1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction in the alumina market lies in the conflict between the tight supply of domestic bauxite, low shipments from Guinea, and the high absolute level of bauxite inventory. The alumina market is in a state of supply surplus, and prices are expected to remain weak in the short - term [2]. - For electrolytic aluminum, the marginal demand in the peak season has improved, but the probability of a lackluster peak season is high. After a short - term price correction, the price is expected to remain volatile at a high level, with inventory being the key focus [3]. - In the case of cast aluminum alloy, the market is influenced by both positive and negative factors on the fundamental side. It is expected to maintain high - level volatility in the short - term, and attention should be paid to the registration of standard warehouse receipts [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 2877 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 2850 - 3100 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 14.78%, and a historical percentile of 10.14% over 3 years [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20685 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 20600 - 21200 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 6.45%, and a historical percentile of 18.82% over 3 years [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 20280 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19900 - 20800 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 5.96%, and a historical percentile of 30.26% over 3 years [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Alumina** - Inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell 75% of the alumina main futures contract at 3200 yuan/ton. - Raw material management: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the alumina main futures contract at 2850 yuan/ton [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell 90% of the Shanghai Aluminum main futures contract at 21300 yuan/ton. - Raw material management: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai Aluminum main futures contract at 20500 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum alloy** - Inventory management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell 80% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 20700 yuan/ton. - Raw material management: When the raw material inventory is low and there are concerns about price increases, buy 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 19900 yuan/ton [1]. 3.3 Core Contradictions - **Alumina**: The core contradiction in the bauxite market is the conflict between tight domestic supply, low Guinea shipments, and high inventory levels. The main factor affecting alumina prices is supply surplus, and the surplus state is expected to continue [2]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: The marginal demand in the peak season has improved, but the probability of a lackluster peak season is high. The price is affected by factors such as inventory and downstream purchasing sentiment, and is expected to remain volatile at a high level [3]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: The market is influenced by both positive and negative factors on the fundamental side. On one hand, raw material prices provide cost support, and pre - holiday restocking demand is positive; on the other hand, demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating [6]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Price**: The prices of various aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy contracts have shown different degrees of change, such as a - 0.29% daily decline in the Shanghai Aluminum main contract to 20685 yuan/ton [1][7]. - **Spread**: The spreads between different contracts of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy have also changed, for example, the spread between Shanghai Aluminum continuous and consecutive contracts has shown significant fluctuations [13]. 3.5 Inventory Data - **Aluminum**: The total Shanghai Aluminum warehouse receipts are 68960 tons, a decrease of 2.55%. The total LME aluminum inventory is 513850 tons, a decrease of 0.01% [29]. - **Alumina**: The total warehouse receipts for alumina in warehouses are 151006 tons, a decrease of 0.79% [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market is expected to remain in surplus in the second half of the year, with prices likely to fluctuate and adjust in the short term, supported by the full cost of high - cost regions (3000 - 3150). The trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market will maintain high - level oscillations in the short term, with a price range of 20300 - 21000. There is upward momentum in the medium term as the peak season approaches and there are expectations of a Fed rate cut [4]. - The cast aluminum alloy market has strong cost support from scrap aluminum, but demand is weakening. The futures price generally follows the trend of Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered when the price difference widens [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 3240 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 3000 - 3500 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 40.74%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 90.74% [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20715 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 20000 - 21000 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 9.86%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 41.99% [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 20140 yuan/ton, with a monthly price forecast range of 19500 - 20300 yuan/ton, a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 7.83%, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 37.50% [1]. 3.2 Risk Management Strategies - **Alumina** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 75% of the alumina main futures contract at 3500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the alumina main futures contract at 3100 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20700 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the Shanghai aluminum main futures contract at 20500 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - **Aluminum alloy** - Inventory management: When product inventory is high and worried about price drops, sell 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 20200 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. - Raw material management: When raw material inventory is low and worried about price increases, buy 50% of the aluminum alloy main futures contract at 19800 yuan/ton; options strategy is not suitable for now [1]. 3.3 Market Analysis of Each Product - **Alumina** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation is weak, with high domestic operating capacity, incoming imported alumina, and expected new production capacity release in the second half of the year. The market trading logic may shift to cost - based pricing, and prices will fluctuate in the short term [2]. - Bullish factors: The Guinean government has revoked some mining licenses [2]. - Bearish factors: High operating capacity, rigid demand without increment, and increasing inventory [2][9]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - Core contradiction: The fundamental situation has little change, with inventory accumulation not over yet. The price has limited downside space in the short term and may rise in the medium term [4]. - Bullish factors: Expectations of a Fed rate cut in September and approaching peak season [4]. - Bearish factors: Decreasing terminal factory orders, slightly lower downstream operating rates, and increasing social inventory [10]. - **Cast aluminum alloy** - Core contradiction: Scrap aluminum prices are high, providing cost support, but demand is weakening. The futures price follows Shanghai aluminum, and arbitrage operations can be considered [5]. - Bullish factors: High scrap aluminum prices and potential reduction in scrap aluminum imports [5]. - Bearish factors: Weakening demand expectations and serious over - capacity in the industry [7]. 3.4 Price and Spread Data - **Price data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy futures contracts, as well as LME aluminum prices, are provided [8][11]. - **Spread data**: The latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of spreads between different contracts of Shanghai aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, as well as the ratio of aluminum main contract to alumina main contract, are provided [15]. 3.5 Import Profit and Loss - The latest import profit and loss data for aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, along with their daily changes and daily change rates, are provided [24]. 3.6 Warehouse Receipt and Inventory Data - **Warehouse receipt data**: The latest warehouse receipt data for Shanghai aluminum, LME aluminum, and alumina, including regional breakdowns, are provided [30]. - **Inventory data**: Seasonal inventory data for aluminum ingots in three regions, Shanghai Futures Exchange aluminum warehouse receipts, LME aluminum inventory, and Shanghai Futures Exchange alumina warehouse receipts are provided [30][33][35].

