铝策略月报 2026 年 3 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S | 氧化铝&电解铝&铝合金：累库施压，预期博弈 | | --- | | 总 | 结 | | --- | --- | | 1.供给：据SMM，预计3月国内冶金级氧化铝运行产能降至8624.8万吨，产量737.8万吨，环比增长11.5%，同比下滑2.3%。山东延续降负荷，山西、 | | | 河南、广西及贵州厂家检修结束后逐步复产；预计3月国内电解铝运行产能提升至4430万吨，产量387.5万吨，环比增长12.9%，同比增长4.3%，铝 | | | 水比回落至64.4%。Mt.Holly铝厂5万吨闲置产能预计4月复产至Q2末满产；冰岛铝厂4月底复产至7月底满产。国内及印尼项目爬产，电解铝日产 | | | 延续高位提升。 | | | 2.需求：春节稀释开工表现，2月铝下游加工企业平均开工率55.9%，环比1月下调4.25%。其中铝板带开工率上调0.1%至65.3%，铝箔开工率上调 | | | 0.73%至71.63%，铝型材开工率下调14.8%至32.83% ...

铝月报 2026/02/06 0755-23375135 wukjl@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 吴坤金（有色金属组） 情绪面加大市场波动，支撑较强 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 05 供给端 02 期现市场 月度评估及策略推荐 ◆ 供应端：根据SMM调研数据，截止2026年1月底，国内电解铝运行产能约4499.6万吨；1月电解铝产量同比增长2.7%、环比增加0.5%。预计2月 运行产能保持相对稳定，部分新建电解铝项目逐渐爬产。2026年1月国内铝水比例环比下降4.4%至72.1%，2月铝水比例预计继续下降。1月海 外电解铝产量同比增长接近2%。 ◆ 库存&现货：据MYSTEEL数据，截至2月5日，铝锭库存录得85.3万吨，较1月初增加约15万吨。 保税区库存录得4.4万吨，较1月初减少约1.0万 吨。铝棒库存合计27.7万吨，较1月初增加10.2万吨。 LME铝库存录得49.3万吨，较1月初减少1.6万吨。国内华东铝锭现货贴水缩窄，LME市 场Cash/3M升贴水先扬后抑。 ◆ 进出口：1月沪铝现货进口亏损震荡缩窄。2025年12月中国原铝 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with high-level fluctuations around the Spring Festival. In the first half of February, the aluminum price needs to digest short-term gains and deal with the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival; in the second half, the market focus will shift to the resumption of work progress after the festival. The overall trend is expected to be high-level fluctuations with a significantly higher central value [5][12]. - It is expected that in early February, the aluminum price may be under pressure due to factors such as the Fed's hawkish expectations, the lack of incremental holiday demand, and inventory accumulation. In the middle and late February, attention should be paid to changes in U.S. bond sentiment, the escalation of the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation, and the strike at Guinea's mines. It is expected to be in a sideways and volatile state. In March, with the start of restocking, peak-season demand, and tight supply, the market may operate strongly. During this period, the low level of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be around 22,000 - 22,500, and the high level around 25,500 - 26,500 [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with high-level fluctuations around the Spring Festival. In the first half of February, it needs to digest short-term gains and deal with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure; in the second half, the focus will be on the resumption of work after the festival [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a strategy of buying low and selling high and maintain an appropriate inventory [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait and see, while medium - term long positions should continue to be held [8]. - **This Week's Strategy**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: No specific content provided. Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Ore Market**: The supply of Guinea's bauxite is growing steadily, and the volume of goods shipped to China globally is increasing. The price of imported ore in February is expected to remain under pressure, and the imported ore market is gradually moving towards a state of oversupply [10]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina industry's supply surplus pattern continues. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the trading time before and after the festival is short. Coupled with the increasing scale of maintenance and production reduction in the alumina industry, the price of the alumina market in February is expected to remain stagnant [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are steadily ramping up production, and the daily output is continuously increasing. It is expected that the production will continue to rise in the short term. In 2026, the global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to be very small [10]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is currently about 1,600 yuan/ton. In 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. In 2026, China's aluminum profile exports are expected to show a complex situation of "structural growth, high - end breakthrough, but increasing external barriers" [10]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the social inventory of aluminum was about 800,000 tons, up about 0.5% from last week and about 61% higher than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods was 245,000 tons, up about 11% from last week and about 110% higher than the same period last year, at the highest level in the same period in the past 10 years. The LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly by about 2%, about 16% lower than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years [10]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,720 yuan/ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 90 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about 50 yuan/ton for the futures main contract. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 7,900 yuan/ton, at a historical high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: In the first half of February, the aluminum price needs to digest short - term gains and deal with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure; in the second half, the market focus will shift to the resumption of work after the festival. The overall trend is expected to be high - level fluctuations with a significantly higher central value [12]. - **Our View**: In early February, the aluminum price may be under pressure. In the middle and late February, it is expected to be in a sideways and volatile state. In March, the market may operate strongly [12]. - **Key Concerns**: Fluctuations in U.S. bonds, the evolution of the U.S. - Iran geopolitical situation, and the strike at Guinea's mines [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of imported bauxite ores have been accelerating their decline since January. The prices of alumina spot continued to be under pressure for adjustment, while the futures prices rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum price reached a new stage high this week but declined significantly at the end of the month due to macro and pre - holiday off - season factors [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of