来源：经济日报 近期，贵金属市场再次成为投资者关注的焦点。2025年12月24日，黄金、白银同步创历史新高，国际现货黄 金首次突破4500美元/盎司，现货白银最高触及72.7美元/盎司，年内涨幅分别超过70%和逼近150%。然而，就 在市场情绪高涨之时，贵金属价格却突然迎来"急转弯"，12月29日现货白银剧烈回调，单日跌幅达到9.08%， 市场波动风险凸显。 市场人士普遍认为，市场情绪与资金轮动也是助推本轮涨势的重要因素。2025年全年贵金属多次创新高，市 场形成强烈看涨惯性，叠加国内铂钯期货上市吸引市场关注度提升，投机资金与趋势资金加速入场，进一步 放大了价格涨幅。此外，全球央行仍在延续自2022年以来的"购金热"，对金价形成长期托底。世界黄金协会 数据显示，各国央行2025年10月份净买入53吨黄金，环比增长36%，官方储备配置需求凸显贵金属战略价 值。 不过，市场在快速上涨过程中也积累了大量风险。近期贵金属与工业金属期货市场波动风险加剧，美国芝商 所集团近期宣布全线上调包括金、银、钯金、锂等在内的金属期货交易保证金。上海期货交易所也从2025年 12月30日收盘结算时上调保证金标准和涨跌停板幅度。对于此 ...

热门品种机构观点 一、铂钯主力合约：现货结构性矛盾存在但并未边际变紧，铂钯期货再度跌停 广期所铂、钯期货主力合约延续弱势，开盘封跌停板，铂、钯均收跌13%，分别报589.85元/克，447.45 元/克。 国泰君安期货表示，铂钯价格出现回撤，截至收盘，广期所铂钯各合约均已跌停。欧美盘铂钯继续跟随 白银深跌，核心驱动源于欧美盘资金动向与内盘元旦假期前的避险操作：前期获利资金借欧美盘流动性 窗口入场兑现收益，叠加假期临近主力抽离部分资金，对于前期的快速上涨进行了一定修正，形成技术 性回调，铂金技术形态健康，目前暂未打破市场核心逻辑；钯金撤步明显，技术面上目前已跌破20日均 线，叠加多头情绪显著放缓，恐和铂金走出进一步的分化。目前铂钯在贵金属大趋势下无法走出自己的 行情，下方寻找到支撑的节点需关注白银探底回弹节点。目前高位波动显著加剧，品种资金容纳量有限 导致敏感度提升。若资金趋势突发反转，可能触发瀑布式回调，元旦期间外盘恐波动剧烈。目前现货结 构性矛盾存在但并未边际变紧，ETF流入步调稳定，基本面和宏观面并没有过多的变化，故前期追踪的 高频数据目前已不能支撑预测趋势反转的精准节点。短期需关注内外盘价差波动与假期流 ...

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-30 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 铂钯 | ★★★★ | 铂钯：昨日铂钯价格出现回撤，截至收盘，广期所铂钯各合约均已跌停。欧美盘铂钯继续跟 随白银深跌，核心驱动源于欧美盘资金动向与内盘元旦假期前的避险操作：前期获利资金借 欧美盘流动性窗口入场兑现收益，叠加假期临近主力抽离部分资金，对于前期的快速上涨进 行了一定修正，形成技术性回调，铂金技术形态健康，目前暂未打破市场核心逻辑；钯金撤 步明显，技术面上目前已跌破 20 日均线，叠加多头情绪显著放缓，恐和铂金走出进一步的 分化。目前铂钯在贵金属大趋势下无法走出自己的行情，下方寻找到支撑的节点需关注白银 探底回弹节点。目前高位波动显著加剧，品种资金容纳量有限导致敏感度提升。若资金趋势 突发反转，可能触发瀑布式回调，元旦期间外盘恐波动剧烈。目前现货结构性矛盾存在但并 未边际变紧，ETF 流入步调稳定，基本面和宏观面并没有过多的变化，故前期追踪的高频数 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 2025-12-30 所长 早读 今 日 发 ...

