分品种来看，与上月末相比，八大品种价格均有所下降，其中降幅最大的为镀锌板，降幅最小的为热轧 卷板。具体来看，直径6毫米高线价格为3460元/吨，比上月末下降23元/吨，降幅为0.65%；直径16毫米 螺纹钢价格为3262元/吨，比上月末下降17元/吨，降幅为0.52%；5#角钢价格为3450元/吨，比上月末下 降20元/吨，降幅为0.58%；20毫米中厚板价格为3524元/吨，比上月末下降23元/吨，降幅为0.64%；3毫 米热轧卷板价格为3551元/吨，比上月末下降1元/吨，降幅为0.02%；1毫米冷轧薄板价格为4029元/吨， 比上月末下降4元/吨，降幅为0.09%；1毫米镀锌板价格为4282元/吨，比上月末下降33元/吨，降幅为 0.77%；直径219毫米×10毫米热轧无缝管价格为4275元/吨，比上月末下降23元/吨，降幅为0.54%。 当周，中国钢材价格指数(CSPI)为95.46点，周环比上涨0.07点，涨幅为0.07%；比上月末下降0.41点， 降幅为0.43%；比去年底下降2.01点，降幅为2.06%；同比上涨4.08点，涨幅为4.46%。其中，长材价格 指数为96.95点，周环比下降0.17 ...

钢材期货周度报告 2025年08月25日 淡季进入尾声 关注限产扰动 摘 要： 行情回顾：本周，焦煤提涨2轮，原材支撑延续，强化了市 场预期。基本面较弱情况下，市场情绪回归理性，本周价格呈现 震荡下跌走势，环比上周价格重心下移。本周建材价格震荡下 跌，全国螺纹钢均价环比下跌49元/吨，高线均价环比下跌45元/ 吨。 基本面分析：从钢材现货市场来看，供给端：由于品种盈亏 的影响，钢厂产能释放力度由强转弱，但铁水产量略有增加，而 品种产量表现不一。需求端：由于区域限产的逐步落地，区域物 流受限，同时淡季效应依然明显，市场成交明显减弱。成本端： 由于铁矿石价格稳中下滑，废钢价格稳中下滑，焦炭价格维持平 稳，生产成本支撑力度减弱。 投资策略：单边：区间操作为主 跨期套利：观望为主 卷螺价差：观望为主 钢材利润：观望为主 期权策略：宽跨式 盘整 宁证期货投资咨询中心 期货交易咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775 号 作者姓名：丛燕飞 期货从业资格号：F3020240 期货投资咨询从业证书号：Z0015666 邮箱：congyanfei@nzfco.com 请参阅最后一页的重要声明 钢材期货周报 一、本周行情回顾 ...

产量与库存：截至8月22日，五大钢材产量上升，总库存环比上升。产量方面，本周五 大钢材品种产量878万吨，环比升6.43万吨，其中建筑钢材产量周环比减3.71万吨，板材产量 周环比升10.14万吨，螺纹钢本周减产5.8万吨至214.65万吨。分不同炼钢方式来看，本周 长、短流程螺纹钢产量分别为184.87万吨、29.78万吨，环比分别-5.38万吨、-0.42万吨。库 存方面，本周五大钢材品种社会总库存环比增26.43万吨至1016.21万吨，钢厂总库存423.83 万吨，环比降1.3万吨，其中，螺纹钢社库增17.58万吨，厂库增2.27万吨。表观消费量方 面，测算本周螺纹钢表观消费量194.8万吨，环比升4.86万吨，本周建筑钢材成交日均值9.48 万吨，环比下降7.29%。 民生证券近日发布钢铁行业研究报告：本周钢材价格下跌。截至8月22日，上海20mm HRB400材质螺纹价格为3270元/吨，较上周降30元/吨。高线8.0mm价格为3420元/吨，较上 周降50元/吨。热轧3.0mm价格为3420元/吨，较上周降40元/吨。冷轧1.0mm价格为3830元/ 吨，较上周降50元/吨。普中板20mm价格为 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Chengdu steel market is experiencing a fluctuating adjustment in mainstream product prices due to ongoing supply-demand contradictions, traditional off-season demand weakness, and changes in raw material costs [1][4]. Price Overview - Rebar (HRB400E 18-25mm) is quoted at 3170-3330 CNY/ton, down by 10-20 CNY/ton from the previous day, with limited high-price transactions [4]. - Medium and heavy plates (Q235B) are priced at 3870 CNY/ton for 8mm and 3500 CNY/ton for 20mm, facing downward pressure due to reduced manufacturing orders [4]. - Hot-rolled coils (Q235B/SS400) are quoted at 3420 CNY/ton for 3.0mm and 3360 CNY/ton for 4.75mm, with low demand from the automotive and home appliance sectors [4]. - Wire rod (HPB300 8-10mm) is priced at 3390-3490 CNY/ton, with general market transactions [5]. - Hot-rolled strip steel (Q235B 3.5mm*685) remains stable at 3440 CNY/ton, with a lack of strong price support from traders [6]. Market Dynamics Analysis - Demand Side: The off-season effect continues, with insufficient release of demand [6]. - Construction industry: Slow funding for infrastructure projects and limited real estate construction intensity lead to low new project initiation rates [7]. - Manufacturing: Weak demand for plate products, particularly medium and heavy plates, due to reduced downstream orders [8]. - Supply Side: High production and inventory pressures coexist [9]. - Local steel mills maintain high production levels, while external resources increase competition, leading to inventory pressure [9]. - Rumors of environmental production restrictions have not materialized, creating a contradiction between steel mills' pricing intentions and actual market transactions [10]. - Cost Side: Strong raw material prices support the bottom of steel prices [11]. - Iron ore and coke prices remain high, with steel billet costs rising to 3080 CNY/ton, compressing profit margins for steel mills [11]. - Macroeconomic and Futures Market: Policy expectations and financial attributes significantly influence the market [12]. - In July, special bond issuance exceeded 600 billion CNY, improving infrastructure investment expectations in Chengdu, but market sentiment remains cautious regarding policy implementation [12]. - Fluctuations in the futures market dominate spot market sentiment, with weak futures prices suppressing market confidence [12]. Market Outlook - In the short term, the Chengdu steel market is expected to continue fluctuating weakly [13]. - Demand Side: Insufficient enthusiasm for terminal procurement and ongoing off-season effects hinder significant improvements in transactions [13]. - Supply Side: High production levels and inventory pressures create significant resistance to price increases [14]. - Cost Side: Strong raw material prices provide support, but compressed profits may inhibit capacity release [15]. - In the long term, as infrastructure projects gradually materialize and environmental production restrictions are implemented, combined with the release of demand during the autumn construction peak, the market may see a recovery [15].