1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market's fundamentals weakened marginally last week. With the LME nickel inventory increasing by 2.47% to 209,100 tons, the real - world demand is not optimistic. If there are no new disruptions on the supply side in the short term, nickel prices may fluctuate around the cost line [3][4]. - The stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. However, this is mainly due to the settlement and pick - up of previous futures contracts, and the subsequent inventory reduction speed may slow down. The scheduled stainless - steel production for August has increased month - on - month, and the short - term supply remains high, with prices likely to fluctuate within a certain range [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: - The spot price of electrolytic nickel as of August 4 decreased by 1,950 yuan/ton to 121,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,750 yuan/ton to 122,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41%, and its premium increased by 200 to 2,350 yuan/ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%, and its premium decreased by 50 to 350 yuan/ton [16]. - The LME nickel price as of August 4 decreased by 125 dollars/ton to 15,105 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by 7.72 dollars/ton to - 200.74 dollars/ton [21]. - The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 783 tons to 21,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. The LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 209,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47%. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 795 tons to 39,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. The East China social inventory decreased by 1,094 tons to 13,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.38%, and the Shanghai Free Trade Zone inventory increased by 500 tons to 5,200 tons [46]. - **Supply**: - As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 32,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.14% and a year - on - year increase of 13.69% [43]. - As of June 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 10,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.01%. The monthly import volume was 17,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 132.29%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative refined nickel export volume was 91,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 107.42%, and the cumulative import volume was 94,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 127.16% [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of June 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel decreased by 948 dollars/ton to 13,025 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.78% [51]. - As of June 2025, the production cost of electrowon nickel from integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte increased by 1,066 and decreased by 3,629 yuan/ton respectively to 121,953 yuan/ton and 129,163 yuan/ton. The profit margins increased by 0.2 and 3.5 percentage points respectively to - 1.4% and - 6.9% [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production and Demand**: - As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 29,100 nickel tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.3%. Recently, some precursor factories have restocking needs, and their price acceptance has also increased, leading to a recovery in the supply of sulfuric acid nickel [58]. - As of June 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly import volume was 13,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.01%. The monthly export volume was 782.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.02% [58]. - **Profit Margin**: As of August 4, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag increased by 3.5, 1.6, 3.9, and 1.5 respectively to 1.5%, - 1.7%, 5.6%, and - 2% [63]. Ferronickel - **Production**: - As of July 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 24,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. In Indonesia, the nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.24 million tons to 134,400 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.73% [70]. - Many domestic ferronickel enterprises are operating at reduced loads or are shut down for maintenance [70]. - **Inventory and Profit**: - As of July 31, the national main - region nickel pig iron inventory (metal tons) increased by 182 tons to 33,400 nickel tons (average grade 11.72%), a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [77]. - As of August 4, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian remained flat at 1,031 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin remained flat at - 11.25% [77]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Performance**: - Last week, the stainless - steel main contract ss2509 opened at 13,045 yuan/ton, closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 13,130 yuan/ton and a low of 12,760 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.46% [81]. - As of August 4, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation increased by 100 to 13,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [81]. - **Inventory and Production**: - As of August 1, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1,111,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. The 300 - series inventory increased by 0.67 million tons to 676,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. The stainless - steel inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down this week [84]. - As of July 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.14 million tons to 3,230,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%. The 300 - series production decreased by 3.58 million tons to 1,708,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05% [87]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of August 1, the cash cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in China decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 13,058 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils increased by 0.88 percentage points to - 3.54% [92]. - The high - nickel pig iron price was weakly stable last week, and the chromium - iron price remained stable, so the stainless - steel cost support still exists [92].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On July 24, Shanghai nickel showed strong performance, with the 2509 contract hitting a recent high of 124,660 and closing at 124,360, up 0.66%. The total open interest of the index increased by 4,395 to 178,067 lots. The oversupply situation of nickel has not changed, and price pressure still exists [7]. - With the gradual approval of additional RKAB quotas in Indonesia, the supply of nickel ore will be abundant, and there is room for a decline in premiums and ore prices. The price of nickel iron has rebounded slightly to 909 yuan per nickel point, but most smelters in Indonesia are still at a loss at this price. After the conversion to high - grade nickel matte, the reduction is limited, and the support for prices is also limited. Stainless steel is in the traditional off - season with high inventories, making it difficult to effectively support the raw material end. The weak atmosphere of nickel iron and stainless steel also drags down the nickel ore end [7]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate has continued to rise slightly to 27,260. It is expected to stop falling and stabilize temporarily under the support of low inventories in nickel salt factories and the rigid replenishment demand of precursors. Overall, the fundamentals of nickel have not changed significantly. Although the performance of the industrial chain has slightly improved recently with the price rebound, it remains weak. There is an expectation of weakening support from the ore end. In the short term, macro factors support the temporary strong performance of Shanghai nickel, but the rebound space should be viewed with caution [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - On July 24, the 2509 contract of Shanghai nickel refreshed its recent high, and the index's total open interest increased. The nickel market's oversupply pattern persists, and price pressure is still present [7]. - As additional RKAB quotas in Indonesia are approved, nickel ore supply will be loose, and there is a possibility of a decline in premiums and ore prices. The price of nickel iron has rebounded slightly, but most Indonesian smelters are still in the red. The reduction after the conversion to high - grade nickel matte is limited, and the support for prices is weak. Stainless steel is in the off - season with high inventories, unable to support the raw material end effectively. The weak situation of nickel iron and stainless steel also affects the nickel ore market [7]. - The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate has risen slightly and is expected to stabilize. Overall, the nickel fundamentals have not changed much. Although the industrial chain has shown some improvement with the price rebound, it is still weak, and the support from the ore end may weaken. In the short term, macro factors support the strong performance of Shanghai nickel, but the rebound space needs careful consideration [7]. 3.2 Industry News - The Secretary - General of the Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that Indonesia's actual nickel ore production in 2025 was only 120 million tons, while the approved RKAB quota from January to June was 364.1 million tons, about three times the actual output. The low production was mainly due to the rainy season in major mining areas. Indonesia also imported 4.6 million tons of nickel ore from the Philippines in the first half of the year. Since January 2025, the cost pressure on Indonesia's nickel industry has been rising due to policies and taxes. The APNI is formulating ESG regulations to enhance the industry's international reputation [8][10]. - Bulgaria has launched the largest operating battery energy storage system in the EU, with a capacity of 124 MW/496.2 MWh. The project was developed by Advance Green Energy AD and completed in six months [10]. - A research team in Turkey has developed a TOPCon solar cell using nickel contact with almost no silver, which significantly reduces silver consumption while maintaining high efficiency. This innovation is expected to reduce production costs and improve the sustainability and scalability of solar cell manufacturing [10]. - Renewable energy storage company Apatura has obtained planning permission for a 100 - MW battery energy storage system project in Scotland. This is the tenth approved project in the past 17 months, bringing the total approved storage capacity to over 1.6 GW. The project is expected to create jobs and help Scotland achieve its energy goals [10].