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铂族金属周报:租赁利率高企,板块表现强势-20260124
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-01-24 13:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - From January 16 to 23, 2026, the price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 3.73% to 497.95 yuan/gram, and the price of the main platinum contract rose 10.96% to 685.9 yuan/gram. The strong performance of gold and silver prices this week drove the strong performance of platinum group metals. The suspension of tariffs did not ease the tight spot market of platinum group metals. The overseas platinum group metal lease rates remained high. Against the backdrop of the overall setback of the US dollar's credit, it is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in platinum and palladium strategies, and platinum group metal prices still have room to rise [10][9]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1. Weekly Assessment and Market Outlook - **Price Changes**: From January 16 to 23, 2026, the price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 3.73% to 497.95 yuan/gram, and the price of the main platinum contract rose 10.96% to 685.9 yuan/gram. This week, the price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 14.79% to 2773.2 US dollars per ounce, and the price of the main NYMEX palladium contract rose 9.73% to 2047 US dollars per ounce [10][9]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of January 23, the CME platinum inventory was 20.71 tons, an increase of 975.6 kilograms this week. The CME palladium inventory rose 166 kilograms to 6.73 tons [9]. - **Lease Rates**: As of January 23, the one - month implied lease rate for spot platinum was 15.14%, and the one - month implied lease rate for palladium was 7.62%, both at the highest levels in the same period in the past five years [9]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Against the backdrop of the overall setback of the US dollar's credit, it is recommended to maintain a long - term thinking in platinum and palladium strategies, and platinum group metal prices still have room to rise [9]. 3.2. Market Review - **Platinum Price**: The price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 14.79% to 2773.2 US dollars per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 20 was 79009 lots. As of January 23, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 681.5 yuan/gram. Affected by the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy, the premium of domestic platinum significantly rebounded [17][23]. - **Palladium Price**: The price of the main NYMEX palladium contract rose 9.73% to 2047 US dollars per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 20 was 19167 lots [20]. - **Lease Rates**: As of January 23, the one - month implied lease rate for spot platinum was 15.14%, and the one - month implied lease rate for palladium was 7.62% [24]. - **CFTC Net Positions**: In the week of January 20, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds decreased from 7536 lots to 4906 lots. The current net position of palladium managed funds is a net short of 255 lots [27][30]. 3.3. Inventory and ETF Position Changes - **Platinum ETF Position**: As of January 23, the total position of major overseas platinum ETFs was 76.02 tons [41]. - **Palladium ETF Position**: As of January 23, the total position of major overseas palladium ETFs was 15.56 tons [44]. - **Platinum Inventory**: The US platinum exchange inventory remained at a high level. As of January 23, the CME platinum inventory was 20.71 tons, an increase of 975.6 kilograms this week [48]. - **Palladium Inventory**: The CME palladium inventory continued to rise, reaching 6.73 tons as of January 23 [53]. 3.4. Supply and Demand - **Platinum Supply**: The platinum production forecast of the world's top 15 mines shows that the platinum production of the top 15 mines in 2026 will reach 124.24 tons, a 2.5% decrease from 127.47 tons in 2025 [59]. - **Palladium Supply**: The production data of the world's top 10 palladium mines shows that the production of the top 10 palladium mines in 2026 will reach 147.73 tons, a 1.1% decrease from 149.37 tons in 2025 [61]. - **Platinum Imports in China**: As of November, China's cumulative platinum imports reached 91.64 tons, a slight 4.82% year - on - year decrease [64]. - **Palladium Imports in China**: The cumulative palladium imports were 31.21 tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [67]. 3.5. Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Relevant charts show the price differences between different months of NYMEX platinum, such as the 1 - 4 spread, 4 - 7 spread, 7 - 10 spread, and 10 - 1 spread [83][85]. - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Relevant charts show the price differences between different months of NYMEX palladium, such as the 3 - 6 spread, 6 - 9 spread, 9 - 12 spread, and 12 - 3 spread [92][96]. - **Cross - Market Spread**: Charts show the price differences between the London spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, as well as the London spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price [97].
