Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints - Geopolitical conflicts are causing significant fluctuations in the agricultural product market, with different products showing various trends and being affected by multiple factors such as geopolitical events, supply - demand fundamentals, and cost changes [1][5]. - The prices of most agricultural products are closely related to the development of the Middle - East situation, and the market is trading the "conflict premium" before the war shows a clear end signal [5]. Summary by Variety Oils and Fats - **Viewpoint**: Middle - East situation deteriorates, and vegetable oils hit the daily limit during trading. The price trend is highly correlated with the evolution of the Middle - East situation, and the core logic is that "the duration of the war determines the price level". - **Logic**: The war in the Middle - East leads to a sharp short - term increase in crude oil and its products. It affects oil prices through multiple paths. Before the war ends, the market will trade the "conflict premium", and the price center may rise. After the war, the prices will face downward pressure but may turn to a bullish shock pattern in the long - term due to low inventory and weather factors. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are expected to be bullish with shocks. It is recommended to pay attention to the phased low - level buying strategy [5]. Protein Meal - **Viewpoint**: The volatility of double meals intensifies, and attention should be paid to the development of the Middle - East situation. - **Logic**: Internationally, the escalation of the US - Iran conflict and the spill - over effect of rising crude oil prices drive up the price of US soybeans. The expected implementation of the US biodiesel bill in March may boost the US soybean crushing volume. In South America, the soybean production in Brazil is expected to be lower than the February estimate. Domestically, the opening limit - up of soybean meal futures is affected by the US - Iran conflict, but the supply fundamentals are still loose. - **Outlook**: Soybean meal is expected to fluctuate. The increase in US soybean prices due to the US - Iran conflict raises the cost of domestic soybean meal, and the market is worried about the delay of Brazilian soybean arrivals [5]. Corn - **Viewpoint**: Emotional funds cause corn to rise first and then fall. - **Logic**: The rise in the futures price is mainly due to macro and fund rotation, trading the "war premium". In the short - term, there are no major negative factors in the domestic corn fundamentals. In the medium - term, the supply - demand is tight, and the fundamentals and emotions resonate to support the price increase. However, the increase is relatively rational compared to oils and fats. - **Outlook**: Bullish with shocks. In March, the increase in spot prices may narrow, and attention should be paid to the capital movement in the futures market. In the medium - term, corn is generally bullish [5][6]. Pigs - **Viewpoint**: The futures price is driven up by cost and sentiment, but the spot supply - demand is still loose. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the planned daily slaughter volume in March increases. In the medium - term, the supply pressure is large. In the long - term, the process of capacity reduction is not smooth. The demand is in the off - season after the festival, and the inventory and weight of pigs increase. - **Outlook**: Bearish with shocks. In the first half of the year, the industry is advised to pay attention to the hedging opportunity of short - selling at high prices. The pig cycle is expected to bottom out and pick up in the second half of the year [7]. Natural Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are insufficient to support the price, and the price follows with difficulty. - **Logic**: Although the price was driven up by the sharp rise of synthetic rubber, it quickly fell back, indicating that the fundamentals do not support the rise. The short - term trading logic is still related to the Middle - East geopolitics, and the downstream tire orders to the Middle - East are affected, which is negative for the price. - **Outlook**: The price will maintain a shock pattern due to limited fundamental variables [8][10]. Synthetic Rubber - **Viewpoint**: The strength continues, and the futures price hits the daily limit. - **Logic**: The Middle - East geopolitical event leads to a continuous rise in crude oil. Driven by the daily limit of multiple varieties in the sector, BR maintains its strength. The export of butadiene last week intensifies the bullish sentiment in the market. As long as crude oil remains strong, the futures price is likely to rise. - **Outlook**: The futures price mainly follows the sector sentiment. If crude oil continues to rise, the price will remain strong in the short - term, but attention should be paid to the rapid change of geopolitical sentiment [12]. Cotton - **Viewpoint**: The price rises during trading and then falls back, continuing the consolidation pattern. - **Logic**: There is no new driving force in the cotton market, and funds flow into hot varieties. The domestic cotton commercial inventory is in the de - stocking period, and the domestic supply - demand is expected to be in a tight balance. Overseas, the supply - demand situation is expected to improve in the next season. - **Outlook**: Bullish with shocks. It is recommended to buy on dips [13]. Sugar - **Viewpoint**: The sharp fluctuation of oil prices causes short - term shocks in sugar prices. - **Logic**: In the long - term, the internal and external sugar prices are expected to continue the weak shock at the bottom. In the short - term, affected by the rise and sharp fluctuation of oil prices, the futures price may have a shock rebound, but it is difficult to reverse the oversupply pattern. - **Outlook**: The price will fluctuate. Affected by the oil price fluctuation caused by the Middle - East conflict, the sugar price may have a shock rebound, and the internal price range can be moderately expanded to 5100 - 5500 yuan/ton [14]. Pulp - **Viewpoint**: The price rises first and then falls back, and is greatly affected by the market trading atmosphere. - **Logic**: The fluctuation of pulp futures is mainly affected by the transmission of crude oil fluctuations. The current fundamentals are weak, but the seasonal demand is expected to increase. The supply - demand situation is complex, with both positive and negative factors. - **Outlook**: Bullish with shocks. The expected improvement in demand forms a positive factor, and the pulp price will maintain a bullish shock pattern within the range [16]. Double - Glue Paper - **Viewpoint**: Paper mills announce price increases, and the futures price is bullish within the range. - **Logic**: The trading atmosphere in the double - glue paper market is average, and the price is stable. The supply pressure exists, and the downstream demand is weak. In March - April, the supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to rise. In May, the price may fall. - **Outlook**: Bullish with shocks. After the festival, the supply and demand are expected to increase, and the price is expected to be bullish within the range in the short - term [18]. Logs - **Viewpoint**: The cost increases, and the logs are bullish with shocks. - **Logic**: The geopolitical conflict increases the freight cost and the CFR quotation of the outer market. The domestic spot price follows the increase. In the short - term, the price is bullish with shocks. In the medium - term, the price may be under pressure after the arrival of a large number of logs. - **Outlook**: The price will maintain a shock pattern. The increase in the outer - market quotation drives up the domestic spot price, and the price will maintain a range - bound operation [19]. Commodity Index - **Comprehensive Index**: The comprehensive index, specialty index (including commodity 20 index and industrial products index), and sector index (agricultural product index) all show an upward trend on March 9, 2026. The agricultural product index has a daily increase of 2.48%, a 5 - day increase of 3.55%, a 1 - month increase of 3.93%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.17% [180][182].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium prices are highly sensitive to supply disruptions and capital flows, with historical volatility ranking high among metals. Their price trends are significantly influenced by the evolution of supply - demand structures and the macro - environment. Demand substitution is the long - term logic for price fluctuations, while price extremes are affected by macro - fluctuations, supply disruptions, and external event shocks [2][132]. - The cost of mining platinum and palladium forms a strong bottom - support for prices in the medium term. In 2024, the total sustaining cost of global platinum mines increased by 11.8% year - on - year to $884 per ounce. At present, the price of platinum is $1350 per troy ounce, reducing the possibility of further production cuts by mining enterprises, but higher prices may be needed to stimulate more supply [2][134]. - The platinum - palladium ratio reflects demand substitution and financial attribute premiums. The core driver of substitution is a long - term and significant relative premium, and the substitution cycle usually takes 3 - 5 years. After the spread between platinum and palladium converges from a high level, it will likely form an inversion due to the redistribution of downstream demand [2][134]. - The gold - platinum ratio can effectively isolate the safe - haven attribute of gold and the industrial attribute of platinum, essentially reflecting changes in economic prospects and market risk preferences. It is an effective leading indicator for predicting stock market returns, with a high correlation with the S&P 500's next - year cumulative return but a weak correlation with the A - share market [3][134]. - Platinum and palladium are positively correlated with gold and negatively correlated with the US dollar index due to their investment and safe - haven attributes; their prices are positively correlated with copper prices because of overlapping manufacturing demands; and platinum prices are trend - related to crude oil prices as rising oil prices push up mining costs and support platinum and palladium prices [4][134]. Summary by Directory 1. Introduction - The previous report comprehensively sorted out the platinum and palladium industry chains, global supply - demand situations, and their influencing factors. This report conducts an in - depth review of the historical prices of platinum and palladium, analyzes their key influencing factors, and explores medium - and long - term investment opportunities [14]. 2. Historical Supply - Demand Review of Platinum and Palladium Platinum - Supply: Historically, global platinum supply has shown a trend of high - speed growth followed by high - level shock and decline. South Africa has long dominated global platinum supply, with its share decreasing from 70% in 1990 to 58% in 2024. After 2005, recycled platinum supply gradually increased. From 1990 - 2006, platinum supply expanded rapidly, but then declined due to factors such as decreased mine grades and labor disputes in South Africa. After 2008, global primary platinum supply remained at a low level, while recycled platinum production mainly fluctuated [16]. - Demand: Overall, platinum demand has shown a trend of continuous increase followed by shock. Automobile, jewelry, and investment demands contribute the main marginal elasticity. From 1990 - 2008, global platinum demand continued to rise, mainly driven by jewelry demand before 1999 and automobile exhaust catalysts after 2000. After the 2008 financial crisis, investment demand increased, and after 2015, platinum demand entered a re - balancing stage [17]. Palladium - Supply: Historically, global palladium supply has generally shown a trend of shock and upward movement, with greater volatility than platinum. Primary palladium supply has evolved from near - monopoly by Russia to a bipolar oligopoly pattern of Russia and South Africa. After 2017, recycled palladium supply became an important source. From 1990 - 2000, Russia released a large amount of palladium inventory, and after 2000, supply shifted to mine output. From 2005 - 2019, recycled palladium production increased, and from 2020 - 2025, supply was relatively tight due to sanctions and production cuts [19][20]. - Demand: Overall, palladium demand increased and then decreased from 1990 - 2002 and then showed a long - term upward trend with shock. After 2020, it mainly fluctuated. The growth of palladium demand mainly comes from the automobile field. In the 1990s, palladium demand in the automobile exhaust catalyst field increased explosively, but it declined sharply in 2001. After 2015, the "Dieselgate" event and upgraded emission standards promoted the increase of palladium demand, but then it gradually declined due to the increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles [20][21]. 