消息面上，白银基金限购100元。国投瑞银白银期货证券投资基金（LOF）宣布从12月29日起，将A类 基金份额的定期定额投资金额上限重新下调至100元，C份额暂停申购。此前这一额度曾被放宽至500 元，以引导套利资金平抑溢价。 另外，国投白银LOF发布公告称，将于26日开盘起至10:30停牌后复牌，并警示二级市场交易价格存在 明显溢价风险。截至12月25日，该基金二级市场收盘价为2.804元，较12月24日的基金份额单位净值 1.9278元高出45%。 有专业人士分析，限购不是为了制造稀缺，而是因为在交易所持仓上限和公募禁止高杠杆的双重制度约 束下，这只白银LOF已经达到可承载规模的物理极限。如果放开申购，新增资金将无法按合同买入对应 的白银期货，只能闲置或买债，从而严重稀释仓位、制造巨大的跟踪误差，构成对持有人和监管的违约 风险。因此，限购是基金公司在制度约束下唯一能采取的合规止损手段，而不是主观选择。 值得注意的是，白银今年涨幅已接近150%，成为今年涨幅最高的贵金属品种。 12月24日午后，杭州一位"70后"向钱江晚报透露："太疯狂了，在白银LOF基金上赚了3万多元，今天跑 了。"这位投资者表示，她是9月 ...

新华财经北京12月25日电（记者 王小璐）在交易所加强监管、外盘重挫及多头资金获利了结共同作用下，此前连续上涨的广期所铂钯期货价格今日大幅 低开，但两个品种之后走势显著分化，铂金自日内低点大幅拉涨一度超15%，尾盘涨超4%，而钯金主力合约则一度跌停，反弹幅度也明显偏弱，终盘以 7.65%的跌幅领跌国内商品期货市场。 市场预计铂钯期货短期内将维持高波动状态，投资者需注意风险。长期来看，在基本面差异下，铂钯未来走势或将延续分化。 转自：新华财经 市场震荡加剧 铂钯分化延续 涨势背离基本面 资金短期获利了结致铂钯期价大幅波动 24日晚，NYMEX铂族金属期货结束了此前连续上涨的势头，分别以0.63%和6.90%跌幅收跌。 图为NYMEX铂金主力合约走势日K线图 在市场分析看来，本次铂、钯价格的调整属于价格的正常修复。国贸期货研究院贵金属与新能源研究中心点评指出，此前受益于宏观驱动、供需结构失 衡、资金情绪助推等因素共振，铂、钯价格持续大幅上涨，国内铂、钯期货价格更是连续多日涨停。但资金情绪主导下的大幅拉涨，也使得铂、钯价格在 一定程度上脱离基本面的支撑。另一方面，海外迎来圣诞假期，市场流动性下降，获利了结压力也进一 ...

钯金供应在中期仍然短缺，库存低于多年低位，缓冲能力较弱。另外，俄罗斯占全球矿产供应40%以 上，地缘政治或贸易风险(如美国232调查)等仍将存在。除此之外，钯金ETF持仓量虽然从量级上较铂金 ETF仍有较大差距，但在今年以来被持续增持，显示投资者情绪回暖，随着国内铂钯期货上市，投资热 情有望扩大。低库存+高供应集中度+潜在投资流入，使得钯金成为高波动性博弈产品。若关税落地或 供应链中断，价格短期反弹幅度可能较大，但缺乏长期基本面支撑，不建议重仓持有。 瑞达期货（002961）：钯金价格或加剧高位回落风险 钯期货主力跌近10%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 新湖期货 钯期货不建议重仓持有 瑞达期货 钯金价格或加剧高位回落风险 新湖期货：钯期货不建议重仓持有 12月25日盘中，钯期货主力合约封跌停板。截止发稿，钯主力合约报515.65元，跌幅9.99%。 钯金在汽车催化剂领域的过度集中化，以及新能源汽车的持续普及，使其需求端预期走弱，钯金市场正 逐步由供不应求转向供应过剩，供需格局预期较为宽松，但降息预期所带动的偏多情绪或给予价格一定 支撑，钯金当前偏低的价格可能使其重新成为具备成本优势 ...

