欢迎加入交易理想国知识星球 文 | 交易理想国知识星球 编辑 | 杨兰 审核 | 浦电路交易员 看看现在的白银租赁利率曲线，似乎也在暗示着什么：年底前的短期利率很低，但跨年到明年初的利率却明显升高。这说明市场预期，明 年初的现货可能会非常紧张。10月之后，伦敦仓库的白银库存确实增加了2600吨，但这些很多是从纽约、上海"搬"过去的。明年1月，伦敦 多出来的这2600吨，够不够应对可能的集中归还需求？这出"现货逼仓"的大戏，会不会在伦敦再次上演？这无疑是开年最大的看点。 价格疯涨，背后是比价逻辑的全面重构 白银涨这么猛，一个直观的表现就是"金银比"大幅下滑。今年4月，金银比还处在104的高位（意思是一盎司黄金能换约105盎司白银），如 今已经跌到了64附近。这回归速度，堪比坐过山车。 本周（2025年12月22日--12月26日）交易理想国知识星球共发布37条内容，以下是筛选出的本周精华内容片段摘要，完整版内容可扫码查看。 白银：逼仓传闻与疯狂溢价的真相 开 年大戏：伦敦会不会上演"现货逼仓"第二季？ 经历了疯狂的12月，大家自然把目光投向了明年1月。明年1月，白银的主战场可能不在纽约，而在伦敦。 今年白银市场 ...

白银的库存在消失。 我说的不是缓慢减少，而是"蒸发"。 就在前不久，华尔街传来一个惊人的消息：如果想在纽约金属交易所买断所有能被立即交割的现 货白银，可能只需要12亿美元。 这笔钱，在金融巨鳄眼里，或许只是一笔"小钱"。 正是这个看似不起眼的数字，成了点燃白银狂飙的导火索。 当一个市场 的库存薄得像一层纸，任何一点火星，都可能引发一场大火。 2025年12月22日，伦敦银价冲破了每盎司68美元。 这个数字，在几年前听起来像是天方夜谭，如今却成了现实。 仅仅这一年，白银的价格就从地平线起 飞，涨幅超过了130%，把黄金、石油等一众老牌资产远远甩在了身后。 人们开始重新打量这个常年被黄金光芒掩盖的"穷亲戚"。 为什么是白银？ 故事得从另一个比值说起，金银比。 简单说，就是用一盎司黄金的价格，能买多少盎司白银。 这个古老的比值，像钟摆一样，在历史长河 中来回摆动。 它的中轴线，通常在40到80之间。 当它高于100，往往是大动荡时期，黄金被疯抢，白银被冷落；当它低于30，则可能是白银过热的时候。 2025年4月，这个钟摆甩向了一个极端高位：104.87。 那时，一盎司黄金能换将近105盎司白银。 触发点是一场席卷全 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in platinum and palladium futures prices, reaching new highs since their listing, driven by tight overseas supply and bullish sentiment in the metals sector [1][2] - As of December 22, platinum futures for the main contract PT2606 reached 568.45 yuan per gram, up 6.99%, while palladium futures for the main contract PD2606 reached 508.45 yuan per gram, up 7.00% [1] - The Dalian Commodity Exchange announced new trading limits for non-futures company members or clients, restricting daily opening positions for platinum and palladium contracts to a maximum of 500 lots starting December 23, 2025 [1] Group 2 - Analysts from Guosen Futures attribute the price surge to a combination of overseas supply shortages and increased bullish sentiment in the metals market [2] - Everbright Futures suggests that platinum and palladium prices will continue to follow gold price trends, with stronger performance, supported by the ongoing strength in gold prices and the rapid return of gold-silver ratios extending to gold-platinum and gold-palladium ratios [2] - Caution is advised regarding potential market overheating and rapid adjustments as prices rise quickly, indicating a need for careful consideration when entering high positions [2]

Group 1 - Precious metals opened higher on December 22, with spot gold breaking the October 20 high of $4,381.4 per ounce, reaching a new historical high of $4,383.99 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 1.00% [1] - Spot silver continued its upward trend after a more than 8% increase last week, rising 2% on Monday to a historical high of $68.52 per ounce [1] - Spot platinum surged over 13% previously and continued to rise by 2.5% on Monday, surpassing the $2,000 mark and reaching a 17-year high of $2,020.80 per ounce, marking an annual increase of over 120% [1] Group 2 - The main contract for silver futures in Shanghai rose over 5%, breaking the 16,000 yuan per kilogram mark, and has accumulated an increase of over 114% this year [1] - The A-share precious metals sector experienced fluctuations, with companies like Hunan Silver and Xiaocheng Technology both rising over 4%, while others such as Western Gold and Zhongjin Gold also saw gains [1] Group 3 - According to Everbright Futures, silver, platinum, and palladium continue to follow gold's trend but are performing more strongly, with gold's sustained strength providing market confidence for bullish positions in silver, platinum, and palladium [3] - The rapid return of the gold-silver ratio has extended to the gold-platinum and gold-palladium ratios, providing strong support and momentum for platinum and palladium prices [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of precious metals futures, with platinum and palladium rising over 5% and silver increasing over 4% [1] - Despite market skepticism regarding the Federal Reserve's future interest rate cuts, discussions around the potential candidates for the Fed chair and the number of rate cuts in 2016 are influencing market sentiment [1] - The current gold price is close to its historical high, with attention on whether it can effectively break through this level to open up upward potential for 2026 [1] Group 2 - Silver, platinum, and palladium continue to follow gold's trend, with stronger performance observed in these metals [1] - The sustained strength in gold prices provides market confidence for bullish positions in silver, platinum, and palladium, leading to a rapid return of the gold-silver ratio, which extends to the gold-platinum and gold-palladium ratios [1] - While prices are rising quickly, caution is advised to prevent overheating in the market, suggesting that chasing high prices should be approached with care [1]

