电池出口受关税影响承压，会在一定程度上抑制需求增长。库存持续下降。但随着进口铅到港预期增加， 研究员: 黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 以及再生铅产量后续可能的提升，下周库存可能有一定变化，若库存去化速度放缓，将对价格上涨形成一 免责声明 定阻力。综合来看，沪铅下周预计震荡偏强，但强度有限，若下周联储降息不及预期，市场行情可能会形 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 沪铅产业日报 2025-10-28 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17355 | -165 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2023.5 | 7 | | | 12-01月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -10 | -5 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 123029 | -6161 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | 1110 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information regarding the report industry investment rating is provided in the document. 2. Core View of the Report The overall supply of Shanghai lead has decreased slightly, demand is slowly increasing. After the market digests the Fed's news and takes profit, the market shows a high - level consolidation. It is recommended to lay out long positions when the lead price is low [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 17,085 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the 11 - 12 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is - 25 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; the Shanghai lead position is 98,958 lots, down 1,965 lots; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 280 lots, down 334 lots; the Shanghai lead warehouse receipt is 41,610 tons, down 2,747 tons; the SHFE inventory is 57,332 tons, down 9,229 tons; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 1,999.5 US dollars/ton, down 3.5 US dollars; the LME lead inventory is 221,675 tons, up 1,375 tons [3]. Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,975 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 17,170 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the basis of the lead main contract is - 110 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 45.16 US dollars/ton, down 1.44 US dollars; the price of lead concentrate 50% - 60% in Jiyuan is 16,471 yuan, up 175 yuan; the price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,840 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan [3]. Upstream Situation - The WBMS monthly supply - demand balance of lead is 22,000 tons, up 45,500 tons; the number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged; the capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 37.88%, up 0.61 percentage points; the monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons; the average weekly operating rate of primary lead is 80.56%, down 0.96 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 35,900 tons, unchanged; the processing fee of lead concentrate 60% at major ports is - 90 US dollars/kiloton, unchanged; the ILZSG monthly supply - demand balance of lead is - 500 tons, up 1,300 tons; the ILZSG global lead ore monthly output is 395,900 tons, up 15,700 tons; the monthly lead ore import volume is 134,800 tons, up 12,700 tons; the monthly refined lead import volume is 1,820.55 tons, down 1,596.29 tons; the average weekly domestic processing fee of lead concentrate to the factory is 370 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. Industry Situation - The monthly refined lead export volume is 2,752.22 tons, up 957.7 tons; the average daily price of waste batteries is 10,137.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the monthly export volume of batteries is 49.68 million, up 1.925 million; the average daily price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, containing 2% antimony) is 20,100 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan [3]. Downstream Situation - The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other power sources is 2,157.48 points, up 31.88 points; the monthly automobile output is 2.7524 million, up 242,400; the monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.333 million, up 157,000 [3]. Industry News - Fed officials have different views on interest - rate cuts. Bostic believes there is not much reason for further rate cuts this year and expects only one cut; Musalem thinks the space for further rate cuts is limited and won't support it if inflation risks increase; Harker is cautious about lifting policy restrictions; Milan believes the appropriate interest rate is around 2% and doesn't support adjusting the 2% inflation target. The US Treasury Secretary signals support for Argentina, and the Argentine stock market strengthens. The White House may exempt doctors' H - 1B visa fees. There are also other news such as the possible non - impact of the Saudi - Pakistani defense agreement on Saudi oil supply to India, the US energy minister's view on offshore wind power, France's recognition of the Palestinian state, Nvidia's plan to invest $100 billion in OpenAI, and Pfizer's acquisition of Metersa [3]. Supply - Demand Analysis - On the supply side, some primary lead smelters in regions like Henan and Inner Mongolia are in the centralized maintenance stage. The raw - material market is in a tight - balance state, with lead concentrate processing fees continuously falling and mostly sold on a pre - sale basis. The output of primary lead continues to decline. For recycled lead, due to environmental inspections and lower waste - battery recycling efficiency, capacity release has slowed down, and the operation remains at a low level in the short term. In the waste - battery market, as it is the off - season for scrapping, there are not many stocks, and the arrival of goods at refineries is poor, which restricts the output of recycled lead. On the demand side, the demand for lead - acid batteries, the main consumption area of lead, is relatively stable. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is gradually warming up, and the market expects an increase in demand for lead in the main consumption areas. The energy - storage demand in emerging fields is also good. However, when the price rises, the spot trading is average, and downstream enterprises are still mostly in a wait - and - see state. Although the atmosphere of downstream bargain - hunting has improved marginally and some battery factories have production - increase plans, the overall demand has not shown a significant explosive growth and is still in a slow - recovery stage. In terms of inventory, both domestic and foreign lead inventories have decreased, and the overall inventory has declined, indicating that demand effectively drives inventory reduction [3].

| | | | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 17200 | 75 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2041.5 | 3 | | | 08-09月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | -25 | -5 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 82414 | -753 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | 119 | -1022 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 46389 | 101 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 51929 | 638 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 271925 | -1500 | | | | 16925 | -25 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 17180 | -80 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -250 | -125 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -22.14 | -0.74 | | | 铅精矿50%-60%价格,济源(日 ...

沪铅产业日报 2025-06-12 低位，因此对于后续再生铅和原生铅复工起到了部分影响。综上所述，沪铅整体供应下滑，对价格有一定 支撑，但沪铅价格受到需求减弱影响继续承压下跌，受到国补消费边际递减影响，国内库存小幅增加，但 免责声明 海外库存依旧较高，铅价承压明显，后续注意关税政策变化带来的新增影响。从技术面看目前正在走三角 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 形整理结构，目前沪铅上涨动能有所减缓，注意短期压力位能否突破，操作上建议，逢高空为主。 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日, ...

沪铅产业日报 2025-05-27 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16825 | 30 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1994 | 30 | | | 07-08月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | 15 | 15 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 69256 | -4036 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -450 | 1819 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 37299 | 2015 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 48428 | -7044 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 294025 | -1800 | | | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16625 | -50 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16920 | 130 | | 现货市场 | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -200 | -80 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -17.65 | 4.72 | | | 铅精矿50 ...

| 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16685 | -215 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 1986.5 | 25 | | | 07-08月合约价差:沪铅(日,元/吨) | 0 | 5 沪铅持仓量(日,手) | 65208 | -4113 | | | 沪铅前20名净持仓(日,手) | -2627 | -163 沪铅仓单(日,吨) | 39327 | -1769 | | | 上期所库存(周,吨) | 55472 | 5968 LME铅库存(日,吨) | 245750 | -600 | | 现货市场 | 上海有色网1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16625 | -100 长江有色市场1#铅现货价(日,元/吨) | 16990 | 150 | | | 铅主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | -60 | 115 LME铅升贴水(0-3)(日,美元/吨) | -24.07 | -6.01 | | | 铅精矿50%-60%价格,济源(日) W ...

空间。从铅精矿加工角度来看，虽然没有波动，但是依旧维持低位，因此对于后续再生铅和原生铅复工起 研究员: 王福辉 期货从业资格号F03123381 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0019878 到了部分影响。操作上建议，逢高空为主。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 沪铅产业日报 2025-05-20 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 沪铅主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 16845 | -15 LME3个月铅报价(日,美元/吨) | 2000 | -4.5 | | | 06-07月合约价差:沪铅(日 ...