Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoint - The platinum and palladium markets show obvious fundamental differentiation. Geopolitical risks and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are short - term disturbing factors for both. Platinum has a long - term tight supply logic, with a continuous shortage in the market, while palladium has a weak medium - term fundamental outlook. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have increased, and the performance of US CPI inflation data should be closely watched. If oil prices continue to rise, platinum and palladium may face pressure. It is recommended to conduct light - position range - bound trading [2]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the platinum main contract was 562.55 yuan/gram, up 23.00; the closing price of the palladium main contract was 423.55 yuan/gram, up 16.35. The platinum main - contract position was 10387.00 hands, down 277.00; the palladium main - contract position was up 90.00 hands [2]. - **Spot Market**: The spot price of platinum on the Shanghai Gold Exchange (Pt9995) was up 20.20, and the average spot price of Yangtze River palladium was 408.00, up 24.00. The platinum main - contract basis was - 2.80, down; the palladium main - contract basis was - 15.55, up 7.65 [2]. - **Supply - Demand Situation**: Platinum's CFTC non - commercial long positions (weekly) were 9966.00, down 243.00; palladium's were 3003.00, down 342.00. The total supply of platinum in 2025 was expected to be down 0.80 tons; the total supply of palladium was expected to be 220.40 tons, down 5.00. The total demand for platinum in 2025 was expected to be up 25.60 tons; the total demand for palladium was expected to be 261.60 tons, down 27.00 [2]. - **Macro Data**: The US dollar index was 98.71, down 0.24; the 10 - year US Treasury real yield was down 0.02%. The VIX volatility index was 25.50, down 3.99 [2]. 3.2. Industry News - US President Trump said the war with Iran might end soon. The G7 finance ministers discussed not releasing strategic oil reserves. Russian President Putin and US President Trump talked about the Middle - East situation related to Iran and the negotiation process of the Ukraine issue. The energy price surge is reshaping European interest - rate trading. The CME "FedWatch" shows the probabilities of the Fed's interest - rate cuts at different times [2]. 3.3. Market Performance - During today's trading session, platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange rebounded significantly. The platinum 2606 contract rose 4.26% to 562.55 yuan/gram, and the palladium 2606 contract rose 4.02% to 423.55 yuan/gram [2]. 3.4. Fundamental Analysis - **Platinum**: The long - term supply is tight. In 2026, global platinum supply is expected to increase slightly. Although demand is dragged down by the decline in fuel - vehicle production and the slowdown of platinum - palladium substitution, the increase in industrial demand from the glass - industry expansion and the growth of platinum coin and bar investment demand will push the total annual demand to 237 tons, resulting in a shortage of about 7 tons and supporting the platinum price [2]. - **Palladium**: The medium - term fundamentals are weak. Palladium demand is highly dependent on gasoline - vehicle catalysts and faces long - term pressure from the increase in electric - vehicle penetration and the acceleration of platinum substitution [2]. 3.5. Key Events to Watch - March 10, 18:00: US February NFIB Small Business Confidence Index; 22:00: US February existing - home sales data - March 11, 20:30: US February CPI monthly and annual rates - March 13, 20:30: US January core PCE price index; 22:00: US January durable - goods orders [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran, the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fluctuating inflation expectations and interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in precious metal prices. The Fed's January interest - rate meeting kept rates unchanged, the US employment situation has slowed, and Powell said changing economic risks give the Fed more reason to cut rates. The Middle East situation has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the market expects one rate cut this year, with the rate - cut expectation turning more hawkish. The US economic data is trending weaker, and there are concerns about the US fiscal situation and the Fed's independence. Central bank gold purchases and de - dollarization trends remain unchanged. Driven by industrial demand, the silver spot market remains tight, and the mid - term price centers of gold and silver are rising. The platinum and palladium lease rates remain high, and it is expected that the prices of platinum and palladium will have support at the bottom. It is recommended to pay attention to the progress of the Iranian situation and the US February CPI data to be released on Wednesday [11]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - The ongoing war between the US, Israel and Iran and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran have led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices, fluctuating inflation and interest - rate cut expectations, causing a correction in gold and silver prices. As of last Friday, the US gold closed at $5181 per ounce, down 2.2% for the week, with an upper resistance level at $5350 and a lower support level at $5100. The silver price had a weekly decline of 10.3%, closing at $84.7 per ounce, with a lower support level at $80 and an upper resistance level at $93 [6][9]. 3.2 Weekly View - The war between the US and Iran continues, affecting precious metal prices. The Fed's stance on interest rates, the slowdown in the US employment situation, and the market's expectation of a rate cut this year are factors influencing the precious metal market. The mid - term price centers of gold and silver are rising, and platinum and palladium prices are expected to have support. It is recommended to pay attention to the Iranian situation and the US February CPI data [11]. 3.3 Overseas Macroeconomic Indicators - The report presents data on the US dollar index, euro - US dollar exchange rate, pound - US dollar exchange rate, real interest rates (10 - year TIPS yield), US Treasury bond yields (10 - year and 2 - year), yield spreads, Fed balance - sheet size, gold - silver ratio, and WTI crude oil futures price trends [15][17][19]. 