瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.26」 铝类市场周报 需求淡季预期向好，铝类或将震荡运行 研究员:陈思嘉 期货从业资格号 F03118799 期货投资咨询 从业证书号 Z0022803 3 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权市场分析 「 周度要点小结」 电解铝：基本面原料端，原料氧化铝价低位运行，铝厂冶炼利润较好，整体开工情况积极。供给端，随着新疆及内蒙 古部分电解铝投产，整体开工率稳中有增，但因在产产能已临近行业上限，电解铝供给增量较为零星、量级稳定。需 求端，随着淡季影响的逐步显现，下游开工情况有所走弱，加之铝价保持高位震荡，对下游的采买亦有一定抑制，故 产业库存小幅积累。整体来看，沪铝基本面或处于供给稳中小增，需求淡季的阶段，受宏观预期利好铝价维持高位震 荡。 观点总结：沪铝主力合约轻仓震荡交易，注意操作节奏及风险控制。 行情回顾：沪铝震荡偏强，周涨跌幅+0.99%，报22405元/吨。氧化铝震荡走强，周涨跌+11.72%，报2793元/吨。 行情展望： 氧化铝：基本面原料端，几内亚进口矿季节性影响减弱，发运回稳港口 ...

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices continue to rise, opening at $2877.5 per ton and currently at $2876.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.30% [1] - The highest price during the day reached $2886 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2872 per ton [1] Group 2 - On November 28, LME aluminum futures opened at $2830.0, peaked at $2879.5, and closed at $2865.0, reflecting a change of 1.18% [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.58, with an import loss of -1918.67 yuan per ton, improving from -2109.67 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2] - As of November 28, the Shanghai Futures Exchange had aluminum warehouse receipts totaling 66,935 tons, an increase of 26 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts stood at 485,575 tons, with canceled receipts at 53,475 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons, and total aluminum inventory at 539,050 tons, also down by 2,000 tons [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - **Alumina**: The supply of bauxite is gradually becoming sufficient. The supply of the alumina industry remains high, but smelters may cut production passively due to profit issues, leading to a gradual reduction in domestic alumina supply. The demand for electrolytic aluminum is stable with some minor declines. Overall, the alumina market may see a slight decrease in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to take short - term long positions in the alumina main contract at low prices, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of alumina raw materials is abundant, and the smelting profit of electrolytic aluminum is good. However, winter environmental protection restrictions and seasonal demand decline may lead to a slight decrease in domestic electrolytic aluminum production. The downstream is entering the consumption off - season, but the demand still shows some resilience due to year - end rush in the photovoltaic and automotive industries. Overall, the electrolytic aluminum market may see a slight decline in both supply and demand, and industrial inventory may accumulate. It is recommended to trade the Shanghai aluminum main contract in a range - bound manner with light positions, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [4]. - **Cast Aluminum**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, which restricts production capacity, leading to a decrease in domestic cast aluminum supply. The industry is in a seasonal downturn, but the year - end sales rush in the automotive industry provides some support for demand. Overall, the cast aluminum market may see a decrease in supply and stable demand. It is recommended to trade the cast aluminum main contract in a range - bound manner with light positions, while paying attention to operation rhythm and risk control [6]. 3. Summary by Directory **3.1 Week - ly Highlights Summary** - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum rebounded with a weekly increase of 1.27%, closing at 21,610 yuan/ton. Alumina fluctuated at a low level with a weekly decrease of 0.22%, closing at 2,707 yuan/ton. The main contract of cast aluminum rebounded slightly with a weekly increase of 1.00%, closing at 20,800 yuan/ton [4][6]. **3.2 Futures and Spot Markets** - **Price Movements**: As of November 28, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai aluminum was 21,600 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan/ton (1.41%) from November 21. The closing price of LME aluminum on November 27, 2025, was 2,831.5 dollars/ton, up 25 dollars/ton (0.89%) from November 21. The alumina futures price was 2,658 yuan/ton, down 48 yuan/ton (1.77%) from November 21. The closing price of the main cast aluminum alloy contract was 20,800 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan/ton (1%) from November 21. The A00 aluminum ingot spot price was 21,430 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton (0.33%) from November 21, with a spot discount of 60 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous week [9][13][29]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.58, down 0.26 from November 21. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 815 yuan/ton, down 240 yuan/ton from November 21. The copper - aluminum futures spread was 65,820 yuan/ton, up 1,500 yuan/ton from November 21 [10][19]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of November 28, 2025, the Shanghai aluminum open interest was 596,294 lots, down 15,917 lots (2.6%) from November 21. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 6,558 lots from November 21 [14]. **3.3 Industry Situation** - **Inventory**: As of November 27, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory was 541,050 tons, down 3,025 tons (0.56%) from November 20. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum inventory on November 21 was 123,716 tons, up 8,817 tons (7.67%) from the previous week. The domestic electrolytic aluminum social inventory on November 27 was 543,000 tons, down 23,000 tons (4.06%) from November 20. As of November 28, the SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 66,935 tons, down 2,348 tons (3.39%) from November 21. The LME electrolytic aluminum registered warehouse receipts on November 27 totaled 485,575 tons, up 775 tons (0.16%) from November 20 [32]. - **Raw Material Imports and Inventory**: The import volume of bauxite in October 2025 was 13.7661 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.3% and a year - on - year increase of 12.31%. From January to October, the cumulative import of bauxite was 170.9596 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 30.05%. The inventory of bauxite in nine domestic ports was 26.39 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 40,000 tons [35]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The price of crushed scrap aluminum in Shandong remained unchanged at 16,550 yuan/ton. In October 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap and debris was 158,360.01 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19%, and the export volume was 32.46 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2% [41]. - **Alumina Production and Trade**: In October 2025, the alumina production was 7.865 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.8%. From January to October, the cumulative alumina production was 76.344 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8%. In October, the alumina import volume was 189,300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 215.64% and a year - on - year increase of 2927.91%, and the export volume was 180,000 tons [44]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production and Trade**: In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum import volume was 248,300 tons, a year - on - year increase of 42.24%. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum import was 2.2047 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 20.88%. In October, the electrolytic aluminum export volume was 24,600 tons. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum export was 206,000 tons. In 2025 from January to August, the global aluminum market had a supply deficit of 105,400 tons. In October 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production was 3.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 0.4%. From January to October, the cumulative electrolytic aluminum output was 37.75 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [47][51]. - **Aluminum Products**: In October 2025, the aluminum product production was 5.694 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.2%. From January to October, the cumulative aluminum product production was 55.243 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.4%. In October, the aluminum product import volume was 350,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 10.4%, and the export volume was 500,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 12.8% [55]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the monthly installed capacity of recycled aluminum alloy was 1.26 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.96%. The recycled aluminum alloy production was 608,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.35 and a year - on - year decrease of 1.83% [58]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: In October 2025, the aluminum alloy production was 1.682 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.2%. From January to October, the cumulative aluminum alloy production was 15.76 million tons. In October, the aluminum alloy import volume was 76,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.77%, and the export volume was 30,900 tons, a year - on - year increase of 50.65%. From January to October, the aluminum alloy import volume was 841,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.24%, and the export volume was 228,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13.81% [61]. - **Related Industries**: In October 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.43, down 0.34 from the previous month and up 0.05 from the same period last year. From January to October 2024, the new housing start - up area was 490.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19.87%, and the housing completion area was 348.61 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 16.31%. From January to October 2024, the infrastructure investment increased by 1.51% year - on - year. In October 2025, the sales volume of Chinese automobiles was 3.322 million, a year - on - year increase of 8.81%, and the production volume was 3.359 million, a year - on - year increase of 12.1% [64][67]. **3.4 Option Market Analysis** Given that the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and the volatility may converge in the future, a double - selling strategy can be considered to short the volatility [71].

