证券研究报告 钢铁周报：权益底部继续修复 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 价格表现 | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2026年1月11日） | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | 上证指数 | | 4 , | 120 | 3 | 8% . | 3 8% . | | | 沪深300 | | 4 , | 759 | 2 | 8% . | 2 8% . | | | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 752 | 3 | 5% . | 3 5% . | | 板块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 | 591 | 3 | 0% | 3 0% | | | | SW特钢指数 | , 4 | 929 | ...

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，展望2026年，地产拖累或改善，基建实物工作量或将加速落地， 但海外需求或受抑制，钢厂在较高经营获现压力下供给亦难见大幅收缩，内需的结构性改善难遏钢价下 行，黑色产业价格或向下端寻求新"均衡"。行业发展格局上看，26年钢铁反内卷值得期待，供给出清有 望提速，结构性机会值得重视。特钢作为关键材料国产化替代正迎来加速拐点，行业盈利能力有望提 升，估值中枢有望上移。 随着低成本铁矿石新建产能持续释放、蒙煤进口量逐步提升，炉料价格下行周期有望延续，钢企购销两 端差价有望逐步扩大，黑色系利润分配将向成材端偏斜。中性预期下，测算2026年螺纹钢/热卷/冷轧板 吨毛利中枢为127/66/346元(同比+77/18/29元，近十年吨毛利中位数为245/129/537元)。 行业新变革，反转新驱动 中金认为，钢铁行业正迎来"减量提质"的发展新阶段，格局变革，分化加剧，龙头有望率先走出行业低 谷，实现底部反转：1)普钢：25版产能置换政策趋严，新版行业规范条件有望推动行业分级管理，超低 排放改造等绿色指标有望成为差异化产量调控新抓手，26年钢铁反内卷值得期待，供给出清有望提速， 结构性机会值得 ...

证券研究报告 钢铁周报：普钢布局期，盈利率修复或带动板块 上行 行业评级：看好 2025 年 12 月 28 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年12月28日） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 964 | 1 . | 9% | 18 . | 3% | | | 沪深300 | | 4 , | 657 | 1 . | 9% | 18 . | 4% | | | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 678 | 3 . | 2% | 27 . | 4% | | 板块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 ...

| 投资者关系活动 | 特定对象调研 分析师会议 | | --- | --- | | 类别 | □媒体采访 业绩说明会 □新闻发布会 路演活动 | | | 现场参观 其他 | | 参与单位名称及 | 鞍钢股份：高红宇 | | 人员姓名 | 鞍钢资本控股：张雷 | | | 嘉实基金：唐棠 | | 时间 | 2025 年 12 月 12 日 | | 地点 | 鞍山 | | 形式 | 实地调研 | | | 1、公司下一步发展规划 | | | 答：公司未来会坚持高端化、智能化、绿色化的发展方向，聚焦 | | | 国家发展战略，紧跟市场实际需求，大力打造高科技含量、高附 | | | 加值、高性能指标的高端产品。将新一代信息技术与生产经营深 | | | 度融合，加快形成面向生产全流程、管理全方位、产品全生命周 | | | 期的智能制造新模式。坚持生态优先、绿色发展，在源头减碳、 | | | 过程降碳、节能减排、资源循环等方面发力攻坚，推进绿色制造， | | 交流内容及具体 | 实现经济效益与环境效益协同发展。 | | 问答记录 | 2、公司产品竞争力情况 | | | 答：公司拥有热轧卷板、中厚板、冷轧板、镀锌 ...

Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025 was -20.4 billion, a decrease of 59.87% year-on-year, primarily due to pressures in the steel market [2] - Cost reduction measures achieved a decrease of 90 yuan per ton of steel compared to the previous year [2] Group 2: Future Development Plans - The company will focus on high-end, intelligent, and green development, aligning with national development strategies and market demands [2] - Plans to integrate new information technologies into production and management processes to create a new model of intelligent manufacturing [2] - Emphasis on ecological priority and green development, targeting carbon reduction and resource recycling [2] Group 3: Product Competitiveness - The company offers a comprehensive product range including hot-rolled sheets, cold-rolled sheets, galvanized sheets, and seamless steel pipes, widely used across various industries [3] - Leading position in shipbuilding steel certification and stable supply of high-tech ship steel [3] - Capability to produce high-strength automotive steel and a full range of silicon steel products for energy applications [3] Group 4: Raw Material Procurement - Iron ore procurement mainly comes from the Ansteel Group and imports, with domestic procurement being higher [3] - Coal procurement is primarily domestic, with strategic partnerships with major state-owned coal mines [3]

