【冠通期货研究报告】 沪铜日报：情绪降温，铜价偏弱 发布日期：2026 年 1 月 27 日 【行情分析】 沪铜高开低走，日内收跌。供给方面，在本周四，卡普斯通铜业公司称，因最大工 会与公司未达成集体谈判协议引发罢工，致其位于智利的曼托韦德铜矿停产，该矿预计 2025 年阴极铜产量为 2.9 万至 3.2 万吨。TC/RC 费用保持弱稳，且出现进一步下探的趋 势，市场对供应端紧张的态度未曾改变。SMM 根据各家排产情况，预计 1 月国内电解铜 产量环比下降 1.45 万吨降幅为 1.23%，同比增加 15.63 万吨升幅为 14.78%。需求方面， 截至 2025 年 12 月，铜表观消费量为 131.88 万吨，环比上月增长 4.00%。临近春节叠加 铜价高企，大多中小企业开启放假，对原料端的采购意愿低迷，终端新能源汽车表现不 佳，其他传统行业冰箱及空调等有出现小幅的上涨。美国对铜关税征收的预期减弱后， C-L 价差收敛，美国铜库存或有外溢，非美库存有增加，若持续价差收敛，全球由铜关 税引起的库存结构失衡将缓解，整体供应端或边际转好，故铜盘面我们预计短期高位震 荡为主，下半年随着矿端复产，一旦供应宽松显现， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the copper market is experiencing a significant price increase due to supply disruptions caused by an accident at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine, which is expected to impact production levels until 2027 [1] - The accident has led to a projected 35% decrease in copper output for 2026, amounting to approximately 270,000 tons, which raises concerns about medium to long-term copper supply [1] - The recent surge in copper prices, breaking through previous low volatility levels, is anticipated to drive a substantial increase in the average copper price for the fourth quarter [1] Group 2 - In the macroeconomic context, U.S. new home sales for August reached an annualized rate of 800,000, significantly exceeding expectations of 650,000, and showing a month-over-month increase of 20.5% [2] - The strong demand in the U.S. housing market indicates robust economic resilience, contrasting with previous expectations of a decline [2] - Inventory levels for copper have decreased across various exchanges, with LME stocks down by 200 tons to 144,775 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts down by 308 tons to 27,419 tons, reflecting tightening supply conditions [4]