专题报告 2025-11-27 铝：美国加征关税后的市场变化 吴坤金 有色研究员 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 2025 年美国铝关税落地后引起美国原铝、铝材及铝制品进口数量减少，关税在抑制美国需求的 同时也带动了该国铝库存消耗。同时，美国铝关税落地也导致加拿大出口美国原铝数量明显减 少、出口到非美国家的数量增加。由于非美国家铝需求增加，关税引起的贸易流向变化并未引 起美国以外库存累积。 当前及未来一段时间，美国原铝库存消耗引起的现货升水走高使得出口到美国的优势重新显 现，加拿大以及非美国家和地区的原铝有望更多流向美国，并逆转 4-8 月的贸易流向。叠加消 费维持增长和新增产能有限，我们预计美国以外的原铝供需关系将维持阶段性偏紧，全球铝价 依然具有较强的支撑。 有色金属研究 | 铝 铝：美国加征关税后的市场变化 2018 年美国启动针对钢铁和铝的 232 调查，并对铝征收 10%的关税，不过此后逐渐实施关税豁 免，并扩大关税豁免范围。今年 3 月 12 日，美国将进口铝产品关税提升至 25%，且取消了加拿 大、墨 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views - The fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum may be in a stage of stable supply and increasing demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum at low prices with a light position, and conduct oscillatory trading on the main contract of alumina with a light position [5]. - The fundamentals of alumina are currently in a state of oversupply with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - The fundamentals of cast aluminum alloy may be in a stage of slightly reduced supply and slightly improved demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long positions on the main contract of cast aluminum at low prices with a light position [8]. - Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Week - to - week Key Points Summary - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The supply of raw material alumina is sufficient, and the smelting profit remains at a good level. The demand for downstream aluminum processing has increased due to the traditional consumption season and pre - holiday stockpiling [5]. - **Alumina**: The impact of the rainy season in Guinea on shipments continues, and the supply of domestic bauxite is expected to be tight. However, the overall supply is still sufficient, and the demand is slightly increased but less than the supply growth, with a slight accumulation of inventory [6]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of raw material scrap aluminum is tight, limiting production. The pre - holiday stockpiling and the decline in cast aluminum quotes have slightly improved downstream demand, but consumption is still weak, and inventory has slightly increased [8]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Price Movement**: As of September 19, 2025, the closing price of Shanghai Aluminum was 20,780 yuan/ton, down 2.37% from September 12; the closing price of LME Aluminum on September 18 was 2,705 US dollars/ton, up 0.97% from September 12. The alumina futures price was 2,915 yuan/ton, up 1.39% from September 12; the closing price of the main contract of cast aluminum alloy was 20,355 yuan/ton, down 1.4% from September 12 [11][15]. - **Ratio and Spread**: As of September 19, 2025, the Shanghai - LME ratio of electrolytic aluminum was 7.68, down 0.16 from September 12. The aluminum - zinc futures spread was 1,250 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton from September 12; the copper - aluminum futures spread was 59,115 yuan/ton, down 825 yuan/ton from September 12 [12][23]. - **Inventory and Position**: As of September 19, 2025, the position of Shanghai Aluminum was 525,078 lots, down 14.07% from September 12; the net position of the top 20 in Shanghai Aluminum was 4,602 lots, down 1,255 lots from September 12 [18]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 19, 2025, the spot price of A00 aluminum ingots was 20,840 yuan/ton, down 1% from September 12, with a spot discount of 20 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton from last week. The average spot price of alumina in Henan, Shanxi, and Guiyang decreased, and the national average price of cast aluminum alloy decreased [26][31]. 3.3 Industry Situation - **Inventory**: As of September 18, 2025, the LME electrolytic aluminum inventory increased by 5.9%, the Shanghai Futures Exchange (SHFE) inventory increased by 3.56%, and the domestic social inventory increased by 4.21%. The SHFE electrolytic aluminum warehouse receipts decreased by 0.7%, and the LME registered warehouse receipts increased by 7.91% [36]. - **Bauxite**: The total import volume of bauxite increased year - on - year, and the port inventory slightly increased. In July 2025, the monthly import volume increased by 10.75% month - on - month and 34.22% year - on - year. From January to July, the cumulative import volume increased by 33.65% year - on - year [39]. - **Scrap Aluminum**: The quote of scrap aluminum decreased, and imports and exports increased. In July 2025, the import volume of aluminum scrap increased by 18.7% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 50.9% year - on - year [45]. - **Alumina**: The production, imports, and exports of alumina increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 