News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to potential tariff reductions on imports from Canada, leading to a significant drop in U.S. spot aluminum premiums by over 7% [1]. Group 1: Market Data - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global primary aluminum production is projected to reach 6.0912 million tons and consumption at 5.8649 million tons by April 2025, resulting in a surplus of 226,300 tons [1]. - From January to April 2025, global primary aluminum production totaled 24.2523 million tons, while consumption was 23.2412 million tons, indicating a surplus of 1.0111 million tons [1]. - China's imports of aluminum ore and concentrates in May 2025 reached 17.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, with total imports from January to May at 85.18 million tons, up 33.1% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures notes that while aluminum inventories are at historical lows, supporting prices, domestic demand is entering a slow season with reduced orders, leading to short-term price fluctuations with medium-term downside risks [2]. - Hualian Futures highlights that recent improvements in the supply of alumina have kept prices weak, while the cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline. Despite stable supply, the downstream aluminum processing sector is experiencing a pronounced off-season, with both domestic and export orders declining [2]. - The overall supply pressure remains manageable due to high smelting operating rates, and low inventories suggest a continued strong performance in the near term. The recommendation is to maintain a rolling long position with a reference support level of 20,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and steadily increasing demand, and the electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. For both, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 19,595 yuan/ton, and the main contract of alumina futures decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 2,786 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum注销仓单 decreased by 2,175 tons to 190,700 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,075 tons to 440,150 tons [2] - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 19,680 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous remained unchanged at 2,840 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Upstream Situation**: Alumina production decreased by 4.92 tons to 750.75 tons, and the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 64.53 tons to 647.02 tons. The export of alumina increased by 1.00 tons to 21.00 tons, and the import increased by 0.58 tons to 4.17 tons [2] - **Industry Situation**: The import of primary aluminum increased by 38,792.39 tons to 200,200.39 tons, and the export decreased by 4,973.02 tons to 3,426.54 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained unchanged at 4,517.20 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate increased by 0.13% to 97.50% [2] - **Downstream and Application**: The output of aluminum products increased by 17.91 tons to 610.66 tons, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased by 13.60 tons to 50.60 tons. The output of automobiles increased by 5.10 million to 349.86 million, and the National Housing Prosperity Index increased by 0.45 to 93.80 [2] - **Option Situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.01% to 18.30%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.02% to 14.02%. The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0193% to 12.86%, and the option call - put ratio increased by 0.0069 to 0.85 [2] 2. Industry News - China's foreign trade had a stable start in the first quarter of 2025, with the total value of goods trade imports and exports reaching 10.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Hainan plans to allocate over 10 billion yuan from 2025 - 2027 to boost consumption. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation has substantially ended [2] - OPEC lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.1% to 3%, and for 2026 from 3.2% to 3.1%. Goldman Sachs expects a surplus of 580,000 tons in the global aluminum market in 2025 [2] 3. Alumina Viewpoint - The main alumina contract oscillates weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The raw material supply pressure is gradually released, the supply may slightly converge, and the demand is steadily increasing. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [3] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - The main Shanghai Aluminum contract oscillates weakly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply and demand are both increasing, but there are risks in export trade. The option market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [4]