1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For alumina, the marginal improvement effect of supply - demand before the Spring Festival was diluted, with the impact being reflected after the festival. The raw material inventory of electrolytic aluminum plants was seasonally consumed, and the production cuts of northern large - scale plants led to a slight reduction in inventory, causing the spot price to stop falling and rebound. However, the accumulation of futures warehouse receipts and the resumption of some overhauled production capacity after the festival will still suppress the upside. It is expected that the inventory will continue to decline slightly, and the price of alumina will run weakly and stably. Attention should be paid to changes in warehouse receipts and production capacity progress. - For electrolytic aluminum, in March, the resumption of work at the processing end is advancing. However, due to the concentrated arrival of goods at ports after the festival and insufficient manpower at stations, the logistics turnover efficiency is temporarily limited. It is expected that the aluminum ingot inventory will continue to accumulate, with the peak possibly appearing in the middle and late March. The short - term supply - demand is still in a mismatch stage, with the resumption of work and inventory accumulation competing with each other, and the upside is restricted. It still awaits the confirmation or falsification of demand expectations. Key attention should be paid to the improvement point of warehousing efficiency and the inflection point of inventory reduction [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Price - In February, the alumina futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 2,744 yuan/ton as of the 27th, a monthly decline of 0.9%. The Shanghai aluminum futures also fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 23,835 yuan/ton within the month, a monthly decline of 3%. The aluminum alloy futures fluctuated weakly, with the main contract closing at 22,730 yuan/ton within the month, a monthly decline of 0.39% [5][6]. 3.2 Spread - In February, the alumina's discount narrowed from 139 yuan/ton to 112 yuan/ton, and the electrolytic aluminum's discount narrowed from 240 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [5]. 3.3 Supply - According to SMM, it is expected that the operating capacity of domestic metallurgical - grade alumina will drop to 8,624.8 million tons in March, with a production of 7.378 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.5% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.3%. It is expected that the operating capacity of domestic electrolytic aluminum will increase to 4,430 million tons in March, with a production of 3.875 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 12.9% and a year - on - year increase of 4.3%, and the molten aluminum ratio will drop to 64.4% [3][5]. 3.4 Demand - The Spring Festival diluted the start - up performance. In February, the average start - up rate of downstream aluminum processing enterprises was 55.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.25% compared with January. Among them, the start - up rate of aluminum plate and strip increased by 0.1% to 65.3%, the start - up rate of aluminum foil increased by 0.73% to 71.63%, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles decreased by 14.8% to 32.83%, the start - up rate of aluminum cables decreased by 4.1% to 56%, and the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 5.78% to 52.77% [3][5]. 3.5 Inventory - In terms of exchange inventory in February, the alumina inventory increased by 159,500 tons to 248,300 tons; the Shanghai aluminum inventory increased by 158,900 tons to 356,000 tons; the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 30,200 tons to 467,600 tons. In terms of social inventory, the aluminum ingot inventory increased by 414,000 tons to 1.157 million tons; the alumina port inventory decreased by 97,000 tons to 158,000 tons; the aluminum rod inventory increased by 92,000 tons to 398,000 tons [3][5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January 2026, aluminum prices soared significantly and weakened in early February. The decline in precious metals and the US stock AI sector were the main factors suppressing aluminum prices. Currently, the domestic downstream market is in the off - season, with the inventory of aluminum ingots and rods continuing to accumulate. However, downstream demand has improved month - on - month after the price decline. Overseas supply has potential disruptions, LME aluminum inventory remains relatively low, and the US aluminum spot premium is at a high level, so the support for aluminum prices is still strong. If the US stocks stop falling, aluminum prices are expected to stabilize and rebound. The operating range of the main SHFE aluminum contract is expected to be between 22,800 - 25,000 yuan/ton, and that of the LME aluminum 3M is expected to be between 2,900 - 3,200 US dollars/ton [11][12]. 3. Summaries According to the Directory 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Supply**: As of the end of January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.996 million tons. The output in January increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. The operating capacity in February is expected to remain relatively stable, and some new electrolytic aluminum projects will gradually increase production. In January, the domestic aluminum - water ratio decreased by 4.4% month - on - month to 72.1%, and it is expected to continue to decline in February. Overseas electrolytic aluminum output increased by nearly 2% year - on - year in January [12]. - **Inventory & Spot**: As of February 5th, the aluminum ingot inventory reached 853,000 tons, an increase of about 150,000 tons compared to early January. The bonded area inventory was 44,000 tons, a decrease of about 10,000 tons compared to early January. The total aluminum rod inventory was 277,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons compared to early January. The LME aluminum inventory was 493,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to early January. The spot discount of domestic East China aluminum ingots narrowed, and the LME market Cash/3M premium first rose and then fell [12]. - **Imports and Exports**: In January, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports narrowed oscillatingly. In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. In December, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [12]. - **Demand**: In January, the start - up rates of aluminum rods, aluminum profiles, aluminum alloys, and aluminum sheets were weak, while those of aluminum foils and aluminum