Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum at low prices with a light position, and conduct oscillatory trading on the main contract of alumina with a light position [5]. - The fundamentals of alumina are currently in a state of oversupply with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of cast aluminum at low prices with a light position [8]. - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of raw material alumina is sufficient, and the smelting profit remains at a good level. The demand for downstream aluminum processing has increased due to the traditional consumption season and pre - holiday stockpiling [5]. - **Alumina**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments continues, and the supply of domestic bauxite is expected to be tight. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the demand is slightly increased but less than the supply growth, with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of raw material scrap aluminum is tight, limiting production. The pre - holiday stockpiling and the decline in cast aluminum quotes have slightly improved downstream demand, but consumption is still weak, and inventory has slightly increased [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from September 12; the closing price of LME Aluminum on September 18 was 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 0.97% from September 12. The alumina futures price was 2,915 yuan/ton, up 1.39% from September 12; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,355 yuan/ton, down 1.4% from September 12 [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.68, down 0.16 from September 12. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from September 12; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 59,115 yuan/ton, down 825 yuan/ton from September 12 [12][23]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of September 19, 2025, the position of Shanghai Aluminum was 525,078 lots, down 14.07% from September 12; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 1,255 lots from September 12 [18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 20,840 yuan/ton, down 1% from September 12, with a spot discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. The average spot price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy decreased [26][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 5.9%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 3.56%, and the domestic social inventory increased by 4.21%. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 0.7%, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 7.91% [36]. - **Bauxite**: The total import volume of bauxite increased year - on - year, and the port inventory slightly increased. In July 2025, the monthly import volume increased by 10.75% month - on - month and 34.22% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 33.65% year - on - year [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The quote of scrap aluminum decreased, and imports and exports increased. In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 50.9% year - on - year [45]. - **Alumina**: The production, imports, and exports of alumina increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 78.23% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume increased year - on - year, the production in August decreased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January to August increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 91.19% year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Aluminum Products**: The total production of aluminum products decreased year - on - year, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.2% year - on - year [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The production of cast aluminum alloy increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 11.77% year - on - year [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total production of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased. In August 2025, the production increased by 15.2% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume decreased by 28.39% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [65]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market declined slightly. In August 2025, the real estate development climate index decreased by 0.28 from last month. From January to August 2024, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.54% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 18.94% year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: Infrastructure investment showed a positive trend, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. From January to August 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year. In August 2025, automobile sales increased by 16.44% year - on - year, and production increased by 12.96% year - on - year [71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75].

北京时间9月18日，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货价格小幅走低，今日开盘报2681美元/吨，现报每吨 2683美元/吨，跌幅0.24%，盘中最高触及2685美元/吨，最低下探2669美元/吨。 更新时间： LME铝期货行情回顾： 9月17日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 9月17日，上期所铝期货仓单74465吨，环比上个交易日减少1269吨。 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 LME铝 2712.5 2716.0 2679.0 2689.5 -0.83% 【铝市场消息速递】 Alcoa预测全球铝市场在短中期内将维持相对稳定。中国将继续积极采购国际铝源，而北美和欧洲则将 持续存在供应缺口。根据公司的数据，到2025年底，全球铝市场预计将增长约7.3%，初级和再生铝的 需求将同步提升，这将促使新增产能的投放。 9月17日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铝注册仓单375025吨。注销仓单108750吨，持平。铝库存483775 吨，持平。 ...

更新时间： 北京时间8月25日是英国法定假期"夏季银行假日"，伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货休市，澳新银行分析 师在一份报告中表示："随着供应增长放缓，预计2026年铝市场将趋紧。 LME铝期货行情回顾： LME铝 2593.0 2626.0 2581.0 2621.5 1.06% 【铝市场消息速递】 8月22日，伦敦金属交易所（LME）：铝注册仓单465475吨；注销仓单13250吨，减少800吨；铝库存 478725吨，减少800吨。 8月22日，上期所铝期货仓单57144吨，环比上个交易日减少2746吨。 8月22日，电解铝现货沪伦比值为7.99，进口盈亏：-1225.72元/吨，上一交易日进口盈亏：-1151.67元/ 吨。 8月22日伦敦金属交易所(LME)铝期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 ...

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to potential tariff reductions on imports from Canada, leading to a significant drop in U.S. spot aluminum premiums by over 7% [1]. Group 1: Market Data - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global primary aluminum production is projected to reach 6.0912 million tons and consumption at 5.8649 million tons by April 2025, resulting in a surplus of 226,300 tons [1]. - From January to April 2025, global primary aluminum production totaled 24.2523 million tons, while consumption was 23.2412 million tons, indicating a surplus of 1.0111 million tons [1]. - China's imports of aluminum ore and concentrates in May 2025 reached 17.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, with total imports from January to May at 85.18 million tons, up 33.1% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures notes that while aluminum inventories are at historical lows, supporting prices, domestic demand is entering a slow season with reduced orders, leading to short-term price fluctuations with medium-term downside risks [2]. - Hualian Futures highlights that recent improvements in the supply of alumina have kept prices weak, while the cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline. Despite stable supply, the downstream aluminum processing sector is experiencing a pronounced off-season, with both domestic and export orders declining [2]. - The overall supply pressure remains manageable due to high smelting operating rates, and low inventories suggest a continued strong performance in the near term. The recommendation is to maintain a rolling long position with a reference support level of 20,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and steadily increasing demand, and the electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. For both, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 19,595 yuan/ton, and the main contract of alumina futures decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 2,786 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum注销仓单 decreased by 2,175 tons to 190,700 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,075 tons to 440,150 tons [2] - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 19,680 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous remained unchanged at 2,840 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Upstream Situation**: Alumina production decreased by 4.92 tons to 750.75 tons, and the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 64.53 tons to 647.02 tons. The export of alumina increased by 1.00 tons to 21.00 tons, and the import increased by 0.58 tons to 4.17 tons [2] - **Industry Situation**: The import of primary aluminum increased by 38,792.39 tons to 200,200.39 tons, and the export decreased by 4,973.02 tons to 3,426.54 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained unchanged at 4,517.20 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate increased by 0.13% to 97.50% [2] - **Downstream and Application**: The output of aluminum products increased by 17.91 tons to 610.66 tons, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased by 13.60 tons to 50.60 tons. The output of automobiles increased by 5.10 million to 349.86 million, and the National Housing Prosperity Index increased by 0.45 to 93.80 [2] - **Option Situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.01% to 18.30%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.02% to 14.02%. The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0193% to 12.86%, and the option call - put ratio increased by 0.0069 to 0.85 [2] 2. Industry News - China's foreign trade had a stable start in the first quarter of 2025, with the total value of goods trade imports and exports reaching 10.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Hainan plans to allocate over 10 billion yuan from 2025 - 2027 to boost consumption. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation has substantially ended [2] - OPEC lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.1% to 3%, and for 2026 from 3.2% to 3.1%. Goldman Sachs expects a surplus of 580,000 tons in the global aluminum market in 2025 [2] 3. Alumina Viewpoint - The main alumina contract oscillates weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The raw material supply pressure is gradually released, the supply may slightly converge, and the demand is steadily increasing. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [3] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - The main Shanghai Aluminum contract oscillates weakly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply and demand are both increasing, but there are risks in export trade. The option market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [4]