1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar and the easing of Sino-US economic and trade negotiations support tin prices. The expectation of future interest rate cuts and the halt of balance - sheet reduction by the Fed, along with the initial agreement in Sino - US economic and trade negotiations, suggest that the resumption of tin mines in Myanmar may not change the tight supply - demand situation. The Shanghai tin price is expected to be cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to build long positions after price pullbacks, paying attention to support and resistance levels [3]. - The negative basis and monthly spread of Shanghai tin are due to high tin prices suppressing downstream demand with only rigid procurement. Given the Fed's future policies and the slow resumption of tin mines in Myanmar, investors are advised to focus on short - term, light - position, low - buying arbitrage opportunities for the Shanghai tin basis. For LME tin, the positive (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are in a reasonable range, and it is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [9][10]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 First Part: Spread and Inventory Situation - Shanghai tin basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and basically within a reasonable range. LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contract spreads are positive and in a reasonable range, and the Shanghai - London tin price ratio is at the 50% quantile of the past five years [9][10]. - The inventory of refined tin on the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased compared to last week; the social inventory of tin ingots in China decreased compared to last week; the inventory of refined tin on the London Metal Exchange increased compared to last week; the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad decreased compared to last week [12]. 3.2 Second Part: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrates is oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin mines. The production (import) volume of domestic tin mines in October increased (increased) month - on - month. The production volume of recycled tin in China in October may increase month - on - month [19][21][24]. - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in China increased compared to last week. The production (inventory) volume of refined tin in China in October increased (decreased) month - on - month, and the import volume may increase month - on - month [26][28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips decreased month - on - month, which may lead to an increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of tin solder in China in October. The import (export) volume of solder strips in China in October may decrease (decrease) month - on - month [35][38]. - The production volume of tin - plated sheets in China in October may increase month - on - month, while the import and export volumes may decrease month - on - month. The capacity utilization rate of lead - acid batteries in China increased compared to last week [41][43][46].

Report Title - "Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys" [1] Core Viewpoint - The easing of Sino-US trade relations and the decline in domestic social inventories have made aluminum prices cautiously bullish [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Summary by Section Alumina - **Supply Side** - Domestic: The construction of China National Aluminum's Guixi Nadou sedimentary bauxite mine has started, with an expected annual output of 800,000 physical tons. The first phase of the bauxite recycling project in Qingzhen City has started producing 440,000 tons of aluminum concentrate per year. The production of domestic bauxite in October may increase month-on-month. Several alumina projects are under construction or in production, which may increase the domestic alumina production in October [3][18][26] - Overseas: The third-phase project of Nanshan Aluminum's Bintan Alumina in Indonesia with a capacity of 1 million tons started trial production in early May and is expected to reach full production in 2025. The overseas alumina production in October may increase, and the domestic alumina imports in October may increase month-on-month [3][35] - **Demand Side** - The matching surplus of China's alumina operating capacity compared to electrolytic aluminum in September has expanded month-on-month [3][26] - **Inventory** - The total inventory of China's alumina has increased compared to last week, including the inventory in ports, warehouses, and factories [15][17][27] - **Price and Cost** - The alumina basis is positive, and the monthly spread is negative, both within a reasonable range. The near-far month contract closing prices show a Contango structure. The average daily full production cost of China's alumina is about 2,850 yuan/ton [12][22][14] - **Investment Strategy** - The domestic alumina supply and demand are expected to be loose, but production losses may limit the downside of alumina prices. Investors are advised to wait for the price to rise to a high level to lay out short positions, paying attention to the support level around 2,600 - 2,800 and the resistance level around 3,300 - 3,600 [4] Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply Side** - Domestic: The first phase of the energy-saving renovation project of Guangxi Baise Guangtou Yinhai Electrolytic Aluminum's second phase has started production, and the second phase of Inner Mongolia Huomei Hongjun Aluminum's green power aluminum project is expected to be put into production in December 2025. The domestic electrolytic aluminum production in October may increase month-on-month. The import volume in October may also increase month-on-month due to the restart of overseas capacities [5][56][60] - Overseas: Several overseas electrolytic aluminum projects are restarting or expanding production [60] - **Demand Side** - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has remained flat compared to last week. The production of remelted rods (aluminum rods) in October may increase month-on-month [5] - **Inventory** - The social inventory of China's electrolytic aluminum has decreased compared to last week, and the inventory in bonded areas, LME, and COMEX has also decreased [45][46] - **Price and Cost** - The Shanghai aluminum basis is negative and at a relatively low level, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The theoretical weighted average full cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum is about 16,080 yuan/ton [39][41][56] - **Investment Strategy** - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and the increasing proportion of domestic electrolytic aluminum molten aluminum production leading to a decline in inventories may make Shanghai aluminum prices cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when the price drops, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [6] Aluminum Alloys - **Supply Side** - Domestic: The production of domestic scrap aluminum in October may increase month-on-month, while the import volume may decrease. The production of primary (recycled, ADC12) aluminum alloys in October may decrease month-on-month [7][70][81] - Overseas: The competition for overseas scrap aluminum procurement is fierce, and the export of scrap aluminum to China has declined [7] - **Demand Side** - The capacity utilization rate of China's downstream leading aluminum processing enterprises has decreased compared to last week [90] - **Inventory** - The social inventory of China's aluminum alloys has decreased compared to last week, and the raw material (finished product) inventory of recycled aluminum alloy enterprises has also decreased [86][81] - **Price and Cost** - The basis of cast aluminum alloy is positive and at a relatively high level, and the monthly spread is negative and within a reasonable range. The daily full production cost of China's primary aluminum alloy is 20,920 yuan/ton, and that of recycled aluminum alloy ADC12 is 20,700 yuan/ton [64][75][78] - **Investment Strategy** - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and the end of balance sheet reduction, the preliminary agreement reached in Sino-US economic and trade negotiations, and the expected tight supply and demand of domestic scrap aluminum may make aluminum alloy prices cautiously bullish. Investors are advised to lay out long positions when the price drops or try to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys with a light position in the short term, paying attention to the support and resistance levels [8]

