在2月3日（周二），沪锌主力合约低开震荡后反弹遇阻，盘面继续承压。截至10：15分休盘，报价定格 在每吨25095元，下跌65元，跌幅仅为0.26%。长江有色金属数据显示，长江现货0#锌价报25070元/吨， 单日涨80元/吨；1#锌价报24970元/吨，同样单日涨80元/吨，这期现背离，进一步证明了期货市场仍在 宏观空头势力主导，让锌价的走势更加扑朔迷离。 宏观"风暴眼"：政策迷雾与经济变数 当下，宏观层面的种种因素就像一场暴风雨，无情地冲击着锌价这艘小船。市场所有目光都聚焦在被提 名人沃什身上，他就像一位神秘的舵手，其真实政策立场牵动着每一个投资者的心。他究竟会延续提名 时展现的"鸽派"降息倾向，为市场带来一丝温暖与宽松；还是回归早期"鹰派"作风，让市场感受到紧缩 的压力？尤其是他如何协调"降息"言论与"缩减资产负债表"的主张，更是成为了市场猜测的焦点。一旦 他释放出实质性收紧金融条件的信号，锌价这艘小船在短期内恐怕将面临狂风暴雨的侵袭，价格被压制 在低位难以动弹。 再把目光转向美国经济这片海洋。近期美国制造业虽有反弹的迹象，就像海面上偶尔泛起的浪花，看似 充满生机，但贸易政策不确定性引发的悲观情绪，以及 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zinc prices are experiencing a unique upward trend driven by macroeconomic factors, including strong oil prices and a weaker US dollar, despite uncertainties in the international market and domestic demand challenges [1][2]. Macroeconomic Factors - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 73,982 billion yuan in 2025, marking a 0.6% increase year-on-year, indicating a gradual recovery in the domestic industrial economy and potential support for zinc demand [1]. - The US consumer confidence index fell by 9.7 points to 84.5 in January, the lowest since 2014, reflecting concerns about the economic outlook, which may suppress zinc demand [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - In the domestic zinc market, both supply and demand remain weak. Zinc concentrate processing fees are at low levels, with domestic fees between 1,100 and 1,500 yuan per metal ton, constraining zinc supply and providing support for prices [3]. - Despite the low processing fees, smelters face production pressure, limiting refined zinc output. However, high zinc prices maintain production willingness among smelters [3]. - Domestic refined zinc social inventory was 109,900 tons as of Monday, a slight increase of 1,300 tons since January 22, indicating limited pressure on zinc prices [3]. International Market Influences - The geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Iran, are adding uncertainty to zinc prices. Such tensions can lead to increased demand for safe-haven assets like gold, potentially suppressing demand for industrial metals like zinc [4]. - The late timing of the Spring Festival in January and the overall stable consumption performance may lead to fluctuations in zinc prices, with current expectations for a short-term rebound, although the upward potential may be limited [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report - The previous trading day saw Shanghai Zinc fluctuate and rise, closing with a positive line, increased trading volume, and both long and short positions increasing, with more short - position increases. The market may fluctuate and decline in the short term. Technically, the price closed above the moving - average system with strong support. Short - term indicators KDJ are rising, operating in the strong area with increased overbought conditions; the trend indicator is declining, with the long - position strength rising and the short - position strength falling, and the long - position advantage expanding. The operation suggestion is that Shanghai Zinc ZN2601 will fluctuate and decline [22]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Analysis - In September 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.1935 million tons, consumption was 1.2292 million tons, with a supply shortage of 35,700 tons. From January to September, global zinc plate production was 10.3632 million tons, consumption was 10.7369 million tons, with a supply shortage of 373,700 tons. In September, global zinc ore production was 1.1633 million tons; from January to September, it was 9.9647 million tons, showing a bullish sign [2]. 2. Basis Analysis - The spot price was 23,270, and the basis was + 100, indicating a neutral situation [2]. 