Market Overview - On November 27, A-shares opened mixed with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.49%, Shenzhen Component Index up by 0.96%, and ChiNext Index rising over 1% [1] - Sectors such as industrial metals, photovoltaic equipment, and semiconductors showed significant gains [1] Futures Market - Platinum and palladium futures were listed for trading on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, with benchmark prices set at 405 CNY/gram for platinum and 365 CNY/gram for palladium [1] - On the first day of trading, the main contracts opened significantly higher [1] Gold and Platinum Market Dynamics - According to a researcher from Nanhua Futures, the demand for gold is rising due to de-dollarization, geopolitical conflicts, and expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, leading to historical highs in gold prices [2] - Platinum, being a weaker safe-haven metal, is influenced by gold prices, with the gold-platinum ratio at historical highs, indicating a short-term trend where gold leads and platinum follows [2] - The long-term outlook suggests that platinum and palladium have substitution effects, anchoring palladium prices to platinum [2] Small Metals Sector Performance - The small metals sector in A-shares saw a rally, with Guoyan Platinum Industry (600459) rising over 8%, followed by West Mining and Cangge Mining [2] - The small metals index increased by 1.45% [3] Solid-State Battery Sector - The solid-state battery sector experienced strong fluctuations, with Yishitong (688733) hitting the daily limit up of 20%, and other companies like Lian De Equipment and Zhidongli rising over 10% [4][5] - The solid-state battery index rose by 1.99% [5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming launch of platinum and palladium futures on November 27, 2025, at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange, highlighting the expected trading strategies and market dynamics for these metals. Group 1: Futures Launch and Trading Strategies - Platinum and palladium futures will be listed with initial contracts PT/PD2606 to PT/PD2610 [4] - Recommended trading strategy for the first day includes buying on dips, with PT2606 expected to trade between 390-420 CNY/gram and PD2606 between 340-370 CNY/gram [6][26] - If prices break above the upper range, short positions may be considered [6][26] Group 2: Delivery Rules and Price Anchoring - The cheapest delivery form for platinum and palladium may be powder, as it typically trades at a discount compared to ingot forms [5][7] - The delivery rules specify that registered warehouse receipts must be for domestic platinum/palladium ingots, while factory receipts can include ingots, sponge, and powder forms [7] - Futures prices are expected to anchor slightly above the spot price of platinum/palladium powder due to delivery preferences [7] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Platinum supply is constrained, with a projected 5% year-on-year decline in mine supply to 171 tons in 2025, driven by low prices affecting mining profitability [16][18] - Recycling supply of platinum is expected to increase by 8% year-on-year to 12 tons in 2025, partially offsetting the supply shortage [16] - Palladium supply is tightening due to reduced production from mining companies, with a significant portion of palladium supply coming from recycling [23] Group 4: Market Trends and Price Outlook - The article anticipates that platinum prices will be supported by strong demand from the automotive sector, with a 21% year-on-year increase in car sales in China [17] - Palladium demand is expected to weaken due to the rising share of electric vehicles, impacting its price support [23] - The initial pricing center for platinum futures is estimated around 405 CNY/gram and for palladium around 355 CNY/gram [25]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Platinum and palladium prices are highly sensitive to supply disruptions and capital flows, with historical volatility ranking high among metals. Their price trends are significantly influenced by the evolution of supply - demand structures and the macro - environment. Demand substitution is the long - term logic for price fluctuations, while price extremes are affected by macro - fluctuations, supply disruptions, and external event shocks [2][132]. - The cost of mining platinum and palladium forms a strong bottom - support for prices in the medium term. In 2024, the total sustaining cost of global platinum mines increased by 11.8% year - on - year to $884 per ounce. At present, the price of platinum