bauxite decreased slightly this week, but the arrival volume of Chinese bauxite in February is still expected to be significant. The alumina inventory continued to accumulate, at a high level in the past five years. The social inventory of aluminum and the inventory of aluminum rods continued to increase, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [15][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The domestic alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss and a theoretical profit for the futures main contract. The electrolytic aluminum production cost has decreased slightly, and the profit has increased. The electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical import loss [18]. - **Downstream开工概况**: The comprehensive aluminum processing start - up rate this week was 59.4%, down 1.5 percentage points from last week. It is expected that the start - up rate of each aluminum processing sector will be generally under pressure in February [23]. Futures - Spot Structure The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a forward market structure with higher prices in the distant future and lower prices in the near term. The pattern of "off - season demand + high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" is obvious. The market is optimistic about future supply and demand, but the spot end is still a drag [27]. Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week was about - 1,830 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at the mid - axis level in recent years, having a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [32][34]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds continued to increase slightly. Since June 2025, there has been an overall trend of more long positions and fewer short positions. Currently, overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long - position floating profit positions are relatively heavy, prone to high - level repeated market conditions [36]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position of the main force increased slightly this week. The reduction of long positions by institutions was greater than that of short positions. The net long position of funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises first increased and then decreased. Overall, the main funds are relatively bearish on the short - term market [39].

瑞达期货研究院 「2026.01.30」 铝类市场周报 情绪释放消费淡季，铝类震荡波动剧烈 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 业务咨询 添加客服 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面供给端，原料氧化铝低位运行，电解铝厂理论利润情况较好，加之其冶炼厂启停成本较高，生产开工情况仍 保持高位稳定，在运行产能小幅提振，但受限于行业上限的制约，其增量有限，电解铝供给量大体持稳。需求端，铝价受宏 观情绪以及消费淡季影响大幅波动，下游采买情绪逐渐谨慎，现货市场成交逐渐清淡，下游消费受长假以及淡季影响偏弱运 行，社会库存持续累库。整体来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给稳定、需求尚弱阶段。 观点总结：沪铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 3 行情回顾：沪铝周线冲高回落，周涨跌幅+1.11%，报24560元/吨。氧化铝先涨后跌，周涨跌+1.62%，报2768元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，几内亚雨季影响逐渐降低发运回升，土矿价格因为供给回升而有 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The aluminum market may oscillate. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply may increase slightly while demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to remain high and volatile due to positive macro expectations. For alumina, it is recommended to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position. For cast aluminum, it is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [4][5][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material alumina price is low, and smelting profits are good. Supply increases slightly, demand weakens in the off - season, and inventory accumulates slightly. The price remains high and volatile [4]. - **Alumina**: The impact of seasonal factors on imported ores is weakening, and port inventory is rising slightly. Supply may decrease under policy guidance, and demand is stable. It is recommended to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: High aluminum prices support the cost of cast aluminum. Production may decrease due to environmental policies and raw material supply issues. Demand weakens in the off - season, and it is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum (SHFE) was 22,335 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from December 19; LME aluminum was 2,956.5 US dollars/ton on December 24, up 1.76% from December 18. Alumina futures price rose 3.17%, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract rose 0.73%. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot rose 1.01%, and the spot price of alumina in some regions declined [10][14][32]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.53 on December 26, down 0.32 from December 19. The copper - aluminum futures spread increased by 5,320 yuan/ton, and the aluminum - zinc futures spread decreased by 115 yuan/ton [11][23]. - **Position and Inventory**: As of December 26, 2025, the SHFE aluminum position increased by 2.96%, and the net position of the top 20 increased [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of December 24, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.28%; as of December 19, SHFE inventory increased by 0.43%; as of December 25, domestic social inventory increased by 10.98% [35]. - **Raw Material Import**: In November 2025, the import of bauxite increased by 9.76% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year. The nine - port bauxite inventory was 2,619 million tons, up 3 million tons month - on - month [39]. - **Waste Aluminum**: The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong rose by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. In November 2025, the import of aluminum waste increased by 17.7% year - on - year, and the export decreased by 1.7% [45]. - **Alumina**: In November 2025, alumina production increased by 7.6% year - on - year. The import increased by 22.74% month - on - month and 134.12% year - on - year, and the export decreased [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.5% year - on - year. The import decreased by 2.79% year - on - year in November, and the global supply gap from January to October was - 108,700 tons [51][55]. - **Aluminum Products**: In November 2025, the production of aluminum products decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and both imports and exports decreased [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In November 2025, the built - in capacity of cast aluminum alloy increased by 15.96% year - on - year, and production increased by 7.12% [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November 2025, aluminum alloy production increased by 17% year - on - year. Imports decreased, and exports increased [65]. - **Real Estate**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, down 0.52 from the previous month. The new construction and completion areas decreased year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobile**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13%. In November 2025, automobile sales increased by 3.4% and production increased by 2.76% year - on - year [71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillatory movement of aluminum prices and the possible convergence of volatility, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices continue to rise, opening at $2877.5 per ton and currently at $2876.