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, based on their projected earnings and valuation metrics [3]. Core Viewpoints - Steel demand is entering a seasonal downturn, with a focus on production restrictions in North China. The recent announcement of new coal safety regulations has led to rising prices in the coking coal sector. Despite high supply levels, steel mill profits are declining. Anticipation of production cuts around the September 3 military parade may temporarily suppress steel supply [3][6]. - Long-term capacity management remains a key theme, with a combination of market-oriented and administrative measures expected to optimize crude steel supply. The gradual release of new iron ore capacity is anticipated to restore profitability for steel companies [3][6]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of August 8, 2025, steel prices showed mixed trends. The price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai was 3,330 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY/ton from the previous week. Hot-rolled steel increased by 40 CNY/ton to 3,470 CNY/ton, while cold-rolled steel rose by 10 CNY/ton to 3,870 CNY/ton [1][9]. Production and Inventory - The total production of five major steel varieties reached 8.69 million tons, an increase of 17,900 tons week-on-week. Rebar production rose by 101,200 tons to 2.2118 million tons. Total social inventory increased by 201,600 tons to 9.6149 million tons [2][3]. Profitability - Steel profits have decreased, with estimated gross margins for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel declining by 67 CNY/ton, 16 CNY/ton, and 28 CNY/ton respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also fell by 22 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment: Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector; Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. in the special steel sector; and Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless in the pipe materials sector. It also suggests monitoring high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [3][6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, steel prices continued to rebound, with the average national rebar price rising by 152 yuan/ton week-on-week and the average high-speed wire price rising by 114 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spread between rebar and high-speed wire continued to narrow. Recently, due to the excessive increase in raw material prices, as market sentiment cools, their prices may experience a certain correction, and finished product prices may fluctuate with costs and then experience high-level volatile corrections [2][3][28]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Market Review - This week, steel prices continued to rebound, with the average national rebar price rising by 152 yuan/ton week-on-week and the average high-speed wire price rising by 114 yuan/ton week-on-week. The spread between rebar and high-speed wire continued to narrow. The increases in East and Northeast China were relatively large, reaching over 180 - 200 yuan/ton, while the increases in South, Southwest, Northwest, and Central China ranged from 90 - 170 yuan/ton [2][3]. 