is $1350 per troy ounce, reducing the possibility of further production cuts by mining enterprises, but higher prices may be needed to stimulate more supply [2][134]. - The platinum - palladium ratio reflects demand substitution and financial attribute premiums. The core driver of substitution is a long - term and significant relative premium, and the substitution cycle usually takes 3 - 5 years. After the spread between platinum and palladium converges from a high level, it will likely form an inversion due to the redistribution of downstream demand [2][134]. - The gold - platinum ratio can effectively isolate the safe - haven attribute of gold and the industrial attribute of platinum, essentially reflecting changes in economic prospects and market risk preferences. It is an effective leading indicator for predicting stock market returns, with a high correlation with the S&P 500's next - year cumulative return but a weak correlation with the A - share market [3][134]. - Platinum and palladium are positively correlated with gold and negatively correlated with the US dollar index due to their investment and safe - haven attributes; their prices are positively correlated with copper prices because of overlapping manufacturing demands; and platinum prices are trend - related to crude oil prices as rising oil prices push up mining costs and support platinum and palladium prices [4][134]. Summary by Directory 1. Introduction - The previous report comprehensively sorted out the platinum and palladium industry chains, global supply - demand situations, and their influencing factors. This report conducts an in - depth review of the historical prices of platinum and palladium, analyzes their key influencing factors, and explores medium - and long - term investment opportunities [14]. 2. Historical Supply - Demand Review of Platinum and Palladium Platinum - Supply: Historically, global platinum supply has shown a trend of high - speed growth followed by high - level shock and decline. South Africa has long dominated global platinum supply, with its share decreasing from 70% in 1990 to 58% in 2024. After 2005, recycled platinum supply gradually increased. From 1990 - 2006, platinum supply expanded rapidly, but then declined due to factors such as decreased mine grades and labor disputes in South Africa. After 2008, global primary platinum supply remained at a low level, while recycled platinum production mainly fluctuated [16]. - Demand: Overall, platinum demand has shown a trend of continuous increase followed by shock. Automobile, jewelry, and investment demands contribute the main marginal elasticity. From 1990 - 2008, global platinum demand continued to rise, mainly driven by jewelry demand before 1999 and automobile exhaust catalysts after 2000. After the 2008 financial crisis, investment demand increased, and after 2015, platinum demand entered a re - balancing stage [17]. Palladium - Supply: Historically, global palladium supply has generally shown a trend of shock and upward movement, with greater volatility than platinum. Primary palladium supply has evolved from near - monopoly by Russia to a bipolar oligopoly pattern of Russia and South Africa. After 2017, recycled palladium supply became an important source. From 1990 - 2000, Russia released a large amount of palladium inventory, and after 2000, supply shifted to mine output. From 2005 - 2019, recycled palladium production increased, and from 2020 - 2025, supply was relatively tight due to sanctions and production cuts [19][20]. - Demand: Overall, palladium demand increased and then decreased from 1990 - 2002 and then showed a long - term upward trend with shock. After 2020, it mainly fluctuated. The growth of palladium demand mainly comes from the automobile field. In the 1990s, palladium demand in the automobile exhaust catalyst field increased explosively, but it declined sharply in 2001. After 2015, the "Dieselgate" event and upgraded emission standards promoted the increase of palladium demand, but then it gradually declined due to the increase in the penetration rate of electric vehicles [20][21]. 3. Historical Price Review of Platinum and Palladium 1990 - 2001: Monopoly Behavior and Capital Resonance Triggered a Bubble - like Market for Palladium - From the beginning of 1990 to March 1997, platinum and palladium prices maintained a wide - range shock. After 1997, Russia restricted the export of platinum - group metals, and hedge funds hoarded goods, creating a shortage expectation. In 2000, the panic squeeze on TOCOM accelerated the rise of palladium prices, and platinum and palladium prices were significantly inverted. In 2001, Russia resumed palladium exports, and palladium prices plummeted. During this period, platinum prices mainly followed palladium prices, and the substitution effect of palladium occurred in various demand fields [22][25][26]. 