3.4 Important Economic Data of the Week - The US February non - farm payrolls decreased by 92,000, far lower than the expected 59,000 and the previous value of 130,000; the February unemployment rate was 4.4%, higher than the expected 4.3% and the previous value of 4.3%; the February ADP employment change was 63,000, higher than the expected 50,000 and the previous value of 22,000 [25]. 3.5 Important Macroeconomic Events and Policies of the Week - US President Trump claimed the right to decide Iran's next leader, and the war between the US, Israel and Iran escalated. The US and Israeli warplanes bombed multiple locations in Iran. Trump said Iran was actively contacting the US to reach an agreement, and the US would take further action to ease the oil market pressure. The US February non - farm payroll report showed a significant decline in employment and a rise in the unemployment rate, raising concerns about the economic outlook [26]. 3.6 Inventory - This week, the COMEX gold inventory decreased by 7,441.72 kg to 1,028,962.21 kg, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) gold inventory decreased by 27 kg to 105,033 kg. The COMEX silver inventory decreased by 347,942.67 kg to 10,859,659.34 kg, and the SHFE silver inventory decreased by 50,644 kg to 255,952 kg [13]. 3.7 Fund Holdings - As of March 3, the net long position of gold CFTC speculative funds was 159,891 contracts, a decrease of 2,297 contracts from last week. The net long position of silver CFTC speculative funds was 22,674 contracts, an increase of 1,951 contracts from last week [13]. 3.8 Key Points to Watch This Week - On Wednesday, March 11, at 20:30, the US February CPI annual rate (unadjusted) will be released. On Friday, March 13, at 20:30, the US January PCE price index annual rate will be released [37].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened significantly. The recent strong performance of the US dollar has suppressed the attractiveness of non - interest - bearing assets, and the market's consensus expectation of a marginal hawkish shift in the Fed's tone has put pressure on the precious metals market. Geopolitical tensions in the US - Iran situation have increased market risk - aversion [7]. - The platinum market is in a continuous shortage, with a significant decline in above - ground inventory. Supply in South Africa is constrained by factors such as power, cost, mine aging, and insufficient capital expenditure. On the demand side, automotive catalysts are the core support, and geopolitical tensions have enhanced platinum's attractiveness as a strategic asset. The medium - term logic of palladium is weaker than that of platinum, with relatively single - structured demand and facing long - term pressure from electric vehicle penetration and platinum substitution [7]. - In the short term, there are many macro - level disturbances, and high market volatility may continue. It is recommended to conduct light - position trading within a range [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Week - to - Week Highlights - The main platinum and palladium contracts on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened significantly. The strong US dollar and the market's expectation of a hawkish Fed have pressured the precious metals market. Geopolitical tensions in the US - Iran situation have kept market risk - aversion high [7]. - The platinum market is in shortage, and South African supply is constrained. Automotive catalysts support platinum demand, and geopolitical factors enhance its attractiveness. Palladium's medium - term logic is weaker due to single - structured demand and long - term pressure [7]. - Short - term market volatility may continue, and it is recommended to trade within a range with a light position [7]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - The precious metals market declined, and platinum and palladium futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange weakened significantly. As of March 6, 2026, the main palladium 2606 contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was at 421.50 yuan/gram, down 9.33% for the week; the main platinum 2606 contract was at 560.50 yuan/gram, down 10.14% for the week [8][12]. - The net long positions of NYMEX platinum and palladium continued to diverge. As of February 24, 2026, the net long position of NYMEX platinum was 19,605 contracts, a 5.77% week - on - week increase; the net long position of NYMEX palladium was - 1,758 contracts, a 7.59% week - on - week decrease [13][15]. - The basis of NYMEX platinum and palladium main contracts weakened this week. As of March 5, 2026, the NYMEX platinum basis was - 23.60 US dollars/ounce, and the NYMEX palladium basis was 7.50 US dollars/ounce, both weakening week - on - week [16][20]. - The basis of the main platinum contract on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange strengthened, while that of the main palladium contract weakened. As of March 5, 2026, the platinum main contract basis was - 9.70 yuan/gram, strengthening week - on - week; the palladium main contract basis was - 23 yuan/gram, weakening week - on - week [21][23]. - NYMEX platinum and palladium inventories both increased. As of March 5, 2026, NYMEX platinum inventory was 583,451.75 ounces, a 0.99% week - on - week increase; NYMEX palladium inventory was 205,097.54 ounces, a 10.11% week - on - week increase [24][28]. - Platinum and gold prices showed strong synchronicity, and the gold - to - platinum ratio remained basically unchanged this week [29]. 3. Industrial Supply and Demand Situation - As of December 2025, the import and export volumes of platinum and palladium both increased [35]. - The demand for platinum and palladium in automotive exhaust catalysts has been declining year by year due to the significant rise in the share of the new energy vehicle market. The total global demand for platinum and palladium has shown a mild slowdown [41][47]. - The supply patterns of platinum and palladium have diverged. Geopolitical tensions have tightened platinum supply [52]. - The price difference between the domestic and foreign markets of platinum and palladium main contracts widened slightly this week [56]. 4. Macroeconomic and Options - This week, the US dollar index and US Treasury yields strengthened simultaneously [60].

