本周行业会议上矿商与冶炼厂围绕加工费激烈博弈，冶炼产能过剩令矿商占据主导，加工费跌至负值。大量精炼铜因关税预期流向美国，预计明年一季度 美国将持有全球90%铜库存，加剧其他地区供应短缺，全球最大铜生产商智利Codelco日前向中国开出每吨350美元创纪录溢价，全球铜市面临"极度错 配"。降息预期升温之际美元走软，也助推铜价走高。 分析指出，这场博弈的影响正在向全球扩散。随着美国因关税预期吸引大量精炼铜，全球最大铜生产商智利国家铜业公司（Codelco）等供应商已向部 分中国客户开出每吨350美元的创纪录溢价。同时，美元因美联储降息的预期升温而走软，降低了海外买家采购成本，进一步支撑铜价上行。 矿商与冶炼厂正面交锋 美东时间28日周五美股早盘时段，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的期铜交易价涨至11210美元/吨附近，创盘中历史新高，日内涨幅扩大到2.5%，到收盘涨 近2.3%左右，报11189美元/吨，刷新一个月前所创的收盘最高纪录。这是继10月29日创下收盘纪录后，铜价再度突破关键阻力位。 伦铜创新高正逢铜供应极度吃紧。据周五稍早媒体报道，本周在上海举行的行业会议上，矿商与冶炼厂围绕加工费展开激烈谈判，矿商施压要求 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global copper market is experiencing unprecedented supply chain tensions, driven by fierce negotiations between miners and smelters, tariff expectations from the U.S., and record metal premiums, leading to copper prices reaching new highs [1]. Group 1: Copper Price Dynamics - On October 28, copper prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME) surged to approximately $11,210 per ton, marking a 2.5% intraday increase and closing at $11,189 per ton, a new record high [1]. - The recent price surge follows a previous record set on October 29, indicating a significant upward trend in copper prices [1]. Group 2: Supply Chain Tensions - The copper supply chain is under extreme pressure, with miners pushing for record-low processing fees during intense negotiations with smelters at an industry conference in Shanghai [1][3]. - The annual premium for refined copper shipped to China has reached an all-time high, reflecting the tight supply situation [2]. Group 3: Global Market Implications - The intense negotiations between miners and smelters are causing a ripple effect globally, with major suppliers like Codelco offering record premiums of $350 per ton to certain Chinese customers, significantly higher than the previously agreed $89 [2][4]. - The expectation that the U.S. will absorb a large amount of refined copper is leading to a supply mismatch, with projections indicating that by Q1 2026, the U.S. could hold 90% of the global copper inventory [4]. Group 4: Currency Influence - The weakening of the U.S. dollar, driven by expectations of further monetary easing by the Federal Reserve, is contributing to the rise in copper prices by lowering procurement costs for overseas buyers [5]. - The ICE dollar index has been declining, which supports metal prices, including copper, amidst supply disruptions and policy-driven buying [5].

全球铜市场正经历供应链有史以来最紧张的时期，矿商与冶炼厂的激烈博弈、美国关税预期引发的供应 错配以及创纪录的金属溢价，共同推动铜价突破新高。 美东时间28日周五美股早盘时段，伦敦金属交易所（LME）的期铜交易价涨至11210美元/吨附近，创盘 中历史新高，日内涨幅扩大到2.5%。若收盘涨幅保持在2.2%左右，有望刷新一个月前所创的收盘最高 纪录。这是继10月29日创下收盘纪录后，铜价再度突破关键阻力位。 伦铜创新高正逢铜供应极度吃紧。据周五稍早媒体报道，本周在上海举行的行业会议上，矿商与冶炼厂 围绕加工费展开激烈谈判，矿商施压要求冶炼厂接受创纪录低位的加工费基准，而运往中国的精炼铜年 度溢价则跳升至历史新高。 Mercuria Energy Group金属研究负责人Nicholas Snowdon在会议期间表示，"这是铜供应链历史性的紧张 时刻"。供需失衡、特朗普贸易政策的不确定性等因素，共同推动了这场市场动荡。 报道称，价格谈判的激烈程度异乎寻常。德国铜冶炼商Aurubis AG的高管表示准备拒绝过低的年度加工 费基准，并对"负加工费"——即冶炼厂实际上要向矿商付费处理原材料——表达不满。中国主要金属行 业 ...

Core Insights - The global copper market is experiencing unprecedented supply chain tensions, with miners pressuring smelters for record-low processing fees while refined copper premiums to China have surged to historic highs [1][2] - The intense negotiations between miners and smelters are indicative of a significant supply-demand imbalance exacerbated by uncertainties related to trade policies [1][2] - The situation is leading to a potential shift in global copper supply dynamics, with U.S. demand expected to attract a substantial amount of refined copper, creating a mismatch in global supply [3][4] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Miners currently hold the upper hand in negotiations due to years of overexpansion in smelting capacity and unexpected supply disruptions this year [2] - The ongoing negotiations have led to a stalemate, with some participants potentially withdrawing from the established pricing system, complicating supply planning for the year [2] - The Chinese metal industry association has expressed strong opposition to the unsustainable negative processing fees, reflecting the pressure on miners from overcapacity issues [2] Group 2: U.S. Market Influence - The expectation of significant refined copper inflows to the U.S. is driven by high prices resulting from ongoing import tariff expectations [3] - By the first quarter of 2026, the U.S. is projected to hold 90% of the global copper inventory, indicating a drastic shift in market dynamics [3] - As the U.S. absorbs more copper cathodes, other markets will face increasing shortages, with suppliers like Chile's Codelco offering record premiums of $350 per ton to Chinese customers [4] Group 3: Future Implications - The changing flow of refined copper is reshaping the global supply landscape, with rising premiums reflecting heightened regional supply tensions [4] - The intensity of this demand shift should not be underestimated, as it poses significant scarcity risks for copper markets outside the U.S. in the coming months [4]