南华期货有色金属锡2026年度展望 ——物以锡为贵 傅小燕 （投资咨询证号：Z0002675） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年12月26日 第一章 观点概要 摘要： 价格趋势预测： 全年宽幅震荡，整体重心上移。上半年伴随供给修复与AI泡沫或承压运行；下半年随宏 观宽松落地与基本面紧平衡共振上行。 供给端：缅甸，印尼，刚果金三大供应区不确定性均较大，上半年供应或较今年更强，但伴随缅甸雨 季，刚果金战乱发酵，印尼配额限制等因素持续影响，下半年供应端扰动持续。 需求端： 消费电子进入复苏周期；AI权重较小，但驱动较强；其余传统耗锡板块维持平稳增长。 预测区间：我们预计2026年SHFE沪锡主力合约核心波动区间在27.5-40万元/吨，伦锡波动区间在38500- 56000美元/吨。 风险提示：全球宏观环境，AI泡沫，供给端扰动等不可抗力。 第二阶段（5月下旬-9月）：负反馈显现，宏观退潮下的深度回调。 5月下旬起，行情进入长达4个月的 调整期。一方面，前期飙升的锡价对下游焊料企业的采购意愿形成了显著的抑制作用，高价负反馈导致现货 成交低迷，社会库存去化受阻。另一方面，印尼RKAB审批逐 ...

证券研究报告 公司研究 / 首次覆盖 2025 年 12 月 22 日 ABB 合资工厂产能持续爬坡，储能业务 快速增长 电力设备 报告原因： | 买入（首次评级） | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 市场数据： 2025 | 年 | 12 月 | 19 日 | | 收盘价（元） | | | 37.84 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 57.70/22.74 | | --- | --- | | 市净率 | 4.3 | | 股息率（分红/股价） | 0.40 | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 7,143 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,890/13,140 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据： | | | 2025 | 年 | 09 | 月 30 | | 日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | | | | | | | 8.9 | | | 资产负债率% | | | | | | 64.95 | | | | 总股本/流通 | | ...

需求端，正处于新旧动能转换阶段。以消费电子为代表的传统领域步入季节性淡季，相关焊料需求随之 减弱，传统行业的采购基本以刚性需求为主。以人工智能硬件、先进封装为代表的新兴领域展现出结构 性增长潜力，其技术发展提升了单位产品的锡用量，新能源与汽车电子等领域也提供着长期需求支撑， 但这些增量短期内尚不足以完全对冲传统需求的放缓。此外，当前价格水平对下游需求形成一定压制， 部分企业正积极寻求工艺优化与材料替代以控制成本，导致实际消费呈现"有价无量"的态势。 期货市场：国际油价创多年新低市场避险情绪高涨，隔夜伦锡收跌0.34%；最新收盘报40955美元/吨， 下跌140美元，跌幅为0.34%，成交量为886手，持仓量25221万手较前一交易日减少21手；国内方面， 夜盘沪期锡高位运行，尾盘大幅收涨，沪锡主力合约2601最新收报323220元/吨，涨210元/吨，涨幅为 0.07%；伦敦金属交易所（LME）12月16日伦锡库存量报3815吨，较前一交易日库存量增加20吨。 长江锡业网讯：今日沪锡期货市场全线高开，主力月2601合约开盘报323630涨620元，9：20分沪锡主力 2601合约报326120涨3110元；沪 ...

泉果旭源三年持有期混合A（016709）成立日期2022年10月18日，最新规模163.29亿。今年以来收益 40%，同类排名1646/8100；近一年收益35.85%，同类排名1945/8065；成立以来收益5.11%。 泉果旭源三年持有期混合A（016709）基金经理为赵诣。 截至发稿，赵诣累计任职时间8年275天，现任基金资产总规模190.69亿元，任职期间最佳基金回报 329.41%， 任职期间最差基金回报1.86%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 责任编辑：小浪快报 12月18日，威腾电气跌5.11%，截至发稿，报38.25元/股，成交2.39亿元，换手率3.24%，总市值72.21亿 元。 资料显示，威腾电气集团股份有限公司位于江苏省扬中市新坝科技园南自路1号，成立日期2004年1月7 日，上市日期2021年7月7日，公司主营业务涉及母线产品的研发、制造及销售。主营业务收入构成为： 光伏新材-光伏焊带46.68%，配电设备-高低压母线25.2 ...