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.30% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $2886 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2872 per ton [1] Group 2 - On November 28, LME aluminum futures opened at $2830.0, peaked at $2879.5, and closed at $2865.0, reflecting a change of 1.18% [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.58, with an import loss of -1918.67 yuan per ton, improving from -2109.67 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of November 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had aluminum warehouse receipts totaling 66,935 tons, an increase of 26 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts stood at 485,575 tons, with canceled receipts at 53,475 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons, and total aluminum inventory at 539,050 tons, also down by 2,000 tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite is gradually becoming sufficient. The supply of the alumina industry remains high, but smelters may cut production passively due to profit issues, leading to a gradual reduction in domestic alumina supply. The demand for electrolytic aluminum is stable with some minor declines. Overall, the alumina market may see a slight decrease in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to take short - term long positions in the alumina main contract at low prices, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina raw materials is abundant, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is good. However, winter environmental protection restrictions and seasonal demand decline may lead to a slight decrease in domestic electrolytic aluminum production. The downstream is entering the consumption off - season, but the demand still shows some resilience due to year - end rush in the photovoltaic and automotive industries. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum market may see a slight decline in both supply and demand, and industrial inventory may accumulate. It is recommended to trade the Shanghai aluminum main contract in a range - bound manner with light positions, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which restricts production capacity, leading to a decrease in domestic cast aluminum supply. The industry is in a seasonal downturn, but the year - end sales rush in the automotive industry provides some support for demand. Overall, the cast aluminum market may see a decrease in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade the cast aluminum main contract in a range - bound manner with light positions, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 3. Summary by Directory **3.1 Week - ly Highlights Summary** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded with a weekly increase of 1.27%, closing at 21,610 yuan/ton. Alumina fluctuated at a low level with a weekly decrease of 0.22%, closing at 2,707 yuan/ton. The main contract of cast aluminum rebounded slightly with a weekly increase of 1.00%, closing at 20,800 yuan/ton [4][6]. **3.2 Futures and Spot Markets** - **Price Movements**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 21,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton (1.41%) from November 21. The closing price of LME aluminum on November 27, 2025, was 2,831.5 dollars/ton, up 25 dollars/ton (0.89%) from November 21. The alumina futures price was 2,658 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (1.77%) from November 21. The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 20,800 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton (1%) from November 21. The A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,430 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.33%) from November 21, with a spot discount of 60 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [9][13][29]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.58, down 0.26 from November 21. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 815 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from November 21. The copper - aluminum futures spread was 65,820 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton from November 21 [10][19]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum open interest was 596,294 lots, down 15,917 lots (2.6%) from November 21. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 6,558 lots from November 21 [14]. **3.3 Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 541,050 tons, down 3,025 tons (0.56%) from November 20. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory on November 21 was 123,716 tons, up 8,817 tons (7.67%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory on November 27 was 543,000 tons, down 23,000 tons (4.06%) from November 20. As of November 28, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 66,935 tons, down 2,348 tons (3.39%) from November 21. The LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts on November 27 totaled 485,575 tons, up 775 tons (0.16%) from November 20 [32]. - **Raw Material Imports and Inventory**: The import volume of bauxite in October 2025 was 13.7661 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.31%. From January to October, the cumulative import of bauxite was 170.9596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.05%. The inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 26.39 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons [35]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong remained unchanged at 16,550 yuan/ton. In October 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and debris was 158,360.