【现货】据Mysteel，截至1月28日，无锡宏旺304冷轧价格14500元/吨，日环比持平；佛山宏旺304冷轧 价格14300元/吨，日环比下跌50元/吨；基差205元/吨，日环比上涨75元/吨。 【原料】镍矿方面，印尼地区矿山出货有限，旧配额部分矿山MOMS系统审核未能通过，新配额ESDM 审批缓慢，镍矿升水大幅拉涨至28-32美元/湿吨。高镍生铁市场询单冷清，供方一口价报价多在1080- 1100元/镍(舱底含税)附近，长协报价多在升水10-20，市场低价资源较少；铬铁现货资源流通较少，叠 加铬铁供应增量放缓，铬铁零售价格仍较坚挺。 【供应】据Mysteel统计，12月国内43家不锈钢厂粗钢产量326.05万吨，月环比减少23.26万吨，减幅 6.7%，同比减少5.3%；300系174.72万吨，月环比减少1.45万吨，减幅0.8%，同比减少5.9%。1月不锈钢 粗钢预计排产340.65万吨，月环比增加4.48%，同比增加19.05%；其中300系176.32万吨，月环比增加 0.92%，同比增加12.58%。节前钢厂加大减产力度，近期多有钢厂减停产消息传出。 【库存】社会库存转为小幅累积，仓单维持趋势 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel price support is enhanced, but the upward space depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies. The previous trading logic of the nickel futures was the pressure of oversupply and the expected commissioning of hydrometallurgical projects. The Indonesian news has weakened the confidence of short - sellers, and short - covering has led to a recovery in nickel prices. The fundamentals of refined nickel have shifted from strong supply and weak demand to weak supply and demand, with a slowdown in the inventory accumulation rate. However, the expected increase in the supply of low - cost hydrometallurgical paths in the long - term still exists, which restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices [3]. - The fundamental contradiction of stainless steel is not prominent, and attention should be paid to the disturbance of Indonesian policy news. Indonesian quota and resource tax policies increase the uncertainty of ferronickel costs. If the quota policy is implemented, it is expected to turn the contradiction of nickel element oversupply into a shortage. The implementation of the resource tax still depends on the pricing model of associated resources in Indonesia, and it will moderately increase the cost. The fundamentals of stainless steel show a slight oversupply, with a good bottom safety margin, but the upward driving force depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [3][4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 News Analysis - The Indonesian government has urged enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget, and the market rumor is that Indonesia hopes to cut the nickel ore quota to 2.5 billion tons. According to calculations, the nickel ore demand in Indonesia from 2024 - 2026 is expected to be 250 million, 280 million, and 300 million tons respectively. A 2.5 - billion - ton quota may lead to a shortage of nickel ore, force smelters to cut production, and turn the expected surplus of primary nickel into a shortage, which will also have a great impact on the existing high inventory. However, the actual implementation remains to be seen [1]. - The Indonesian government may include associated minerals such as cobalt in nickel ore into the tax system. The adjustment of the resource tax on high - grade nickel ore in the first half of the year theoretically increased the smelting cost by about 700 yuan/metal ton. The impact of including cobalt in the tax system on cost depends on the base - price formula for cobalt determined by Indonesia. The cost increase should not be over - estimated. However, it may have a negative impact on pyrometallurgical enterprises and bring uncertainty to the pricing model of low - grade hydrometallurgical ore [2]. 3.2 Market Quotes - Nickel: The short - term support for nickel prices has increased, but the upward space depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies. The fundamentals of refined nickel have shifted from strong supply and weak demand to weak supply and demand, with a slowdown in the inventory accumulation rate. The expected increase in the supply of low - cost hydrometallurgical paths in the long - term restricts the upward elasticity of nickel prices [3]. - Stainless steel: The fundamental contradiction is not prominent. Indonesian policies increase the uncertainty of ferronickel costs. The current supply and demand pattern shows a slight oversupply, with a good bottom safety margin, and the upward driving force depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [3][4]. 3.3 Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: China's social inventory increased by 281 tons to 56,988 tons. Among them, warehouse - receipt inventory increased by 2,352 tons to 37,602 tons, spot inventory decreased by 2,071 tons to 15,416 tons, and bonded - area inventory remained unchanged at 3,970 tons. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,518 tons to 254,550 tons [5]. - New energy: On December 19, the inventory days of upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines of SMM nickel sulfate changed by +1, - 1, and 0 month - on - month to 5, 8, and 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory on December 19 changed by +0.8 month - on - month to 13.1 days; the ternary material inventory on December 18 remained unchanged at 6.9 days [5]. - Ferronickel - stainless steel: On November 30, the SMM ferronickel inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. The SMM stainless steel factory inventory in November was 1.588 million tons, a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 6%/1%. On December 18, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,042,148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01%. Among them, the cold - rolled stainless steel inventory was 610,282 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.5%, and the hot - rolled stainless steel inventory was 431,866 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.73% [5]. 