行业评级：看好 2025 年 07 月 13 日 | 分析师 | 沈皓俊 | 研究助理 | 张轩 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 邮箱 | shenhaojun@stocke.com.cn | 邮箱 | zhangxuan01@stocke.com.cn | | 证书编号 | S1230523080011 | | | 证券研究报告 钢铁周报："反内卷"信号将带动行业走出底部 1 | | 【浙商金属】 | | 钢铁周度数据 | | （2025年7月13日） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 价 格 | | | | 周涨跌幅 | | 年初至今涨跌幅 | | | | 上证指数 | | 3 , | 510 | | 1 1% . | 4 . | 7% | | | 沪深300 | | 4 , | 015 | | 0 8% . | 2 . | 0% | | 板 | SW钢铁指数 | | 2 , | 317 | | 4 4% . | 10 . | 2% | | 块 | | SW普钢指数 | 2 , ...

钢铁周报 20250713 "反内卷"持续发酵，钢价偏强运行 2025 年 07 月 13 日 ➢ 价格：本周钢材价格上涨。截至 7 月 11 日，上海 20mm HRB400 材质螺 纹价格为 3240 元/吨，较上周升 60 元/吨。高线 8.0mm 价格为 3410 元/吨， 较上周升 50 元/吨。热轧 3.0mm 价格为 3350 元/吨，较上周升 60 元/吨。冷轧 1.0mm 价格为 3680 元/吨，较上周升 70 元/吨。普中板 20mm 价格为 3330 元 /吨，较上周升 10 元/吨。本周原材料中，国产矿市场价格稳中有升，进口矿市 场价格上涨，废钢价格下跌。 ➢ 利润：本周钢材利润震荡。长流程方面，我们测算本周行业螺纹钢、热轧和 冷轧毛利分别环比前一周变化-14 元/吨，-13 元/吨和+33 元/吨。短流程方面， 本周电炉钢毛利环比前一周变化+13 元/吨。 ➢ 产量与库存：截至 7 月 11 日，五大钢材产量下降，总库存环比下降。产量 方面，本周五大钢材品种产量 873 万吨，环比降 12.44 万吨，其中建筑钢材产量 周环比减 6.69 万吨，板材产量周环比降 5.75 万吨，螺 ...

Core Viewpoint - The leadership change at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Co., Ltd. (Sujiu Group) reflects the local government's expectations for the company's future growth amid a challenging period for the liquor industry [1][14]. Leadership Transition - Gu Yu has been appointed as the new Party Secretary of Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery, succeeding Zhang Liandong, who resigned due to work adjustments [1][3]. - Zhang Liandong served as the chairman for four and a half years, during which he significantly increased the company's revenue from over 20 billion yuan in 2020 to over 30 billion yuan in 2023 [6][9]. Zhang Liandong's Tenure - Under Zhang's leadership, the company adopted a "dual famous liquor, multi-brand, multi-category" strategy, enhancing the revenue contribution from the dual brands Yanghe and Shuanggou [10][11]. - Zhang also focused on high-end product development, launching premium products priced up to 4,699 yuan and introducing a series of aged wines [12]. - The company engaged in international marketing and aimed for younger consumer demographics, launching new products and participating in global forums [13]. New Leadership Challenges - Gu Yu, also from the Suqian government system, faces significant expectations to navigate the company through the current downturn in the liquor industry [15][16]. - Key performance indicators for Gu will include maintaining market leadership in the liquor sector and expanding the company's presence in core markets [17]. Financial Strategies - Yanghe Brewery has committed to a three-year dividend plan, ensuring annual cash dividends of no less than 70% of the net profit attributable to shareholders, with a minimum of 7 billion yuan each year [18]. - The company has also initiated a mid-year dividend of 3.5 billion yuan, marking its first such distribution since its listing [18].