12月23日早盘，广期所铂钯期货主力合约触及涨停，再创上市以来新高，为上市以来第四次涨停。截至发稿， 铂主力合约报619.95元/克，涨幅10.00%；钯主力合约报549.65元/克，涨幅8.91%。 | 铂主连 | | | | | | | 下载APP添加自选 重要行情优先看 APP | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 619.95 56.35 10.00% | | | | | | | 3 交易中 2025-12-23 09:16:30 | | | | 今开:600.00 | | | 昨结:563.60 | | 最高: 619.95 | | 最低:596.45 | | | | 均价:615.34 | | | 今结: -- | | 涨停: 619.95 | | 跌停: 507.25 | | | | 昨收:568.45 | | | 日增仓: 1081.00 | | 成交量: 27110.00 | | 持仓: 37399.00 | | | | 分时 5日 | 日K | 周K | 月K રસ્ત્રે | 15સ ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the elements in the trading logic of platinum and palladium are more numerous than before. The fundamental contradiction in the platinum and palladium spot market and the optimistic macro - loose environment will support the rise of platinum and palladium in the first half of the year. Platinum may have a higher increase than palladium due to better fundamentals and stronger financial attributes. In the second half, if the spot contradiction eases, prices may fall. If US tariffs are implemented, the global supply - chain pattern of platinum and palladium will be reshaped. The expected price range for platinum is $1500 - 2800 per ounce in US dollars and 380 - 730 yuan per gram in RMB; for palladium, it is $1200 - 2250 per ounce in US dollars and 300 - 590 yuan per gram in RMB [2]. - In 2026, it is recommended to focus on cross - market arbitrage opportunities caused by spot structural imbalances. Consider a long - platinum and short - palladium ratio strategy. For the medium - to long - term unilateral strategy, it is advisable to go long on platinum at low prices, and for short - term intraday or weekly bands, consider allocating palladium, that is, go long on palladium when it has a deep correction [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 2025 Platinum and Palladium Price Review 3.1.1 Platinum Price Logic Review - In 2025, platinum had a 93% increase by December 15. It broke through the 10 - year oscillation range, with macro - sentiment as the core catalyst and good fundamentals as the support. The price went through different stages including shock - building, explosive growth, callback - oscillation, and secondary growth [6]. 3.1.2 Palladium Price Operation - In 2025, palladium had a unique "oscillation - climbing and long - short game" market, with a 67% increase by December 15. The core driving logic was the triple game of macro - liquidity loosening, supply - demand structural contradiction, and industrial transformation pressure. In the first half, it oscillated, and in the second half, it rose significantly due to macro - liquidity changes and market - structure marginal changes [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic Sentiment - In 2025, the global macro - environment was characterized by "loose - dominated, resilient growth, and co - existing differentiation". Major economies implemented loose policies, with the global GDP growth rate expected to be in the 2.7% - 3.4% range and inflation gradually falling to 3% - 4.2%. However, trade protectionism and policy uncertainties still posed potential pressures [20]. - In 2026, the global economy will slow down moderately, and the loose cycle will continue with significant differentiation. The attractiveness of anti - inflation assets such as precious metals is expected to increase. In 2025, platinum's price soared due to price - to - return advantages, supply - demand gaps, and growth - type demand, but it cannot truly replace gold due to core shortcomings in liquidity, stability, and lack of currency attributes [21][22]. 