| | | 沪铅产业日报 2025-11-20 扩大导致的进口增加，并且再生铅开工积极，预计铅库存仍有累积空间。综合来看，沪铅市场整体供应增 长幅度受限，需求增长也面临一定阻力；且库存端预计将继续累积的情况下，继续维持震荡概率加大。今 日沪铅价格维持震荡，盘面未有太大波动，继续关注16980支撑位 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17220 | -30 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2014.5 | -12.5 | | | 12-01月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -20 | 0 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 82766 | -4281 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -3236 | 573 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 0 | 0 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 42790 | 4208 LME铅库存(日,吨) | ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The Shanghai lead market is expected to fluctuate slightly stronger next week, but the strength is limited. It is recommended to short at high prices and arrange short positions for lead prices when the price is high. If the Fed's interest rate cut next week falls short of expectations, the market may form a negative feedback [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 17,355 yuan/ton, down 165 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 2,023.5 US dollars/ton, up 7 US dollars. The 12 - 01 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 10 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest was 123,029 lots, down 6,161 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 1,110 lots, up 1,751 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 23,097 tons, up 49 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 36,333 tons, down 5,368 tons; the LME lead inventory was 232,375 tons, down 3,000 tons [2]. Spot Market - The spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 lead was 17,225 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 lead was 17,340 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract was - 130 yuan/ton, up 140 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 33.8 US dollars/ton, up 2.84 US dollars [2]. Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan was 16,671 yuan, up 275 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 17,140 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was 22,000 tons, up 45,500 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 35.56%, down 2.32 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 82.65%, up 1.01 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 39,600 tons, up 500 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was - 2,500 tons, up 3,100 tons. The global lead ore output was 383,300 tons, up 3,400 tons. The lead ore import volume was 150,600 tons, up 15,800 tons [2]. Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 1,507.92 tons, down 312.63 tons. The refined lead export volume was 1,486.13 tons, down 1,266.09 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory was 380 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,016.07 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 45,696,000, down 3,984,000. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources was 2,022.6 points, down 20.23 points. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 19,450 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The monthly automobile output was 3.227 million, up 474,600. The monthly new - energy vehicle output was 1.58 million, up 247,000 [2]. Industry News - Amazon plans to lay off up to 30,000 people. The UK will stop disclosing the identities of short - sellers in the stock market. Zelensky said that a cease - fire plan will be formulated with allies within seven to ten days. Qualcomm launched an AI chip to compete with AMD and NVIDIA. The US extended the trade negotiation deadline by several weeks. The Philippine central bank official said that the gold reserve is "excessive" and a part should be sold for profit. OPEC+ oil - producing countries tend to implement a small - scale production increase again in December at the Sunday meeting [2]. View Summary - On the supply side, for primary lead, although some smelters plan to boost annual production and sales, there are many overhauls from October to November, so the output is expected to increase slightly. For recycled lead, the smelters affected by Document No. 770 are gradually resuming production, but the raw material inventory is low, and the waste transportation of recycled lead enterprises is affected by environmental protection requirements in the heating season in the north, so the output recovery is limited, and the lead ingot spot will remain tight in the short term. On the demand side, after the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays, the weekly operating rate of lead - acid battery enterprises has rebounded significantly. Entering the traditional consumption season, the replacement market of automobiles and electric bicycles supports the demand for lead. Some leading battery enterprises have good orders and expand energy - storage business, which will further increase the demand for lead. However, since September, the Shanghai - London ratio of lead ingots has gradually expanded, and the export of Chinese lead - acid batteries is under pressure due to tariffs, which will suppress the demand growth to some extent. The inventory has been decreasing, but with the expected increase in imported lead arrivals and the possible increase in recycled lead output, the inventory may change next week. If the inventory decline slows down, it will resist price increases [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the Fed's news and takes profit, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to lay out long positions when the lead price is low [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,085 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the Shanghai lead position is 98,958 lots, down 1,965 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 280 lots, down 334 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt is 41,610 tons, down 2,747 tons; the SHFE inventory is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 1,999.