3. Inventory Analysis - On December 8, LME zinc inventory increased by 2,375 tons to 57,750 tons compared to the previous day, and the Shanghai Futures Exchange zinc inventory warrants decreased by 2,332 tons to 58,397 tons compared to the previous day, showing a neutral situation [2]. 4. Market Trend Analysis - The previous day, Shanghai Zinc showed a fluctuating and rising trend, closing above the 20 - day moving average, with the 20 - day moving average rising, showing a bullish sign [2]. 5. Main Position Analysis - The main net position was short, and short positions increased, showing a bearish sign [2]. 6. Futures Exchange Zinc Futures Market on December 8 - The trading volume of zinc futures on December 8 was 275,955 lots, and the trading value was 3.19074597 billion yuan. The total open interest was 214,900 lots, an increase of 6,840 lots [3]. 7. Domestic Main Spot Market on December 8 - The domestic zinc concentrate spot TC was 1,800 yuan/metal ton (down 100 yuan), and the comprehensive TC for imported zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/dry ton (unchanged). The prices of 0 zinc in Shanghai, Guangdong, Tianjin, and Zhejiang were 23,270 yuan/ton (down 20 yuan), 22,980 yuan/ton (up 20 yuan), 23,090 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan), and 23,260 yuan/ton (up 5 yuan) respectively [4]. 8. Zinc Ingot Inventory in Main Markets from November 27 to December 8 - The total zinc ingot inventory in main markets decreased from 14.04 million tons on November 27 to 13.23 million tons on December 8, a decrease of 0.53 million tons compared to December 1 and a decrease of 0.16 million tons compared to December 4 [5]. 9. Shanghai Futures Exchange Zinc Warrant Report on December 8 - The total zinc warrants on the Shanghai Futures Exchange on December 8 were 58,397 tons, a decrease of 2,332 tons. The warrants in Guangdong decreased by 1,578 tons, and those in Tianjin decreased by 424 tons [6]. 10. LME Zinc Inventory Distribution and Statistics on December 8 - The previous day's LME zinc inventory was 55,375 tons, with an inflow of 2,475 tons and an outflow of 100 tons, and the current inventory was 57,750 tons, an increase of 2,375 tons [8]. 11. Zinc Concentrate Price in Main Cities on December 8 - The prices of 50% - grade zinc concentrate in cities such as Jiyuan, Chenzhou, and Kunming were 19,860 yuan, 19,760 yuan, and 19,760 yuan respectively, with price changes ranging from - 10 yuan to + 290 yuan [10]. 12. Zinc Ingot Smelter Price on December 8 - The prices of 0 zinc ingots from different smelters such as Hunan Zhuzhou Pei, San Shi Huludao Zinc Industry, and Guangdong Zhongjin Lingnan were 23,400 yuan, 23,830 yuan, and 23,130 yuan respectively [13]. 13. Domestic Refined Zinc Production in November 2025 - The actual refined zinc production in November 2025 was 496,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.64%, a year - on - year increase of 18.48%, and a 4.93% decrease compared to the planned value. The capacity utilization rate was 69.45%, and the planned production for December was 477,500 tons [16]. 14. Zinc Concentrate Processing Fee on December 8 - The domestic zinc concentrate processing fees for 50% - grade in different regions ranged from 1,600 yuan/metal ton to 2,200 yuan/metal ton, with price changes from - 300 yuan to 0 yuan. The processing fee for imported 48% - grade zinc concentrate was 70 US dollars/dry ton [18]. 15. Shanghai Futures Exchange Member Zinc Trading and Position Ranking on December 8 - The total trading volume of zinc by members of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 292,199 lots, an increase of 34,488 lots. The total long - position was 74,214 lots, an increase of 2,056 lots, and the total short - position was 71,587 lots, an increase of 2,744 lots [21].