3.3 Supply Side in 2026 3.3.1 Primary Mineral Differentiation - South Africa's power supply has improved, but there are still local shortages. In 2026, mines and residents may face stepped power rationing. The production rhythm of core mining enterprises is stable, but there is no obvious growth momentum. The All - In Sustaining Costs (AISC) of core mining enterprises have soared, and Capital Expenditure (CAPEX) has decreased, which will drag down the realization of existing and new production capacities to some extent [26][33][39]. 3.3.2 Recycling Supply - Global platinum and palladium recycling enterprises have sufficient production - capacity reserves. Driven by high prices, they have a strong willingness to increase production. It is expected that in 2026, the global platinum and palladium recycling supply scale will increase significantly, with an expected incremental supply of 15 - 20 tons in China [46][47]. 3.3.3 Spot Structural Contradiction - Affected by the US 232 investigation and the anti - dumping and counter -vailing investigations on palladium, platinum and palladium inventories have been hoarded in the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), leading to frequent liquidity crises in the New York and London markets and violent fluctuations in the price spread between the two markets. Before the judgment results are announced in the first half of 2026, the spot structural imbalance will remain an "irreconcilable contradiction" [48][50][52]. 3.4 Demand Side in 2026 3.4.1 Hybrid Electric Vehicles Replace Traditional Energy Vehicles - The global automotive market is shifting towards new energy vehicles. It is expected that in 2026, the sales volume of pure - electric and hybrid vehicles will reach 26.1 million. Hybrid electric vehicles have a higher total platinum - palladium load than traditional fuel vehicles, which alleviates the decline in platinum - palladium demand. Globally, platinum demand in the automotive field is expected to increase by 0.91%, while palladium demand is expected to decrease by 0.06% [59][70][71]. 3.4.2 Industrial Demand - In the glass - fiber industry, China's new production capacity is expected to increase platinum demand by 3.3 tons in 2026. In the petrochemical industry, platinum demand has a moderate growth expectation. The promotion of fuel - cell vehicles is declining, and there is no hope of explosive growth in the short term. Overall, platinum and palladium industrial demand is expected to increase by 3% in 2026 [79][84][91]. 3.4.3 Jewelry Demand - China's platinum jewelry demand has declined for two consecutive years, and India has restricted platinum jewelry imports. It is expected that global platinum jewelry demand will decline by 10% in 2026, while palladium jewelry demand is expected to remain stable [92][94][95]. 3.4.4 Investment Demand - Platinum and palladium investment products are niche. In 2026, as prices rise in the first half, ETFs may continue to increase their holdings; when prices reach a high level, there may be profit - taking. It is expected that the investment demand for platinum and palladium will decline by 30% throughout the year [97][103][106]. 3.5 Conclusion and Investment Outlook - On the supply side, in 2026, the global platinum mineral supply is expected to remain stable or increase slightly, while the palladium mineral supply will be stable. The recycling supply will be the core incremental source, with an expected increase of 6 tons of platinum and 10 tons of palladium [107]. - On the demand side, there is significant differentiation. In the automotive exhaust - catalysis field, hybrid vehicles help stop the decline in platinum - palladium demand. In 2026, platinum will be in a tight - supply balance, and palladium will have a slight supply surplus [108][109]. - The platinum and palladium spot market has a significant structural contradiction, which will support price increases in the medium term. Key factors to track include the release of hidden inventories, price differentiation between platinum and palladium, and the change in investment sentiment [111].