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars; the LME lead inventory is 221,675 tons, up 1,375 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,975 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,170 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 45.16 US dollars/ton, down 1.44 US dollars; the price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,840 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS monthly supply - demand balance of lead is 22,000 tons, up 45,500 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,900 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG monthly supply - demand balance of lead is - 500 tons, up 1,300 tons; the ILZSG global lead ore monthly output is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons; the monthly refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries is 10,137.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of batteries is 49.68 million, up 1.925 million; the average daily price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,100 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 2,157.48 points, up 31.88 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.7524 million, up 242,400; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.333 million, up 157,000 [3]. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Bostic believes there is not much reason for further rate cuts this year and expects only one cut; Musalem thinks the space for further rate cuts is limited and won't support it if inflation risks increase; Harker is cautious about lifting policy restrictions; Milan believes the appropriate interest rate is around 2% and doesn't support adjusting the 2% inflation target. The US Treasury Secretary signals support for Argentina, and the Argentine stock market strengthens. The White House may exempt doctors' H - 1B visa fees. There are also other news such as the possible non - impact of the Saudi - Pakistani defense agreement on Saudi oil supply to India, the US energy minister's view on offshore wind power, France's recognition of the Palestinian state, Nvidia's plan to invest $100 billion in OpenAI, and Pfizer's acquisition of Metersa [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, some primary lead smelters in regions like Henan and Inner Mongolia are in the centralized maintenance stage. The raw - material market is in a tight - balance state, with lead concentrate processing fees continuously falling and mostly sold on a pre - sale basis. The output of primary lead continues to decline. For recycled lead, due to environmental inspections and lower waste - battery recycling efficiency, capacity release has slowed down, and the operation remains at a low level in the short term. In the waste - battery market, as it is the off - season for scrapping, there are not many stocks, and the arrival of goods at refineries is poor, which restricts the output of recycled lead. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries, the main consumption area of lead, is relatively stable. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is gradually warming up, and the market expects an increase in demand for lead in the main consumption areas. The energy - storage demand in emerging fields is also good. However, when the price rises, the spot trading is average, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. Although the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting has improved marginally and some battery factories have production - increase plans, the overall demand has not shown a significant explosive growth and is still in a slow - recovery stage. In terms of inventory, both domestic and foreign lead inventories have decreased, and the overall inventory has declined, indicating that demand effectively drives inventory reduction [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests a strategy of shorting on rallies for Shanghai lead futures [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The overall supply of Shanghai lead is expected to increase slightly, but the price is under pressure due to weakening demand. The domestic inventory increases slightly due to the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, while the overseas inventory starts to accumulate again, putting significant pressure on lead prices. The overseas economic situation is deteriorating, so it is recommended to short on rallies [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,200 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 2,041.5 dollars/ton, up 3 dollars. The 08 - 09 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 82,414 lots, down 753 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 119 lots, down 1,022 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 46,389 tons, up 101 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory is 51,929 tons, up 638 tons; the LME lead inventory is 271,925 tons, down 1,500 tons [3] 现货市场 - The spot price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network 1 lead is 16,925 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market 1 lead is 17,180 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 250 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 22.14 dollars/ton, down 0.74 dollars. The price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 16,303 yuan, up 274 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,860 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan [3] Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 76.79%, up 2.