5)预计行业供给侧改革加速，表现为银行牌照数量快速减少，行业竞争和经营格局改善。低利率时代的 客户需求特征，政府以及国资系统成为加杠杆的重要构成部分，影响新增社融结构，逐步映射至银行资 产负债表。因此，目标客户结构、经营区域特征，决定了过去以及未来几年银行机构扩表节奏的差异 性。 另外，境内市场亦包含了诸多监管政策影响，比如银行普惠业务发展进入新阶段 供给侧，风险补偿而非客户数量不足，限制了银行进一步拓展和服务客群的动力；需求侧，当客户覆盖 度大幅提高后，产品服务体验而非价格，成为普惠客群的主要关注点。类似监管政策既定效果显现充分 后，进一步的退出或优化将至关重要。中金预计2026年信贷社融余额增速略有放缓，利率债等敞口结构 占比进一步提高。 风险因素 中金发布研报称，作为金融基础设施，银行已进入高质量发展阶段，过去一两年少数上市银行利润同比 增速录得二位数增长，高股息投资成为主要范式。银行端，关注股息率的高低以及确定性，高低取决于 估值与利润增速，确定性则聚焦资产质量与营收可持续性。基准情形下，继续看好银行股的绝对收益与 相对收益表现，资金主要源自配置需求，银行股的高股息标签愈发得到市场认可，与其他行业的最 ...

Core Viewpoint - The banking industry is expected to maintain stable performance through 2026, with revenue and profit growth remaining steady due to narrowing net interest margin pressure and slowing credit growth driven by weak demand and insufficient risk compensation [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Performance - Revenue and profit for listed banks are projected to remain stable year-on-year, primarily due to a further narrowing of net interest margin, which is expected to decrease by 12 basis points in 2025 and remain within 10 basis points in 2026 [3]. - As of September, the year-on-year growth rate of credit balance is 6.6%, while the social financing balance growth rate is 8.7%, both of which are influenced by fiscal policy [3]. - Fee income growth is expected to stabilize and recover after several years of fee reductions and high base pressure [3]. - Small and micro enterprises, along with retail customer exposures, continue to be the main sources of non-performing loans, while corporate business exposures show stable or improving trends in net non-performing loan generation rates [3][5]. Group 2: Strategic Adjustments - The banking sector is undergoing a transformation towards high-quality development, driven by macroeconomic changes, industrial structure adjustments, technological applications, and regulatory cycles [6]. - Banks are optimizing their operational strategies to focus on high-quality development, utilizing technology and big data to enhance strategic execution efficiency [6]. - There is a shift in focus towards acquiring and managing target customer groups, with operational results observable through indicators such as funding costs and funding structure [6]. Group 3: Investment Perspective - The banking sector has entered a phase of high-quality development, with only a few listed banks achieving double-digit growth, making high-dividend investments a primary strategy [3][6]. - The financial indicators related to high dividends require a focus on high-quality development to sustain performance [3].

Core Viewpoint - The decline of deposit brokers in the banking industry reflects a shift towards stricter financial regulation and a fundamental change in banking institutions' operational philosophies, indicating a transition from chaotic deposit acquisition practices to a more regulated and sustainable model [1][2][6]. Group 1: Reasons for the Decline of Deposit Brokers - The tightening of financial regulations has led to increased scrutiny and enforcement against illegal deposit acquisition practices, causing many small brokers to exit the market [2][3]. - Banks are facing pressure to transform their business models due to narrowing net interest margins, prompting a shift from high-cost liabilities to sustainable growth strategies [2][4]. - A growing consensus among banks to avoid excessive competition has emerged, leading to a reduction in aggressive deposit acquisition practices [2][6]. Group 2: Negative Impacts of Deposit Brokers - The presence of deposit brokers has significantly increased banks' funding costs, undermining their operational strength and pushing them towards high-risk investments [4][5]. - Deposit brokers have distorted market interest rates, leading to higher borrowing costs for businesses and hindering the development of the real economy [4][5]. - The activities of deposit brokers have resulted in widespread false transactions, compromising the integrity of financial statistics and market order [5][6]. Group 3: Positive Effects of the Decline of Deposit Brokers - The reduction of deposit brokers is expected to lower banks' funding costs and improve their overall operational capabilities, alleviating pressure on net interest margins [6][8]. - The decline of brokers will help restore order in the deposit market, promoting a healthier competitive environment focused on quality rather than quantity [7][8]. - The shift away from reliance on deposit brokers will encourage banks to innovate and enhance customer service, leading to sustainable development in the banking sector [8][9].