所长 早读 国泰君安期货 2025-12-18 期 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 期货研究 2025-12-18 所长 早读 今 日 发 现 | 板块 | 关注指数 | | --- | --- | | 碳酸锂 | ★★★★ | 碳酸锂：基本面变化有限，市场情绪驱动锂价向上。一方面，宜春市自然资源局拟注销 27 宗采矿许可证，虽然所涉矿山此前多处于停产状态，对实际供需影响有限，但市场将此解读 为宜春地区锂矿资源管控趋严的信号，并预期未来云母锂供应增量可能受限。另一方面，市 场对大厂复产时间的预期不断推迟，在未复产的情况下，周度库存仍保持 2000 吨以上的去 化速度，现实层面的持续去库，叠加未来需求向好的预期，共同支撑了多头的看涨情绪。不 过需注意的是，目前现货市场成交仍显清淡，下游对当前高价接受度不高，期货与现货市场 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 2 出现一定背离。整体来看，当前市场情绪偏乐观，短期锂价预计高位运行，波动加剧，建议 谨慎持仓。 | 所 | | 长 | 首 | 推 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Fed officials' dovish statements have increased market expectations of a December rate cut and the number of rate cuts next year, leading to a rebound in precious metal prices, with silver showing strong performance. The expected end - point of this round of rate cuts has been lowered. The influence of Trump on the Fed's independence is evident, and the US employment situation is slowing. Powell believes that changing economic risks provide more reasons for rate cuts, and the rate - cut process will continue. With weakening US economic data and concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence, central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Supported by rate - cut expectations and safe - haven demand, the shortage of silver现货 continues, and precious metal prices are expected to be supported. Platinum and palladium futures prices are expected to continue a relatively strong and volatile trend after the domestic listing and the repair of the price difference with the overseas market [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Fed officials' dovish statements and rising rate - cut expectations led to a rebound in the price of US gold. As of last Friday, US gold closed at $4,256 per ounce, up 4.8% for the week. The upper pressure level is $4,350, and the lower support level is $4,170 [6]. - Fed officials' dovish statements, rising rate - cut expectations, and the continued shortage of silver现货 led to a rebound in the price of US silver. As of last Friday, it had a weekly gain of 13.4%, closing at $57.1 per ounce. The lower support level is $55, and the upper pressure level is $60 [9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The factors mentioned above support the precious metal prices. The price of platinum and palladium futures is expected to continue a relatively strong and volatile trend. In terms of inventory and position: Comex gold inventory decreased by 12,661.56 kg to 1,130,833.15 kg, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 447 kg to 90,873 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 122,252.50 kg to 14,207,209.64 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 39,611 kg to 558,882 kg. This week, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 197,731 lots, a decrease of 27,471 lots from last week; the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 40,567 lots, a decrease of 3,155 lots from last week. It is expected that the price will continue to be relatively strong, and it is recommended to hold long positions and be cautious about opening new positions [11][13]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The content mainly presents various macro - economic indicator charts, including the US dollar index, euro - US dollar and pound - US dollar exchange rates, real interest rates, yield spreads, gold - silver ratio, Fed balance sheet scale, WTI crude oil futures price trends, etc., but no specific analysis conclusions are given [15][17][19] 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 29 was 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the previous value of 220,000 [26] 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US Treasury Secretary Besent will conclude the second - round interview for the new Fed chairman later that day, and Trump may announce the candidate before Christmas. Bloomberg reported that Trump's allies and advisors think White House economic advisor Hassett is the most likely candidate, but the White House refuted the report. - The minutes of the European Central Bank's October 29 - 30 meeting showed that policymakers were not eager to cut rates due to high uncertainty, and some officials even thought no further easing was needed. - The Fed said that US economic activity has changed little in recent weeks, about half of the 12 regional Fed districts reported weakening employment and declining consumer spending, which may increase concerns about the labor market weakness as the next rate decision approaches [27] 3.6 Inventory - Comex gold inventory decreased by 12,661.56 kg to 1,130,833.15 kg, and SHFE gold inventory increased by 447 kg to 90,873 kg. Comex silver inventory decreased by 122,252.50 kg to 14,207,209.64 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased by 39,611 kg to 558,882 kg [13][32] 3.7 Fund Position - As of October 14, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 197,731 lots, a decrease of 27,471 lots from last week; the net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 40,567 lots, a decrease of 3,155 lots from last week [13][36] 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Monday (December 1), at 23:00, the US November ISM Manufacturing PMI will be released. - On Wednesday (December 3), at 21:15, the change in the US November ADP employment number will be announced. - On Friday (December 5), at 23:00, the US September personal spending monthly rate will be released [38]