2002 - 2008: Macro and Fundamental Resonance Drove Platinum to a Long - Bull Market - Palladium prices were under pressure due to long - term supply - demand surplus. In 2002, palladium prices dropped sharply, and although there was a short - term rebound in 2003, the overall situation remained weak. In contrast, platinum prices showed a long - bull trend. From 2002 - 2008, platinum supply was in short supply in most years, and the average annual price increased from $539 per ounce in 2002 to a historical high of $2192 per ounce in 2008, driven by factors such as the growth of platinum demand in the automobile and jewelry fields and the weakening of the US dollar. In 2008, the financial crisis led to a sharp decline in platinum prices [38][41][42]. 2009 - 2018: Pricing Returned from Macro to Fundamental, and Palladium Substituted Platinum in the Long - Term - Platinum prices generally rose and then fell, while palladium prices showed an upward trend with shock. From 2009 - 2012, palladium prices performed better than platinum prices. After 2013, the platinum - group metal market was affected by macro - policy changes and industry structural changes. The "Dieselgate" event in 2015 was a turning point, which led to a significant decline in platinum demand and an increase in palladium demand. From 2016 - 2018, upgraded global emission standards promoted the bull market of palladium and the weakening of platinum prices [45][50][57]. 2019 - 2025: External Factor Shocks Intensified, and Platinum and Palladium Demand Re - balanced - Palladium prices experienced a complete bull market, reaching a historical high of $3015 per ounce in March 2022 and then significantly回调. Platinum prices were relatively weak, mainly fluctuating in the range of $800 - $1000 per ounce and rebounding in 2025. During this period, global macro - fluctuations intensified, and multiple factors such as emission standard upgrades, geopolitical conflicts, and the transformation of new - energy vehicles affected the market supply - demand pattern of platinum and palladium. In 2025, platinum and palladium showed a pattern of "platinum strong, palladium weak" [62][67][73]. 4. Pricing Logic and Inter - Variety Linkage of Platinum and Palladium Mining Cost Forms Bottom Support, and Capex Has a Weak Correlation with Supply - Platinum - group metal mining is capital - intensive, and new mine development has a long cycle. The Capex of platinum and palladium mining enterprises is related to the current prices of platinum and palladium, but primary platinum and palladium supply has no obvious correlation with Capex due to external events in South Africa and Russia. Rising production costs in 2024 increased the bottom support of prices. Currently, platinum prices are at the median of the cost range, and higher prices may be needed to stimulate more supply [84][89][92]. Platinum - Palladium Ratio: Long - Term High Premium Drives Demand Substitution - The platinum - palladium ratio reflects demand substitution and financial attribute premiums. Since 1990, there have been three substitution effects between platinum and palladium. The core driver of substitution is long - term and significant relative premium, and the substitution cycle usually takes 3 - 5 years. Currently, the platinum - palladium ratio has been rising, and there is still room for further increase, but downstream substitution may be more smooth if the ratio rises significantly [98][101][108]. Gold - Platinum Ratio: An Excellent Indicator for Predicting Stock Market Returns - The gold - platinum ratio reflects changes in economic prospects and market risk preferences. Since 1990, it has gone through several stages of evolution. It is an effective leading indicator for predicting stock market returns, with a high correlation with the S&P 500's next - year cumulative return but a weak correlation with the A - share market [113][116][117]. Linkage of Platinum and Palladium with Other Indicators - Financial attribute: Platinum and palladium are positively correlated with gold and negatively correlated with the US dollar index, and platinum has a higher correlation. - Industrial attribute: Platinum and palladium prices are positively correlated with copper prices due to overlapping manufacturing demands. - Cost structure: Platinum prices are trend - related to crude oil prices. Rising oil prices push up mining costs and support platinum prices, and there is also a certain relationship between platinum demand and oil prices [126][127][128].

