Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the expectation of stable growth driven by the Two Sessions, with a focus on "anti-involution" measures [1] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index is at 3,023, with a weekly change of -3.5% and a year-to-date change of 13.6% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,170 CNY/ton, with a year-to-date change of -4.5% [3] - The iron ore price index is at 101 USD/ton, reflecting a year-to-date decrease of 6.6% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 1,402,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 8.3% and a year-to-date increase of 60.8% [5] - Steel mill inventory stands at 549,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 31.9% and a year-to-date increase of 42.4% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 17,123,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 0.2% and a year-to-date increase of 7.9% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 1,000,000 tons [9] - Daily average molten iron production is expected to reach approximately 240,000 tons [9] - The report indicates a steady demand for rebar, with a focus on maintaining production efficiency [15]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is optimistic [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel industry is expected to continue its positive trend, with a focus on price performance and inventory levels [1][4][6] Price Performance - The SW Steel Index has shown a year-to-date increase of 17.8%, while the SW General Steel Index and SW Special Steel Index have increased by 15.9% and 17.2% respectively [4] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is at 3,200 CNY/ton, reflecting a 3% increase week-on-week and a 3.6% increase year-to-date [4] - Hot-rolled coil prices are at 3,260 CNY/ton, with a 0% change week-on-week and a 0% change year-to-date [4] Inventory Levels - The total social inventory of the five major steel products is 1,294 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 9.6% and a year-to-date increase of 48.4% [6] - The total inventory at steel mills is 550 million tons, showing a week-on-week increase of 3% and a year-to-date increase of 42.8% [6] - Port inventory of iron ore stands at 17,096 million tons, with a week-on-week increase of 0.9% and a year-to-date increase of 7.8% [6] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of the five major steel products is projected to continue increasing, with daily molten iron production expected to rise as well [10] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the operating rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces across the country to gauge supply dynamics [12][15]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several key companies in the steel industry, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [2][3]. Core Insights - The iron ore market is experiencing downward price trends due to high overseas shipments and increasing port inventories, which have surpassed 170 million tons. This has led to a structural easing of inventory issues as steel mills complete their restocking [6][28]. - Short-term expectations for real estate policy relaxation may improve raw material cost pressures, potentially leading to a recovery in steel mill profits. Long-term, the industry is expected to shift from scale expansion to quality and efficiency improvements, benefiting leading enterprises [6][28]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of February 6, 2026, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,210 CNY/ton, down 30 CNY/ton from the previous week. Other products like high-line and hot-rolled steel also saw price declines [12][13]. International Steel Market - In the U.S., hot-rolled steel prices increased to 1,066 USD/ton, while in Europe, prices fluctuated with hot-rolled steel at 782 USD/ton, reflecting a mixed market response [23][25]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices are stable with slight declines, while scrap steel prices have risen to 2,090 CNY/ton. The coal market is influenced by production quota adjustments in Indonesia, affecting prices [28][29]. Production and Inventory - As of February 6, 2026, total steel production decreased to 8.2 million tons, with an increase in total inventory to 939.28 million tons, indicating a rise in stock levels despite production cuts [6][12]. Profitability Analysis - The report indicates a decline in steel margins, with average gross profits for rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled steel decreasing by 27 CNY/ton, 19 CNY/ton, and 21 CNY/ton respectively [6][28]. Key Company Valuations and Stock Performance - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for various companies, with Hualing Steel projected to have an EPS of 0.50 CNY in 2025, and a price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 12x, indicating a favorable investment outlook [2][3].