铂族金属周报:美国铂钯进口关税政策暂缓,现货驱动减弱-20260117
Wu Kuang Qi Huo· 2026-01-17 14:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's implementation of a temporary suspension of key metal tariffs this week has alleviated the tightness in the platinum and palladium spot market, causing the price increase to slow down. The "temporary suspension order" has led to the regression of the premium supported by tariffs, and the price difference between the two regions is returning to the historical average. The easing of the driving force for spot inflows into the US has also reduced the shortage of overseas platinum - group metal spot. In terms of macro - driving factors, the increasing probability of Kevin Warsh, who is more rational in monetary policy, becoming the new Fed Chairman has short - term suppression on the upward driving force of the precious metals sector. It is recommended to maintain a wait - and - see attitude towards platinum and palladium strategies [9][12] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Assessment and Market Outlook - From January 9th to 16th, 2026, the price of the main palladium contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rose 0.16% to 469.35 yuan/gram, and the price of the main platinum contract rose 4.46% to 610.05 yuan/gram. This week, the price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 2.86% to $2342.9 per ounce, and the price of the main NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.47% to $1846.5 per ounce [10][12] - The data shows various changes in platinum and palladium such as closing prices, trading volumes, open interests, inventories, CFTC positions, and ETF holdings from January 9th to 16th, 2026 [12] 3.2 Market Review - **Platinum Price**: This week, the price of the main NYMEX platinum contract rose 2.86% to $2342.9 per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 13th was 65,949 lots. As of January 16th, the spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 602.46 yuan/gram, and the premium of the domestic platinum market has significantly recovered due to the adjustment of the import VAT exemption policy. As of January 16th, the one - month implied lease rate of platinum spot was 18.48%. On January 13th, the net long position of NYMEX platinum managed funds increased from 7,337 lots to 7,536 lots [17][21][22][25] - **Palladium Price**: This week, the price of the main NYMEX palladium contract fell 1.47% to $1846.5 per ounce, and the total open interest as of the latest reporting period on January 13th was 18,156 lots. As of January 16th, the one - month implied lease rate of palladium was 6.41%. The current net position of palladium managed funds is a net short of 96 lots [18][22][28] - **CFTC Platinum and Palladium Commercial Net Short Positions**: Relevant data and charts are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [29][30] - **Price Ratios**: Charts of platinum - palladium and platinum - silver price ratios are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [32][33] 3.3 Inventory and ETF Holdings Changes - **Platinum ETF Holdings**: As of January 16th, the total holdings of major overseas platinum ETFs were 75.96 tons [39] - **Palladium ETF Holdings**: As of January 16th, the total holdings of major overseas palladium ETFs were 15.56 tons [42] - **Platinum Inventory**: The inventory of the US platinum exchange remains at a high level. As of January 16th, the CME platinum inventory was 20.64 tons [46] - **Palladium Inventory**: The CME palladium inventory has continued to decline, reaching 6.44 tons as of January 16th [51] 3.4 Supply and Demand - **Mineral Platinum**: The platinum production forecast of the top 15 global mines shows that the platinum production of these mines in 2026 will reach 124.24 tons, a 2.5% decrease compared to 127.47 tons in 2025 [56][57] - **Mineral Palladium**: The production data of the top 10 global palladium mines shows that the palladium production of these mines in 2026 will reach 147.73 tons, a 1.1% decrease compared to 149.37 tons in 2025 [59] - **China's Platinum Imports**: As of November, China's cumulative platinum imports reached 91.64 tons, a slight 4.82% year - on - year decrease [62] - **China's Palladium Imports**: China's cumulative palladium imports were 31.21 tons, a 19.71% year - on - year increase [65] - **Automobile Production**: Data on automobile production in China, Japan, Germany, and the US are presented, including production volume and year - on - year changes, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [66][69][71] - **Global Supply - Demand Balance Sheets**: Global platinum and palladium supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2025 are presented, showing supply and demand data in different years [75][76] 3.5 Monthly Spread and Cross - Market Spread - **NYMEX Platinum Monthly Spread**: Charts of NYMEX platinum 1 - 4, 4 - 7, 7 - 10, and 10 - 1 spreads are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [79][80] - **NYMEX Palladium Monthly Spread**: Charts of NYMEX palladium 3 - 6, 6 - 9, 9 - 12, and 12 - 3 spreads are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [87][89][93] - **Cross - Market Spread**: Charts of the price difference between the London spot platinum price and the NYMEX platinum price, and the price difference between the London spot palladium price and the NYMEX palladium price are presented, but no specific summary data is provided in the text [94]
