Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures on November 27, 2025, at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, highlighting the expected trading strategies and market dynamics for these metals. Group 1: Futures Launch and Trading Strategies - Platinum and palladium futures will be listed with initial contracts PT/PD2606 to PT/PD2610 [4] - Recommended trading strategy for the first day includes buying on dips, with PT2606 expected to trade between 390-420 CNY/gram and PD2606 between 340-370 CNY/gram [6][26] - If prices break above the upper range, short positions may be considered [6][26] Group 2: Delivery Rules and Price Anchoring - The cheapest delivery form for platinum and palladium may be powder, as it typically trades at a discount compared to ingot forms [5][7] - The delivery rules specify that registered warehouse receipts must be for domestic platinum/palladium ingots, while factory receipts can include ingots, sponge, and powder forms [7] - Futures prices are expected to anchor slightly above the spot price of platinum/palladium powder due to delivery preferences [7] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Platinum supply is constrained, with a projected 5% year-on-year decline in mine supply to 171 tons in 2025, driven by low prices affecting mining profitability [16][18] - Recycling supply of platinum is expected to increase by 8% year-on-year to 12 tons in 2025, partially offsetting the supply shortage [16] - Palladium supply is tightening due to reduced production from mining companies, with a significant portion of palladium supply coming from recycling [23] Group 4: Market Trends and Price Outlook - The article anticipates that platinum prices will be supported by strong demand from the automotive sector, with a 21% year-on-year increase in car sales in China [17] - Palladium demand is expected to weaken due to the rising share of electric vehicles, impacting its price support [23] - The initial pricing center for platinum futures is estimated around 405 CNY/gram and for palladium around 355 CNY/gram [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium prices are highly sensitive to supply disruptions and capital flows, with historical volatility ranking high among metals. Their price trends are significantly influenced by the evolution of supply - demand structures and the macro - environment. Demand substitution is the long - term logic for price fluctuations, while price extremes are affected by macro - fluctuations, supply disruptions, and external event shocks [2][132]. - The cost of mining platinum and palladium forms a strong bottom - support for prices in the medium term. In 2024, the total sustaining cost of global platinum mines increased by 11.8% year - on - year to $884 per ounce. At present, the price of platinum is $1350 per troy ounce, reducing the possibility of further production cuts by mining enterprises, but higher prices may be needed to stimulate more supply [2][134]. - The platinum - palladium ratio reflects demand substitution and financial attribute premiums. The core driver of substitution is a long - term and significant relative premium, and the substitution cycle usually takes 3 - 5 years. After the spread between platinum and palladium converges from a high level, it will likely form an inversion due to the redistribution of downstream demand [2][134]. - The gold - platinum ratio can effectively isolate the safe - haven attribute of gold and the industrial attribute of platinum, essentially reflecting changes in economic prospects and market risk preferences. It is an effective leading indicator for predicting stock market returns, with a high correlation with the S&P 500's next - year cumulative return but a weak correlation with the A - share market [3][134]. - Platinum and palladium are positively correlated with gold and negatively correlated with the US dollar index due to their investment and safe - haven attributes; their prices are positively correlated with copper prices because of overlapping manufacturing demands; and platinum prices are trend - related to crude oil prices as rising oil prices push up mining costs and support platinum and palladium prices [4][134]. Summary by Directory 1. Introduction - The previous report comprehensively sorted out the platinum and palladium industry chains, global supply - demand situations, and their influencing factors. This report conducts an in - depth review of the historical prices of platinum and palladium, analyzes their key influencing factors, and explores medium - and long - term investment opportunities [14]. 2. Historical Supply - Demand Review of Platinum and Palladium Platinum - Supply: Historically, global platinum supply has shown a trend of high - speed growth followed by high - level shock and decline. South Africa has long dominated global platinum supply, with its share decreasing from 70% in 1990 to 58% in 2024. After 2005, recycled platinum supply gradually increased. From 1990 - 2006, platinum supply expanded rapidly, but then declined due to factors such as decreased mine grades and labor disputes in South Africa. After 2008, global primary platinum supply remained at a low level, while recycled platinum production mainly fluctuated [16]. - Demand: Overall, platinum demand has shown a trend of continuous increase followed by shock. Automobile, jewelry, and investment demands contribute the main marginal elasticity. From 1990 - 2008, global platinum demand continued to rise, mainly driven by jewelry demand before 1999 and automobile exhaust catalysts after 2000. After the 2008 financial crisis, investment demand increased, and after 2015, platinum demand entered a re - balancing stage [17]. Palladium - Supply: Historically, global palladium supply has generally shown a trend of shock and upward movement, with greater volatility than platinum. Primary palladium supply has evolved from near - monopoly by Russia to a bipolar oligopoly pattern of Russia and South Africa. After 2017, recycled palladium supply became an important source. From 1990 - 2000, Russia released a large amount of palladium inventory, and after 2000, supply shifted to mine output. From 2005 - 2019, recycled palladium production increased, and from 2020 - 2025, supply was relatively tight due to sanctions and production cuts [19][20]. - Demand: Overall, palladium demand increased and then decreased from 1990 - 2002 and then showed a long - term upward trend with shock. After 2020, it mainly fluctuated. The growth of palladium demand mainly comes from the automobile field. In the 1990s, palladium demand in the automobile exhaust catalyst field increased explosively, but it declined sharply in 2001. After 2015, the "Dieselgate" event and upgraded emission standards promoted the increase of palladium demand, but then it gradually declined due to the increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles [20][21]. 