智通财经APP获悉，香港联交所最新资料显示，11月26日，赣锋锂业(01772)股东将股票由花旗银行转入 香港上海汇丰银行，转仓市值14.73亿港元，占比6.64%。 高盛近日发布研报称，锂市场基本面近几月显著改善，预计2025年下半年至2026年上半年供需将呈现偏 紧状态，主要原因在于国内需求及出口双双走强，其中储能系统是预期变化最大的驱动因素，而供应端 的反应速度尚未明显加速。该行将赣锋锂业H股评级由"中性"下调至"沽售"，港股目标价由28港元上调 至32港元。 ...

高盛发布研报称，锂市场基本面近几月显著改善，预计2025年下半年至2026年上半年供需将呈现偏紧状态，主要原因在于国内需求及出口双双走强，其中储能系统是预期变化最大的驱动因素， 不过，该行认为当前现货价格存在下行风险，原因包括下游市场在短期内的负面反馈，储能系统安装增长速度减缓和其他因素影响库存增补，供应端节奏也较慢。高盛更新锂价预测，以中国基准 责任编辑：史丽君 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that the lithium market fundamentals have significantly improved in recent months, with expectations of a tighter supply-demand balance from the second half of 2025 to the first half of 2026, driven by strong domestic demand and exports, particularly in energy storage systems [1] - Goldman Sachs downgraded Ganfeng Lithium (002460) from "Neutral" to "Sell," raising the target price for Hong Kong shares from 28 HKD to 32 HKD, while maintaining a "Sell" rating for Ganfeng Lithium A-shares (002460.SZ) and Tianqi Lithium (002466) [1] - The target price for Tianqi Lithium's Hong Kong shares was increased from 21.5 HKD to 24.5 HKD [1] Group 2 - The current spot prices for lithium are considered to have downside risks due to negative feedback from the downstream market, a slowdown in energy storage system installation growth, and slow supply-side responses [2] - Goldman Sachs updated its lithium price forecasts, predicting an average price of 11,000 USD per ton of lithium carbonate in the first half of 2026, unchanged from previous predictions, while the second half of 2026 is expected to average 9,500 USD per ton, a 14% downward adjustment [2] - The average price for 2027 is forecasted at 9,300 USD per ton, reflecting a 15% downward adjustment from previous estimates, leading to a 5% to 42% reduction in profit forecasts for lithium stocks for 2026 to 2027 [2]

Core Insights - Morgan Stanley's report indicates that the demand for energy storage will lead to a lithium shortage, resulting in both short-term and long-term price increases Group 1: Supply and Demand Assessment - The production of materials used in energy storage batteries is expected to increase by 50% and 43% in 2025 and 2026 respectively, creating a supply-demand gap [1] - Electric vehicle demand is projected to grow by 3% to 5% according to global team research [1] - The supply side remains uncertain, particularly regarding the restart of CATL's mines, which is crucial under the new demand forecast [1] - Lithium spodumene spot prices have rebounded from approximately $800 per ton to $950 per ton, highlighting short-term supply tightness [1] Group 2: Long-term Price Expectations - Long-term lithium prices should be higher due to sustained growth in energy storage battery demand and market acceptance of higher prices [2] - Mining companies have indicated that they will not consider restarting idle capacity unless prices stabilize between $1,200 and $1,500 per ton [2] Group 3: Market Dynamics - The development of energy storage technology has reversed the long-term oversupply expectations for lithium, with a significant increase in energy storage battery shipments expected [3] - Energy storage technology is projected to account for 30% of lithium market demand by 2026 and 36% by 2030, with total global lithium demand reaching 2.8 million tons by 2030 [3] Group 4: Supply Adjustments - Supply adjustments are lagging behind demand growth, with unclear timelines for the restart of CATL's nine mines, which have become catalysts for price increases during their downtime [4] - Supply is expected to increase by about 2% to 3% starting in 2027 as higher price expectations stimulate more mining companies to expand capacity [4] Group 5: Price Forecast Adjustments - Short-term price forecasts for lithium spodumene have been raised from $800 per ton to $1,100 to $1,200 per ton, reflecting current market supply-demand imbalances [5] - Long-term price expectations have been adjusted upwards to $1,300 per ton, as previous estimates were deemed too conservative given the surge in energy storage system demand [6] Group 6: Reasons for Price Adjustments - Higher long-term demand necessitates elevated prices to incentivize the production of new and idle mines, alongside rising capital expenditures and operational costs [7] - The valuation trends in the lithium market have increased, making previous low-price forecasts unsuitable for the current demand growth [8] - Mining companies in countries like Australia have stated that prices must exceed $1,200 per ton to consider restarting production at certain mines [9]

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯雅化集团7月29日在互动平台回答投资者提问时表示，公司会密切关注锂市场动态和供需 变化，以制定合理的经营策略。公司具体经营数据请以相关信息披露为准。 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Q1 2025, the company achieved the highest first-quarter lithium sales volumes in its history, with a 20% year-on-year increase, driven by strong demand from the electric vehicle market in China and Europe [7] - Average realized prices for lithium in Q2 2025 are expected to be lower than in Q1 2025 due to recent price declines [8][57] - The iodine business experienced record average prices amid tight supply and steady demand, particularly for X-ray contrast media applications [9] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Lithium sales volumes increased significantly, while the potassium business saw a reduction in volumes as part of a strategy to prioritize high lithium content brines [11] - Specialty Plant Nutrition (SPN) sales volumes grew at a healthy pace, with an upward trend in prices due to strong demand for potassium chloride [10] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company maintains a view that global lithium demand will grow by 17% in 2025, with SQM's sales expected to grow by 15% year-on-year [29][62] - The market is currently experiencing oversupply, but long-term demand is expected to remain strong, particularly in the electric vehicle sector [62][88] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on expanding lithium production capacity to 240,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate and 100,000 metric tons of lithium hydroxide [9] - Investment in operational efficiencies and capacity expansions is ongoing, with a commitment to sustainable growth [12] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the long-term fundamentals of the lithium market, despite current pricing pressures [12][88] - The company believes that the current low price environment is unsustainable and anticipates a recovery in prices in the near future [84][86] Other Important Information - The dividend policy established by the board is to distribute 30% of net income for 2025, with no interim dividends planned for the first quarter [48] - The Mt. Holland project is cash positive even at current prices, with ongoing ramp-up efforts [82] Q&A Session Summary Question: Expectations for operating cash flow in Q2 - Management does not expect to be close to breakeven in Q2 and anticipates being significantly above that [15][16] Question: Impact of lower lithium prices on capital structure - The company has a strong balance sheet and does not foresee financial constraints affecting future projects [19] Question: Current political noise in Chile regarding Codelco JV - Management described the situation as "noise" and confirmed that the transaction is progressing as planned [22][26] Question: Lithium sales growth forecast - The company has not updated its annual volume forecast but expects similar or slightly lower volumes in Q2 compared to Q1 [30] Question: Pricing dynamics in China - The company has various pricing mechanisms with customers, and specific details cannot be disclosed [36] Question: CapEx requirements for growth plans - The CapEx plan will be reviewed and shared with the market in the upcoming months [53] Question: Production costs and expectations - The company expects to reduce operational costs and maintain cost leadership in the market [78] Question: Outlook for Mt. Holland project - The Mt. Holland operation is cash positive, and the project is on track despite higher costs during ramp-up [82][93]