Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the harsh realities of the futures market, indicating that a significant majority of participants are unlikely to achieve long-term success, with estimates suggesting that only 0.1% will be profitable over three years and 0.01% over ten years [3][5][8] - In 2024, the domestic futures trading volume reached 619 trillion, with an estimated total fee of around 80 billion, leading to the disappearance of approximately 140,000 medium-sized accounts annually [6][7] - The article discusses the impact of the "Big and Beautiful" Act on commodity investments, particularly how it may reduce demand for industrial metals like silver and copper while benefiting traditional energy sources like crude oil [9][10] Group 2 - The article outlines the current market dynamics for various commodities, indicating that the futures market is predominantly long for financial indices and certain metals, while short positions dominate in others like paper pulp and pure alkali [12] - It highlights the potential for a rebound in the glass market driven by policy and sentiment, suggesting specific trading strategies for both long positions and hedging [20][21][22] - The discussion on copper emphasizes the tactical implications of tariffs and the need for a realistic understanding of market conditions, suggesting that the current situation is more about short-term volatility rather than long-term direction [15][16]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that the steel industry is expected to enter a peak season, suggesting a favorable outlook for investments in this sector [1] Price Data Summary - The SW Steel Index is at 2,077, with a year-to-date change of +1.2% [3] - The price of rebar (HRB400 20mm) is 3,070 CNY/ton, showing a year-to-date change of +10% [3] - Hot-rolled coil is priced at 3,210 CNY/ton, with a year-to-date change of +6% [3] - Iron ore price index is at 93 USD/ton, with a year-to-date change of +7% [3] Inventory Summary - Total social inventory of five major steel products is 9,120,000 tons, with a year-to-date change of +3% [5] - Total inventory at steel mills is 4,260,000 tons, with a year-to-date change of +6% [5] - Port inventory of iron ore is 13,897,000 tons, with a year-to-date change of +5% [5] Supply and Demand Summary - Weekly production of five major steel products is projected to be around 1,000,000 tons [9] - Daily molten iron production is expected to reach approximately 230,000 tons [9] - The report highlights the operational rates of blast furnaces and electric furnaces, indicating a stable production environment [12][14]

Trade Policy Changes - President Trump signed two executive orders establishing a 10% "minimum baseline tariff" on trade partners, effective April 5, 2025[1] - Higher "reciprocal tariffs" will be imposed on countries with the largest trade deficits with the U.S., effective April 9, 2025[1] - A 25% tariff on imported cars took effect on April 3, 2025[1] Employment Data - U.S. ADP employment increased by 155,000 in March, significantly exceeding market expectations of 84,000[1] - Manufacturing jobs rose by 21,000, marking the largest increase since October 2022[1] - Despite policy uncertainties and low consumer confidence, the U.S. job market remains robust[1] Commodity Market Performance - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed results, with energy and chemical products mostly rising; PVC increased by 1.22%[1] - Black metals mostly declined, with aluminum oxide down by 1.61% and zinc down by 0.71%[1] - Agricultural products generally rose, with vegetable oil up by 1.78%[1] Global Asset Performance - NYMEX crude oil closed at $70.73, down 0.58%[4] - COMEX gold rose by 1.33% to $3190.30, with a year-on-year increase of 34.24%[4] - The S&P 500 index increased by 0.67% to 5670.97, with a year-on-year growth of 12.92%[4] Bond Market Insights - The 10-year Chinese government bond yield decreased by 1.36% to 1.79%[4] - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield slightly increased by 0.03% to 4.20%[4] - The China-U.S. interest rate spread stands at -2.41, reflecting a decrease of 0.05%[4]