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.58 tons, up 0.01 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 40 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16.4 thousand tons, up 48.8 thousand tons; the global lead ore output is 399.7 thousand tons, down 3.7 thousand tons. The lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [3] Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 640 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,151.79 yuan/ton, down 26.78 yuan [3] Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries is 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,794.51 points, up 12.59 points. The monthly automobile output is 264.2 tons, up 3.8 tons; the monthly new - energy automobile output is 164.7 tons, up 7.3 tons [3] Industry News - US officials are seeking to narrow the scope of the trade agreement and strive to reach an agreement by July 9. India is seeking to reach a temporary trade agreement with the US this week. Trump's tariffs and low water levels have led to serious supply - chain congestion at European ports. Japan will not sacrifice its agricultural sector in trade negotiations with the US. Trump will send a letter on tariffs to Japan. The US agriculture secretary said Trump may exempt tariffs on agricultural products that are difficult to grow in the US [3] Viewpoint Summary - The Chicago business activity index in the US in June decreased slightly, and the Dallas Fed business activity index contracted for the fifth consecutive month. The operating rate and output of primary lead refineries increased due to the rising lead price. The loss pressure of recycled lead decreased, but the subsequent production increase of recycled lead is difficult due to the traditional off - season in the second quarter. The market trading is weak, and the support for lead prices is limited. The demand for charging piles and automobiles shows signs of slowing down. The overseas inventory declines again, and the domestic inventory declines slightly while the warehouse receipts increase. The lead concentrate processing fee starts to decline, which has a negative impact on the subsequent output of recycled lead and primary lead [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, providing some support for prices, but the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Affected by the diminishing marginal effect of national subsidies, domestic inventories have increased slightly, while overseas inventories remain high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. It is recommended to short on rallies from a technical perspective [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,890 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,987.5 US dollars/ton, down 0.5 US dollars/ton. The 07 - 08 month contract spread of Shanghai lead was - 15 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton; the Shanghai lead open interest was 81,138 lots, up 754 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was - 241 lots, up 379 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 43,731 tons, up 1,134 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 47,936 tons, up 1,436 tons; the LME lead inventory was 278,025 tons, down 1,950 tons [2] 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,700 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,840 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton. The basis of the lead main contract was - 190 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 27.55 US dollars/ton, up 0.4 US dollars/ton. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 15,796 yuan, down 1.87 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,570 yuan/ton, up 68 yuan/ton. The number of production enterprises of recycled lead was 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 51.28%, down 3.13%; the production of recycled lead was 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 70.88%, up 0.31%; the weekly production of primary lead was 3.5 tons, up 0.11 tons [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports was - 30 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the lead supply - demand balance of ILZSG was 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons; the global lead ore production of ILZSG was 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the lead ore import volume was 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average market price of waste batteries was 10,073.21 yuan/ton, up 23.21 yuan/ton [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The export volume of batteries was 41,450,000, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,275 yuan/ton, up 75 yuan/ton. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells was 1,687.25 points, down 3.09 points; the monthly automobile production was 2.604 million, down 440,600; the monthly new energy vehicle production was 1.647 million, up 73,000 [2] 3.6 Industry News - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology supports car companies' "60 - day payment period" commitment to promote the healthy development of the industry. Shenzhen will expand low - altitude economic scenarios and accelerate the implementation of demonstration applications. Trump said that the US and China have reached an agreement, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded. The US added slightly more non - farm payrolls in May than expected, with significant downward revisions to the previous two months' data; the unemployment rate was stable, and the average hourly wage was better than expected; the bets on the Fed's interest rate cut decreased [2] 3.7 View Summary - The overall supply of recycled lead has limited growth. The price of 1 lead increased by 75 yuan/ton to 16,700 yuan/ton, and the price of waste batteries increased by 50 - 300 yuan/ton. The market trading was generally light, and the support for lead prices was limited. The demand for charging piles and automobiles showed a slowdown. Overseas inventories decreased slightly but remained high, and demand was significantly affected by tariffs; domestic inventories decreased significantly due to production decline, and overseas prices restricted the upward space of domestic prices. The lead concentrate processing