rods were relatively good. The production and sales data of downstream construction, home appliances, and automobiles were weak, and the photovoltaic production schedule was better than the seasonal average [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: In January 2026, aluminum prices soared. The main SHFE aluminum contract reached a maximum of 26,185 yuan/ton, and the LME aluminum 3M reached a maximum of 3,356 US dollars/ton. In February, aluminum prices declined significantly. Currently, SHFE aluminum is trading around 23,500 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum is around 3,000 US dollars/ton [20]. - **Term Spread**: In January, aluminum prices rose and then fell, and the SHFE aluminum structure weakened oscillatingly [26]. - **Spot Basis**: The discounts in East China, South China, and Central China narrowed compared to the end of December 2025, with weak seasonal performance [29]. - **Regional Premium and Discount Spread**: In January, the spot performance in Central China and Guangdong was slightly stronger [34]. - **LME Premium and Discount**: The LME aluminum Cash/3M premium first rose and then fell, and the spot maintained a discount in early February [35]. 3.3 Profit and Inventory - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Profit**: In January, the primary aluminum smelting profit increased month - on - month and was at a historical high [42]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Inventory**: As of February 5th, the aluminum ingot inventory was 853,000 tons, an increase of about 150,000 tons compared to early January. The bonded area inventory was 44,000 tons, a decrease of about 10,000 tons compared to early January. The total aluminum rod inventory was 277,000 tons, an increase of 102,000 tons compared to early January. The sum of aluminum ingot and rod inventories increased by about 352,000 tons compared to early January. The LME aluminum inventory was 493,000 tons, a decrease of 16,000 tons compared to early January, still at a relatively low level in recent years [47][50][53]. - **LME Inventory Source**: In December 2025, the proportion of aluminum from India in the LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased to 39.5%, and the total inventory decreased [56]. 3.4 Cost Side - **Bauxite Price**: In January, the prices of domestic and overseas bauxite decreased oscillatingly [61]. - **Alumina Price**: In January, the prices of domestic and imported alumina declined [66]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Smelting Cost**: The anode price also declined, while the thermal coal price rebounded oscillatingly [69]. 3.5 Supply Side - **Alumina**: In January 2026, the monthly alumina production decreased by 1.8% month - on - month compared to December 2025 and by 2.6% year - on - year compared to January 2025. Routine maintenance at the beginning of the year led to a slight contraction in operating capacity. The operating capacity is expected to continue to decline in February [75]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of the end of January 2026, the domestic electrolytic aluminum operating capacity was about 44.996 million tons. The output in January increased by 2.7% year - on - year and 0.5% month - on - month. The operating capacity in February is expected to remain relatively stable, and some new electrolytic aluminum projects will gradually increase production. In December 2025, overseas electrolytic aluminum output was 2.581 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.6%, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, and an annual output increase of about 2.8%. The output in January continued to increase slightly [78]. - **Aluminum - Water Ratio**: In January, the aluminum rod processing fee remained at a relatively low level, and demand continued to be weak. In January 2026, the domestic aluminum - water ratio decreased by 4.4% month - on - month to 72.1%. The electrolytic aluminum ingot casting volume increased by 19.4% month - on - month and decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The aluminum - water ratio is expected to decrease by 7.7% in February under the background of the off - season of downstream demand [81]. - **Provincial Output of Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum output of each province increased month - on - month in December 2025 compared to November [86]. 3.6 Demand Side - **Overall Demand**: In December 2025, China's aluminum product output was 6.136 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.5%; the cumulative output from January to December was 67.504 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.5%. The aluminum ingot outbound volume in January was lower than the same period last year, showing a trend of being lower first and then higher month - on - month [90]. - **Downstream Start - up Rate**: In January 2026, China's aluminum rod output was 1.357 million tons, a month - on - month decrease and a slight year - on - year increase; the capacity utilization rate was 54.9%, and the start - up rate was 50.6%, slightly lower than the same period last year. In December 2025, the start - up rates of aluminum profiles and aluminum sheets and foils decreased month - on - month. In January 2026, the start - up rate of aluminum profiles was weak month - on - month, the start - up rate of aluminum sheets declined marginally, and the start - up situation of aluminum foils was slightly better. In December 2025, the start - up rates of primary aluminum - based aluminum alloy ingots and aluminum rods increased month - on - month. In January, the start - up rate of primary aluminum alloy ingots declined, and the start - up rate of aluminum rods increased month - on - month. In December 2025, the start - up rate of recycled aluminum alloy ingots decreased, and it continued to be weak in January [93][97][100][105]. - **Terminal Demand**: According to the production schedule reports of the three major white - goods released by Industry Online, in February 2026, the production schedule of household air conditioners was 11.49 million units, a 31.6% decrease compared to the actual output of the same period last year; the production schedule of refrigerators was 6 million units, a 17% decrease; the production schedule of washing machines was 6.3 million units, a 3.2% decrease. The high - frequency data of real estate and automobile sales in January continued to be weak, and the production schedule of photovoltaic modules declined month - on - month, slightly better than the normal seasonal performance [109]. 