Report Title - Nonferrous Metals Weekly - Alumina, Electrolytic Aluminum, and Aluminum Alloys [1] Report Date and Authors - Date: October 22, 2025 - Authors: Wang Wenhu, Dong Xiaoni, Zhang Lei from Hongyuan Futures' Metal Research Team [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Tariff uncertainties and a slow decline in domestic social inventories may cause aluminum prices to fluctuate. For alumina, the supply - demand is expected to be loose, but production losses may limit price drops. For electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys, uncertainties in Sino - US trade tariffs exist, but expectations of Fed rate cuts and reduced tapering, along with other factors, may lead to prices first weakening and then strengthening [2][4][5][6] Summary by Section 1. Alumina - **Supply - side factors**: New projects like the bauxite recycling in Qingzhen, the spherical alumina project of Yishitong, and the alumina projects in Guangxi and Indonesia are expected to increase production in October. Domestic bauxite production may increase while imports decrease due to new bauxite mines' production [3] - **Cost and price**: The average full - cost of alumina production is around 2850 yuan/ton, with regional differences. The near - far month contract prices show a Contango structure [22] - **Inventory**: The total inventory of alumina in China increased last week, with an increase in the warehouse and factory inventories of the Shanghai Futures Exchange and a decrease in port inventories [15] - **Investment strategy**: Due to the expected loose supply - demand but limited price decline space, investors are advised to short at high prices and pay attention to support and resistance levels [4] 2. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Supply - side factors**: The theoretical weighted average full - cost is about 16150 yuan/ton. Domestic production may increase in October due to new projects, and imports may also rise with the commissioning of overseas projects [5][57] - **Inventory**: Social inventories, bonded area inventories, and inventories in major exchanges all decreased last week [46] - **Investment strategy**: Considering tariff uncertainties, Fed policies, and production trends, investors are advised to go long on dips and pay attention to support and resistance levels for both SHFE and LME aluminum [5] 3. Aluminum Alloys - **Supply - side factors**: Overseas waste aluminum exports to China may decline, but domestic waste aluminum production may increase. The production of primary and secondary aluminum alloys may decrease in October [6][83] - **Cost and profit**: The full - cost of primary and secondary aluminum alloys is 20800 yuan/ton and 20500 yuan/ton respectively, with different profit and capacity utilization trends [6] - **Inventory**: Social inventories and raw material and finished - product inventories of recycled aluminum decreased last week [84][86] - **Investment strategy**: Given tariff uncertainties and supply - demand trends, investors are advised to go long on the spread between electrolytic aluminum and aluminum alloys at low prices and pay attention to support and resistance levels [6] 4. Basis and Spread Analysis - **Alumina**: The basis is positive and within a reasonable range, and the spread is negative. Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [12] - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The SHFE aluminum basis is positive and the spread is negative. The LME aluminum (0 - 3) spread is positive and (3 - 15) is negative. Investors are advised to wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [40][43] - **Aluminum Alloys**: The casting aluminum alloy basis is positive and at a relatively high level, and the spread is negative. Investors are recommended to short the basis at high prices on a short - term and light - position basis. The spread between electrolytic aluminum and casting aluminum alloy futures is positive, and investors are advised to go long on the spread at low prices [67][70]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, along with the uncertainty of whether China and the US will impose additional tariffs, and the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, which may not change the tight supply - demand situation, could lead to wide - range fluctuations in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors mainly wait for price drops to establish long positions, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin at around 260,000 - 265,000 and 290,000 - 300,000 respectively, and those of London tin at around 33,000 - 35,000 and 38,000 - 40,000 respectively [3] Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both basically within a reasonable range. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, the tight domestic tin ore supply - demand situation, and the resumption expectation of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9] - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both basically within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai - London tin price is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, and the decreasing inventory of refined tin in the LME. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [11] - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the social inventory of tin ingots in China, the inventory of refined tin in the LME, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad have all decreased compared to last week [13] Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrates has been oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [19][20] - Multiple factors such as the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia, the commissioning of a new plant in Namibia, the resumption of mines in Myanmar and Congo, and the suspension of tin ore transit exports in Thailand may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production and import volume of domestic tin ore in October [22] - The production volume of recycled tin in China in October may increase month - on - month [24] - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has increased (remained flat) compared to last week. Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on its smelting equipment from August 30 for no more than 45 days. The production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase (decrease) month - on - month [28] - The import volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase month - on - month. The new tin smelter in the US and the planned production and export increase in Indonesia are the reasons [29][31] Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in October [35] - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strips in October may decrease month - on - month [38][40] - The production volume of Chinese tin - plated sheets in October may increase month - on - month, while the import and export volumes may decrease month - on - month [43] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese lead - acid batteries has increased compared to last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][46]