Core Viewpoint - Platinum is experiencing a significant price increase, with a cumulative rise of 33% from May 15 to June 24, 2023, and over 44% since the beginning of the year, contrasting with gold's 26.8% increase during the same period [1][3]. Market Dynamics - The recent surge in platinum prices is driven by a combination of supply shortages and a shift in investor sentiment, as geopolitical instability and tariff uncertainties have widened the price gap between gold and platinum [1][3]. - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a supply deficit of 30 tons in the global platinum market for 2025, primarily due to insufficient long-term investment in South African mines and challenges in recycling automotive catalysts [3][10]. Demand Trends - Platinum demand saw a 10% increase in Q1 2025, with jewelry demand rising by 9% and investment demand surging by 28% to 14 tons. Notably, China's platinum bar demand grew by 140%, surpassing North America as the largest retail investment market [3][10]. - The jewelry market for platinum is recovering, with increased consumer interest as gold prices rise, leading to a resurgence in platinum jewelry sales [3][5]. Technical Analysis - The Gold-Platinum Ratio is currently around 2.75, indicating that platinum may be undervalued, which is attracting more investment [4][9]. - Recent data shows a significant increase in platinum futures positions, with total open interest rising from 70,592 contracts on May 22 to 77,787 contracts by May 30, reflecting a warming market sentiment [4][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that while there is a reasonable narrative for a bullish trend in platinum, caution is advised as the market may not sustain linear growth. The automotive industry's demand decline and potential supply increases could limit long-term price growth [9][10]. - The supply-demand balance for platinum is projected to show a deficit of approximately 41.2 tons in 2025, with demand growth expected at 10.8% [10].

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced significant volatility, with prices soaring from $2500 per ounce in mid-2024 to a peak of $3500 by April 2025, followed by a sharp correction of over 7% within weeks, raising concerns about the sustainability of the bull market [1][4]. Group 1: Market Indicators - The gold-to-silver ratio has reached an extreme of 100:1, significantly above the historical average of 70:1, indicating potential for either a downward adjustment in gold prices or a strong rally in silver prices [3]. - The gold-to-platinum ratio has climbed to 3.5, whereas it typically fluctuates between 1 and 2 over the past 20 years, suggesting that gold may be severely overvalued relative to platinum [3]. Group 2: Drivers of Gold Price Surge - The surge in gold prices from 2022 to 2023 was driven by escalating global geopolitical tensions, leading central banks, including those of China and Poland, to significantly increase their gold reserves, thereby boosting demand [4]. - The announcement of tariffs by the Trump administration heightened trade tensions and market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. - Expectations of the Federal Reserve shifting to a loose monetary policy in 2025 further enhanced gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset, reducing its opportunity cost compared to other investments [4]. Group 3: Changing Market Dynamics - Recent positive signals from the White House regarding trade negotiations have reduced market risk aversion, while a strong rebound in the dollar index has put downward pressure on gold prices [5]. - The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has risen to 4.23%, with real yields approaching 2%, diminishing gold's attractiveness as an investment [5]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Key upcoming events include the decision on whether to reinstate tariffs after the 90-day pause and the timing of potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, both of which will significantly influence market sentiment and gold prices [5]. - Despite short-term pressures, analysts maintain a long-term optimistic outlook for gold, citing the U.S. federal debt surpassing $36 trillion and ongoing geopolitical complexities as factors that will continue to support gold's value as a safe-haven asset [5].