3.7 Imports and Exports - **Primary Aluminum Imports**: In December 2025, China's primary aluminum imports were 189,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 29.5% and a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. The cumulative imports from January to December were 2.538 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.8%. In January, the loss of domestic aluminum spot imports narrowed oscillatingly. In December 2025, the aluminum ingot imports mainly came from Russia, Indonesia, India, Australia, etc., and the import volume from Russia increased to 76% [114][115][118]. - **Exports of Aluminum Products**: In December 2025, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products was 545,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.4%; the cumulative export from January to December was 6.134 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 8.0% [121]. - **Recycled Aluminum Imports**: In December 2025, the recycled aluminum imports were 194,000 tons, an increase of 31,000 tons month - on - month; the cumulative imports from January to December were 2.015 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.1% [121]. - **Bauxite and Alumina Imports and Exports**: In December 2025, China's bauxite imports were 14.673 million tons, with the imported ore accounting for 72.5%. The cumulative bauxite imports from January to December were 200.532 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 26.3%. In December 2025, China's alumina exports were 206,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.3%. The cumulative alumina exports from January to December were 2.548 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.7% [124].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with high-level fluctuations around the Spring Festival. In the first half of February, the aluminum price needs to digest short-term gains and deal with the seasonal inventory accumulation pressure during the Spring Festival; in the second half, the market focus will shift to the resumption of work progress after the festival. The overall trend is expected to be high-level fluctuations with a significantly higher central value [5][12]. - It is expected that in early February, the aluminum price may be under pressure due to factors such as the Fed's hawkish expectations, the lack of incremental holiday demand, and inventory accumulation. In the middle and late February, attention should be paid to changes in U.S. bond sentiment, the escalation of the U.S.-Iran geopolitical situation, and the strike at Guinea's mines. It is expected to be in a sideways and volatile state. In March, with the start of restocking, peak-season demand, and tight supply, the market may operate strongly. During this period, the low level of electrolytic aluminum is expected to be around 22,000 - 22,500, and the high level around 25,500 - 26,500 [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Mid - term Market Analysis - **Trend Judgment**: The aluminum price is expected to be in a strong and volatile state, with high-level fluctuations around the Spring Festival. In the first half of February, it needs to digest short-term gains and deal with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure; in the second half, the focus will be on the resumption of work after the festival [5]. - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a strategy of buying low and selling high and maintain an appropriate inventory [5]. Variety Trading Strategy - **Short - term Strategy**: Short - term long positions are advised to exit and wait and see, while medium - term long positions should continue to be held [8]. - **This Week's Strategy**: Hold an appropriate amount of spot inventory [8]. - **Hedging Suggestion for Spot Enterprises**: No specific content provided. Overall Viewpoint - **Aluminum Ore Market**: The supply of Guinea's bauxite is growing steadily, and the volume of goods shipped to China globally is increasing. The price of imported ore in February is expected to remain under pressure, and the imported ore market is gradually moving towards a state of oversupply [10]. - **Alumina Market**: The alumina industry's supply surplus pattern continues. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday in February, the trading time before and after the festival is short. Coupled with the increasing scale of maintenance and production reduction in the alumina industry, the price of the alumina market in February is expected to remain stagnant [10]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: The domestic and Indonesian electrolytic aluminum projects are steadily ramping up production, and the daily output is continuously increasing. It is expected that the production will continue to rise in the short term. In 2026, the global aluminum supply elasticity is expected to be very small [10]. - **Import and Export**: The theoretical loss of electrolytic aluminum imports is currently about 1,600 yuan/ton. In 2025, China's exports of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. In 2026, China's aluminum profile exports are expected to show a complex situation of "structural growth, high - end breakthrough, but increasing external barriers" [10]. - **Inventory**: As of January 30, the social inventory of aluminum was about 800,000 tons, up about 0.5% from last week and about 61% higher than the same period last year. The inventory of aluminum rods was 245,000 tons, up about 11% from last week and about 110% higher than the same period last year, at the highest level in the same period in the past 10 years. The LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly by about 2%, about 16% lower than the same period last year, at a low level in recent years [10]. - **Profit**: The average full - cost of the Chinese alumina industry in the past month was about 2,720 yuan/ton, with a theoretical spot loss of about 90 yuan/ton and a theoretical profit of about 50 yuan/ton for the futures main contract. The average production cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,600 yuan/ton, with a theoretical profit of about 7,900 yuan/ton, at a historical high level [12]. - **Market Expectation**: In the first half of February, the aluminum price needs to digest short - term gains and deal with seasonal inventory accumulation pressure; in the second half, the market focus will shift to the resumption of work after the festival. The overall trend is expected to be high - level fluctuations with a significantly higher central value [12]. - **Our View**: In early February, the aluminum price may be under pressure. In the middle and late February, it is expected to be in a sideways and volatile state. In March, the market may operate strongly [12]. - **Key Concerns**: Fluctuations in U.S. bonds, the evolution of the U.S. - Iran geopolitical situation, and the strike at Guinea's mines [12]. Important