Economic Performance - In October, China's industrial added value significantly dropped to 4.9% year-on-year, while the service production index fell to 4.6%[1] - Fixed asset investment accelerated its decline to -11.0% year-on-year, with manufacturing investment showing the most notable decrease[1] - The overall economic growth structure is undergoing profound adjustments, moving away from reliance on scale expansion[1] Consumer Resilience - Despite a slight year-on-year decline in total retail sales of consumer goods, the consumption growth rate excluding automobiles actually rebounded[1] - Restaurant revenue growth accelerated significantly, with service retail sales climbing to 6.1% year-on-year, marking a new high for the year[1] - Consumer demand remains robust, playing a crucial role in combating deflation and driving price recovery[1] Policy Outlook - Future policies are expected to continue the approach of "braking old vehicles and accelerating new ones," focusing on suppressing inefficient production while expanding consumer demand[2] - Measures will include improving social security, stabilizing employment, and fostering new consumption scenarios to enhance residents' purchasing power and willingness to consume[2] Investment Trends - There is a notable shift in government spending from "investment in objects" to "investment in people," aiming to stimulate consumption and facilitate a positive economic cycle[1] - Infrastructure investment growth has significantly decreased, contrasting with the clear rise in service consumption growth[1]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that commodity prices align with seasonal expectations, and equity trends reflect positive market sentiment [1] Price Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 3,998 with a weekly increase of 1.1% and a year-to-date increase of 19.3% [3] - The SW Steel Index is at 2,737 with a weekly increase of 4.4% and a year-to-date increase of 30.2% [3] - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) price is at 3,200 CNY/ton, showing a weekly decrease of 0.3% and a year-to-date decrease of 6.2% [3] - Iron ore price index is at 105 USD/ton, reflecting a weekly decrease of 2.5% and a year-to-date decrease of 4.7% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,074,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0% and a year-to-date increase of 41.7% [6] - Total inventory at steel mills is 429,600 tons, with a weekly increase of 0% and a year-to-date increase of 22.4% [6] - Port inventory of iron ore is 14,895,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.4% [6] Supply and Demand - The report highlights the weekly production of five major steel products and daily average molten iron output, indicating ongoing production levels [9][12] - The report also discusses the operational rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces across the country, reflecting the industry's capacity utilization [11][12]