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%, and the export volume was 32.46 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [41]. - **Alumina Production and Trade**: In October 2025, the alumina production was 7.865 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. From January to October, the cumulative alumina production was 76.344 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. In October, the alumina import volume was 189,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 215.64% and a year - on - year increase of 2927.91%, and the export volume was 180,000 tons [44]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production and Trade**: In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 248,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.24%. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum import was 2.2047 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.88%. In October, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 24,600 tons. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum export was 206,000 tons. In 2025 from January to August, the global aluminum market had a supply deficit of 105,400 tons. In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 37.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [47][51]. - **Aluminum Products**: In October 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. From January to October, the cumulative aluminum product production was 55.243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. In October, the aluminum product import volume was 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, and the export volume was 500,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [55]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly installed capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. The recycled aluminum alloy production was 608,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.35 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.83% [58]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. From January to October, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 15.76 million tons. In October, the aluminum alloy import volume was 76,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.77%, and the export volume was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.65%. From January to October, the aluminum alloy import volume was 841,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.24%, and the export volume was 228,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.81% [61]. - **Related Industries**: In October 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from the previous month and up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.87%, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31%. From January to October 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3.322 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.81%, and the production volume was 3.359 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.1% [64][67]. **3.4 Option Market Analysis** Given that the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and the volatility may converge in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [71].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the implementation of US aluminum tariffs in 2025, the import volumes of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and aluminum derivatives in the US decreased. The tariffs not only suppressed US demand but also led to the consumption of the country's aluminum inventory. The change in trade flow caused by the tariffs did not result in inventory accumulation outside the US due to the increased demand in non - US countries [2][4]. - Currently and for some time in the future, the rising spot premium caused by the consumption of primary aluminum inventory in the US makes exporting to the US more advantageous again. Primary aluminum from Canada and non - US countries and regions is expected to flow more to the US, reversing the trade flow from April to August. Considering the sustained consumption growth and limited new production capacity, the supply - demand relationship of primary aluminum outside the US will remain temporarily tight, and global aluminum prices will still be strongly supported [2][22]. 3) Summary According to Related Contents Impact of US Aluminum Tariffs on Domestic Trade - In 2025, the US gradually increased aluminum tariffs. On March 12, the tariff on imported aluminum products was raised to 25%, and on June 4, it was further increased to 50%. On August 15, the scope of aluminum tariffs was expanded [4]. - In August 2025, the US primary aluminum import volume was 74,000 tons, 83,000 tons less than the same period last year. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 1.221 million tons, 244,000 tons less than the same period last year. The import demand decreased significantly after the tariff implementation. For aluminum alloy, the import volume from January to August was 146,000 tons, with a slight increase month - on - month, and the cumulative import volume decreased only slightly compared with the same period in 2024 [4]. - For aluminum products, from April to August, the average monthly net import volume was 202,000 tons, 28,000 tons less than that from January to March and 56,000 tons less than the average monthly net import volume in 2024. For scrap aluminum, since it was not included in the tariff list, the US import demand was stimulated. From January to August, the net import volume increased by about 72,000 tons. Overall, from January to August, the reduction of imported aluminum element supply in the US was in the range of 400,000 - 500,000 tons, and the US increased the consumption of its own inventory [5]. Impact on International Trade and Market - After the implementation of US aluminum tariffs, Canada's exports to the US decreased significantly. In 2024, Canada exported about 1.828 million tons of primary aluminum to the US and only about 34,000 tons to non - US countries. From January to August 2025, Canada's total primary aluminum export volume decreased by 277,000 tons compared with the same period in 2024, with a decrease of about 432,000 tons in exports to the US and an