fee remained low, which affected the resumption of production of recycled lead and primary lead. The overall supply of Shanghai lead decreased, which supported prices to some extent, but the price was still under pressure due to weakening demand [2]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the content [1][2][3] Group 2: Report Core View - The price of lead has been falling, causing the loss pressure of secondary lead to expand. Secondary lead smelters are forced to lower their operating rates due to losses and raw material constraints. The 1 lead price dropped by 50 yuan/ton to 16,625 yuan/ton today, while the price of waste batteries has generally stabilized, with individual smelters adjusting prices by 50 - 100 yuan/ton. On the demand side, downstream battery factories' recent raw material procurement rhythm has not changed significantly, mainly maintaining just - in - time procurement. The market trading performance is rather weak. In terms of inventory, overseas inventory is accumulating, and demand is significantly affected by tariffs; domestic inventory is slightly decreasing, but overseas prices are suppressing the upward space of domestic prices. From the perspective of lead concentrate processing fees, although there is no fluctuation, they remain at a low level, which has a partial impact on the subsequent resumption of work of secondary and primary lead. The operation suggestion is to go short on rallies [2] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead futures contract is 16,825 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 1,994 US dollars/ton, up 30 US dollars. The spread between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai lead is 15 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 69,256 lots, down 4,036 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 450 lots, up 1,819 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 37,299 tons, up 2,015 tons. The SHFE inventory is 48,428 tons, down 7,044 tons; the LME lead inventory is 294,025 tons, down 1,800 tons. The spot price of 1 lead on SMM is 16,625 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,920 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan [2] 现货市场 - The basis of the lead main contract is - 200 yuan/ton, down 80 yuan; the LME lead (0 - 3) spread is - 17.65 US dollars/ton, up 4.72 US dollars. The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 15,945 yuan, down 133 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,620 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] Upstream Situation - The WBMS lead supply - demand balance is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, up 3. The capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points. The monthly output of secondary lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons. The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 73.88%, down 0.78 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 34,300 tons, down 200 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 20 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The lead ore import volume is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2] Industrial Situation - The refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,019.64 yuan/ton, down 46.43 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450,000 pieces, down 425,000 pieces. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,550 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan. The Shenwan Industry Index of batteries and other power sources is 1,644.63 points, down 0.77 points. The monthly automobile production is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 454,000 vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle production is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2] Industry News - Trump is considering withdrawing $3 billion in funding from Harvard University and distributing it to schools across the country. The fourth - round Japan - US tariff negotiation is scheduled for the 30th, and the Japanese government plans to use 900 billion yen in national funds to ease the impact of US tariffs. The EU spokesman said that the EU's "zero - tariff for zero - tariff" proposal in the negotiation with the US is still on the table, and the EU has planned to speed up the negotiation with the US. A new Gaza cease - fire agreement will include Israel's "partial withdrawal". Iran is fully prepared to strike Israel appropriately and will not accept suspending uranium enrichment to reach a nuclear agreement with the US [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Lead smelters'开工率 and output decline due to unclear lead prices; the continuous decline in lead prices expands the loss pressure of secondary lead, forcing secondary lead smelters to cut 开工率 due to losses and raw material constraints [2] - The market trading is generally weak on the demand side, providing limited support for lead prices [2] - Overseas inventories continue to decline but at a small margin, and demand is significantly affected by tariffs; domestic inventories increase slightly, and overseas prices suppress the upward space of domestic prices [2] - Although the lead concentrate processing fee remains stable, it is still at a low level, which has a partial impact on the resumption of secondary lead and primary lead production [2] - The main contract of Shanghai lead has changed to 2507, and the operation suggestion is to short on rallies [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,685 yuan/ton, down 215 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quote is 1,986.5 US dollars/ton, up 25 US dollars [2] - The price difference between the 07 - 08 contracts of Shanghai lead is 0 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the trading volume of Shanghai lead is 65,208 lots, down 4,113 lots [2] - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,627 lots, down 163 lots; the warehouse