7.5% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 78.23% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [48]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The import volume increased year - on - year, the production in August decreased slightly year - on - year, and the cumulative production from January to August increased year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume increased by 91.19% year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 0.5% year - on - year [51][55]. - **Aluminum Products**: The total production of aluminum products decreased year - on - year, imports increased year - on - year, and exports decreased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production decreased by 4.2% year - on - year, the import volume increased by 12.9% year - on - year, and the export volume decreased by 10.2% year - on - year [59]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: The production of cast aluminum alloy increased year - on - year. In August 2025, the production increased by 11.77% year - on - year [62]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The total production of aluminum alloy increased, imports decreased, and exports increased. In August 2025, the production increased by 15.2% year - on - year. In July 2025, the import volume decreased by 28.39% year - on - year, and the export volume increased by 38.3% year - on - year [65]. - **Real Estate**: The real estate market declined slightly. In August 2025, the real estate development climate index decreased by 0.28 from last month. From January to August 2024, the new housing start - up area decreased by 19.54% year - on - year, and the housing completion area decreased by 18.94% year - on - year [68]. - **Infrastructure and Automobiles**: Infrastructure investment showed a positive trend, and automobile production and sales increased year - on - year. From January to August 2024, infrastructure investment increased by 5.42% year - on - year. In August 2025, automobile sales increased by 16.44% year - on - year, and production increased by 12.96% year - on - year [71]. 3.4 Option Market Analysis Given that the aluminum price will be supported in the future, a double - buying strategy can be considered to bet on increased volatility [75].

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices experienced a slight decline, opening at $2681 per ton and currently at $2683 per ton, with a decrease of 0.24% [1] - On September 17, LME aluminum futures closed at $2689.5 per ton, down 0.83% from the previous day, with a trading range between $2679.0 and $2716.0 [2] - Alcoa predicts that the global aluminum market will remain relatively stable in the short to medium term, with China continuing to actively procure international aluminum sources while North America and Europe face supply shortages [2] Group 2 - By the end of 2025, the global aluminum market is expected to grow by approximately 7.3%, driven by simultaneous increases in demand for primary and recycled aluminum, which will encourage new capacity investments [2] - As of September 17, LME registered aluminum warrants totaled 375,025 tons, with canceled warrants at 108,750 tons, indicating no change in inventory levels [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warrants at 74,465 tons, a decrease of 1,269 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the aluminum market is expected to tighten by 2026 due to a slowdown in supply growth [1] Group 2 - On August 22, LME aluminum futures opened at 2593.0, reached a high of 2626.0, a low of 2581.0, and closed at 2621.5, reflecting a change of 1.06% [2] - As of August 22, LME registered aluminum warrants totaled 465,475 tons, with canceled warrants at 13,250 tons, a decrease of 800 tons; total aluminum inventory was 478,725 tons, also down by 800 tons [2] - On the same day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warrants at 57,144 tons, a decrease of 2,746 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.99, with an import profit and loss of -1,225.72 yuan/ton, compared to -1,151.67 yuan/ton the previous trading day [2]