铂钯系列(一):品种概况与产业链
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-07-23 12:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - Platinum and palladium are important members of the platinum - group metals (PGMs), with high demand in practical applications. Their resource distribution is concentrated, and the supply chain has an "oligopoly" structure, which is easily affected by various factors [1][14]. - The platinum - group metal industry chain includes upstream mining, mid - stream processing and recycling, and downstream terminal applications and investment. Each link has its own characteristics and development trends [14]. - The demand for platinum and palladium in different terminal applications varies. For example, palladium is more common in gasoline engine exhaust treatment, while platinum is superior in diesel engine exhaust catalysts. The application of platinum and palladium in emerging industries such as hydrogen energy is expected to grow [41][48]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Platinum and Palladium Variety Overview 3.1.1 Natural Properties - Platinum (Pt) and palladium (Pd) are silver - white metals, belonging to the platinum - group metals (PGMs) along with ruthenium, rhodium, iridium, and osmium. Platinum has a crustal content of five - hundred - millionths, and palladium has a crustal content of one - hundred - millionth [1]. - Platinum has a high melting point, good ductility, excellent electrical and thermal conductivity, high density, and is chemically inert. It is mainly used in industrial catalysts, jewelry, electronics, etc. Palladium has a relatively lower melting point, can adsorb gases like hydrogen, is corrosion - resistant, and is mainly used in the catalyst field [2][4]. 3.1.2 Distribution and Classification of Platinum - Group Resources - Platinum - group metals exist in nature in the form of natural elements and complex ores. Platinum deposits are generally related to ultramafic rocks and can be formed through magma action, hydrothermal processes, and exogenous deposition [5]. - Platinum - group metal ores can be divided into primary deposits and exogenous sand deposits. The primary deposits can be further divided into vein platinum deposits mainly composed of platinum - group metals and copper - nickel - type deposits hosted in ultrabasic rocks [5]. - Global platinum - group metal resources are mainly concentrated in five regions: South Africa's Bushveld Complex, Russia's Norilsk - Talnakh region, the US's Stillwater Complex, Zimbabwe's Great Dyke, and Canada's Sudbury [11]. 3.2 Platinum - Group Metal Industry Chain 3.2.1 Upstream Mining - The platinum - group metal supply chain has an "oligopoly" structure. Most of the raw material supply and smelting are in the hands of a few integrated mining and smelting producers [14]. - In 2024, the global PGMs resource was estimated to exceed 100,000 tons, and the reserves exceeded 81,000 tons. South Africa's PGMs reserves were 63,000 tons, accounting for nearly 80% of the global total [21]. - The production of platinum and palladium mines is facing bottlenecks due to factors such as resource oligopoly, declining ore grades, rising mining costs, and strict environmental policies. In 2024, the global palladium mine production was 190 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.65%, and the platinum mine production was 170 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.02% [25]. 3.2.2 Platinum - Group Material Supply and Recycling - Global precious metal multinational groups such as Umicore, Johnson Matthey, Heraeus, and Tanaka dominate the platinum - group metal material processing and recycling fields [30]. - As high - grade resources become scarce, secondary resources of platinum - group metals are becoming increasingly important. However, domestic recycling enterprises face fierce competition, and the supply of secondary resources is becoming increasingly tight [30]. 3.2.3 Terminal Applications - **Automotive Exhaust Catalysts**: Palladium is more common in gasoline engine exhaust treatment, while platinum is superior in diesel engine exhaust catalysts. The choice of platinum - group metals in catalysts depends on catalytic effect, cost - effectiveness, availability, and exhaust emission standards [41]. - **Jewelry**: Platinum is more suitable for high - end jewelry markets due to its high density, good ductility, and chemical stability. Palladium has limited use in jewelry due to its hardness and tendency to darken [45]. - **Other Industrial Applications**: Platinum and palladium are widely used in chemical industry, glass manufacturing, electronics, medical, hydrogen energy, and other fields. Their application in emerging industries such as hydrogen energy is expected to grow [46][48]. 3.2.4 Investment Channels - Platinum can be invested in through physical products (platinum bars, platinum coins), financial products (platinum futures contracts, platinum ETFs), and platinum - related stocks. The investment demand for platinum is increasing, especially in the context of high gold prices [50].