Group 1: Price Adjustments by Shagang - Shagang adjusted the ex-factory prices for construction steel varieties effective February 1, 2026, based on the January 21 price adjustment [1][3] - The price for HRB400 rebar (Ф16-20mm) remains stable at 3450 CNY/ton, with additional charges for various specifications ranging from 30 to 250 CNY/ton [1][3] - The price for HPB300 high wire (Ф6-10mm) is stable at 3470 CNY/ton, and the price for HRB400 screw thread (Ф8-10mm) is stable at 3560 CNY/ton [4] Group 2: Price Adjustments by Zhongtian Steel - Zhongtian Steel Group adjusted the ex-factory prices for construction materials effective February 1, 2026, based on the January 20 price adjustment [6] - The price for HRB400 rebar (Ф18mm) is stable at 3400 CNY/ton, with additional charges for various specifications ranging from 30 to 250 CNY/ton [6] - The price for HPB300 high wire (Ф8-12mm) is stable at 3700 CNY/ton, and the price for HRB400 screw thread (Ф8-10mm) is also stable at 3700 CNY/ton [2][6]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Views - The report indicates that the equity bottom is continuing to recover, suggesting a positive outlook for the steel industry [1] Price Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index is at 4,120, with a weekly increase of 3.8% and a year-to-date increase of 3.8% [3] - The SW Steel Index is at 2,752, with a weekly increase of 3.5% and a year-to-date increase of 3.5% [3] - The average price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,280 CNY/ton, with a weekly decrease of 1.2% [3] - Iron ore price index is at 108 USD/ton, with a weekly increase of 6% [3] Inventory - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 864,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.7% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills is 389,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 1.9% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 16,280,000 tons, with a weekly increase of 2.6% [5] Supply and Demand - The weekly output of five major steel products is projected to be around 750,000 tons [9] - Daily average molten iron production is expected to reach 195,000 tons [9] - The report highlights the recovery in demand for steel products, indicating a positive trend in the market [8][10]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, indicating a positive outlook for these stocks [3]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need for deep reforms to address "involution" competition in the steel industry, with the central government advocating for a unified national market and stricter export management [2]. - The introduction of export licenses for certain steel products is expected to limit the export of low-value-added products, encouraging steel companies to upgrade to higher-end products [2]. - In the short term, low-value-added products may face adjustments, while the long-term trend will see an increase in the export proportion of high-end products, benefiting leading companies in the industry [2]. Summary by Sections Domestic Steel Market - As of December 12, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with HRB400 rebar priced at 3,250 CNY/ton, down 20 CNY from the previous week [7][16]. - The report notes a decline in production and inventory levels, with total steel production at 8.06 million tons, a decrease of 227,300 tons week-on-week [7][16]. International Steel Market - The report highlights stable price increases in the U.S. and European steel markets, with U.S. hot-rolled coil prices at 985 USD/ton, up 10 USD from the previous week [28][30]. Raw Materials and Shipping Market - Domestic iron ore prices have shown a mixed trend, with some prices remaining stable while others have decreased slightly [33]. - The report indicates a decline in scrap steel prices, with the current price at 2,080 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY from the previous week [33]. Company Valuations and Stock Performance - The report provides earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for key companies, with Hualing Steel projected to have an EPS of 0.29 CNY in 2024 and a PE ratio of 18 [3].

Core Viewpoint - The steel market is experiencing fluctuations with a recent rebound followed by a decline, influenced by various production and regulatory factors affecting supply and demand dynamics [1][3][7]. Price Movement Factors Positive Factors - In October, China's rebar production was 14.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.6% [3]. - China's automobile production in October reached 3.279 million units, a year-on-year increase of 11.2% [3]. - Chinese shipbuilding companies captured over 74% of the global container ship order market [3]. - The third round of the fifth batch of central ecological and environmental protection inspections has been fully implemented [3]. Negative Factors - In October, China's steel plate exports were 5.97 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 22.6% [3]. - Land use rights transfer revenue for the first ten months was 24.982 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.4% [4]. - China's steel billet exports in October decreased by 21% compared to September, turning from positive to negative year-on-year [4]. Regulatory Impact - On November 21, 2025, the U.S. President approved a two-year exemption from coking oven regulations, which is expected to boost steel production as approximately 70% of steel production relies on metallurgical coke [3][5]. - The exemption aims to ensure uninterrupted operation of critical coke production to support national security without incurring high compliance costs [5]. Market Conditions - The market is currently cautious, with a slight increase in construction activity in northern regions and stable operations in southern areas, leading to a minor increase in funding availability [7]. - The fourth round of coke price increases has negatively impacted long-process steel companies, leading to a decrease in blast furnace operating rates [7]. - The steel market is expected to experience narrow price adjustments in the upcoming week, with a projected fluctuation range of -30 to -40 yuan per ton [7]. Price Adjustments - Chongqing Yonghang has lowered prices by 20 yuan per ton for various steel products, including high-line and rebar [8][9]. - Other companies like Maanshan Steel and Changjiang Steel have maintained their previous prices for certain products, indicating a mixed pricing strategy in the market [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several steel companies, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others [3][4]. Core Views - The steel industry is gradually entering the off-season, with differentiated performance among various products. Steel production and apparent consumption are both declining, indicating seasonal characteristics. Inventory reduction rates are similar to previous years, but absolute inventory levels remain high. Steel mill