在全球铁矿石市场的博弈大棋局中，中国正上演一场堪称亘古未有的华丽逆转。从过去被动接受国际定价、任人宰割的窘境，到如今逐步掌握谈判主动权、 推动定价机制重构，这不仅是国家资源战略的成功演绎，更是一场牵动全球产业链的产业革命开端，深刻改写着全球资源治理的原有逻辑。 自1981年铁矿石长期合同机制确立以来，中国凭借持续扩张的钢铁产业，已然成长为全球最大的铁矿石消费国，长期占据全球七成以上的消费份额。但令人 遗憾的是，过去数十年间，这一巨大消费市场的定价权却始终被美、澳等西方国家及国际矿商牢牢掌控，令中国在国际贸易中陷入"买得越多、亏得越多"的 被动境地。据行业测算，中国每年因被动接受虚高定价，不得不额外支出超过100亿美元的成本，巨额利益源源不断流入外国矿企口袋。然而，随着中国产 业布局的深化与市场话语权的觉醒，这种失衡局面正在悄然发生根本性转变。 事实上，自2004年起，中国就已稳居全球铁矿石最大买家地位，但美、澳等国的矿商却凭借资源垄断优势，持续推高价格攫取暴利。以力拓、必和必拓、淡 水河谷、FMG为首的四大矿商，垄断了全球70%的铁矿石资源供应，形成了强议价能力的寡头格局。尤其在全球供应链日益复杂、国际地缘政 ...

«——【·前言·】——» 自1981年铁矿石长协机制以来，中国作为全球最大消费国，定价权却始终被美、澳等西方国家把持，大 批利润白白流失海外。 自1981年全球铁矿石长协机制正式确立以来，中国钢铁行业就长期深陷"买得多、话不响"的被动困境。 作为全球当之无愧的铁矿石最大消费国，中国市场常年吸纳全球75%左右的海运铁矿石，却始终被美、 澳等西方国家把持着定价话语权，每年都有大批本可用于产业升级的利润白白流失海外。 在过去的四十多年里，以美国标普铁矿石指数为核心的定价体系，就像一把无形的枷锁，牢牢捆住了中 国企业的手脚。 不过，在2025年的最后几天，中国对铁矿石的定价权再次扩大战果，开始变被动为主动。 «——【·中国买家的定价权逆袭之路·】——» 知情人士透露，力拓与福德士河此次的调整并非临时起意，而是与中国矿产资源集团长期谈判后的结 果。 澳大利亚矿业巨头凭借低成本开采优势和地理运输便利，长期占据中国铁矿石进口市场的主导地位，形 成了"卖方说了算"的垄断格局。 中国钢厂只能被动接受层层抬高的报价，即便面临利润被严重挤压的困境，也难有议价余地。这种不对 等的博弈状态，成为中国钢铁产业高质量发展路上的一大阻碍。 ...

那个红色的暂停按钮，是在很多人毫无心理准备的情况下被按下的，不久前，一向在全球海运航线上畅 通无阻的澳大利亚矿业巨头必和必拓，在中国的大门口被拦了下来。 理由很简单，也很官方：矿石品质未达标，短短几个字，没有情绪、没有指控，却直接把货挡在了港口 之外。 要理解这次动作的分量，就必须直面一个长期被忽视、却极其刺眼的现实。 放在过去几十年，这种场景几乎不可想象，因为在铁矿石这条黑色产业链上，中国长期扮演的角色，从 来不是挑剔的甲方，而是急着吃饭、不得不低头的超级买家。 过去的现实是，只要能保证供应，哪怕品位一般、价格偏高，我们也往往只能接受，不是不清楚吃了 亏，而是没有退路，钢厂要开炉，基建要上马，整个国家的工业机器都等着原料续命。 在这种情况下，哪怕心里再不甘，也只能捏着鼻子认，可这一次，中国没有选择"照旧收货"，而是直接 把门关上了，这一举动的意义，远远不是一次技术性的退货，而是一次态度明确的摊牌。 很多人第一眼看到的，只是必和必拓吃瘪的尴尬，却没看明白更深层的变化：中国为什么敢在这个时间 点说"不"。 其实这不在一时一事，而在一个长期积累的痛点，利润分配的极端失衡，几十年来，铁矿石定价权牢牢 攥在少数西方矿 ...