3. Historical Price Review of Platinum and Palladium 1990 - 2001: Monopoly Behavior and Capital Resonance Triggered a Bubble - like Market for Palladium - From the beginning of 1990 to March 1997, platinum and palladium prices maintained a wide - range shock. After 1997, Russia restricted the export of platinum - group metals, and hedge funds hoarded goods, creating a shortage expectation. In 2000, the panic squeeze on TOCOM accelerated the rise of palladium prices, and platinum and palladium prices were significantly inverted. In 2001, Russia resumed palladium exports, and palladium prices plummeted. During this period, platinum prices mainly followed palladium prices, and the substitution effect of palladium occurred in various demand fields [22][25][26]. 2002 - 2008: Macro and Fundamental Resonance Drove Platinum to a Long - Bull Market - Palladium prices were under pressure due to long - term supply - demand surplus. In 2002, palladium prices dropped sharply, and although there was a short - term rebound in 2003, the overall situation remained weak. In contrast, platinum prices showed a long - bull trend. From 2002 - 2008, platinum supply was in short supply in most years, and the average annual price increased from $539 per ounce in 2002 to a historical high of $2192 per ounce in 2008, driven by factors such as the growth of platinum demand in the automobile and jewelry fields and the weakening of the US dollar. In 2008, the financial crisis led to a sharp decline in platinum prices [38][41][42]. 2009 - 2018: Pricing Returned from Macro to Fundamental, and Palladium Substituted Platinum in the Long - Term - Platinum prices generally rose and then fell, while palladium prices showed an upward trend with shock. From 2009 - 2012, palladium prices performed better than platinum prices. After 2013, the platinum - group metal market was affected by macro - policy changes and industry structural changes. The "Dieselgate" event in 2015 was a turning point, which led to a significant decline in platinum demand and an increase in palladium demand. From 2016 - 2018, upgraded global emission standards promoted the bull market of palladium and the weakening of platinum prices [45][50][57]. 2019 - 2025: External Factor Shocks Intensified, and Platinum and Palladium Demand Re - balanced - Palladium prices experienced a complete bull market, reaching a historical high of $3015 per ounce in March 2022 and then significantly回调. Platinum prices were relatively weak, mainly fluctuating in the range of $800 - $1000 per ounce and rebounding in 2025. During this period, global macro - fluctuations intensified, and multiple factors such as emission standard upgrades, geopolitical conflicts, and the transformation of new - energy vehicles affected the market supply - demand pattern of platinum and palladium. In 2025, platinum and palladium showed a pattern of "platinum strong, palladium weak" [62][67][73]. 4. Pricing Logic and Inter - Variety Linkage of Platinum and Palladium Mining Cost Forms Bottom Support, and Capex Has a Weak Correlation with Supply - Platinum - group metal mining is capital - intensive, and new mine development has a long cycle. The Capex of platinum and palladium mining enterprises is related to the current prices of platinum and palladium, but primary platinum and palladium supply has no obvious correlation with Capex due to external events in South Africa and Russia. Rising production costs in 2024 increased the bottom support of prices. Currently, platinum prices are at the median of the cost range, and higher prices may be needed to stimulate more supply [84][89][92]. Platinum - Palladium Ratio: Long - Term High Premium Drives Demand Substitution - The platinum - palladium ratio reflects demand substitution and financial attribute premiums. Since 1990, there have been three substitution effects between platinum and palladium. The core driver of substitution is long - term and significant relative premium, and the substitution cycle usually takes 3 - 5 years. Currently, the platinum - palladium ratio has been rising, and there is still room for further increase, but downstream substitution may be more smooth if the ratio rises significantly [98][101][108]. Gold - Platinum Ratio: An Excellent Indicator for Predicting Stock Market Returns - The gold - platinum ratio reflects changes in economic prospects and market risk preferences. Since 1990, it has gone through several stages of evolution. It is an effective leading indicator for predicting stock market returns, with a high correlation with the S&P 500's next - year cumulative return but a weak correlation with the A - share market [113][116][117]. Linkage of Platinum and Palladium with Other Indicators - Financial attribute: Platinum and palladium are positively correlated with gold and negatively correlated with the US dollar index, and platinum has a higher correlation. - Industrial attribute: Platinum and palladium prices are positively correlated with copper prices due to overlapping manufacturing demands. - Cost structure: Platinum prices are trend - related to crude oil prices. Rising oil prices push up mining costs and support platinum prices, and there is also a certain relationship between platinum demand and oil prices [126][127][128].