receipts of Shanghai lead are 39,327 tons, down 1,769 tons [2] - The inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 55,472 tons, up 5,968 tons; the LME lead inventory is 245,750 tons, down 600 tons [2] Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,625 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,990 yuan/ton, up 150 yuan [2] - The basis of the lead main contract is - 60 yuan/ton, up 115 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 24.07 US dollars/ton, down 6.01 US dollars [2] - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 16,078 yuan, up 149 yuan; the price of domestic secondary lead (≥98.5%) is 16,660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan [2] - The number of secondary lead production enterprises is 68, up 3; the capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points; the monthly output of secondary lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons [2] - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 74.66%, down 2.85 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.45 tons, down 0.08 tons [2] Upstream Situation - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 20 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the lead supply - demand balance of ILZSG is 16.4 kilotons, up 48.8 kilotons [2] - The global lead ore output of ILZSG is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2] Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 720 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - The monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,085.71 yuan/ton, up 26.78 yuan [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41,450,000, down 425,000; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,550 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan [2] - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 1,717.23 points, up 52.07 points; the monthly automobile output is 3.0446 million, down 454,000 [2] - The monthly output of new energy vehicles is 1.647 million, up 73,000 [2] Industry News - The Speaker of the US House of Representatives said an agreement has been reached on the $40,000 state and local tax deduction cap, and the voting time for the tax bill has not been decided [2] - The auction demand for 20 - year US Treasury bonds is weak, the yields of 20 - year and 30 - year US Treasury bonds have risen above 5%, and the US stock market has fallen sharply [2] - US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo hopes to reach trade agreements with most major partners before the expiration of the tariff suspension this summer [2] - The EU is reported to propose a trade proposal to the US to promote negotiations [2] - Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he will fully control Gaza and reserve the right to take unilateral action against Iran; many countries condemned the Israeli army for firing at the diplomatic mission in the West Bank [2] - US media reported that Israel is preparing to quickly strike Iran's nuclear facilities if the US - Iran negotiations break down [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report Core View - The supply side of lead is affected by unclear lead prices, with the operating rate and production of primary lead refineries declining. The continuous decline in lead prices has increased the loss pressure of secondary lead, and secondary lead refineries have been forced to lower their operating rates due to losses and raw material constraints. The demand side has weak support for lead prices, with overall light market transactions. Overseas inventories are still being depleted, but the decline is small, and demand is significantly affected by tariffs. Domestic inventories have increased slightly, and overseas prices are suppressing the upward space of domestic prices. The lead concentrate processing fee remains low, which has a partial impact on the resumption of work of secondary and primary lead. It is recommended to short on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main Shanghai lead contract is 16,845 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the 3 - month LME lead quote is 2,000 dollars/ton, down 4.5 dollars. The spread between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai lead is - 10 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the Shanghai lead open interest is 68,494 lots, up 835 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is - 2,464 lots, up 78 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 44,980 tons, down 5,067 tons. The SHFE inventory is 55,472 tons, up 5,968 tons; the LME lead inventory is 248,850 tons, down 1,825 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead from Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,650 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead from Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,890 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 195 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 4.45 dollars/ton, up 0.38 dollars [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The price of 50% - 60% lead concentrate in Jiyuan is 16,078 yuan, down 1.87 yuan. The production capacity utilization rate of secondary lead is 54.41%, up 18.29 percentage points; the monthly output of secondary lead is 22.42 tons, down 6.75 tons. The average operating rate of primary lead is 74.66%, down 2.85 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 3.45 tons, down 0.08 tons. The processing fee of 60% lead concentrate at major ports is - 20 dollars/kiloton, unchanged. The global lead mine output is 399.7 kilotons, down 3.7 kilotons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 11.97 tons, up 2.48 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The monthly refined lead import volume is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly refined lead export volume is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average price of waste batteries in the market is 10,058.93 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The monthly export volume of lead - acid batteries is 41,450 thousand units, down 425 thousand units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy for batteries is 20,625 yuan/ton, down 125 yuan. The Shenwan industry index of lead - acid batteries and other batteries is 1,654.38 points, up 7.26 points. The monthly automobile output is 3.0446 million vehicles, down 0.454 million vehicles; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, up 0.073 million vehicles [2]. 