从困境到破局：中国钢铁行业如何 争夺铁矿石定价权？ 联合资信 工商评级三部 中国作为全球最大钢铁生产国，长期面临铁矿石资源受制于外矿、定 价受制于指数、利润受制于矿业巨头的三重困境。为破解这一"矿"世难 题，中国正通过组建"国家队"整合需求、开拓多元化供应体系、构建"人 民币+中国指数"定价新机制三大路径，系统性争夺定价权。当前已取得阶 段性突破，但定价权的重塑是一场长期博弈，未来，中国仍需在提升资源 自主、打破美元惯性、增强金融话语权等方面持续攻坚。 www.lhratings.com 研究报告 1 一、铁矿石定价权的三重枷锁 作为全球钢铁生产和消费第一大国，中国粗钢产量自 1996 年起长期稳居世界首 位，2024 年约 10.05 亿吨，占全球总产量的 53%。然而，中国钢铁行业的高速发展始 终受制于铁矿石资源这一"命脉"，长期面临"对外依存度高、定价权缺失、利润被 挤压"的多重困境，成为制约钢铁行业高质量发展的"矿"世难题。 1. 资源枷锁：先天不足与高度对外依存 中国钢铁行业庞大的生产规模与国内铁矿石资源的先天不足形成了尖锐矛盾。中 国铁矿探明储量虽居全球第四，但呈现"贫矿多、富矿少"的特征，平均品 ...

很多人可能还没意识到，12月初，一艘从非洲启航的散货船，正在悄悄改变全球工业体系的底层规则。 它没有航母的轰鸣，没有导弹的闪光，却比任何军事行动都更具长期威力。 因为它装载的，是中国钢铁工业最核心、最脆弱、被卡了二十多年的命门资源——铁矿石。 而这一次，中国不再是买家。 而是规则的重写者。 一、这一船矿石，为什么意义如此之大？ 如果只从表面看，这不过是一船二十万吨的铁矿石，全球每天都有无数矿船在跑。 但真正懂产业的人都清楚： 铁矿石不是普通商品，而是工业体系的"血液"。 钢铁是什么？ 是基建、制造、军工、能源、交通、造船、机械、房地产的基础。 没有铁矿石，就没有钢铁； 没有钢铁，就没有现代化国家。 而过去二十多年，中国在这个最基础、最关键的环节上，长期处于被动地位。 二、中国曾经是"最大买家，却最没话语权"的典型 一个反常识的现实是： 为什么？ 原因只有一个： 铁矿石被高度垄断。 全球海运铁矿，长期被三大集团掌控： 它们控制着矿山、港口、航线、定价机制。 三、西芒杜真正打破的，不是矿产稀缺，而是垄断结构 很多人以为，西芒杜的意义在于： "铁矿石多。" 价格怎么来？ 不是市场竞争，而是： 中国钢企再多、需求再大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolving dynamics of the iron ore market, highlighting China's increasing influence and strategic maneuvers in securing pricing power and supply sources, moving from a passive buyer to an active player in the global market [1][13]. Group 1: Historical Context - In 2003, China's imports of Australian iron ore surged, displacing domestic low-grade ore due to the attractiveness of high-grade 62% ore [1]. - From 2004 to 2005, major companies raised prices, forcing Chinese steel mills to accept high costs, leading to chaotic market conditions with rampant bribery and insider trading [3]. - The 2008 financial crisis caused a significant drop in spot prices, intensifying internal conflicts within the industry and prompting the Chinese government to seek changes in pricing mechanisms [3][5]. Group 2: Market Changes and Strategies - After the collapse of long-term contracts, pricing began to align with the Platts index, creating a less transparent pricing mechanism for Chinese buyers [6]. - Between 2010 and 2024, China's steel production continued to grow, with iron ore consumption projected at 1.956 billion tons in 2024, of which 1.237 billion tons will be imported, with Australia supplying 743 million tons [6]. - China aims to increase its equity mines to over 20% by 2025, with significant investments in overseas projects, particularly in Africa and South America, exemplified by the Simandou project in Guinea [8][10]. Group 3: Recent Developments - China's import structure is shifting, with Australia's share of exports to China decreasing from 60% to 45%, enhancing China's bargaining power [11]. - In late 2023, China initiated negotiations for pricing in RMB, leading to major Australian miners like BHP agreeing to RMB settlements, which could reshape global iron ore trade practices [11][13]. - By the end of 2025, it is anticipated that around 70% of iron ore trade will involve RMB settlements, significantly increasing China's influence over pricing and trade terms [13].

