limited upside potential, and it may experience a slight correction in the short - term, maintaining a weak and volatile trend. [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information 3.1.1 Thread Steel - **Futures**: RB05 closed at 3162 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan from the previous day; RB10 at 3210 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan; RB01 at 3143 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan. The 05 - contract thread steel's on - disk profit was - 167 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan; the 10 - contract was - 117 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the 01 - contract was - 97 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan. [2] - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel remained at 3270 yuan/ton. The cheapest deliverable was 3200 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of 38 yuan/ton, a 10 - contract basis of - 10 yuan/ton, and a 01 - contract basis of 57 yuan/ton. The profit of Shanghai thread steel rolling was 20 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan from the previous day, while the profit of East China thread steel was - 106 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. [2] 3.1.2 Hot - Rolled Coil - **Futures**: HC05 closed at 3306 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan from the previous day; HC10 at 3330 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan; HC01 at 3251 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan. The 05 - contract hot - rolled coil's on - disk profit was - 23 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; the 10 - contract was 3 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan; the 01 - contract was 11 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan. [2] - **Spot**: The price of Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The cheapest deliverable was 3280 yuan/ton, with a 05 - contract basis of - 26 yuan/ton, a 10 - contract basis of - 50 yuan/ton, and a 01 - contract basis of 29 yuan/ton. The profit of Tianjin hot - rolled coil was - 368 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan from the previous day, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil was - 180 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan. [2] 3.2 Market Judgment 3.2.1 Related Prices - The spot price of Shanghai Zhongtian thread steel was 3270 yuan, unchanged; Beijing Jingye was 3170 yuan, unchanged; Shanghai Angang hot - rolled coil was 3290 yuan, up 10 yuan; Tianjin Hegang hot - rolled coil was 3190 yuan, unchanged. [5] 3.2.2 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The market sentiment has weakened, with limited upside potential. It may experience a slight correction in the short - term and maintain a weak and volatile trend. [7] - **Arbitrage**: It is recommended to short the hot - rolled coil to coking coal ratio at high levels and continue to hold the short position of the hot - rolled coil to thread steel spread. [8] - **Options**: It is recommended to wait and see. [9] 3.2.3 Important Information - In December 2025, China exported 1130.1 million tons of steel, an increase of 132.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 13.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel exports were 11901.9 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In December, China imported 51.7 million tons of steel, an increase of 2.1 million tons from the previous month, a month - on - month increase of 4.2%; from January to December, the cumulative steel imports were 605.9 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. [10] - In December 2025, China exported 994,000 vehicles; from January to December, the cumulative vehicle exports were 8.324 million, a year - on - year increase of 30.0%. [11] 3.3 Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to the basis, price spreads, on - disk profits, and cash profits of thread steel and hot - rolled coil, as well as the spreads between different regions and products. [16][18][20]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Oscillating Bullish" rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by factors such as production reduction and maintenance of steel mills, policy adjustments, and supply - demand relationships. Although the demand side is weak, the marginal reduction of crude steel supply and the release of negative risks may lead to a short - term rebound in steel prices [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to decline. At night, rebar closed down and hot - rolled coils closed up [1] 3.2 Important Information - Some steel mills in Shanxi have proposed production suspension and maintenance plans. One steel mill's blast furnace is planned to be shut down for maintenance this weekend, with a daily output impact of about 0.7 million tons. Three steel mills are tentatively planned for maintenance in December, with a daily output impact of about 1.35 million tons [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange publicly solicited opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standard [1] - The Tariff Commission of the State Council announced that starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, it will adjust the tariff - imposing measures on imported goods originating from the United States, continuing to suspend the implementation of the 24% tariff rate on the United States for one year and retaining the 10% tariff rate [1] - According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 billion tons, a 9.8% decrease from the previous ten - day period. The steel inventory was 14.63 billion tons, a decrease of 1.95 billion tons or 11.8% from the previous ten - day period [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Wednesday, the price of 61.5% Australian PB iron ore powder was 775 yuan/ton (- 10). The price of first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1680 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of second - class metallurgical coke was 1580 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanghai rebar was 3190 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] - Blast furnaces in Tangshan are reducing production and undergoing maintenance, some enterprises are reducing production, and electric - arc furnace steel is in full - scale loss. The marginal supply of crude steel is shrinking, while the demand side remains weak. Rebar has declined again, approaching the 3000 - point mark, and negative risks have been released. The resistance level of the rebar main contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000 [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The 3000 - point level of rebar still has strong resilience and may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to try to lay out long positions around 3000, and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1]

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 于 | 【行情复盘】 周四螺纹主力收于 2973，上涨 0.10%；次主力收于 2978，上涨 0.17%。热卷主力收 3103，上涨 0.39%；次主力收于 3101，上涨 0.29%。夜盘继续收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、国家发改委：第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于 7 月下达。 2、欧亚经济委员会继续对华无缝钢管征收反倾销税。 3、中钢协：6 月中旬，重点钢企粗钢平均日产 214.8 万吨，环比下降 0.5%。据此 | | | | | 估算，本旬全国日产粗钢 277 万吨，环比增长 1.2%。 4、6 月 26 日，人民币对美元即期汇率先后升破 7.17 和 7.16 关口，创下去年 11 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 短 线 震 | 月中旬以来的新高。美元指数一度跌破 97.0 关口，创 2022 年 2 月以来新低。 | | | | 荡 | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 周 ...