投资者关系活动类别 特定对象调研 ☐分析师会议 ☐媒体采访 ☐业绩说明会 ☐新闻发布会 ☐路演活动 ☐现场参观 ☐其他（请文字说明其他活动内容） 参与单位名称及人员姓名 东吴证券：赵桢宇；中信证券股份有限公司：钟其荣；君义投资： 白璐；富邦华一银行有限公司：杨宜臻；进门财经：丁媛、王璐瑶、 黄天晴 时间 2025年12月4日 14:30-17:00 地点 公司会议室 上市公司接待人员姓名 董事、副总经理、董事会秘书 林敏女士 董事、财务负责人 蒋雪寒女士 证券事务代表 秦慧芸女士 投资者关系活动主要内容 介绍 一、参观公司展厅、实验室 二、公司简单介绍基本情况 三、投资者交流主要内容： 1、近期公司增资上海宇邦逢君云储科技有限公司，请问数据中 心热管理市场的容量空间如何，上海宇邦逢君在这个领域有没有产 品布局？ 答：数据中心热管理市场具有较为广阔的市场空间，根据中国 信通院发布的《智算中心液冷产业全景研究报告(2025年)》显示， 2024年液冷市场达184亿元，同比增长66.1%，预计2029年将突破1300 亿元。上海宇邦逢君云储科技有限公司的产品涵盖风冷、液冷等技 术广泛应用的储能、商用车以及服务器、数 ...

Core Insights - On November 14, Weiteng Electric experienced a decline of 0.45% with a trading volume of 218 million yuan, indicating a negative net financing buy of 10.31 million yuan for the day [1] - As of September 30, Weiteng Electric reported a revenue of 2.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.40%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 13.6632 million yuan, down 87.47% year-on-year [2] Financing and Margin Trading - On November 14, Weiteng Electric had a financing buy of 16.9156 million yuan, with a total financing balance of 487 million yuan, accounting for 7.37% of its market capitalization, which is above the 70th percentile of the past year [1] - The margin trading data shows that there were no shares sold or repaid on November 14, with a margin balance of 0 yuan, indicating a high level of margin trading activity [1] Shareholder and Dividend Information - As of September 30, the number of Weiteng Electric's shareholders increased by 41.51% to 7,592, while the average circulating shares per person decreased by 15.89% to 24,716 shares [2] - Since its A-share listing, Weiteng Electric has distributed a total of 106 million yuan in dividends, with 86.554 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]

Group 1 - The core point of the news is that Weiteng Electric's stock price has dropped by 5.28% to 35.67 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 141 million CNY and a turnover rate of 2.06%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 6.693 billion CNY [1] - Weiteng Electric, established on January 7, 2004, and listed on July 7, 2021, is primarily engaged in the research, manufacturing, and sales of busbar products. The main revenue composition includes: photovoltaic new materials (photovoltaic welding strips) 46.68%, distribution equipment (high and low voltage busbars) 25.26%, energy storage systems 21.46%, and others [1] Group 2 - From the perspective of the top ten circulating shareholders, a fund under Quanguo Fund holds a position in Weiteng Electric. The Quanguo Xuyuan Three-Year Holding Period Mixed A Fund (016709) reduced its holdings by 463,500 shares in the third quarter, now holding 2.9007 million shares, accounting for 1.55% of circulating shares. The estimated floating loss today is approximately 5.7723 million CNY [2] - The Quanguo Xuyuan Three-Year Holding Period Mixed A Fund, managed by Zhao Yi, was established on October 18, 2022, with a latest scale of 16.329 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 46.71%, ranking 1163 out of 8145 in its category, while the one-year return is 30.57%, ranking 1935 out of 8059 [2]