Group 1: U.S. Tariff Policy - The U.S. government is preparing to impose new tariffs on various industries following a Supreme Court ruling that deemed its large-scale tariff policy illegal [2] - The Department of Commerce is initiating investigations under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, focusing on products such as large batteries, cast iron, plastic pipes, and industrial chemicals [2] - The U.S. Trade Representative's office is also starting new trade investigations under the Trade Act of 1974, which may lead to additional tariffs due to perceived unfair trade practices [2] Group 2: U.S. Sanctions on Iran - The U.S. Treasury Department has announced sanctions against over 30 entities, individuals, and oil tankers to combat what it describes as illegal oil sales from Iran [3] - The sanctions coincide with upcoming indirect negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, indicating a continued strategy of maximum pressure on Iran [3] Group 3: Platinum and Palladium Market Trends - The global platinum group metals market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with platinum and palladium prices rising significantly, with platinum surpassing $2300 per ounce and palladium stabilizing around $1880 per ounce [4] - Supply constraints are identified as a key driver of this price surge, with over 75% of global platinum supply coming from mining, primarily in South Africa, and 76% of palladium supply from Russia and South Africa [4] - Demand for platinum and palladium is shifting, with a projected 12% decrease in demand from gasoline vehicles by 2026, while the penetration of hybrid vehicles is accelerating [4] Group 4: Macroeconomic Influences on Precious Metals - The potential for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve is seen as supportive for precious metal prices, with expectations of at least two rate cuts in 2026 [5] - Geopolitical tensions, including potential military conflicts, are contributing to a risk-averse sentiment that supports platinum and palladium prices [6] Group 5: Future Price Projections - Short-term projections indicate that platinum prices may remain strong due to supply disruptions and Fed rate cut expectations, while palladium prices may face downward pressure due to demand shifts towards electric vehicles [6] - Long-term outlook suggests that platinum will maintain a supply shortage due to increasing demand from hydrogen energy applications, while palladium may face oversupply as its primary use in gasoline vehicles declines [6][7]

Group 1: Macro Economic Research - The article discusses the potential for a "hawkish" new leadership at the Federal Reserve, particularly focusing on Kevin Warsh's views [4] - It highlights the ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the U.S. and China's economic cycles and the implications of tariffs [4] - The article emphasizes the importance of supply-side reforms and their connection to larger economic cycles, suggesting a significant shift in China's economic strategy [4] Group 2: Commodity Futures Research - The narrative around commodity trading is evolving, with a focus on the psychological aspects of greed and fear influencing market prices [4] - There is a warning about the potential illusion of a "rotating bull market" in commodities, urging caution among investors [4] - The article provides insights into the current phase of the commodity cycle, particularly regarding chemical products and their market dynamics [4] Group 3: Selected Articles from Experts - Notable figures like Ray Dalio and 洪灝 provide insights into the future of commodities and the Chinese stock market, predicting significant movements and potential bull markets [6] - The article discusses the implications of trade wars and how they may lead to unexpected favorable outcomes for China [6] - It also addresses the potential for interest rate cuts in 2025, with predictions of a 0.75 percentage point decrease and a 1 percentage point reserve requirement reduction [6] Group 4: Futures Variety Handbook - The article includes a comprehensive guide on new futures products, such as platinum and palladium, detailing their market strategies and historical context [7][9] - It emphasizes the importance of understanding the cost curves of various commodity sectors, including energy and agricultural products [5] - The article serves as a resource for investors preparing for new market entries and strategies in futures trading [9]