profits are at low levels, and a seasonal downward trend is expected in both supply and demand [3][4]. - The report highlights that the production structure is changing, with some steel mills shifting from rebar production to plate production due to weak real estate demand. This has led to an increase in plate production and a decrease in rebar production, with supply changes outpacing demand changes in the short term [3][4]. Summary by Sections Price Trends - As of November 7, 2025, steel prices have decreased, with rebar priced at 3200 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton from the previous week. Hot-rolled and cold-rolled prices also saw declines of 60 CNY/ton and 50 CNY/ton, respectively [1][10]. Production and Inventory - Total steel production for the week was 8.57 million tons, a decrease of 185,500 tons from the previous week. Social inventory decreased by 20,400 tons to 10.7383 million tons, while steel mill inventory fell by 80,900 tons [2][3]. Profitability - Steel mill profits have declined, with rebar, hot-rolled, and cold-rolled margins decreasing by 7 CNY/ton, 38 CNY/ton, and 10 CNY/ton, respectively. Electric arc furnace steel margins also fell by 14 CNY/ton [1][3]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks, including Hualing Steel, Baosteel, Nanjing Steel, and others, highlighting their potential for recovery in profitability due to capacity regulation and precise management [3][4].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The steel market is in a state of weak balance with supply and demand, and the cost still provides support. Next week, steel prices may adjust within a narrow range, and the pattern of repeated ups and downs will continue. The market should be treated as weakly volatile, and patiently wait for opportunities for a bottom - rebound [29]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. This Week's Market Review - Market sentiment was average, with the game between long - and short - term factors and fundamentals. This week, steel prices showed a volatile downward trend, and the price center of gravity shifted down compared with last week. The national average price of rebar decreased by 8 yuan/ton, and the average price of high - speed wire decreased by 9 yuan/ton. Except for a slight increase in the Northeast region, all other regions declined slightly, with a decline ranging from 10 - 30 yuan/ton [2][3] 2. Macro and Industrial News - The "Opinions of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the State Council on Promoting High - Quality Urban Development" was released, supporting the construction of world - class city clusters in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong - Hong Kong - Macao Greater Bay Area. The Ministry of Commerce will introduce policies to expand service consumption next month and has formulated policies to promote service exports. From January to July this year, the national issuance of new local government bonds was 331.59 billion yuan, and the total issuance of local government bonds was 670.36 billion yuan. From January to July, the total profit of the ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry was 64.36 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5175.4%. In mid - August 2025, the daily output of key steel enterprises increased, and the estimated national daily output of steel also increased. As of the week of August 27, the capacity utilization rate of 523 coking coal mines decreased, and the inventory of raw coal and clean coal increased. Recently, many small and medium - sized banks announced a reduction in RMB deposit interest rates [5][6] 3. Fundamental Analysis - According to the survey of 237 mainstream traders by Mysteel, the average daily trading volume of building materials from Monday to Friday this week was 94,400 tons, lower than last week's 94,800 tons. The demand for steel in the off - season continued to be weak, downstream terminals purchased on demand, and merchants' willingness to replenish inventory was not strong. The short - term market was dominated by a wait - and - see attitude [9] 4. Market Outlook and Investment Strategies - The current steel demand is at the switching point between the off - season and peak season. Short - term demand is still weak, but there is an expectation of improvement in the medium - term. The increase in construction steel output is expected to slow down. The steel market is in a weak balance, and the cost still provides support. The steel price may adjust within a narrow range next week. From the perspective of the disk, most black commodities closed down, and the iron ore main contract rose slightly. The rebar main contract 2601 showed a downward trend, with the center of gravity shifting down. It should be treated as weakly volatile, waiting for a bottom - rebound opportunity. Investment strategies include mainly range - bound operations for single - side trading, waiting and seeing for inter - period arbitrage, volume - screw spread, and steel profit, and a wide - straddle consolidation for option strategies [29]

Price Index Overview - The China Steel Price Index (CSPI) for the week of August 11-15 is 95.46 points, reflecting a slight week-on-week increase of 0.07 points or 0.07% [1] - The long product price index decreased to 96.95 points, down 0.17 points or 0.18% week-on-week, while the flat product price index increased to 94.23 points, up 0.25 points or 0.26% week-on-week [1] Regional Price Trends - In North China, the steel price index rose to 94.41 points, up 0.29 points or 0.31% week-on-week [2] - The Northeast region saw a slight decline of 0.01 points to 93.63 points, while East China experienced a decrease of 0.13 points to 96.61 points [2] - The Central South region's index decreased by 0.03 points to 97.44 points, whereas Southwest and Northwest regions saw increases of 0.18 points and 0.50 points, respectively [2] Price Changes by Product - All eight major steel product prices decreased compared to the end of the previous month, with the largest drop in galvanized sheets and the smallest in hot-rolled sheets [3] - Specific price changes include: high-line steel at 3460 CNY/ton (down 0.65%), rebar at 3262 CNY/ton (down 0.52%), and cold-rolled sheets at 4029 CNY/ton (down 0.09%) [3] Cost Factors - The average import price of iron ore in July was 94.41 USD/ton, up 1.53 USD/ton or 1.65% month-on-month [4] - Domestic iron concentrate prices increased to 877 CNY/ton, up 5 CNY/ton or 0.58% [4] - Coking coal prices rose to 1364 CNY/ton, up 58 CNY/ton or 4.43%, while coke prices increased to 1427 CNY/ton, up 91 CNY/ton or 6.81% [4] Market Demand and Supply - Demand remains weak, particularly for construction steel, during the off-season [5] - Steel production has slightly decreased, while fuel prices for steelmaking have shown minor increases, providing some support to steel prices [5] - The market is expected to remain stable with a slight upward bias in the short term [5]