News Summary Core Viewpoint - The aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to potential tariff reductions on imports from Canada, leading to a significant drop in U.S. spot aluminum premiums by over 7% [1]. Group 1: Market Data - According to the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), global primary aluminum production is projected to reach 6.0912 million tons and consumption at 5.8649 million tons by April 2025, resulting in a surplus of 226,300 tons [1]. - From January to April 2025, global primary aluminum production totaled 24.2523 million tons, while consumption was 23.2412 million tons, indicating a surplus of 1.0111 million tons [1]. - China's imports of aluminum ore and concentrates in May 2025 reached 17.51 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 29.4%, with total imports from January to May at 85.18 million tons, up 33.1% year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Zhengxin Futures notes that while aluminum inventories are at historical lows, supporting prices, domestic demand is entering a slow season with reduced orders, leading to short-term price fluctuations with medium-term downside risks [2]. - Hualian Futures highlights that recent improvements in the supply of alumina have kept prices weak, while the cost of electrolytic aluminum is expected to decline. Despite stable supply, the downstream aluminum processing sector is experiencing a pronounced off-season, with both domestic and export orders declining [2]. - The overall supply pressure remains manageable due to high smelting operating rates, and low inventories suggest a continued strong performance in the near term. The recommendation is to maintain a rolling long position with a reference support level of 20,000 yuan/ton for Shanghai aluminum [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly converging supply and steadily increasing demand, and the electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation of both supply and demand increasing. For both, it is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and control the rhythm and trading risks [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - **Futures Market**: The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 90 yuan/ton to 19,595 yuan/ton, and the main contract of alumina futures decreased by 44 yuan/ton to 2,786 yuan/ton. The LME aluminum注销仓单 decreased by 2,175 tons to 190,700 tons, and the LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,075 tons to 440,150 tons [2] - **Spot Market**: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum decreased by 80 yuan/ton to 19,680 yuan/ton, and the alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous remained unchanged at 2,840 yuan/ton. The Shanghai Wumao aluminum premium decreased by 10 yuan/ton to - 10 yuan/ton [2] - **Upstream Situation**: Alumina production decreased by 4.92 tons to 750.75 tons, and the demand for alumina in the electrolytic aluminum part decreased by 64.53 tons to 647.02 tons. The export of alumina increased by 1.00 tons to 21.00 tons, and the import increased by 0.58 tons to 4.17 tons [2] - **Industry Situation**: The import of primary aluminum increased by 38,792.39 tons to 200,200.39 tons, and the export decreased by 4,973.02 tons to 3,426.54 tons. The electrolytic aluminum production capacity remained unchanged at 4,517.20 tons, and the electrolytic aluminum start - up rate increased by 0.13% to 97.50% [2] - **Downstream and Application**: The output of aluminum products increased by 17.91 tons to 610.66 tons, and the export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products increased by 13.60 tons to 50.60 tons. The output of automobiles increased by 5.10 million to 349.86 million, and the National Housing Prosperity Index increased by 0.45 to 93.80 [2] - **Option Situation**: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum increased by 0.01% to 18.30%, and the 40 - day historical volatility increased by 0.02% to 14.02%. The implied volatility of the main at - the - money IV decreased by 0.0193% to 12.86%, and the option call - put ratio increased by 0.0069 to 0.85 [2] 2. Industry News - China's foreign trade had a stable start in the first quarter of 2025, with the total value of goods trade imports and exports reaching 10.3 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 1.3%. Hainan plans to allocate over 10 billion yuan from 2025 - 2027 to boost consumption. The China - ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 negotiation has substantially ended [2] - OPEC lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.1% to 3%, and for 2026 from 3.2% to 3.1%. Goldman Sachs expects a surplus of 580,000 tons in the global aluminum market in 2025 [2] 3. Alumina Viewpoint - The main alumina contract oscillates weakly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The raw material supply pressure is gradually released, the supply may slightly converge, and the demand is steadily increasing. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [3] 4. Electrolytic Aluminum Viewpoint - The main Shanghai Aluminum contract oscillates weakly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The supply and demand are both increasing, but there are risks in export trade. The option market sentiment is bearish. It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading [4]