Industry Link Price Changes - The prices of imported bauxite ores have been accelerating their decline since January. The prices of alumina spot continued to be under pressure for adjustment, while the futures prices rebounded. The electrolytic aluminum price reached a new stage high this week but declined significantly at the end of the month due to macro and pre - holiday off - season factors [13]. Important Industry Link Inventory Changes - The port inventory of bauxite decreased slightly this week, but the arrival volume of Chinese bauxite in February is still expected to be significant. The alumina inventory continued to accumulate, at a high level in the past five years. The social inventory of aluminum and the inventory of aluminum rods continued to increase, and the LME aluminum inventory continued to decline slightly [15][16]. Supply and Demand Situation - **Profit**: The domestic alumina industry has a theoretical spot loss and a theoretical profit for the futures main contract. The electrolytic aluminum production cost has decreased slightly, and the profit has increased. The electrolytic aluminum has a theoretical import loss [18]. - **Downstream开工概况**: The comprehensive aluminum processing start - up rate this week was 59.4%, down 1.5 percentage points from last week. It is expected that the start - up rate of each aluminum processing sector will be generally under pressure in February [23]. Futures - Spot Structure The current Shanghai aluminum futures show a forward market structure with higher prices in the distant future and lower prices in the near term. The pattern of "off - season demand + high aluminum prices suppressing consumption" is obvious. The market is optimistic about future supply and demand, but the spot end is still a drag [27]. Spread Structure The spread between aluminum ingots and ADC12 this week was about - 1,830 yuan/ton. The current spread between primary aluminum and alloys is at the mid - axis level in recent years, having a neutral impact on electrolytic aluminum [32][34]. Market Capital Situation - **LME Aluminum**: The latest net long position of funds continued to increase slightly. Since June 2025, there has been an overall trend of more long positions and fewer short positions. Currently, overseas funds are still dominated by long positions, but the long - position floating profit positions are relatively heavy, prone to high - level repeated market conditions [36]. - **SHFE Electrolytic Aluminum**: The net short position of the main force increased slightly this week. The reduction of long positions by institutions was greater than that of short positions. The net long position of funds with a background of mid - and downstream enterprises first increased and then decreased. Overall, the main funds are relatively bearish on the short - term market [39].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The fundamentals show that the supply is stable with a slight increase in operating capacity, but limited by the industry ceiling. The demand is weak due to the holiday and off - season, leading to continuous inventory accumulation. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [5]. 2.2 Alumina - The supply is expected to slightly decrease due to the holiday and maintenance plans, but the inventory is relatively high. The demand remains stable as electrolytic aluminum plants maintain high - level production. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading on the main contract of Alumina, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 2.3 Cast Aluminum - The supply is relatively abundant with slow inventory reduction, and the demand is weak due to the off - season and cautious purchasing by downstream enterprises. The cost of scrap aluminum supports the price of cast aluminum. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillatory trading on the main contract of Cast Aluminum, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [8]. 2.4 Option Market - Considering that the volatility of aluminum prices may expand in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [68]. 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - Supply side: Alumina prices are low, electrolytic aluminum plants have good theoretical profits, and production starts remain high with a slight increase in operating capacity, but limited by the industry ceiling. Demand side: Aluminum prices fluctuate significantly due to macro sentiment and the off - season, downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, spot market transactions are light, and social inventory accumulates. Shanghai Aluminum's main contract is recommended for light - position oscillatory trading [5]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Raw material side: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments is decreasing, and the support of bauxite prices for alumina is slightly weakened. Supply side: Due to the holiday and maintenance plans, domestic alumina production capacity and output are expected to decrease, but inventory is relatively high. Demand side: The demand for alumina from electrolytic aluminum plants remains stable. Alumina's main contract is recommended for light - position oscillatory trading [6]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum - Raw material side: Aluminum prices have corrected after reaching a new high, scrap aluminum supply is tight, and the cost - quality logic of cast aluminum is still strong. Supply side: High raw material prices and supply shortages lead to reduced production by some enterprises, and inventory reduction is slow. Demand side: Downstream die - casting enterprises purchase cautiously, and actual orders are weak. Cast Aluminum's main contract is recommended for light - position oscillatory trading [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market 3.2.1 Price Trends - As of January 30, 2026, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 24,670 yuan/ton, up 1.82% from January 23; the closing price of LME Aluminum on January 29 was 3,218.5 US dollars/ton, up 2.75% from January 23. The alumina futures price was 2,595 yuan/ton, up 0.54% from January 23; the closing price of the main cast - aluminum contract was 22,820 yuan/ton, down 0.76% from January 23 [11][14]. 3.2.2 Position Changes - As of January 30, 2026, the trading volume of Shanghai Aluminum was 742,284 lots, an increase of 2.4% from January 23. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, an increase of 68,582 lots from January 23 [17]. 3.2.3 Price Spreads - As of January 30, 2026, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,275 yuan/ton, an increase of 980 yuan/ton from January 23; the copper - aluminum futures price spread was 79,120 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,070 yuan/ton from January 23 [20]. 