Report Overview - The report focuses on the aluminum industry, covering alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and cast aluminum alloy, including price forecasts, risk management strategies, and analysis of core contradictions, influencing factors [1]. Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Alumina is expected to run at a low level in the short term, with a reference cost line of 2,800 - 2,850 yuan/ton, and can be shorted on rallies in the medium to long term [2]. - Electrolytic aluminum is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the short term and be bearish in the medium to long term [3]. - Cast aluminum alloy may oscillate strongly in the short term, and positive spreads can be considered due to the obvious back structure [3]. Summary by Category Price Forecast - Alumina: The latest price is 2,919 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 2,800 - 3,200 yuan/ton, a current volatility of 0.206, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.3798 [1]. - Electrolytic aluminum: The latest price is 20,355 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 19,000 - 20,300 yuan/ton, a current volatility of 0.0926, and a 3 - year historical percentile of 0.3783 [1]. - Aluminum alloy: The latest price is 19,700 yuan/ton, with a monthly price range forecast of 18,500 - 19,900 yuan/ton [1]. Risk Management Strategies | Product | Situation | Spot Exposure | Strategy | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio | Suggested Entry Range | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Alumina | High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline | Long | Short the main alumina futures contract | Main alumina futures contract | Sell | 75% | 3,000 | | Alumina | Low raw - material inventory, worried about price increase | Short | Long the main alumina futures contract | Main alumina futures contract | Buy | 75% | 2,700 | | Electrolytic aluminum | High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline | Long | Short the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract | Main Shanghai aluminum futures contract | Sell | 75% | 20,800 | | Electrolytic aluminum | Low raw - material inventory, worried about price increase | Short | Long the main Shanghai aluminum futures contract | Main Shanghai aluminum futures contract | Buy | 75% | 19,900 | | Aluminum alloy | High finished - product inventory, worried about price decline | Long | Short the main aluminum alloy futures contract | Main aluminum alloy futures contract | Sell | 50% | 19,200 | | Aluminum alloy | Low raw - material inventory, worried about price increase | Short | Long the main aluminum alloy futures contract | Main aluminum alloy futures contract | Buy | 50% | 19,600 | [1] Core Contradictions - **Alumina**: Guinea's Axis mine may remain shut down in the short term, which may lead to monthly supply shortages and push up ore prices. The game between production resumption and maintenance keeps the market oscillating. Overall, alumina is in a state of inventory accumulation, and prices are running at a low level [2]. - **Electrolytic aluminum**: Supply is close to the industry ceiling with little change. Demand is showing signs of weakening, but the current demand remains firm. The inventory increase may or may not be the inflection point, and the market is in a strong long - short game [3]. - **Cast aluminum alloy**: The raw material scrap aluminum is in short supply, making the cost support strong. Supply capacity is relatively surplus, and demand may slow down in the second half of the year [3]. Influencing Factors - **Alumina** - **Positive factors**: The Guinean government has revoked some mining licenses [2]. - **Negative factors**: New production capacity is continuously put into operation, and demand is rigid with no increase [2]. - **Electrolytic aluminum** - **Negative factors**: Terminal factory orders are in decline, and downstream开工率 has slightly decreased with signs of finished - product inventory accumulation. There is also a risk of profit - driven restarts of shut - down enterprises and a decline in spot prices [3][6]. - **Cast aluminum alloy** - **Positive factors**: Scrap aluminum is in short supply, and cost support is strong [3]. - **Negative factors**: Demand is expected to weaken, and the industry has over - capacity [3]. Market Data - **Prices and price differences**: The report provides the latest prices, daily changes, and daily change rates of various aluminum - related products, as well as price differences between different contracts [5][9][12]. - **Inventory**: It shows the latest inventory data of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy, including warehouse receipts and inventory in different regions [27]. - **Import and export profits and losses**: The report presents the latest import and export profit - loss data of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy [21].