Core Insights - The global iron ore market is undergoing significant changes with the official launch of the Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, which is crucial for China to reduce its reliance on Australian and Brazilian iron ore imports [1][3][8]. Group 1: Project Overview - The Simandou iron ore project has an estimated reserve of at least 3 billion tons, with proven reserves of 4.4 billion tons, making it one of the largest and highest-grade iron ore deposits globally, with an average iron content exceeding 65% [3][8]. - The project faced numerous challenges, including frequent changes in mining rights and logistical difficulties due to its inland location, which hindered development for decades [4][6][7]. Group 2: Investment and Development - A consortium of Chinese and Singaporean companies formed a winning alliance in 2019, planning to invest $12 billion to build a heavy-haul railway connecting Simandou to the port, along with securing a 25-year mining license [7][8]. - The total investment for the Simandou project exceeds $20 billion, covering mining, railway, and port infrastructure, with operations now entering the extraction phase [8][20]. Group 3: China's Iron Ore Demand and Pricing Power - China, as the world's largest steel producer, accounted for over 53% of global crude steel production in 2024, leading to substantial iron ore demand, with imports projected at 123.65 million tons, representing 72% of global seaborne iron ore imports [10][14][12]. - Despite being the largest importer, China historically had limited pricing power in the global iron ore market, often being at the mercy of Australian suppliers [16][18]. Group 4: Strategic Moves for Pricing Power - The establishment of the China Mineral Resources Trading Group in 2022 aimed to consolidate procurement and improve negotiation power, resulting in a significant reduction in iron ore prices from a peak of $207 per ton in 2021 to around $100 [18][20]. - China's control over the Simandou project is substantial, with Chinese companies holding significant stakes, which enhances China's leverage in global iron ore pricing [21][25]. Group 5: Challenges and Future Outlook - Despite recent advancements, China's quest for greater pricing power in the iron ore market faces challenges due to entrenched pricing systems and the influence of major financial institutions [27][28]. - Efforts to promote iron ore transactions in RMB and the establishment of a domestic iron ore trading market are part of China's strategy to enhance its bargaining position and reduce dependency on traditional pricing mechanisms [29][30].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses China's significant progress in gaining pricing power over iron ore, transitioning from a passive role to one where it can influence negotiations and pricing, a change that has taken 30 years to achieve [1]. Group 1: Historical Context - From 1980 to 2009, international iron ore pricing was dominated by a few mining companies and steel mills, leaving Chinese steel mills with no bargaining power [3]. - After the collapse of the long-term contract system in 2009, financial capital entered the market, leading to a new pricing mechanism based on the Platts index, which shifted the focus from supply-demand to financial speculation [3][10]. Group 2: Strategic Developments - China has established its own iron ore price index, incorporating domestic supply and demand, which has helped break the monopoly of the Platts index [3]. - The Chinese government has promoted resource integration by forming large state-owned enterprises to consolidate purchasing power, enhancing negotiation strength [5]. Group 3: Changes in Transaction Methods - A significant shift has occurred in settlement methods, moving from dollar-denominated transactions to negotiations in RMB, which represents a strategic move away from the dollar system [6][8]. - The development of the Simandou mine in Guinea, where Chinese companies have become key stakeholders, provides a strategic supply advantage [6][8]. Group 4: Infrastructure and Supply Chain Control - China's investment in infrastructure, including railways and ports, has enabled efficient transportation of iron ore, demonstrating control over the entire supply chain [8]. - With established pricing indices, centralized purchasing, and reliable supply sources, China can now negotiate from a position of strength, impacting the profitability of mining companies [8][10]. Group 5: International Reactions and Future Outlook - International reactions have been marked by surprise, acknowledging a potential shift in the global iron ore pricing landscape due to China's long-term strategic investments [10]. - The current situation reflects a significant change from being excluded from pricing discussions to being able to set conditions, indicating a gradual but impactful transformation in the industry [12].

