宏源期货 金属研究团队 王文虎 （从业资格证号：F03087656，投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019472），TEL：021-51801878 董晓妮 （从业资格证号：F0287405， 投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0017234），TEL：0531-89015080 张 蕾 （从业资格证号：F03086068，投资咨询从业资格证号：Z0019377），TEL：0512-68261540 氧化铝 有色金属周报-氧化铝与电解铝及铝合金 关税不确定性和国内社库缓降或使铝价震荡 2025年10月22日 清镇市铝土矿循环利用项目一期50万吨高硫铝土矿脱硫6月启动投料生产铝精矿44万吨/年，吕梁矿业旗 下杨家沟铝土矿(年产能为60万吨，地下采矿)于8月底投产，使国产和澳洲(几内亚)铝土矿价格环比升高(下 降)，或使国内铝土矿10月生产(进口)量环比增加(减少)； 壹石通的重庆年产9,800吨导热用球形氧化铝项目或于25年9月底正式投产，广西防城港25年3月开始建 设2条120万吨氧化铝产能且总工期为8个月，或使中国氧化铝10月生产量环比增加，中国氧化铝较电解铝9月 运行产能过剩量环比扩大； 南山铝业旗下印尼宾坦氧化铝三期项 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - The expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, along with the uncertainty of whether China and the US will impose additional tariffs, and the resumption of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar, which may not change the tight supply - demand situation, could lead to wide - range fluctuations in Shanghai tin prices. It is recommended that investors mainly wait for price drops to establish long positions, and pay attention to the support and resistance levels of Shanghai tin at around 260,000 - 265,000 and 290,000 - 300,000 respectively, and those of London tin at around 33,000 - 35,000 and 38,000 - 40,000 respectively [3] Summary by Directory Part 1: Spread and Inventory Situation - The basis of Shanghai tin is positive and the monthly spread is negative, both basically within a reasonable range. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, the tight domestic tin ore supply - demand situation, and the resumption expectation of tin mines in Wa State, Myanmar. It is recommended that investors temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities [7][9] - The spread of the LME tin (0 - 3) contract is negative and the (3 - 15) contract spread is positive, both basically within a reasonable range. The ratio of Shanghai - London tin price is lower than the 50% quantile of the past five years. This is due to the expectation of the Fed's future interest rate cuts and halt to balance sheet reduction, and the decreasing inventory of refined tin in the LME. It is recommended to temporarily wait and see for arbitrage opportunities in the spreads of LME tin (0 - 3) and (3 - 15) contracts [11] - The inventory of refined tin in the Shanghai Futures Exchange, the social inventory of tin ingots in China, the inventory of refined tin in the LME, and the total inventory of refined tin at home and abroad have all decreased compared to last week [13] Part 2: Mid - upstream Supply Situation - The daily processing fee of domestic tin concentrates has been oscillating downward, indicating a tight supply expectation of domestic tin ore [19][20] - Multiple factors such as the closure of illegal tin mines in Indonesia, the commissioning of a new plant in Namibia, the resumption of mines in Myanmar and Congo, and the suspension of tin ore transit exports in Thailand may lead to a month - on - month increase in the production and import volume of domestic tin ore in October [22] - The production volume of recycled tin in China in October may increase month - on - month [24] - The capacity utilization rate of refined tin in Yunnan and China (Jiangxi) has increased (remained flat) compared to last week. Yunnan Tin will conduct maintenance on its smelting equipment from August 30 for no more than 45 days. The production (inventory) volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase (decrease) month - on - month [28] - The import volume of Chinese refined tin in October may increase month - on - month. The new tin smelter in the US and the planned production and export increase in Indonesia are the reasons [29][31] Part 3: Downstream Demand Situation - The daily processing fee of photovoltaic solder strips has decreased month - on - month, which may lead to a month - on - month increase in the capacity utilization rate (inventory) of Chinese tin solder in October [35] - The import (export) volume of Chinese solder strips in October may decrease month - on - month [38][40] - The production volume of Chinese tin - plated sheets in October may increase month - on - month, while the import and export volumes may decrease month - on - month [43] - The capacity utilization rate of Chinese lead - acid batteries has increased compared to last week. Since tin is an important additive in lead - acid batteries, this may also affect the demand for tin [44][46]