3.2.4 Spot Market - As of January 30, 2026, the average alumina price in Henan and Shanxi decreased by 0.57% and 0.19% respectively, and that in Guiyang decreased by 0.19%. The national average price of cast - aluminum alloy (ADC12) increased by 1.46%. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingots increased by 2.11%, and the spot discount decreased by 70 yuan/ton [24][27]. 3.3 Industry Situation 3.3.1 Inventory - As of January 29, 2026, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory decreased by 2.27%, SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 6.01%, and domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory increased by 3.78%. SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts increased by 2.77%, and LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts increased by 8.04% [32]. 3.3.2 Bauxite - As of the latest data, the inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports decreased by 3.7 million tons month - on - month. In December 2025, the monthly import volume of bauxite decreased by 2.85% month - on - month and 2.02% year - on - year, while the cumulative import volume from January to December increased by 26.31% year - on - year [35]. 3.3.3 Scrap Aluminum - As of this week, the price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong increased by 400 yuan/ton week - on - week. In December 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 22.8% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 4.4% year - on - year [39]. 3.3.4 Alumina - In December 2025, the output of alumina increased by 6.7% year - on - year, and the cumulative output from January to December increased by 8% year - on - year. The import volume decreased by 1.99% month - on - month and increased by 1389.71% year - on - year, and the export volume increased [44]. 3.3.5 Electrolytic Aluminum - In December 2025, the import volume of electrolytic aluminum increased by 17.22% year - on - year, and the cumulative import volume from January to December increased by 18.82% year - on - year. The output in December increased by 3% year - on - year, and the cumulative output from January to December increased by 2.4% year - on - year [47][50]. 3.3.6 Aluminum Products - In December 2025, the output of aluminum products decreased by 0% year - on - year, and the cumulative output from January to December decreased by 0.2% year - on - year. The import volume increased by 7.1% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 7.7% year - on - year [54]. 3.3.7 Cast Aluminum Alloy - In December 2025, the monthly built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy decreased by 0% month - on - month and increased by 15.96% year - on - year. The output decreased by 2.53% year - on - year [57]. 3.3.8 Aluminum Alloy - In December 2025, the output of aluminum alloy increased by 13.7% year - on - year, the import volume decreased by 11.81% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 20.03% year - on - year [60]. 3.3.9 Real Estate Market - In December 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.45, a decrease of 0.44 from the previous month and 1.1 from the same period last year. From January to December 2024, the new housing construction area decreased by 20.47% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 23.9% year - on - year [63]. 3.3.10 Infrastructure Investment and Automobile Industry - From January to December 2024, infrastructure investment decreased by 1.48% year - on - year. In December 2025, China's automobile sales decreased by 6.2% year - on - year, and production decreased by 2.09% year - on - year [66]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given that the future volatility of aluminum prices may expand, a double - buying strategy can be considered to go long on volatility [68].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document. 2. Core Views of the Report - The aluminum market may oscillate. For electrolytic aluminum, the supply may increase slightly while demand is in the off - season, and the price is expected to remain high and volatile due to positive macro expectations. For alumina, it is recommended to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position. For cast aluminum, it is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [4][5][7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The raw material alumina price is low, and smelting profits are good. Supply increases slightly, demand weakens in the off - season, and inventory accumulates slightly. The price remains high and volatile [4]. - **Alumina**: The impact of seasonal factors on imported ores is weakening, and port inventory is rising slightly. Supply may decrease under policy guidance, and demand is stable. It is recommended to go long on the main contract at low prices with a light position [5]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: High aluminum prices support the cost of cast aluminum. Production may decrease due to environmental policies and raw material supply issues. Demand weakens in the off - season, and it is recommended to trade with a light position in a volatile manner [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Price Movement**: As of December 26, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum (SHFE) was 22,335 yuan/ton, up 0.97% from December 19; LME aluminum was 2,956.5 US dollars/ton on December 24, up 1.76% from December 18. Alumina futures price rose 3.17%, and the cast aluminum alloy main contract rose 0.73%. The spot price of A00 aluminum ingot rose 1.01%, and the spot price of alumina in some regions declined [10][14][32]. - **Ratio and Spread**: The SHFE - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.53 on December 26, down 0.32 from December 19. The copper - aluminum futures spread increased by 5,320 yuan/ton, and the aluminum - zinc futures spread decreased by 115 yuan/ton [11][23]. - **Position and Inventory**: As of December 26, 2025, the SHFE aluminum position increased by 2.96%, and the net position of the top 20 increased [19]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of December 24, LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 0.28%; as of December 19, SHFE inventory increased by 0.43%; as of December 25, domestic social inventory increased by 10.98% [35]. - **Raw Material Import**: In November 2025, the import of bauxite increased by 9.76% month - on - month and 22.5% year - on - year. The nine - port bauxite inventory was 2,619 million tons, up 3 million tons month - on - month [39]. - **Waste Aluminum**: The price of scrap aluminum in Shandong rose by 200 yuan/ton week - on - week. In November 2025, the import of aluminum waste