3.6行业消息 - The US Treasury is not expected to announce any trade agreements at the G7 finance ministers' meeting this week. The UK and the EU have reached agreements in multiple fields such as fisheries, defense security, and trade. India is discussing a three - part US trade agreement, and a temporary agreement is expected to be reached before July. The US Conference Board Leading Index monthly rate in April was - 1%, the largest decline since March 2023. Some Fed officials have expressed their views on interest - rate cuts and market mechanisms [2].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply side shows a decline, with a slight drop in the production of secondary refined lead and electrolytic lead. The price of 1 lead dropped by 100 yuan/ton to 16,600 yuan/ton, and the price of waste batteries was adjusted by 20 - 200 yuan/ton. - The demand side is affected by the off - season, with tight supply circulation, low inventory arrivals for some smelters, and reduced purchasing volume and light trading for recyclers. It is expected that the price of waste batteries will remain stable with a weakening trend in the short term. - Overall, the change in supply - side production is not significant, the demand side remains weak, downstream manufacturers are still waiting and watching, and high foreign inventories suppress the upward movement of lead prices. It is recommended to lightly short the Shanghai lead main contract 2506 at around 17,000 yuan/ton, with a stop - loss at 17,300 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton; the LME 3 - month lead quote was 1,977 US dollars/ton, an increase of 10 US dollars/ton. - The price difference between the 06 - 07 contracts of Shanghai lead was - 30 yuan/ton, a decrease of 45 yuan/ton; the Shanghai lead open interest was 66,347 lots, a decrease of 56 lots. - The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead was 547 lots, an increase of 665 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipts were 38,675 tons, an increase of 277 tons. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange inventory was 46,786 tons, an increase of 1,132 tons; the LME lead inventory was 267,275 tons, a decrease of 3,750 tons [2]. 3.2现货市场 - The spot price of 1 lead in the Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network was 16,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market was 16,880 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. - The basis of the lead main contract was - 100 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) was - 11.35 US dollars/ton, an increase of 4.51 US dollars/ton. - The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan was 16,179 yuan, an increase of 76 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) was 16,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead was - 18,700 tons, an increase of 7,100 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises was 68. - The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead was 54.41%, an increase of 18.29 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead was 224,200 tons, a decrease of 67,500 tons. - The average weekly operating rate of primary lead was 73.69%, a decrease of 0.63 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead was 32,400 tons, an increase of 400 tons. - The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports was - 20 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG lead supply - demand balance was 16,400 tons, an increase of 48,800 tons. - The global lead ore output was 399,700 tons, a decrease of 3,700 tons; the lead ore import volume was 119,700 tons, an increase of 24,800 tons [2]. 3.4产业情况 - The refined lead import volume was 815.37 tons, a decrease of 1,021.76 tons; the average domestic processing fee of lead concentrate at the factory was 720 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The refined lead export volume was 2,109.62 tons, an increase of 223.33 tons; the average price of waste batteries in the market was 10,075 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.5下游情况 - The export volume of batteries was 41,450,000 units, a decrease of 425,000 units; the average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) was 20,725 yuan/ton, a decrease of 75 yuan/ton. - The Shenwan industry index of the tertiary industry of batteries and other cells was 1,581.51 points, an increase of 26.97 points; the monthly automobile output was 3,044,600 vehicles, a decrease of 454,000 vehicles. - The monthly output of new energy vehicles was 1,647,000 vehicles, an increase of 73,000 vehicles [2]. 3.6行业消息 - The US April ISM non - manufacturing PMI rose from 50.8 in March to 51.6 in April, and the index measuring service input prices jumped to 65.1, the highest since January 2023. - Regarding tariffs, India proposed zero - tariff treatment for a certain amount of US auto parts and steel; the US rejected Japan's request for a full exemption from the 10% reciprocal tariff; the White House has not made a final decision on movie tariffs; Trump will announce tariff measures on pharmaceutical products in the next two weeks. - The US provided a $1,000 subsidy to encourage immigrants to leave voluntarily. The initial jobless claims in the week ending April 26 were 241,000, the highest since the week of February 22, 2025. - The Kremlin said that Putin accepted Modi's invitation to visit India [2].