Core Insights - In 2025, China's domestic gold production is projected to reach 381.339 tons, an increase of 4.097 tons or 1.09% year-on-year [2][3] - The total gold consumption in China is expected to be 950.096 tons, with a notable increase in gold bars and coins consumption by 35.14% [5][6] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a total trading volume of 31,400 tons, reflecting a 1.02% increase year-on-year, while the trading value surged by 43.89% [6] Production and Supply - Domestic raw gold production is estimated at 381.339 tons, with imported raw gold at 170.681 tons, leading to a total gold production of 552.020 tons, a 3.35% increase [3] - Significant breakthroughs in gold exploration and development projects have been reported, including the discovery of a large low-grade gold deposit in Liaoning and the successful production commencement of several key mining projects [3] Consumption Trends - Gold consumption in China is expected to decline by 3.57%, with jewelry consumption dropping by 31.61%, while gold bars and coins consumption is expected to surpass jewelry for the first time [5][6] - The industrial demand for gold is steadily increasing, driven by the growth of emerging industries such as electronics and renewable energy [6] Market Dynamics - The trading volume of gold ETFs in China increased significantly, with a total increase of 149.91% year-on-year, indicating a growing interest in gold as an investment [7] - The price of gold has seen substantial increases, with the London spot gold price rising by 62.90% and the Shanghai gold price increasing by 58.78% from the beginning of the year [6] Regulatory and Market Response - The introduction of platinum and palladium futures and options on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange has diversified the precious metals derivatives market [7] - Exchanges have implemented measures to stabilize the market amid significant price fluctuations, including adjustments to trading limits and margin requirements [7]

Core Insights - The domestic gold ETF in China is projected to increase its annual net increase to 133.118 tons in 2025, a 149.91% rise from 53.266 tons in 2024, with total holdings reaching 247.852 tons by the end of December 2025 [1] - China's gold reserves increased to 2306.32 tons by the end of December 2025, with a total increase of 26.75 tons throughout the year [1] - The gold production in China for 2025 is expected to reach 552.020 tons, a 3.35% increase year-on-year, with domestic raw gold production at 381.339 tons and imported raw gold production at 170.681 tons [1] Group 1: Industry Developments - The Chinese gold industry is guided by Xi Jinping's thoughts and aims for high-quality development through smart, green, and integrated growth, achieving significant breakthroughs in exploration and technology projects [2] - Major mining projects, such as the Dadonggou gold mine in Liaoning and the Katerbasa gold mine in Xinjiang, have made substantial progress, with the former discovering a large low-grade gold deposit [2] - The overseas gold production of large Chinese gold groups is steadily increasing, with an estimated output of about 90 tons in 2025, marking a 25% year-on-year growth [2] Group 2: Market Trends - In 2025, gold consumption in China is expected to decline by 3.57% to 950.096 tons, with jewelry consumption dropping by 31.61% while gold bars and coins consumption increased by 35.14% [2] - The market is witnessing a diversification in demand for gold products, with a shift in consumer preference towards investment products, as gold bars and coins consumption surpassed jewelry for the first time [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a 1.02% increase in total trading volume to 31,400 tons and a 43.89% increase in trading value to 24.93 trillion yuan in 2025 [3] Group 3: Price Movements - By the end of December 2025, the London spot gold price reached $4307.95 per ounce, a 62.90% increase from $2644.60 per ounce at the beginning of the year [4] - The closing price of Au9999 gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange was 974.90 yuan per gram, up 58.78% from the opening price of 614.00 yuan per gram at the start of the year [4] - New futures and options for platinum and palladium were launched on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, enhancing the precious metals derivatives market in China [4]

Group 1: Gold Production and Consumption - In 2025, domestic gold production reached 381.339 tons, an increase of 4.097 tons or 1.09% year-on-year. Imported gold production was 170.681 tons, up by 13.817 tons or 8.81% year-on-year, leading to a total gold production of 552.020 tons, which is an increase of 17.914 tons or 3.35% year-on-year [1] - The overseas gold production of major Chinese gold groups steadily increased, achieving approximately 90 tons, a year-on-year growth of 25% [1] - Gold consumption in China was 950.096 tons, a decrease of 3.57% year-on-year. Notably, gold jewelry consumption fell by 31.61% to 363.836 tons, while gold bars and coins saw a significant increase of 35.14% to 504.238 tons [1] Group 2: Market Activity and Price Trends - By the end of December 2025, the London spot