increased by 17.7% year - on - year, and the export decreased by 1.7% [45]. - **Alumina**: In November 2025, alumina production increased by 7.6% year - on - year. The import increased by 22.74% month - on - month and 134.12% year - on - year, and the export decreased [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In November 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 2.5% year - on - year. The import decreased by 2.79% year - on - year in November, and the global supply gap from January to October was - 108,700 tons [51][55]. - **Aluminum Products**: In November 2025, the production of aluminum products decreased by 0.4% year - on - year, and both imports and exports decreased [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In November 2025, the built - in capacity of cast aluminum alloy increased by 15.96% year - on - year, and production increased by 7.12% [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In November 2025, aluminum alloy production increased by 17% year - on - year. Imports decreased, and exports increased [65]. - **Real Estate**: In November 2025, the real estate development climate index was 91.9, down 0.52 from the previous month. The new construction and completion areas decreased year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobile**: From January to November 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 0.13%. In November 2025, automobile sales increased by 3.4% and production increased by 2.76% year - on - year [71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis - Given the expected oscillatory movement of aluminum prices and the possible convergence of volatility, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short volatility [75].

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices continue to rise, opening at $2877.5 per ton and currently at $2876.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.30% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $2886 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2872 per ton [1] Group 2 - On November 28, LME aluminum futures opened at $2830.0, peaked at $2879.5, and closed at $2865.0, reflecting a change of 1.18% [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.58, with an import loss of -1918.67 yuan per ton, improving from -2109.67 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of November 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had aluminum warehouse receipts totaling 66,935 tons, an increase of 26 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts stood at 485,575 tons, with canceled receipts at 53,475 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons, and total aluminum inventory at 539,050 tons, also down by 2,000 tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite is gradually becoming sufficient. The supply of the alumina industry remains high, but smelters may cut production passively due to profit issues, leading to a gradual reduction in domestic alumina supply. The demand for electrolytic aluminum is stable with some minor declines. Overall, the alumina market may see a slight decrease in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to take short - term long positions in the alumina main contract at low prices, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina raw materials is abundant, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is good. However, winter environmental protection restrictions and seasonal demand decline may lead to a slight decrease in domestic electrolytic aluminum production. The downstream is entering the consumption off - season, but the demand still shows some resilience due to year - end rush in the photovoltaic and automotive industries. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum market may see a slight decline in both supply and demand, and industrial inventory may accumulate. It is recommended to trade the Shanghai aluminum main contract in a range - bound manner with light positions, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which restricts production capacity, leading to a decrease in domestic cast aluminum supply. The industry is in a seasonal downturn, but the year - end sales rush in the automotive industry provides some support for demand. Overall, the cast aluminum market may see a decrease in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade the cast aluminum main contract in a range - bound manner with light positions, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 3. Summary by Directory **3.1 Week - ly Highlights Summary** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded with a weekly increase of 1.27%, closing at 21,610 yuan/ton. Alumina fluctuated at a low level with a weekly decrease of 0.22%, closing at 2,707 yuan/ton. The main contract of cast aluminum rebounded slightly with a weekly increase of 1.00%, closing at 20,800 yuan/ton [4][6]. **3.2 Futures and Spot Markets** - **Price Movements**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 21,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton (1.41%) from November 21. The closing price of LME aluminum on November 27, 2025, was 2,831.5 dollars/ton, up 25 dollars/ton (0.89%) from November 21. The alumina futures price was 2,658 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (1.77%) from November 21. The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 20,800 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton (1%) from November 21. The A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,430 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.33%) from November 21, with a spot discount of 60 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [9][13][29]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.58, down 0.26 from November 21. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 815 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from November 21. The copper - aluminum futures spread was 65,820 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton from November 21 [10][19]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum open interest was 596,294 lots, down 15,917 lots (2.6%) from November 21. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 6,558 lots from November 21 [14]. **3.3 Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 541,050 tons, down 3,025 tons (0.56%) from November 20. