Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "Oscillating Bullish" rating for the steel products in the black building materials sector [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - Steel prices are affected by factors such as production reduction and maintenance of steel mills, policy adjustments, and supply - demand relationships. Although the demand side is weak, the marginal reduction of crude steel supply and the release of negative risks may lead to a short - term rebound in steel prices [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils continued to decline. At night, rebar closed down and hot - rolled coils closed up [1] 3.2 Important Information - Some steel mills in Shanxi have proposed production suspension and maintenance plans. One steel mill's blast furnace is planned to be shut down for maintenance this weekend, with a daily output impact of about 0.7 million tons. Three steel mills are tentatively planned for maintenance in December, with a daily output impact of about 1.35 million tons [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange publicly solicited opinions on adjusting the coking coal delivery quality standard [1] - The Tariff Commission of the State Council announced that starting from 13:01 on November 10, 2025, it will adjust the tariff - imposing measures on imported goods originating from the United States, continuing to suspend the implementation of the 24% tariff rate on the United States for one year and retaining the 10% tariff rate [1] - According to data from the China Iron and Steel Association, in late October 2025, key steel enterprises produced 19.99 billion tons of crude steel, with an average daily output of 1.817 billion tons, a 9.8% decrease from the previous ten - day period. The steel inventory was 14.63 billion tons, a decrease of 1.95 billion tons or 11.8% from the previous ten - day period [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Wednesday, the price of 61.5% Australian PB iron ore powder was 775 yuan/ton (- 10). The price of first - class metallurgical coke at Rizhao Port was 1680 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of second - class metallurgical coke was 1580 yuan/ton, unchanged. The price of Shanghai rebar was 3190 yuan/ton (- 20) [1] - Blast furnaces in Tangshan are reducing production and undergoing maintenance, some enterprises are reducing production, and electric - arc furnace steel is in full - scale loss. The marginal supply of crude steel is shrinking, while the demand side remains weak. Rebar has declined again, approaching the 3000 - point mark, and negative risks have been released. The resistance level of the rebar main contract is 3230, and the support level is 3000 [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - The 3000 - point level of rebar still has strong resilience and may rebound in the short term. It is recommended to try to lay out long positions around 3000, and stop loss if it effectively breaks below 3000 [1]

研究员： 纪晓云 从业资格： F3066027 交易咨询资格：Z0011402 联系方式：010-56711796 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 于 | 【行情复盘】 周四螺纹主力收于 2973，上涨 0.10%；次主力收于 2978，上涨 0.17%。热卷主力收 3103，上涨 0.39%；次主力收于 3101，上涨 0.29%。夜盘继续收涨。 【重要资讯】 1、国家发改委：第三批消费品以旧换新资金将于 7 月下达。 2、欧亚经济委员会继续对华无缝钢管征收反倾销税。 3、中钢协：6 月中旬，重点钢企粗钢平均日产 214.8 万吨，环比下降 0.5%。据此 | | | | | 估算，本旬全国日产粗钢 277 万吨，环比增长 1.2%。 4、6 月 26 日，人民币对美元即期汇率先后升破 7.17 和 7.16 关口，创下去年 11 | | 黑色建材 | 钢材 | 短 线 震 | 月中旬以来的新高。美元指数一度跌破 97.0 关口，创 2022 年 2 月以来新低。 | | | | 荡 | 【市场逻辑】 | | | | | 周 ...