航运日报 | 2025-12-26 市场消息清淡，关注马士基1月下半月第一周价格 市场分析 线上报价方面。 Gemini Cooperation：马士基上海-鹿特丹1月第一周报价1585/2550，1月第二周报价1570/2520；HPL12月下半月价 格1535/2535，1月上半月报价1835/3035. MSC+Premier Alliance：MSC 12月下半月价格1580/2640，1月上半月价格1700/2840；ONE 1月份船期报价 2110/2835；HMM上海-鹿特丹1月上半月船期报价1733/3036; YML 1月上半月船期报价1750/3000. Ocean Alliance：CMA 上海-鹿特丹1月上半月船期报价1859/3293，1月下半月船期报价2635/4345；EMC 12月下半 月1955/3010，1月上半月船期报价2255/3510；OOCL 1月上半月份船期报价1880/3230。 地缘端：以色列国防部长卡茨在一场会议上发表讲话时表示，以色列绝不会完全撤出加沙地带，并强调未来将在 加沙地带内部设立安全区以保护以色列社区。卡茨表示，即使在加沙停火协议进入第二阶段、巴 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The 12 - month contract is expected to oscillate, while the February contract is expected to oscillate with an upward trend [9] - The far - month contracts face the pressure of the Suez Canal's resumption of navigation, and their valuations are likely to be revised down [7] - The delivery settlement price of the December contract is estimated to be between 1600 - 1700 points, and attention should be paid to the actual SCFIS release [4] - The 02 contract is gradually shifting to the real - world trading logic, and the current point of contention is whether the first half of January marks the end of this round of freight rate increases [6] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Prices - As of December 24, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts for the container shipping index (European line) futures was 66,098 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 29,953 lots. The closing prices of EC2602, EC2604, EC2606, EC2608, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1795.80, 1165.00, 1319.00, 1481.00, 1051.10, and 1605.90 respectively [8] 3.2 Spot Prices - On December 19, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1533 dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 1992 dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2846 dollars/FEU. On December 22, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1589.20 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 962.10 points [8] 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - In December, the average weekly capacity for the remaining two weeks was 314,500 TEU, with capacities of 301,000 and 327,900 TEU in weeks 52 and 53 respectively. In January, the average weekly capacity was 304,600 TEU, and in February, it was 284,700 TEU. There were 3 blank sailings and 2 TBNs in January, and 8 TBNs and 3 blank sailings in February [3] - As of December 21, 2025, 250 container ships had been delivered in 2025, with a total capacity of 2.018 million TEU. Among them, 75 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 1.1315 million TEU, and 12 ships of over 17,000 TEU had been delivered, with a total capacity of 253,800 TEU [8] 3.4 Supply Chain - The cease - fire mediation plan for Gaza is progressing, and the Suez Canal is likely to resume operation after the Spring Festival in 2026. The resumption of the Suez Canal means an increase in effective capacity supply and the risk of further depressing freight rates [7] 3.5 Demand and European Economy - Information from various surveys indicates that the cargo volume is gradually recovering [4] - The signing process of long - term agreements by OA and PA alliances has accelerated, with the central price of long - term agreements around 1800 dollars/FEU [6]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - Short - term news boosts oil prices, but long - term inventory pressure limits the rebound space and sustainability of oil prices [2] - Precious metals are supported by the expectation of Fed rate cuts and tight spot supply, showing high volatility [3] - Copper prices are expected to rise in the long - term, supported by demand and inventory factors [4] - Aluminum prices are mainly volatile, with limited industrial contradictions and macro - sentiment dominance [5] - The prices of various industrial products and agricultural products are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, policies, and geopolitical situations, showing different trends of rise, fall, or volatility [6][7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: OPEC + maintains the production plan, short - term news boosts prices, but long - term inventory pressure exists [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is supported by geopolitical risks in the short - term, and supply will be loose in the medium - term; low - sulfur fuel oil supply is abundant [20] - **Asphalt**: Demand in some areas drives inventory reduction, but overall, year - end supply - demand is expected to be loose [21] - **Urea**: Short - term market is strong due to downstream procurement, but long - term supply - demand is expected to be loose [22] - **Methanol**: There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and port inventory may suppress the market [23] - **Pure Benzene**: Price is in a volatile pattern due to supply - demand factors [24] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Cost support is strengthened, and supply - demand is in a tight balance [25] - **Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene**: International oil prices drive futures price rebounds, but spot demand is hard to release [26] - **PVC &烧碱**: PVC is in a low - level range, and烧碱 is in a weak operation [27] - **PX & PTA**: PX price rebounds, PTA is cost - driven, and supply - demand situations vary in the short and medium - term [28] - **Ethylene Glycol**: Supply is marginally improved, but mid - term weakness remains [29] - **Short - Fiber & Bottle - Chip**: Short - fiber price follows raw materials, and bottle - chip is cost - driven with over - capacity pressure [30] Metals - **Precious Metals**: Silver drives the strength of precious metals, and platinum is favored [3] - **Base Metals** - **Copper**: Prices are expected to rise, supported by demand and inventory factors [4] - **Aluminum**: Prices are mainly volatile, with limited industrial contradictions [5] - **Zinc**: Prices are in a range - bound state, with strong bottom support [8] - **Tin**: Prices may have short - term space, but mid - term fundamentals are general [10] - **Manganese Silicon**: Bottom support is expected to move down [17] - **Silicon Iron**: Bottom support will be tested [18] - **Ferrous Metals** - **Steel (Thread & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices rebound, but demand is weak, and supply pressure is gradually relieved [13] - **Iron Ore**: Prices are expected to be volatile, with a relatively loose supply - demand situation [14] - **Coke**: Prices may be in a weak - volatile pattern [15] - **Coking Coal**: Prices may be in a weak - volatile pattern [16] Agriculture - **Grains and Oilseeds** - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: Brazilian soybean production is expected to reach a record high, and domestic supply is sufficient. Observe the callback and look for long - position opportunities [34] - **Soybean Oil & Palm Oil**: Palm oil supply - demand is weak but marginally improving; soybean oil is affected by US soybean exports and South American weather [35] - **Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term drivers are not significant, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [36] - **Corn**: Corn futures are in a high - level shock, and pay attention to new - grain sales and trade agreements [38] - **Other Agricultural Products** - **Cotton**: US cotton exports are improving, and domestic new - cotton sales are fast. Look for hedging opportunities [41] - **Sugar**: International supply is sufficient, and domestic production in Guangxi is expected to be good [42] - **Apples**: Short - term prices are strong, but long - term inventory pressure may exist [43] - **Timber**: Low inventory supports prices, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [44] - **Paper Pulp**: Prices are in a downward trend due to weak fundamentals, and maintain a wait - and - see attitude [45] Others - **Shipping**: The SCFI European route shows weak price increase, and different contracts of the container shipping index have different trends [19] - **Financial Futures** - **Stock Index**: Short - term macro and geopolitical uncertainties exist, and maintain a wait - and - see and defensive strategy [46] - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury futures show a differentiated performance, and there is a weak - volatile pattern [47]