Report Summary 1. Core Views - **Positive Factors**: Zinc ore visible inventory is continuously decreasing, and the decline in processing fees has led to a narrowing of smelting profits. The temporary tightness of raw material supply restricts refined zinc production. The operating rates of demand - side sectors such as galvanizing and die - casting zinc are stable. The stable rigid demand consumption combined with positive market sentiment provides support [3]. - **Negative Factors**: Domestic zinc ingot inventory is relatively high (social inventory is 163,500 tons), and it increased by 1,400 tons this week, continuously suppressing prices. The weak fundamental pattern dominates pricing, and there is a risk of price decline if demand does not improve substantially [3]. - **Trading Advice**: Consider an interval trading strategy and pay attention to marginal changes in supply and demand [3]. 2. Section Summaries Processing and End - User Demand - Multiple charts are presented, including the weekly market sentiment index of galvanized coils, weekly inventory, weekly production, net exports of galvanized sheets (strips), net imports of die - casting zinc alloys, net exports of color - coated sheets (strips), net exports of zinc oxide, real - estate development investment and project progress cumulative year - on - year data, sales area and unsold area cumulative year - on - year data, land transaction area in 100 large - and medium - sized cities, and the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large - and medium - sized cities, as well as infrastructure fixed - asset investment data [4][7][10][12][14][15]. Supply and Supply - Side Profits - Charts show the monthly import volume of zinc concentrates, zinc concentrate TC, monthly production of SMM zinc ingots, production profit and processing fees of refined zinc enterprises, monthly production plus imports of Chinese zinc ingots, raw material inventory days of zinc concentrates, LME zinc inventory, SHFE zinc inventory, and exchange zinc ingot inventory [18][20][21][22][24][25]. Futures and Spot Market Review - Charts cover the price trends of domestic and foreign zinc, trading volume and open interest of Shanghai zinc futures, LME zinc closing price vs. the US dollar index, LME zinc (spot/three - month) and 3 - 15 spread, LME zinc (spot/three - month) spread seasonality, Tianjin zinc ingot basis seasonality, and the basis trends of zinc ingots in three locations [27][28][29][31][32][33][36]. 3. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Terminal demand has slightly improved, but there was no significant increase in market purchases after the zinc price weakened last week. The fundamental situation remains one of strong supply and weak demand. However, the macro - level risk - aversion sentiment has eased, and with the continuous reduction of LME zinc inventories and the existence of overseas structural risks, Shanghai zinc has stabilized. It is expected to maintain a range - bound consolidation in the short term, with the operating range referring to 21,500 - 22,500 yuan/ton. Continued attention should be paid to changes in macro - sentiment and the opening of the ingot export window [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - SMM1 zinc ingot average price dropped 2.02% to 21,780 yuan/ton, Shanghai zinc main contract closing price fell 2.04% to 21,815 yuan/ton, and LME zinc closing price (electronic trading) declined 1.41% to 2,942.5 dollars/ton [13]. 3.2 Raw Material End - As of October 17, the inventory of imported zinc ore in Lianyungang was 140,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period. The total inventory of 7 ports was 380,600 tons, an increase of 41,300 tons. The CZSPT set the guidance price range for the purchase of imported zinc concentrate in Q4 2025 at 120 - 140 dollars/dry ton [25]. - As of October 16, the production profit of zinc concentrate enterprises was 3,980 yuan/metal ton. In August, the import volume of zinc concentrate was 467,300 tons, a 6.81% month - on - month decrease and a 30.60% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the cumulative import volume was 3.5027 million tons, a 43.06% cumulative year - on - year increase [31]. - Domestic TC decreased slightly, while imported TC continued to rise. On October 17, 2025, domestic TC was 3,400 yuan/metal ton, and the imported TC index was 118.75 dollars/dry ton [35]. 3.3 Supply End - The production profit of refined zinc enterprises has declined but remains considerable. As of October 16, the production profit was - 630 yuan/ton. In September, the domestic refined zinc output was about 600,000 tons [41]. - The import profit window is closed. As of October 17, the import profit of refined zinc was - 4,529.70 yuan/ton. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import volume of refined zinc was 235,500 tons, a decrease of 31,500 tons year - on - year [44]. 3.4 Demand End 3.4.1 Galvanizing - The galvanizing enterprise's operating rate increased by 11.22 percentage points to 58.05%. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory of galvanizing enterprises decreased [52][55]. 3.4.2 Die - Casting Zinc Alloy - The prices of Zamak3 and Zamak5 zinc alloys decreased by 1.96% and 1.92% respectively. The operating rate increased by 8.12 percentage points to 54.63%. The raw material inventory increased, and the finished product inventory decreased [64][67][71]. 3.4.3 Zinc Oxide - The average price of zinc oxide (≥99.7%) decreased by 0.47% to 21,000 yuan/ton. The operating rate increased by 1.05 percentage points to 57.13%. Both the raw material inventory and the finished product inventory decreased slightly [77][80][83]. 3.5 Inventory - As of October 16, the SMM zinc ingot three - place inventory was 153,100 tons, showing an increase. The SMM zinc ingot bonded area inventory was 8,000 tons, unchanged from the previous period [91]. - As of October 17, the SHFE inventory was 109,600 tons, showing an increase, and the LME inventory was 38,000 tons, showing a continuous decline [94]. 3.6 Monthly Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From August 2025, the monthly supply - demand balance showed a surplus, with 51,000 tons in August, 28,000 tons in July, and 23,900 tons in June [100].