专题报告—铂钯 smingfTable_Title] 铂钯上市系列专题二： 铂钯价格深度复盘及品种间联动关系解析 | | | [★Ta3b5le年_S历um史m铂ar钯y]价格复盘 铂钯的波动率在金属中位居前列，过去十年钯和铂的日均波动率 分别为 1.58%和 1.22%，反映两者对供应扰动和资金流动高度敏 感。1997~2001 年和 2017~2023 年为钯金牛市，而 2002~2008 年 为铂金牛市。铂钯的价格走势深受供需结构演变及宏观环境影 响，需求替代作为铂钯价格波动的长期逻辑，价格极值则由宏观 波动、供应扰动和外部事件冲击给予（价格复盘见正文）。 ★成本支撑 有 色 金 属 原生铂钯供应与 Capex 相关性较弱，主因南非和俄罗斯矿端扰动 较多，矿端成本中期对铂钯价格形成强劲底部支撑。2024 年全球 铂矿总维持成本同比上升 11.8%至 884 美元/盎司，铂现以 1350 美元/金衡盎司的价格运行，矿企进一步减产的可能性降低，但 若要刺激出更多供应，或需要更高的价格。 ★铂钯比 铂钯比反映需求替代与金融属性溢价。替代的核心驱动是长期显 著的相对溢价，次要驱动有供应链安全和政策刺激等。替代周 ...

Core Viewpoint - Platinum is experiencing a significant price increase, with a cumulative rise of 33% from May 15 to June 24, 2023, and over 44% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with gold's 26.8% increase during the same period [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The recent surge in platinum prices is driven by a combination of supply shortages and a shift in investor sentiment, as geopolitical instability and tariff uncertainties have widened the price gap between gold and platinum [1][3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a supply deficit of 30 tons in the global platinum market for 2025, primarily due to insufficient long-term investment in South African mines and challenges in recycling automotive catalysts [3][10]. Demand Trends - Platinum demand saw a 10% increase in Q1 2025, with jewelry demand rising by 9% and investment demand surging by 28% to 14 tons. Notably, China's platinum bar demand grew by 140%, surpassing North America as the largest retail investment market [3][10]. - The jewelry market for platinum is recovering, with increased consumer interest as gold prices rise, leading to a resurgence in platinum jewelry sales [3][5]. Technical Analysis - The Gold-Platinum Ratio is currently around 2.75, indicating that platinum may be undervalued, which is attracting more investment [4][9]. - Recent data shows a significant increase in platinum futures positions, with total open interest rising from 70,592 contracts on May 22 to 77,787 contracts by May 30, reflecting a warming market sentiment [4][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there is a reasonable narrative for a bullish trend in platinum, caution is advised as the market may not sustain linear growth. The automotive industry's demand decline and potential supply increases could limit long-term price growth [9][10]. - The supply-demand balance for platinum is projected to show a deficit of approximately 41.2 tons in 2025, with demand growth expected at 10.8% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with prices soaring from $2500 per ounce in mid-2024 to a peak of $3500 by April 2025, followed by a sharp correction of over 7% within weeks, raising concerns about the sustainability of the bull market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The gold-to-silver ratio has reached an extreme of 100:1, significantly above the historical average of 70:1, indicating potential for either a downward adjustment in gold prices or a strong rally in silver prices [3]. - The gold-to-platinum ratio has climbed to 3.5, whereas it typically fluctuates between 1 and 2 over the past 20 years, suggesting that gold may be severely overvalued relative to platinum [3]. Group 2: Drivers of Gold Price Surge - The surge in gold prices from 2022 to 2023 was driven by escalating global geopolitical tensions, leading central banks, including those of China and Poland, to significantly increase their gold reserves, thereby boosting demand [4]. - The announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration heightened trade tensions and market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Expectations of the Federal Reserve shifting to a loose monetary policy in 2025 further enhanced gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset, reducing its opportunity cost compared to other investments [4]. Group 3: Changing Market Dynamics - Recent positive signals from the White House regarding trade negotiations have reduced market risk aversion, while a strong rebound in the dollar index has put downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.23%, with real yields approaching 2%, diminishing gold's attractiveness as an investment [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Key upcoming events include the decision on whether to reinstate tariffs after the 90-day pause and the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, both of which will significantly influence market sentiment and gold prices [5]. - Despite short-term pressures, analysts maintain a long-term optimistic outlook for gold, citing the U.S. federal debt surpassing $36 trillion and ongoing geopolitical complexities as factors that will continue to support gold's value as a safe-haven asset [5].