Report Industry Investment Rating - Gold: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market) [1] - Silver: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish trend and relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] Core View - Overnight, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending November 22 was 216,000, lower than the expected 225,000 and the revised previous value of 222,000, reaching the lowest level since the week of April 12, 2025. The economy shows resilience, with gold fluctuating and silver relatively strong. Russia has received the latest version of the US - Ukraine peace plan, but it's too early to say an agreement is imminent. Due to uncertainties in interest rate cuts and geopolitical prospects, precious metals are in high - level oscillations waiting for a directional breakthrough [1]. - On the first day of the platinum - palladium futures listing, speculative funds pushed up the market in the short term. Compared with the spot price, platinum - palladium futures were significantly overvalued, and the domestic platinum - palladium futures had a lower cost - effectiveness for further long positions. As funds returned to rationality, the market rose and then fell, with sharp intraday fluctuations. On Friday, platinum - palladium options will be listed, and attention should be paid to the strategy of shorting volatility under high - volatility conditions [2]. Summary by Related Topics Peace Talks Situation - US: Trump loosened the deadline for the Russia - Ukraine peace talks; the US - proposed peace plan was said to borrow from Russian documents; an alleged leaked conversation showed the US Middle - East envoy's suggestion to Russia; US Secretary of State Rubio told European allies that the US hopes to reach a peace agreement before providing security guarantees to Ukraine [3]. - Ukraine: Denied in principle agreeing to the US peace plan [3]. - Europe: EU officials called for continued pressure on Russia, submitted legal texts on using frozen Russian assets, and opposed restrictions on the Ukrainian armed forces; German Defense Minister said Ukraine should not be forced to cede territory unilaterally [3]. - Russia: Representatives had meetings in Abu Dhabi; Russia received the latest version of the US peace plan; it's too early to conclude a peace agreement; Russia - US relations are in the early stage of normalization, and Russia won't make concessions on key issues [3]. US - Japan Relations - Trump criticized Japanese Prime Minister Kaochi Sanae during a call, asking her not to provoke China on the Taiwan Strait issue. Japanese officials found this information "worrisome". Trump asked Kaochi to soften her tone but did not pressure her to withdraw her remarks [4].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Federal Reserve's Interest Rate Expectations**: The divergence in expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in December has increased, with dovish officials citing a weak labor market as support for cuts, while hawkish officials express concerns over inflation rebound, leading to increased policy uncertainty [1][3][4][5] - **Domestic Macro Economy**: The LPR remained unchanged in November, indicating that the central bank believes there is still room for monetary policy, but the marginal efficiency is declining, making further easing unlikely this year [1][7][8] Commodity Market Insights - **Black Commodities**: There is a significant divergence in the performance of black commodities. Coal and coke prices have dropped sharply, with coking coal down 9% and coke over 4%. In contrast, iron ore has shown relative strength, increasing by approximately 1.2% [1][9][12] - **Iron Ore Market**: Iron ore has performed better than other commodities recently, but with increased shipments and port arrivals, supply-demand conflicts may intensify, leading to potential price volatility in the short term [1][12] - **Precious Metals**: The precious metals market remains weak, with the gold-silver ratio hovering around 81. Factors such as internal divisions within the Federal Reserve and geopolitical tensions have limited upward momentum for gold [1][15] - **Oil Market**: The oil market is under pressure from a mid-term supply surplus, with IEA predicting continued oversupply in global oil markets this year and next, leading to a bearish outlook for oil prices [1][20] Specific Commodity Analysis - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The coking coal market is facing increased supply due to domestic production recovery and rising imports from Mongolia. The coke market is also under pressure, with limited price increases expected [1][13][14] - **Steel Market**: The rebar and hot-rolled coil markets are experiencing narrow fluctuations, with recent data showing improvements in both supply and demand, although overall market sentiment remains cautious [1][10][11] - **Nonferrous Metals**: The nonferrous metals market is generally weak, with copper prices expected to remain volatile but high. The aluminum market faces seasonal inventory increases, limiting upward price potential [1][17] - **New Energy Materials**: The polysilicon and industrial silicon markets are weak, while lithium carbonate prices have risen unexpectedly due to improved fundamentals, although risks of price declines remain [1][18][19] Additional Insights - **Market Sentiment**: The overall market sentiment is cautious due to mixed economic data and geopolitical uncertainties, impacting various commodity prices and investor strategies [1][6][17] - **Future Expectations**: The outlook for many commodities remains uncertain, with potential for volatility driven by supply-demand dynamics and macroeconomic factors [1][20][21][25]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures on November 27, 2025, at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, highlighting the expected trading strategies and market dynamics for these metals. Group 1: Futures Launch and Trading Strategies - Platinum and palladium futures will be listed with initial contracts PT/PD2606 to PT/PD2610 [4] - Recommended trading strategy for the first day includes buying on dips, with PT2606 expected to trade between 390-420 CNY/gram and PD2606 between 340-370 CNY/gram [6][26] - If prices break above the upper range, short positions may be considered [6][26] Group 2: Delivery Rules and Price Anchoring - The cheapest delivery form for platinum and palladium may be powder, as it typically trades at a discount compared to ingot forms [5][7] - The delivery rules specify that registered warehouse receipts must be for domestic platinum/palladium ingots, while factory receipts can include ingots, sponge, and powder forms [7] - Futures prices are expected to anchor slightly above the spot price of platinum/palladium powder due to delivery preferences [7] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Platinum supply is constrained, with a projected 5% year-on-year decline in mine supply to 171 tons in 2025, driven by low prices affecting mining profitability [16][18] - Recycling supply of platinum is expected to increase by 8% year-on-year to 12 tons in 2025, partially offsetting the supply shortage [16] - Palladium supply is tightening due to reduced production from mining companies, with a significant portion of palladium supply coming from recycling [23] Group 4: Market Trends and Price Outlook - The article anticipates that platinum prices will be supported by strong demand from the automotive sector, with a 21% year-on-year increase in car sales in China [17] - Palladium demand is expected to weaken due to the rising share of electric vehicles, impacting its price support [23] - The initial pricing center for platinum futures is estimated around 405 CNY/gram and for palladium around 355 CNY/gram [25]