1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The global tin ore cost center is expected to rise, with a structural increase in costs. The direct cash cost is expected to grow steadily by 55% in 8 years, and the full cost will more than double [3][5]. - Tin ore (ingot) costs vary across different regions in China. Costs in most regions around the world are rising, with a significant gap between high - and low - cost production areas. Currently, tin prices have a certain premium compared to mine - end costs, and the pricing logic has shifted [31][34][37]. 3. Summary by Directory Global Tin Ore Cost Overview - According to ITA statistics, in 2022, the 90th - percentile cash cost and full cost of global tin ore were $23,171/ton ($161,164/ton) and $25,581/ton ($177,926/ton) respectively. It is expected that by 2030, they will rise to $36,000/ton ($250,394/ton) and $54,000/ton ($375,592/ton) [5]. China - Tin ore resources are mainly distributed in Yunnan, Guangxi, and Inner Mongolia. Representative companies are Yunnan Tin, Xingye Yinxing, and Huaxi Non - ferrous. In 2024, Yunnan Tin's tin ingot cost was about 165,500 yuan/ton, with a 3 - year CAGR of - 6.71%; Huaxi's tin concentrate cost was about 92,200 yuan/metal ton, with a 2 - year CAGR of 5.57%; Xingye's tin production cost was about 43,700 yuan/ton, with a year - on - year growth rate of - 27.78% [9]. Myanmar (Wa State) - In the long - term, as mining continues, the open - pit tin mines in Myanmar are shifting to underground mining, resulting in higher costs and lower ore grades. Currently, low ore grades (down to 1% - 2%, some as low as 0.8%), shortages of supplies, and a 30% physical tax are pushing up the cost of tin ore mining [10][12]. Indonesia - Indonesia is the world's second - largest tin - reserve country. PT Timah, the largest tin company in Indonesia, has seen a decline in tin ore production in recent years. The cash cost of tin ingots has decreased from about 157,032 yuan/ton in 2022 to 124,390 yuan/ton in 2024, but it is still relatively high compared to low - cost production areas in Africa [16]. Congo (Kinshasa) - The Bisie tin mine is the largest core mine in Congo (Kinshasa) and one of the highest - grade tin mines in the world, with significant low - cost characteristics. Although the ore grade has declined in recent years, it remains above 3%. The AISC cost has increased in the past two years, with a 4 - year CAGR of about 2.92% [22]. Australia (Renison Project) - Renison is the only operating tin mine in Australia. In 2024, its tin production was 11,006 tons, accounting for about 2.94% of the global total. The AISC cost in 2024 was about 140,778 yuan/metal ton, with a 3 - year CAGR of about 9.57%, but it is still significantly lower than the current tin price [27]. South America - Peru's San Rafael tin mine has a cash cost of about 40,931 yuan/metal ton, with a 3 - year CAGR of about - 1.61%. Brazil's Pitinga tin - niobium - tantalum polymetallic mine, after including niobium - tantalum ore costs, has a cash cost of about 108,760 yuan/metal ton, with a 3 - year CAGR of about + 19.50% [30]. Global Cost Comparison - Most regions around the world are experiencing cost increases, except for Peru, Indonesia (tin ingots), and some Chinese companies. High - cost tin mines are mainly in Asian regions such as Myanmar, while low - cost tin mines are in African regions such as Congo (Kinshasa), Australian regions, and South American regions such as Brazil and Peru [34]. Tin Price and Cost Relationship - According to ITA predictions, by 2027, the 50th - percentile, 75th - percentile, and 90th - percentile lines of the global tin ore full - cost curve will be slightly above $20,000/ton, about $25,000/ton, and about $33,800/ton respectively. As of the end of January 2026, the LME 3M tin price has reached about $55,000/ton, higher than the full cost of 95% of tin mines, providing profit margins for most tin mines. The tin price has deviated from the 90th - percentile cost, indicating a shift in the pricing logic [37].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the easing of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations support tin prices. The expectation of future interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, along with the initial agreement in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, suggest that the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar may not change the tight supply - demand situation. The Shanghai tin price is expected to be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to build long positions after price pullbacks, paying attention to support and resistance levels [3]. - The negative basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin are due to high tin prices suppressing downstream demand with only rigid procurement. Given the Fed's future policies and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, investors are advised to focus on short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai tin basis. For LME tin, the positive (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are in a reasonable range, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - Shanghai tin basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and basically within a reasonable range. LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are positive and in a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is at the 50% quantile of the past five years [9][10]. - The inventory of refined tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared to last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin on the London Metal Exchange increased compared to last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared to last week [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrates is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin mines. The production (import) volume of domestic tin mines in October increased (increased) month - on - month. The production volume of recycled tin in China in October may increase month - on - month [19][21][24]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in China increased compared to last week. The production (inventory) volume of refined tin in China in October increased (decreased) month - on - month, and the import volume may increase month - on - month [26][28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of tin solder in China in October. The import (export) volume of solder strips in China in October may decrease (decrease) month - on - month [35][38]. - The production volume of tin - plated sheets in China in October may increase month - on - month, while the import and export volumes may decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China increased compared to last week [41][43][46].