gold fixing price was $4307.95 per ounce, up 62.90% from the beginning of the year, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange Au9999 closing price was 974.90 yuan per gram, an increase of 58.78% [2] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a total trading volume of 31,400 tons (62,900 tons double-sided) for all gold varieties, a year-on-year increase of 1.02%, with a total trading value of 24.93 trillion yuan (49.86 trillion yuan double-sided), up 43.89% [1] - Domestic gold ETF saw an annual increase in holdings of 133.118 tons, a growth of 149.91% compared to 53.266 tons in 2024, bringing total holdings to 247.852 tons by the end of December [2] Group 3: Regulatory Responses and Central Bank Activities - In response to significant fluctuations in precious metal prices, exchanges like the Shanghai Gold Exchange and the Guangzhou Futures Exchange quickly adjusted trading limits, margin ratios, and transaction fees to stabilize market expectations and maintain orderly market operations [2] - Global central banks continued to increase their gold reserves, with China adding 26.75 tons of gold in 2025, marking 14 consecutive months of increases, bringing total reserves to 2306.32 tons by the end of December [2]

Group 1: Gold Production and Industry Development - In 2025, domestic gold production reached 381.339 tons, an increase of 4.097 tons or 1.09% year-on-year. Imported gold production was 170.681 tons, up by 13.817 tons or 8.81% year-on-year, leading to a total gold production of 552.020 tons, which is an increase of 17.914 tons or 3.35% year-on-year [1] - The Chinese gold industry is guided by Xi Jinping's thought and aims for high-quality development through smart, green, and integrated growth. Significant breakthroughs have been made in exploration and technology projects, including the discovery of China's first thousand-ton low-grade super-large gold mine in Liaoning [1] - Major gold groups in China saw steady growth in overseas gold production, achieving approximately 90 tons, a year-on-year increase of 25%. Zijin Mining completed the acquisition of two gold mining projects in Ghana and Kazakhstan [1] Group 2: Gold Consumption Trends - In 2025, gold consumption in China totaled 950.096 tons, a decrease of 3.57% year-on-year. Gold jewelry consumption fell to 363.836 tons, down 31.61%, while gold bars and coins consumption rose to 504.238 tons, an increase of 35.14% [2] - The market demand for gold is diversifying, with consumers increasingly recognizing gold's investment attributes. For the first time, gold bars and coins consumption surpassed that of gold jewelry, indicating a structural shift in the gold market [2] - The industrial demand for gold is steadily increasing, driven by the rapid development of emerging industries such as electronics and new energy [2] Group 3: Market Performance and Trading Activity - By the end of December 2025, the London spot gold price was $4307.95 per ounce, up 62.90% from the beginning of the year, while the Shanghai Gold Exchange's Au9999 gold closing price was 974.90 yuan per gram, an increase of 58.78% [3] - The Shanghai Gold Exchange reported a total trading volume of 31,400 tons and a trading value of 24.93 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.02% and 43.89%, respectively [2] - Domestic gold ETFs saw an annual increase of 133.118 tons, a growth of 149.91% compared to 2024, with total holdings reaching 247.852 tons by the end of December [3]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market opened with more declines than gains, with notable drops in silver and tin futures, down nearly 20% and over 11% respectively [3][7] - SC crude oil fell over 4%, while fuel oil and platinum dropped more than 3% [3][7] - In contrast, shipping European line, aluminum oxide, and PVC saw increases of over 1% [3][7] Group 2 - The overnight London spot precious metals market showed a slight narrowing of declines but remained weak, with domestic silver and platinum-palladium futures continuing to hit the limit down [5][8] - The gold-silver ratio quickly rebounded to 58.1, and the platinum-palladium price spread narrowed to $404 per ounce [5][8] - The US ISM manufacturing index rose to 52.6, significantly exceeding expectations of 48.5, driven by robust growth in new orders and output [5][8] - The recent volatility in the precious metals market is attributed to a forced liquidation due to extreme overbuying and crowded trades, indicating a potential for a more stable phase for gold [5][8] - Silver continues to exhibit high volatility, with the main silver futures contract experiencing a second limit down, which has absorbed much of the risk [5][8] - Despite significant declines in platinum and palladium, the long-term supply-demand dynamics suggest a potential for buying on dips once gold stabilizes [5][8]