3.2 Macroeconomic and Industrial News - The Chinese and US sides agreed that Vice Premier He Lifeng will go to Sweden for economic and trade talks with the US from July 27th to 30th. The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation solicited public opinions on the revised draft of the Price Law, aiming to improve the standards for identifying low-price dumping and unfair price behaviors. The National Development and Reform Commission emphasized promoting large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods trade-ins. From January to June, 16,500 urban old community renovation projects started nationwide, and the plan for 2025 is to start 25,000 projects. From July 22nd to 27th, there were multiple price increases for coke in markets such as Xingtai, Shandong, and Tangshan [5][6]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis - According to Mysteel's survey of 237 mainstream traders, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 114,700 tons, higher than last week's 93,700 tons. The rise in futures rebar drove an improvement in terminal sentiment, with significantly better market trading performance and obvious increases in trading prices [8]. 3.4 Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - Recently, due to the excessive increase in raw material prices, as market sentiment cools, their prices may experience a certain correction, and finished product prices may fluctuate with costs and then experience high-level volatile corrections. Investment strategies include mainly adopting range operations for single positions, mainly adopting a wait-and-see approach for inter - period arbitrage, the spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar, and steel profits, and adopting a wide - straddle consolidation strategy for options [28].

Domestic Macro - Demand Side - The travel market is heating up during the summer, with domestic flight numbers averaging 14,500 per day, a 13.08% increase month-on-month and a 2.28% increase year-on-year[2] - Retail sales of passenger cars reached 571,000 units in the first two weeks of July, a year-on-year increase of 5.7%, but a month-on-month decrease of 6.7%[2] Domestic Macro - Production Side - The average operating rate of blast furnaces decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 83.35% as of July 20, while the operating rate of coke ovens fell by 0.94 percentage points to 72.93%[2] - The operating rate of asphalt plants increased by 6.58 percentage points to 32.4%, indicating significant growth in real estate infrastructure[2] Price Performance - As of July 18, the average wholesale price of pork rose by 0.2% week-on-week, while the average wholesale price of 28 monitored vegetables fell by 0.09%[2] - The PPI showed a decline in oil prices, with WTI and Brent crude oil prices dropping by 1.44% and 1.05%, respectively[3] Fiscal and Investment - This week saw the issuance of special government bonds increase significantly, with 123 billion yuan in new special bonds and 1,315 billion yuan in new special bonds (excluding debt relief) issued, marking a notable acceleration in issuance[3] - The cement shipment rate has rebounded, indicating an increase in construction activity, particularly in water conservancy and public facilities projects[3] Overseas Macro - The U.S. inflation rate for June was 2.7% year-on-year, with core inflation at 2.9%, indicating manageable inflation levels despite tariff impacts[4] - The U.S. "GENIUS Act" and other cryptocurrency-related bills have passed the House, supporting the development of private sector digital currencies and reinforcing the dollar's position[3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for several steel companies, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel, among others [3][4]. Core Viewpoints - The upcoming "stability growth plan" from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is expected to optimize steel production capacity, focusing on structural adjustments and the elimination of outdated capacity [3][7]. - Steel prices have shown an upward trend, with specific prices for various steel products increasing as of July 18, 2025 [1][10]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, with a total production of 8.68 million tons for the five major steel products, reflecting a week-on-week decrease [2][8]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the price of 20mm HRB400 rebar in Shanghai is 3,270 CNY/ton, up 30 CNY/ton from the previous week [1][10]. - Other steel products also saw price