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory on November 21 was 123,716 tons, up 8,817 tons (7.67%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory on November 27 was 543,000 tons, down 23,000 tons (4.06%) from November 20. As of November 28, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 66,935 tons, down 2,348 tons (3.39%) from November 21. The LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts on November 27 totaled 485,575 tons, up 775 tons (0.16%) from November 20 [32]. - **Raw Material Imports and Inventory**: The import volume of bauxite in October 2025 was 13.7661 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.31%. From January to October, the cumulative import of bauxite was 170.9596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.05%. The inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 26.39 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons [35]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong remained unchanged at 16,550 yuan/ton. In October 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and debris was 158,360.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%, and the export volume was 32.46 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [41]. - **Alumina Production and Trade**: In October 2025, the alumina production was 7.865 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. From January to October, the cumulative alumina production was 76.344 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. In October, the alumina import volume was 189,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 215.64% and a year - on - year increase of 2927.91%, and the export volume was 180,000 tons [44]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production and Trade**: In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 248,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.24%. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum import was 2.2047 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.88%. In October, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 24,600 tons. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum export was 206,000 tons. In 2025 from January to August, the global aluminum market had a supply deficit of 105,400 tons. In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 37.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [47][51]. - **Aluminum Products**: In October 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. From January to October, the cumulative aluminum product production was 55.243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. In October, the aluminum product import volume was 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, and the export volume was 500,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [55]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly installed capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. The recycled aluminum alloy production was 608,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.35 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.83% [58]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. From January to October, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 15.76 million tons. In October, the aluminum alloy import volume was 76,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.77%, and the export volume was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.65%. From January to October, the aluminum alloy import volume was 841,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.24%, and the export volume was 228,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.81% [61]. - **Related Industries**: In October 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from the previous month and up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.87%, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31%. From January to October 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3.322 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.81%, and the production volume was 3.359 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.1% [64][67]. **3.4 Option Market Analysis** Given that the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and the volatility may converge in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [71].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the industry investment rating. 2) Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the implementation of US aluminum tariffs in 2025, the import volumes of primary aluminum, aluminum products, and aluminum derivatives in the US decreased. The tariffs not only suppressed US demand but also led to the consumption of the country's aluminum inventory. The change in trade flow caused by the tariffs did not result in inventory accumulation outside the US due to the increased demand in non - US countries [2][4]. - Currently and for some time in the future, the rising spot premium caused by the consumption of primary aluminum inventory in the US makes exporting to the US more advantageous again. Primary aluminum from Canada and non - US countries and regions is expected to flow more to the US, reversing the trade flow from April to August. Considering the sustained consumption growth and limited new production capacity, the supply - demand relationship of primary aluminum outside the US will remain temporarily tight, and global aluminum prices will still be strongly supported [2][22]. 3) Summary According to Related Contents Impact of US Aluminum Tariffs on Domestic Trade - In 2025, the US gradually increased aluminum tariffs. On March 12, the tariff on imported aluminum products was raised to 25%, and on June 4, it was further increased to 50%. On August 15, the scope of aluminum tariffs was expanded [4]. - In August 2025, the US primary aluminum import volume was 74,000 tons, 83,000 tons less than the same period last year. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 1.221 million tons, 244,000 tons less than the same period last year. The import demand decreased significantly after the tariff implementation. For aluminum alloy, the import volume from January to August was 146,000 tons, with a slight increase month - on - month, and the cumulative import volume decreased only slightly compared with the same period in 2024 [4]. - For aluminum products, from April to August, the average monthly net import volume was 202,000 tons, 28,000 tons less than that from January to March and 56,000 tons less than the average monthly net import volume in 2024. For scrap aluminum, since it was not included in the tariff list, the US import demand was stimulated. From January to August, the net import volume increased by about 72,000 tons. Overall, from January to August, the reduction of imported aluminum element supply in the US was in the range of 400,000 - 500,000 tons, and the US increased the consumption of its own inventory [5]. Impact on International Trade and Market - After the implementation of US aluminum tariffs, Canada's exports to the US decreased significantly. In 2024, Canada exported about 1.828 million tons of primary aluminum to the US and only about 34,000 tons to non - US countries. From January to August 2025, Canada's total primary aluminum export volume decreased by 277,000 tons compared with the same period in 2024, with a decrease of about 432,000 tons in exports to the US and an increase of about 152,000 tons in exports to non - US countries [14]. - From early April to the end of August 2025, the overseas visible inventory of aluminum ingots decreased from about 1.14 million tons to about 1.06 million tons, indicating that the consumption in non - US countries increased and offset the decrease in US import demand [16].