Core Insights - The first batch of 2 million tons of iron ore from the Simandou mine in Guinea is set to be shipped to China, marking a significant shift in the global steel industry [2] - This initial shipment is seen as a starting point that could reshape the global steel market and challenge the dominance of the three major mining companies [2] Group 1: Industry Dynamics - The three major mining companies, BHP, Rio Tinto, and Vale, have historically monopolized the global iron ore market, capturing a significant portion of the industry's profits [4] - China consumes 70% of the world's iron ore but has limited pricing power due to the dominance of these three companies [4] - The profit margins for these mining giants are exceedingly high, with costs around $10 per ton but selling prices reaching $130 per ton, resulting in a profit margin exceeding 90% [4][6] Group 2: Financial Disparities - In 2024, the net profit of the three mining giants is projected to reach 184 billion yuan, while China's steel industry collectively earns only 29 billion yuan, with less than 50% of steel companies making a profit [4][6] - The average profit per ton for Chinese steel production is only 29 yuan, compared to 184 yuan for the mining companies, highlighting a stark disparity in profitability [6] Group 3: Simandou Mine Significance - The Simandou mine is the largest and highest quality open-pit iron ore mine globally, with proven reserves of 4.41 billion tons and an expected annual output of 120 million tons [7] - The mine was previously controlled by Rio Tinto but was not developed for decades, as the company preferred to maintain high prices by limiting supply [9] - Chinese companies now control approximately 75% of the Simandou mine's production capacity, having successfully developed the mine and built a 600-kilometer railway to facilitate exports [11] Group 4: Market Impact - The 120 million tons of annual output from Simandou represents about 10% of China's iron ore imports, which could disrupt the pricing power of the three major mining companies [11] - The introduction of this new supply could lead to a breakdown of the existing pricing agreements among the mining giants, allowing China to regain pricing power [11] - Forecasts suggest that iron ore prices could decline by 15% to 20% over the next three years, potentially dropping to a range of $80 to $100 per ton [11] Group 5: Broader Economic Implications - The development of the Simandou mine is expected to benefit Guinea significantly, potentially making it the fourth-largest iron ore exporter globally and creating 50,000 direct jobs [13] - The project is anticipated to stimulate growth in logistics and equipment manufacturing sectors within Guinea [13] - The shift in the global iron ore market dynamics signifies a potential end to the historical exploitation of developing countries by Western mining giants [14]

Core Insights - The West Simandou iron ore project in Guinea, with over 3 billion tons of reserves and 65% iron content, is poised to significantly impact the global iron ore supply chain [3][4] - China is transitioning from being a passive importer to an active participant in mining, pricing, and transportation, potentially gaining unprecedented shipping iron ore pricing power [3][6] - The project is expected to enhance China's manufacturing cost advantages and supply chain resilience, while also contributing significantly to Guinea's GDP [6][9] Industry Dynamics - The global iron ore market has been dominated by Australia and Brazil, but China's involvement in projects like Simandou is reshaping this dynamic [3][4] - Analysts predict a potential decline in global iron ore prices to around $85 per ton in the next three years, which would be significantly lower than previous highs [6] - The shift in pricing power indicates a move from a supply chain that was previously reactive to one that is more proactive, with China now influencing the market [4][9] Project Challenges - The Simandou project faces challenges including Guinea's political instability, infrastructure issues, and social tensions, which could affect its operational stability [4][8] - Despite China's strong execution capabilities in infrastructure projects, the success of Simandou will depend on maintaining cooperation and trust in a complex international environment [8] Strategic Implications - The project represents a broader strategic shift for China, moving from a resource-consuming nation to a resource-controlling entity, thereby altering the landscape of global manufacturing [8][9] - As high-grade iron ore becomes more consistently supplied, the dependency on a few dominant suppliers will diminish, leading to a more balanced market [6][9] - The implications of this shift extend beyond mere resource acquisition, as it involves a comprehensive approach to exploration, investment, construction, and market influence [6][9]