3.4 Market News - On September 12, due to violations of forestry license regulations, the Indonesian Forestry Working Group took over a nickel mining area of over 148 hectares of PT Weda Bay Nickel. The area accounts for 0.3% of the total mining area, and the expected impact on nickel ore production is about 600 metal tons per month [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for copper and nickel imports from Russia [7]. - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies. The sanctions will be lifted once the companies submit a claim plan and provide a claim guarantee until 2025 [7]. - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued Ministerial Decree No. 17 (2025) regarding the procedures for the preparation, submission, and approval of the work plan and budget for mineral and coal mining business activities and the procedures for activity implementation reports [7]. - On October 10, US President Trump announced on social media that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8]. - The Indonesian government has suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses through the OSS platform, targeting projects producing nickel matte, MHP, FeNi, and NPI [8]. - According to SMM news, the safety production inspection in Indonesian industrial parks has affected the short - term production of some nickel hydrometallurgical projects, with an expected impact on production of about 6,000 nickel metal tons in December [10]. - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran prompted investors to raise the probability of a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut in December [10]. - On December 12, the Ministry of Commerce and the General Administration of Customs decided to implement an export license management system for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [10]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association (APNI) revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) will revise the benchmark price formula for nickel ore commodities in early 2026, and will start treating cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [10]. - Market rumors suggest that the Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term nickel price support has strengthened, but the upward space still depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies. The previous trading logic was about excess pressure and wet - process production expectations. Indonesian news has weakened short - sellers' confidence, and there may be a catch - up increase in nickel prices. The fundamentals of refined nickel have shifted from supply - strong and demand - weak to supply - demand weakness, and the excess pressure has been structurally transferred. However, the expectation of increased supply from the low - cost wet - process path in the long - term still exists, limiting the upward elasticity of nickel prices [3]. - The fundamental contradictions of stainless steel are not prominent, and attention should be paid to the disturbances of Indonesian policy news. Indonesian policies increase the uncertainty of nickel - iron costs. If the quota policy is implemented, the excess contradiction of nickel elements may be turned into a shortage. The resource tax implementation depends on the pricing model of associated resources. The stainless steel market is in the off - season, with weak demand and low supply growth, showing a slight excess. The cost of nickel - iron has slightly increased, and the bottom - line safety margin of stainless steel is good, but the upward drive depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [3][4]. Summary According to Related Catalogs News Review - The Indonesian government urged enterprises to resubmit the 2026 RKAB budget, and market news said that Indonesia hopes to cut the nickel ore quota to 2.5 billion tons. This may cause a shortage of ore, reverse the excess expectation of primary nickel to a shortage, but the actual implementation remains to be seen [1]. - Indonesia may include associated minerals such as cobalt in nickel ore into the tax system. The previous adjustment of the resource tax on high - grade nickel ore increased the theoretical smelting cost by about 700 yuan/metal ton, but the cost increase may not be fully passed on. The impact of taxing cobalt on cost depends on the base - price formula, and the impact on cost should not be overestimated, but there are uncertainties for pyrometallurgical and hydrometallurgical enterprises [2]. Market Outlook - Nickel: Short - term price support is enhanced, but the upward space depends on policy implementation. The fundamentals have changed to supply - demand weakness, and attention should be paid to the possibility of hidden restocking at low prices. The expected increase in low - cost wet - process supply in the long - term restricts the upward elasticity [3]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals show a slight excess, and the cost has slightly increased. The bottom - line safety margin is good, but the upward drive depends on the implementation of Indonesian policies [4]. Inventory Tracking - Refined nickel: China's social inventory increased by 281 tons to 56,988 tons, with an increase of 2,352 tons in warehouse receipt inventory, a decrease of 2,071 tons in spot inventory, and no change in bonded - area inventory. LME nickel inventory increased by 1,518 tons to 254,550 tons [5]. - New energy: On December 19, the inventory days of SMM nickel sulfate upstream, downstream, and integrated production lines changed by +1, - 1, 0 month - on - month to 5, 8, 7 days respectively; the precursor inventory changed by +0.8 month - on - month to 13.1 days; the ternary material inventory remained flat at 6.9 days on December 18 [5]. - Nickel - iron - stainless steel: On November 30, SMM nickel - iron inventory was 29,346 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3%. In November, SMM stainless - steel factory inventory was 1.588 million tons, a year - on - month/ month - on - month increase of 6%/1%. On December 18, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1,042,148 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2.01%. Among them, the inventory of cold - rolled stainless steel decreased by 1.5% week - on - week, and that of hot - rolled stainless steel decreased by 2.73% week - on - week [5]. Market News - On September 12, due to violating forestry license regulations, the Indonesian forestry working group took over a more than 148 - hectare nickel - ore mining area of PT Weda Bay Nickel, which is expected to affect the monthly nickel - ore output by about 600 metal tons [6]. - China has suspended an unofficial subsidy for imported copper and nickel from Russia [7]. - On September 22, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources imposed sanctions on 190 mining companies, and the sanctions will be cancelled if the companies submit claim plans and guarantees [7]. - On September 30, the Indonesian Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources issued a ministerial order regarding the RKAB approval process. The approval plan for the next - year's RKAB is expected to be completed by November 15 this year, and there are transitional provisions [8]. - Trump announced on October 10 that he might impose an additional 100% tariff on China from November 1 and implement export controls on "all key software" [8]. - Indonesia has suspended issuing new smelting licenses for certain nickel - related products through the OSS platform [9]. - Due to strengthened safety inspections in Indonesian industrial parks, some nickel - wet - process projects will reduce production in December, affecting the output by about 6,000 nickel - metal tons [11]. - On November 21, the dovish remarks of New York Fed President John Williams and Fed Governor Stephen Miran increased investors' probability of expecting a 25 - basis - point interest - rate cut in December [11]. - On December 12, China's Ministry of Commerce and General Administration of Customs decided to implement export license management for some steel products starting from January 1, 2026 [11]. - The Indonesian Nickel Miners Association revealed that the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources will revise the benchmark - price formula for nickel - ore commodities in early 2026, and may treat cobalt as an independent commodity and levy royalties [11]. - Market news said that the Indonesian government plans to significantly reduce the 2026 nickel - ore production target from 379 million tons to 250 million tons [11]. Key Data Tracking - The table shows the weekly key data tracking of nickel and stainless steel, including futures prices, spot prices, spreads, import profits, etc. For example, the closing price of the main Shanghai nickel contract is 117,180, and the closing price of the main stainless - steel contract is 12,720 [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Nickel: The nickel fundamentals are weak with inventory pressure, but the valuation is at a low level. It is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate at a low level [1][2]. - Stainless steel: The fundamentals of stainless steel are loose, and the cost support is weak. It is expected that the upside space of stainless - steel prices is limited [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Nickel Futures**: On October 23, 2025, for Shanghai nickel futures, the closing prices of different contracts had various changes. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 121150.