绵甜感与饮后舒适度双提升，让这款"年销1亿瓶、年饮3亿人"的国民单品再度封神，短短两月开瓶率实 现近两位数增长，终端自点率同步攀升，渠道动销如活水奔涌，成为大众酒市场当之无愧的"性价比王 者"。 2025年上半年，白酒行业在深度调整中迎来新的发展机遇。面对市场变革，洋河股份以"产品焕新、品 牌升维、技术赋能"三驾马车并驱，在存量竞争中开辟出一条高质量发展的新航道。从第七代海之蓝的 全面焕新到洋河高线光瓶酒的破局上市，从海之蓝龙虾嘉年华的万人空巷到江苏十三市赛场的蓝色风 暴，洋河正以一场"体育+文旅+消费"的生态共振，书写白酒行业破局答卷。 产品焕新：国民基因与品质革命的"双向奔赴" 一直以来，洋河以"双名酒、多品牌、多品类"为核心，重点围绕"绵柔品质"和"年份老酒"定位下足功 夫，系统布局从高端引领到大众消费的立体化产品矩阵。 今年，第七代海之蓝的王者归来，成为洋河上半年最耀眼的明星。3月22日，成都战略产品升级发布会 上，这款承载着"年销1亿瓶，年饮3亿人次"传奇的国民白酒焕新登场，正式拉开洋河产品升级的序幕。 第七代海之蓝不仅是产品迭代，更是品质标准的重构。国家食品质量监督检验中心副主任程劲松通过详 实数 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zhang Liandong has resigned from his positions at Jiangsu Yanghe Brewery Co., Ltd., marking a significant leadership change amid the company's performance challenges in the liquor industry [1][5]. Group 1: Leadership Changes - Zhang Liandong applied for resignation from the board of directors, chairman, and various committee roles due to work adjustments, with his term originally set to end in April 2027 [1][2]. - The company has not disclosed information regarding Zhang's successor, stating that it will complete the necessary procedures for board elections promptly [5]. Group 2: Company Performance - Under Zhang's leadership, Yanghe's revenue grew significantly, reaching 25.35 billion yuan in 2021, a 20.14% increase, and surpassing 30 billion yuan in 2022, with 33.13 billion yuan in 2023 [2]. - However, the company faced a revenue decline of 12.83% in 2024, dropping to 28.88 billion yuan, and net profit fell over 30% to 6.67 billion yuan [3]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - Yanghe has implemented a "dual famous liquor, multi-brand" strategy, focusing on three core growth areas: Yanghe, Shuanggou, and Guijiu, while enhancing its digital transformation and international expansion [3]. - The company is developing high-end products like the "Handmade Class" vintage liquor and has introduced two new high-line light bottle liquors aimed at the mass consumer market [3]. Group 4: Industry Context - The liquor industry is undergoing a deep adjustment phase, presenting challenges for Yanghe's successor in achieving growth amidst changing consumer preferences and market dynamics [7].

相比茅台要做好 "线上+线下"双向赋能，洋河股份则是重点布局京东这一渠道。 最严"禁酒令"出台，以及近期线上大促火热，有酒企选择跟线上平台"拉近关系"。 近日，贵州茅台和洋河股份分别与重要线上平台进行座谈、达成共识及共推新品等，这被解读为白酒行 业"转风向"的信号，认为线上将受到白酒的重视。据南都湾财社-酒水新消费指数课题组记者了解，过 去白酒对于线上渠道"爱恨交加"，既对线上进行产品布局，但又对线上"破价""价格透明"等感到头痛。 值得注意的是，5月新"禁酒令"出台后，部分白酒销售渠道与消费场景受到限制，作为过去酒企重点布 局并获得成功的商务接待领域正受到前所未有的挑战。而销售占比不断扩大，且能实现库存出清、动销 加强的线上渠道正在承接因"禁酒令"而析出的产品，成为消耗库存的新出路。 市场变化酒企"抢滩"线上平台，茅台与洋河已"加码" 据了解，对于互联网这一渠道，白酒企业普遍是在接受和布局的同时，也是采取"有所保留"：一方面线 上渠道凭借巨大流量和交易额，可以实现白酒产品在消费端的深度流通；但另一方面，由于互联网渠道 扁平化，颠覆了白酒线下传统的层层经销模式，同时导致白酒价格趋于透明，引起了产品跌价。 不过 ...

Core Viewpoint - The collaboration between Jiugui Liquor and Pang Donglai has generated significant market interest, leading to a surge in Jiugui's stock price and market capitalization, indicating strong investor confidence in the potential success of their joint product launch [2][5]. Company Summary - Jiugui Liquor's stock price reached a limit up on June 30, closing at 43.99 yuan per share, resulting in a market value increase of 920 million yuan in one day [2]. - The partnership with Pang Donglai aims to enhance Jiugui's market presence and product innovation, with plans for deep collaboration in retail channel expansion and product promotion [5]. - Jiugui's revenue fell by 49.7% year-on-year, and net profit plummeted by 97.72%, highlighting the urgent need for revitalization through strategic partnerships [5]. Industry Summary - The collaboration represents a trend of traditional liquor companies partnering with retail platforms, reshaping distribution channels and power structures within the industry [4]. - The rise of new retail, particularly instant retail, is transforming the liquor market, with significant sales growth observed during events like the 618 shopping festival, where liquor sales on instant retail platforms surged dramatically [7][11]. - The industry is witnessing a shift towards direct sales models, with leading liquor companies increasing their direct-to-consumer strategies to enhance profit margins and control over distribution [10][13].