Economic Growth Targets - The baseline target requires an average annual economic growth rate of 4.17% over the next decade to double the per capita real GDP by 2035 compared to 2020 levels[1] - The ambitious target aims for a per capita nominal GDP of approximately $29,000 by 2035, positioning China among the top 50 countries globally[1] Economic Transformation - Achieving the $29,000 target necessitates a complex economic ecosystem, with a required average annual real GDP growth rate of 5.3% if the ideal deflation index remains at 2% and the RMB exchange rate is stable[2] - The growth paradigm must shift from reliance on physical quantity growth to a composite growth path driven by "new quality productivity enhancement, price level recovery, and steady RMB appreciation"[2] Policy Implications - The "anti-involution" policy is crucial for breaking low-level competition traps and developing "new quality productivity," which is essential for reshaping the economic growth engine[3] - This transition is vital not only for maintaining economic growth speed but also for achieving a substantial elevation in China's global economic status[3] Current Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment has decreased by 0.50% year-on-year, while retail sales have increased by 3.00% year-on-year[5] - Exports have declined by 1.10% year-on-year, and M2 growth stands at 8.37%[5] Market Trends - Recent data indicates a recovery in production and improvement in external demand, with real estate and infrastructure investment showing signs of recovery[15] - The consumer market is experiencing mixed signals, with subway ridership increasing by 5.7% year-on-year, while movie ticket sales have significantly declined by 58.1%[25] Trade and Export Performance - Port cargo throughput has surged to approximately 280 million tons, marking a more than 10% increase week-on-week, indicating a recovery in global trade demand[28] - The export container freight index has risen to 1021.39, reflecting improved market confidence and demand from Europe and the U.S.[28]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Bullish" [1] Report's Core View - The fundamentals of the steel industry are stronger than expected, with high molten iron production and steel inventory reduction [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Price - The Shanghai Composite Index was at 3,840, with a weekly decline of 1.5% and a year-to-date increase of 14.6% [3] - The CSI 300 Index was at 4,514, with a weekly decline of 2.2% and a year-to-date increase of 14.7% [3] - The SW Steel Index was at 2,545, with a weekly decline of 2.0% and a year-to-date increase of 21.1% [3] - The prices of various steel products and raw materials showed different degrees of change, such as the price of HRB400 20mm rebar was 3,210 yuan/ton, with a weekly change of 0.0% and a year-to-date decline of 5.9% [3] Inventory - The total social inventory of five major steel products was 1,125 tons, with a weekly decline of 0.2% and a year-to-date increase of 48.3% [5] - The total steel mill inventory of five major steel products was 456 tons, with a weekly decline of 3.4% and a year-to-date increase of 30.3% [5] - The iron ore port inventory was 14,282 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.8% and a year-to-date decline of 3.9% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly production of five major steel products and the daily average molten iron production showed different trends over the years [9] - The blast furnace and electric furnace operating rates and capacity utilization rates in China showed different trends over time [12] - The profitability rate of steel mills and the apparent demand for rebar in China were presented [15] Stock Price Performance - The top 5 stocks in terms of weekly price increase were Lingang Co., Ltd., Baotou Steel Co., Ltd., etc., and the bottom 5 stocks were Jiuli Special Materials Co., Ltd., Shougang Co., Ltd., etc. [18][19]

Economic Overview - September inflation data shows a slight increase in core CPI, while PPI remains flat month-on-month and the year-on-year decline narrows[1] - Market discussions suggest a potential recovery in industrial prices similar to the strong rebound seen in 2016-2017, with expectations for PPI to turn positive by mid-next year[1] Structural Changes - Current household leverage is stable at high levels, contrasting with the rising trend seen in 2016-2017, limiting the effectiveness of stimulus policies[1] - The demand gap is significantly larger now than in previous years, making it more challenging to stimulate demand effectively[1] Policy Direction - A fundamental shift in policy focus is noted, moving from encouraging borrowing to enhancing income distribution and government spending to boost consumer confidence and spending power[2] - The economic recovery is expected to be gradual, likely following an "L-shaped" trajectory rather than a rapid "V-shaped" rebound[2] Key Economic Indicators - Fixed asset investment cumulative year-on-year growth stands at 0.50%[4] - Retail sales growth for the month is at 3.40% year-on-year[4] - Exports show a year-on-year increase of 8.30%[4] - M2 money supply growth is recorded at 8.40%[4] Market Dynamics - Real estate investment remains weak, with rebar production continuing to decline and inventory levels high[13] - Infrastructure investment shows resilience, with certain production metrics indicating ongoing strength in related sectors[13] Consumer Behavior - Overall consumer activity is stable, but there are signs of structural divergence, particularly in transportation and retail sectors[21] - Movie box office performance is weak, while automobile sales have seen a notable increase of approximately 8.5% year-on-year[21] Trade and External Factors - Global external demand recovery is slow, with port throughput showing typical fluctuations and export freight rates declining since July[28] - Increased shipping capacity is shifting towards emerging markets, reflecting changes in global trade dynamics[28] Fiscal Measures - A new 500 billion yuan local government financial support package is expected to bolster economic activity[30] - The overall fiscal deficit has reached 10 trillion yuan, with a progress rate of 84.1%[30] Monetary Policy - The willingness to leverage in the bond market is decreasing, although it remains at a high level[40] - The current monetary environment continues to be loose, with various indicators suggesting ongoing support for economic activity[40] Real Estate Market - The real estate market faces significant downward pressure, with transaction volumes in major cities remaining low[49] - Land transaction volumes show no significant improvement, indicating persistent challenges in the property sector[49]