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum at low prices with a light position, and conduct oscillatory trading on the main contract of alumina with a light position [5]. - The fundamentals of alumina are currently in a state of oversupply with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of cast aluminum at low prices with a light position [8]. - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of raw material alumina is sufficient, and the smelting profit remains at a good level. The demand for downstream aluminum processing has increased due to the traditional consumption season and pre - holiday stockpiling [5]. - **Alumina**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments continues, and the supply of domestic bauxite is expected to be tight. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the demand is slightly increased but less than the supply growth, with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of raw material scrap aluminum is tight, limiting production. The pre - holiday stockpiling and the decline in cast aluminum quotes have slightly improved downstream demand, but consumption is still weak, and inventory has slightly increased [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from September 12; the closing price of LME Aluminum on September 18 was 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 0.97% from September 12. The alumina futures price was 2,915 yuan/ton, up 1.39% from September 12; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,355 yuan/ton, down 1.4% from September 12 [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.68, down 0.16 from September 12. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from September 12; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 59,115 yuan/ton, down 825 yuan/ton from September 12 [12][23]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of September 19, 2025, the position of Shanghai Aluminum was 525,078 lots, down 14.07% from September 12; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 1,255 lots from September 12 [18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 20,840 yuan/ton, down 1% from September 12, with a spot discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. The average spot price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy decreased [26][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 5.9%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 3.56%, and the domestic social inventory increased by 4.21%. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 0.7%, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 7.91% [36]. - **Bauxite**: The total import volume of bauxite increased year - on - year, and the port inventory slightly increased. In July 2025, the monthly import volume increased by 10.75% month - on - month and 34.22% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 33.65% year - on - year [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The quote of scrap aluminum decreased, and imports and exports increased. In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 50.9% year - on - year [45]. - **Alumina**: The production, imports, and exports of alumina increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 78.23% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume increased year - on - year, the production in August decreased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January to August increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 91.19% year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Aluminum Products**: The total production of aluminum products decreased year - on - year, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.2% year - on - year [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The production of cast aluminum alloy increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 11.77% year - on - year [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total production of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased. In August 2025, the production increased by 15.2% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume decreased by 28.39% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [65]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market declined slightly. In August 2025, the real estate development climate index decreased by 0.28 from last month. From January to August 2024, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.54% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 18.94% year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: Infrastructure investment showed a positive trend, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. From January to August 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year. In August 2025, automobile sales increased by 16.44% year - on - year, and production increased by 12.96% year - on - year [71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75].

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices experienced a slight decline, opening at $2681 per ton and currently at $2683 per ton, with a decrease of 0.24% [1] - On September 17, LME aluminum futures closed at $2689.5 per ton, down 0.83% from the previous day, with a trading range between $2679.0 and $2716.0 [2] - Alcoa predicts that the global aluminum market will remain relatively stable in the short to medium term, with China continuing to actively procure international aluminum sources while North America and Europe face supply shortages [2] Group 2 - By the end of 2025, the global aluminum market is expected to grow by approximately 7.3%, driven by simultaneous increases in demand for primary and recycled aluminum, which will encourage new capacity investments [2] - As of September 17, LME registered aluminum warrants totaled 375,025 tons, with canceled warrants at 108,750 tons, indicating no change in inventory levels [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warrants at 74,465 tons, a decrease of 1,269 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]