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan compared to the previous day. The trading volume was 93921.00 hands (+20070), and the open interest was 127005.00 hands (+5694). LME 3 - month nickel had a closing price (electronic - trading) of 15335.00 US dollars/ton, up 195.00 US dollars. The trading volume was 7337.00 hands (+5500) [2]. - **Stainless - steel Futures**: On October 23, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract oscillated upwards. The trading volume was 151385.00 hands (+52175), and the open interest was 166411.00 hands (-13119). The inventory of the previous - period exchange remained flat, and the social inventory of 300 - series stainless steel last week was 621700.00 tons (+2300) [2]. - **Spot Prices**: For nickel, the average price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122150.00 yuan/ton. For stainless steel, the average price of 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) was 13550.00 yuan/ton [2]. - **Inventory Data**: The total inventory of nickel ore at Chinese ports was 1053.00 million wet tons. The total inventory of stainless - steel spot was 925800.00 tons, showing a decrease of 10100.00 tons compared to the previous period [2]. Industry News - Australian Mining Project: Caedmon Mariot of an Australian mining company will conduct a general study and metallurgical test on its Mulga Tank nickel project, which is the largest nickel deposit in Australia with metal reserves exceeding 5 million tons. Western Mining Group has invested 10 million US dollars in the project, and it is expected to become a strategic asset in three to five years [2]. - Indonesian Mining Policy: The Indonesian government is tightening the application process for the Mineral Work Plan and Budget (RKAB) of mining enterprises. Enterprises need to meet administrative and technical requirements, including holding a forest - use license (PPKH) and paying a mine - restoration deposit at least one year before submitting the RKAB application [2]. Market Analysis - **Nickel**: On the supply side, nickel - ore prices were flat, port inventories decreased, nickel - iron plants' losses deepened, domestic and Indonesian nickel - iron production increased in October, and domestic electrolytic - nickel production increased with reduced export profits. On the demand side, ternary production, stainless - steel plant production, and alloy and electroplating demand all increased. In terms of inventory, the inventory of the previous - period exchange and LME decreased, while social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [2]. - **Stainless Steel**: On the supply side, stainless - steel production increased in October, and the production of 300 - series decreased. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. The prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome decreased [2]. Trading Strategies - Nickel: It is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Stainless Steel: It is recommended to short at high prices [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The nickel market's fundamentals weakened marginally last week. With the LME nickel inventory increasing by 2.47% to 209,100 tons, the real - world demand is not optimistic. If there are no new disruptions on the supply side in the short term, nickel prices may fluctuate around the cost line [3][4]. - The stainless - steel social inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the fundamentals have improved marginally. However, this is mainly due to the settlement and pick - up of previous futures contracts, and the subsequent inventory reduction speed may slow down. The scheduled stainless - steel production for August has increased month - on - month, and the short - term supply remains high, with prices likely to fluctuate within a certain range [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Nickel - **Price and Inventory**: - The spot price of electrolytic nickel as of August 4 decreased by 1,950 yuan/ton to 121,250 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.58%. The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 1,750 yuan/ton to 122,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.41%, and its premium increased by 200 to 2,350 yuan/ton. The price of imported nickel decreased by 2,000 yuan/ton to 120,500 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.63%, and its premium decreased by 50 to 350 yuan/ton [16]. - The LME nickel price as of August 4 decreased by 125 dollars/ton to 15,105 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.82%. The LME nickel 0 - 3 spot premium increased by 7.72 dollars/ton to - 200.74 dollars/ton [21]. - The SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 783 tons to 21,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. The LME nickel warehouse receipts increased by 5,000 tons to 209,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.47%. The pure nickel social inventory (including the SHFE) decreased by 795 tons to 39,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.01%. The