Core Points - Witten Electric's stock price dropped by 5.05% to 37.42 CNY per share, with a trading volume of 1.04 billion CNY and a turnover rate of 1.45%, resulting in a total market capitalization of 7.022 billion CNY [1] Company Overview - Witten Electric Group Co., Ltd. is located in Yangzhong City, Jiangsu Province, and was established on January 7, 2004. The company went public on July 7, 2021. Its main business involves the research, development, manufacturing, and sales of busbar products [1] - The revenue composition of Witten Electric is as follows: - Photovoltaic new materials - Photovoltaic welding strips: 46.68% - Power distribution equipment - High and low voltage busbars: 25.26% - Energy storage systems: 21.46% - Others (supplementary): 2.27% - Power distribution equipment - Medium and low voltage complete equipment: 2.05% - Others: 1.63% - Power distribution equipment - Copper and aluminum products: 0.49% - Photovoltaic new materials - Aluminum frames: 0.16% [1] Shareholder Information - Among the top ten circulating shareholders of Witten Electric, a fund under Quanguo Fund holds a position. The fund, Quanguo Xuyuan Three-Year Holding Period Mixed A (016709), reduced its holdings by 463,500 shares in the third quarter, now holding 2.9007 million shares, which accounts for 1.55% of the circulating shares. The estimated floating loss today is approximately 5.7723 million CNY [2] - Quanguo Xuyuan Three-Year Holding Period Mixed A (016709) was established on October 18, 2022, with a latest scale of 16.329 billion CNY. Year-to-date returns are 47.03%, ranking 1176 out of 8147 in its category; the one-year return is 29.26%, ranking 1954 out of 8056; and since inception, the return is 10.39% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, has led to an expectation of tight supply and demand. However, due to the hawkish shift in the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, and tight liquidity, the Shanghai tin price may be adjusted. It is recommended that investors try short - selling the main contract at high levels with a light position in the short term, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin and London tin [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - The Shanghai tin basis is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both within the reasonable range. This is due to the slow resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, leading to an expected tight supply, and a decline in the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad. However, with the hawkish shift in the Fed's future interest - rate cut expectations, the strengthening of the US dollar index, tight liquidity, and the arrival of the domestic traditional consumption off - season, investors are advised to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9]. - The LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are positive and within the reasonable range. The Shanghai - London tin price ratio is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is because the manufacturing PMI in Europe and the US in October was weak, and the inventory of refined tin in the LME is increasing but still at a relatively low level. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads [11]. - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange has increased compared to last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China has decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin in the LME has increased compared to last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad has decreased compared to last week [13]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin ore has decreased, indicating an expected tight supply of domestic tin ore [19][20]. - The production (import) volume of domestic tin ore in November may increase month - on - month. Reasons include the closure of 1000 illegal tin mines in Bangka Belitung by the Indonesian president, the commissioning of the second concentrator of the Uis mine in Namibia, the resumption of mining in Wa State, Myanmar, the phased resumption of the Bisie tin mine in the DRC, and the suspension of the transit export of Myanmar tin ore through Thailand [22][24]. - The production volume of recycled tin in China in November may increase month - on - month [25][26]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has decreased (remained flat) compared to last week; the production (inventory) volume of refined tin in China in November may increase (decrease) month - on - month [29]. - The import volume of refined tin in China in November may increase month - on - month. The export volume of refined tin from Indonesia is expected to increase, which may lead to an increase in China's refined tin imports [30][32]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of tin solder in China in November [36]. - The import (export) volume of solder strips in China in November may decrease (increase) month - on - month [37][39]. - The production (import, export) volume of tin - plated sheets in China in November may decrease (decrease, increase) month - on - month [40]. - The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China has decreased compared to last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may affect the demand for tin [42][44].

Core Viewpoint - Witten Electric's stock has shown significant volatility, with a year-to-date increase of 72.95%, but recent declines in the short term raise concerns about its performance [1][2]. Company Overview - Witten Electric Group Co., Ltd. was established on January 7, 2004, and went public on July 7, 2021. The company is located in Jiangsu Province and specializes in the research, manufacturing, and sales of busbar products [1]. - The main revenue sources for Witten Electric are: photovoltaic new materials (photovoltaic welding strips) 46.68%, power distribution equipment (high and low voltage busbars) 25.26%, energy storage systems 21.46%, and other categories [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Witten Electric reported a revenue of 2.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 5.40%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 13.6632 million yuan, down 87.47% year-on-year [2]. - Since its A-share listing, Witten Electric has distributed a total of 106 million yuan in dividends, with 86.554 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, Witten Electric had 7,592 shareholders, an increase of 41.51% from the previous period. The average circulating shares per person decreased by 15.89% to 24,716 shares [2]. - Among the top ten circulating shareholders, the fund "Quanguo Xuyuan Three-Year Holding Period Mixed A" holds 2.9007 million shares, a decrease of 463,500 shares compared to the previous period [3].