Core Insights - The recent surge in the price of Feitian Moutai indicates a return to normalcy in the liquor market after the 618 shopping festival [1] - The departure of Hou Xiaohai marks a new era for China Resources Beer, signaling the onset of a new cycle in the beer industry [1][4] Company Developments - Jiu Gui Jiu plans to launch low-alcohol products as part of its "two lows and one small" strategy, with products at 33°, 28°, 21°, and 18° degrees set to be introduced by the end of July [1] - Luzhou Laojiao has successfully developed a 28° version of its flagship product, Guojiao 1573, which is expected to be launched soon, alongside research into even lower alcohol content products [1][3] - Wuliangye is set to introduce a 29° product named "Wuliangye·Yijianqingxin" in the second half of the year [2] Financial Highlights - Luzhou Laojiao's shareholders approved a three-year cash dividend plan, with rates increasing to 75% by 2026, ensuring annual dividends of at least 8.5 billion yuan [3] - The dividend rates for major liquor companies, including Moutai, Wuliangye, and Yanghe, are expected to rise above 70% [3] Industry Trends - The liquor export market is expanding, with a total export value of 830 million USD from January to May 2025, marking an 8.6% increase year-on-year [7] - Conversely, the import market is declining, with a total import value of 1.37 billion USD, down 14.3% year-on-year [7] - The Jiangsu liquor market is experiencing a slight decline in sales, with overall sales close to 62 billion yuan [9] Strategic Collaborations - Diageo has formed a strategic partnership with JD.com, focusing on supply chain optimization and digital marketing [12] Regulatory Actions - The government of Renhuai City is taking measures to combat counterfeit liquor production following a report on fraudulent practices in the production of "vintage liquor" [10]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on bottom opportunities in the liquor sector while pursuing growth in consumer goods. The liquor industry is currently experiencing a downturn, particularly in high-end consumption scenarios, leading to a decline in demand. The report suggests that leading liquor companies with strong brands and distribution channels are likely to adapt and transform successfully [3][11][12] Summary by Sections Weekly Insights - From June 23 to June 27, the food and beverage index declined by 0.9%, ranking 28th among primary sub-industries, underperforming the CSI 300 by approximately 2.8 percentage points. The health products (+3.6%), baked goods (+2.7%), and seasoning and fermentation products (+1.2%) sectors performed relatively well [11][13] Market Performance - The liquor sector remains at a low point, with the impact of the "ban on alcohol" still felt. The lack of high-end consumption scenarios has further depressed industry demand. The report anticipates increased pressure on liquor companies' performance in the second quarter due to sluggish terminal sales and high channel inventory levels [3][11][12] Upstream Data - Some upstream raw material prices have decreased, which may alleviate cost pressures for companies in the beverage sector. For instance, the price of imported barley fell by 4.3% year-on-year in May 2025, and the quantity imported dropped by 47.8% [31][33] Recommended Companies - The report recommends gradually increasing positions in liquor stocks at low valuations, particularly focusing on leading companies such as Guizhou Moutai and Shanxi Fenjiu. It also highlights opportunities in consumer goods companies like Ximai Food, Youyou Food, Wancheng Group, and Bairun Shares, which are expected to benefit from new consumption trends [4][12][46]

Core Viewpoint - The new regulation prohibiting alcohol consumption in government receptions has significantly impacted the white liquor industry, leading to a decline in stock prices and creating a complex survival game for regional liquor companies [2][3][4] Policy Impact - The implementation of the new "ban on alcohol" is strict, affecting not only government personnel but also state-owned enterprises, causing a significant ripple effect in the white liquor market [3] - The China Alcohol Industry Association's report indicates that the ban has expanded from high-end liquor to all alcoholic beverages, marking a new phase in policy regulation [3][4] Market Dynamics - While some regional liquor companies face challenges due to their reliance on government consumption, others, particularly those focused on mass-market products, are finding new opportunities [4][5] - Sales of mid-range liquor (priced between 100-300 yuan) are increasing, contrasting with the decline in high-end liquor sales [9][10] Consumer Behavior - Ordinary consumer gatherings and business meals are becoming the mainstay of liquor consumption, suggesting that companies should focus on products that cater to everyday consumers [6][9] - The trend indicates a shift towards more affordable liquor options, with the market for products priced below 300 yuan expanding [10][14] Strategic Responses - Major liquor brands are adapting by launching new products aimed at the mass market, such as light bottles priced at 59 yuan [8][9] - Regional liquor companies are increasingly focusing on expanding their presence in county markets, competing with major brands for market share [13][15] Future Outlook - The white liquor industry is entering a new phase characterized by policy adjustments, structural changes in consumption, and intensified competition [14][15] - Companies that innovate in product offerings and expand their market reach while embracing local culture are likely to thrive in this evolving landscape [15]