East China social inventory decreased by 1,094 tons to 13,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 7.38%, and the Shanghai Free Trade Zone inventory increased by 500 tons to 5,200 tons [46]. - **Supply**: - As of July 2025, China's electrolytic nickel monthly output increased by 0.1 million tons to 32,800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.14% and a year - on - year increase of 13.69% [43]. - As of June 2025, China's refined nickel monthly export volume was 10,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 2.01%. The monthly import volume was 17,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.0% and a year - on - year increase of 132.29%. From January to June 2025, China's cumulative refined nickel export volume was 91,800 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 107.42%, and the cumulative import volume was 94,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 127.16% [43]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of June 2025, the average production cost of SMM electrolytic nickel decreased by 948 dollars/ton to 13,025 dollars/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 6.78% [51]. - As of June 2025, the production cost of electrowon nickel from integrated MHP and high - grade nickel matte increased by 1,066 and decreased by 3,629 yuan/ton respectively to 121,953 yuan/ton and 129,163 yuan/ton. The profit margins increased by 0.2 and 3.5 percentage points respectively to - 1.4% and - 6.9% [51]. Sulfuric Acid Nickel - **Production and Demand**: - As of July 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly output increased by 0.43 million tons to 29,100 nickel tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.3%. Recently, some precursor factories have restocking needs, and their price acceptance has also increased, leading to a recovery in the supply of sulfuric acid nickel [58]. - As of June 2025, China's sulfuric acid nickel monthly import volume was 13,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 27.35% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.01%. The monthly export volume was 782.1 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.66% and a year - on - year decrease of 41.02% [58]. - **Profit Margin**: As of August 4, the profit margins of producing sulfuric acid nickel from MHP, nickel beans, high - grade nickel matte, and yellow slag increased by 3.5, 1.6, 3.9, and 1.5 respectively to 1.5%, - 1.7%, 5.6%, and - 2% [63]. Ferronickel - **Production**: - As of July 2025, the national nickel pig iron production (metal content) decreased by 0.11 million tons to 24,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.59%. In Indonesia, the nickel pig iron production decreased by 0.24 million tons to 134,400 nickel tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.73% [70]. - Many domestic ferronickel enterprises are operating at reduced loads or are shut down for maintenance [70]. - **Inventory and Profit**: - As of July 31, the national main - region nickel pig iron inventory (metal tons) increased by 182 tons to 33,400 nickel tons (average grade 11.72%), a month - on - month increase of 0.55% [77]. - As of August 4, the cash production cost of RKEF in Fujian remained flat at 1,031 yuan/nickel point, and the production profit margin remained flat at - 11.25% [77]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Market Performance**: - Last week, the stainless - steel main contract ss2509 opened at 13,045 yuan/ton, closed at 12,840 yuan/ton, with a weekly high of 13,130 yuan/ton and a low of 12,760 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1.46% [81]. - As of August 4, the 304/2B coil - rough edge Wuxi quotation increased by 100 to 13,000 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.78% [81]. - **Inventory and Production**: - As of August 1, the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 0.74 million tons to 1,111,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.66%. The 300 - series inventory increased by 0.67 million tons to 676,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.0%. The stainless - steel inventory has decreased for three consecutive weeks, and the inventory reduction speed has slowed down this week [84]. - As of July 2025, the national stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.14 million tons to 3,230,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.87%. The 300 - series production decreased by 3.58 million tons to 1,708,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.05% [87]. - **Cost and Profit**: - As of August 1, the cash cost of 304 cold - rolled stainless - steel coils in China decreased by 18 yuan/ton to 13,058 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 0.14%. The profit margin of cold - rolled stainless - steel coils increased by 0.88 percentage points to - 3.54% [92]. - The high - nickel pig iron price was weakly stable last week, and the chromium - iron price remained stable, so the stainless - steel cost support still exists [92].