increase of about 152,000 tons in exports to non - US countries [14]. - From early April to the end of August 2025, the overseas visible inventory of aluminum ingots decreased from about 1.14 million tons to about 1.06 million tons, indicating that the consumption in non - US countries increased and offset the decrease in US import demand [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum at low prices with a light position, and conduct oscillatory trading on the main contract of alumina with a light position [5]. - The fundamentals of alumina are currently in a state of oversupply with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of cast aluminum at low prices with a light position [8]. - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of raw material alumina is sufficient, and the smelting profit remains at a good level. The demand for downstream aluminum processing has increased due to the traditional consumption season and pre - holiday stockpiling [5]. - **Alumina**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments continues, and the supply of domestic bauxite is expected to be tight. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the demand is slightly increased but less than the supply growth, with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of raw material scrap aluminum is tight, limiting production. The pre - holiday stockpiling and the decline in cast aluminum quotes have slightly improved downstream demand, but consumption is still weak, and inventory has slightly increased [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from September 12; the closing price of LME Aluminum on September 18 was 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 0.97% from September 12. The alumina futures price was 2,915 yuan/ton, up 1.39% from September 12; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,355 yuan/ton, down 1.4% from September 12 [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.68, down 0.16 from September 12. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from September 12; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 59,115 yuan/ton, down 825 yuan/ton from September 12 [12][23]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of September 19, 2025, the position of Shanghai Aluminum was 525,078 lots, down 14.07% from September 12; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 1,255 lots from September 12 [18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 20,840 yuan/ton, down 1% from September 12, with a spot discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. The average spot price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy decreased [26][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 5.9%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 3.56%, and the domestic social inventory increased by 4.21%. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 0.7%, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 7.91% [36]. - **Bauxite**: The total import volume of bauxite increased year - on - year, and the port inventory slightly increased. In July 2025, the monthly import volume increased by 10.75% month - on - month and 34.22% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 33.65% year - on - year [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The quote of scrap aluminum decreased, and imports and exports increased. In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 50.9% year - on - year [45]. - **Alumina**: The production, imports, and exports of alumina increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 78.23% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume increased year - on - year, the production in August decreased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January to August increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 91.19% year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Aluminum Products**: The total production of aluminum products decreased year - on - year, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.2% year - on - year [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The production of cast aluminum alloy increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 11.77% year - on - year [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total production of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased. In August 2025, the production increased by 15.2% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume decreased by 28.39% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [65]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market declined slightly. In August 2025, the real estate development climate index decreased by 0.28 from last month. From January to August 2024, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.54% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 18.94% year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: Infrastructure investment showed a positive trend, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. From January to August 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year. In August 2025, automobile sales increased by 16.44% year - on - year, and production increased by 12.96% year - on - year [71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75].

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices experienced a slight decline, opening at $2681 per ton and currently at $2683 per ton, with a decrease of 0.24% [1] - On September 17, LME aluminum futures closed at $2689.5 per ton, down 0.83% from the previous day, with a trading range between $2679.0 and $2716.0 [2] - Alcoa predicts that the global aluminum market will remain relatively stable in the short to medium term, with China continuing to actively procure international aluminum sources while North America and Europe face supply shortages [2] Group 2 - By the end of 2025, the global aluminum market is expected to grow by approximately 7.3%, driven by simultaneous increases in demand for primary and recycled aluminum, which will encourage new capacity investments [2] - As of September 17, LME registered aluminum warrants totaled 375,025 tons, with canceled warrants at 108,750 tons, indicating no change in inventory levels [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warrants at 74,465 tons, a decrease of 1,269 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]