increases, including hot-rolled and cold-rolled steel [1][11]. Production and Inventory - The total production of the five major steel products is 8.68 million tons, down 45,300 tons week-on-week [2][8]. - Social inventory of the five major steel products increased by 81,500 tons to 9.21 million tons, while steel mill inventory decreased by 100,200 tons [2][8]. Profitability - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -19 CNY/ton, -7 CNY/ton, and +7 CNY/ton respectively [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies for investment, including Baosteel, Hualing Steel, and Nanjing Steel in the flat steel sector, and Xianglou New Materials and CITIC Special Steel in the special steel sector [3][4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report suggests that signals of "anti-involution" will drive the industry out of its bottom phase [1] - The report highlights that the SW Steel Index has increased by 4.4% week-to-date and 10.2% year-to-date, indicating a positive trend in the steel sector [3] - The total social inventory of five major steel products is 9.13 million tons, showing a slight increase of 0.2% week-to-date but a significant increase of 20.4% year-to-date [5] - The report notes that the iron ore port inventory stands at 13,769 million tons, with a week-to-date increase of 0.8% and a year-to-date decrease of 7.3% [5] Price Data Summary - The report provides various price data for steel products, including: - Rebar (HRB400 20mm) at 3,240 CNY/ton, with a week-to-date increase of 1.9% and a year-to-date decrease of 5.0% [3] - Hot-rolled coil at 3,310 CNY/ton, with a week-to-date increase of 1.2% and a year-to-date decrease of 3.2% [3] - Cold-rolled steel at 3,640 CNY/ton, with a week-to-date increase of 0.3% and a year-to-date decrease of 11.4% [3] Supply and Demand - The weekly production of five major steel products is reported, with a notable increase in daily molten iron output [9] - The report indicates that the operating rate of blast furnaces across 247 companies is being monitored, reflecting the industry's production capacity utilization [12][14]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for the steel sector, highlighting strong price performance and potential recovery in profitability for steel companies [5][6]. Core Insights - The "anti-involution" policy continues to influence the market, leading to stronger expectations for supply-side constraints and supporting higher steel prices [5]. - As of July 11, 2025, steel prices have increased, with notable rises in various categories such as rebar and hot-rolled steel [3][11]. - The report indicates a decrease in steel production and inventory levels, suggesting a tightening supply situation [4][5]. Price Summary - As of July 11, 2025, the prices for key steel products are as follows: - Rebar (20mm HRB400): 3,240 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton from last week - High-line (8.0mm): 3,410 CNY/ton, up 50 CNY/ton - Hot-rolled (3.0mm): 3,350 CNY/ton, up 60 CNY/ton - Cold-rolled (1.0mm): 3,680 CNY/ton, up 70 CNY/ton - Common medium plate (20mm): 3,330 CNY/ton, up 10 CNY/ton [3][11][12]. Production and Inventory - As of July 11, 2025, total steel production for the five major categories was 8.73 million tons, a decrease of 124,400 tons week-on-week [4]. - Total social inventory of the five major steel products decreased by 20,200 tons to 9.1278 million tons, while steel mill inventory increased by 17,700 tons to 4.2557 million tons [4]. Profitability Analysis - The report notes fluctuations in steel profitability, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel margins changing by -14 CNY/ton, -13 CNY/ton, and +33 CNY/ton respectively week-on-week [3][4]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies based on their performance and market position: - For flat steel: Baosteel, Hualing Steel, Nanjing Steel - For special steel: Xianglou New Materials, CITIC Special Steel, Yongjin Co. - For pipe materials: Jiuli Special Materials, Youfa Group, Wujin Stainless Steel - Additionally, it suggests paying attention to high-temperature alloy companies like Fushun Special Steel [5].