3. Historical Price Review of Platinum and Palladium 1990 - 2001: Monopoly Behavior and Capital Resonance Triggered a Bubble - like Market for Palladium - From the beginning of 1990 to March 1997, platinum and palladium prices maintained a wide - range shock. After 1997, Russia restricted the export of platinum - group metals, and hedge funds hoarded goods, creating a shortage expectation. In 2000, the panic squeeze on TOCOM accelerated the rise of palladium prices, and platinum and palladium prices were significantly inverted. In 2001, Russia resumed palladium exports, and palladium prices plummeted. During this period, platinum prices mainly followed palladium prices, and the substitution effect of palladium occurred in various demand fields [22][25][26]. 2002 - 2008: Macro and Fundamental Resonance Drove Platinum to a Long - Bull Market - Palladium prices were under pressure due to long - term supply - demand surplus. In 2002, palladium prices dropped sharply, and although there was a short - term rebound in 2003, the overall situation remained weak. In contrast, platinum prices showed a long - bull trend. From 2002 - 2008, platinum supply was in short supply in most years, and the average annual price increased from $539 per ounce in 2002 to a historical high of $2192 per ounce in 2008, driven by factors such as the growth of platinum demand in the automobile and jewelry fields and the weakening of the US dollar. In 2008, the financial crisis led to a sharp decline in platinum prices [38][41][42]. 2009 - 2018: Pricing Returned from Macro to Fundamental, and Palladium Substituted Platinum in the Long - Term - Platinum prices generally rose and then fell, while palladium prices showed an upward trend with shock. From 2009 - 2012, palladium prices performed better than platinum prices. After 2013, the platinum - group metal market was affected by macro - policy changes and industry structural changes. The "Dieselgate" event in 2015 was a turning point, which led to a significant decline in platinum demand and an increase in palladium demand. From 2016 - 2018, upgraded global emission standards promoted the bull market of palladium and the weakening of platinum prices [45][50][57]. 2019 - 2025: External Factor Shocks Intensified, and Platinum and Palladium Demand Re - balanced - Palladium prices experienced a complete bull market, reaching a historical high of $3015 per ounce in March 2022 and then significantly回调. Platinum prices were relatively weak, mainly fluctuating in the range of $800 - $1000 per ounce and rebounding in 2025. During this period, global macro - fluctuations intensified, and multiple factors such as emission standard upgrades, geopolitical conflicts, and the transformation of new - energy vehicles affected the market supply - demand pattern of platinum and palladium. In 2025, platinum and palladium showed a pattern of "platinum strong, palladium weak" [62][67][73]. 4. Pricing Logic and Inter - Variety Linkage of Platinum and Palladium Mining Cost Forms Bottom Support, and Capex Has a Weak Correlation with Supply - Platinum - group metal mining is capital - intensive, and new mine development has a long cycle. The Capex of platinum and palladium mining enterprises is related to the current prices of platinum and palladium, but primary platinum and palladium supply has no obvious correlation with Capex due to external events in South Africa and Russia. Rising production costs in 2024 increased the bottom support of prices. Currently, platinum prices are at the median of the cost range, and higher prices may be needed to stimulate more supply [84][89][92]. Platinum - Palladium Ratio: Long - Term High Premium Drives Demand Substitution - The platinum - palladium ratio reflects demand substitution and financial attribute premiums. Since 1990, there have been three substitution effects between platinum and palladium. The core driver of substitution is long - term and significant relative premium, and the substitution cycle usually takes 3 - 5 years. Currently, the platinum - palladium ratio has been rising, and there is still room for further increase, but downstream substitution may be more smooth if the ratio rises significantly [98][101][108]. Gold - Platinum Ratio: An Excellent Indicator for Predicting Stock Market Returns - The gold - platinum ratio reflects changes in economic prospects and market risk preferences. Since 1990, it has gone through several stages of evolution. It is an effective leading indicator for predicting stock market returns, with a high correlation with the S&P 500's next - year cumulative return but a weak correlation with the A - share market [113][116][117]. Linkage of Platinum and Palladium with Other Indicators - Financial attribute: Platinum and palladium are positively correlated with gold and negatively correlated with the US dollar index, and platinum has a higher correlation. - Industrial attribute: Platinum and palladium prices are positively correlated with copper prices due to overlapping manufacturing demands. - Cost structure: Platinum prices are trend - related to crude oil prices. Rising oil prices push up mining costs and support platinum prices, and there is also a certain relationship between platinum demand and oil prices [126][127][128].