来源：滚动播报 凯雷集团表示，特朗普政府呼吁美联储大幅降息，加上美国短债发行增加的前景，可能会扰乱美债市场 并最终推高长期借贷成本。"债券持有人希望确信美联储的工作是保障其本金的实际价值。如果他们觉 得美联储更关注政府融资，就可能出现债券抛售和更高的期限溢价，"凯雷全球研究和投资战略主管 Jason Thomas表示。 ...

凯雷集团称，特朗普政府呼吁美联储大幅降息，加上美国短期债券发行增加的前景，有可能扰乱国债市 场，最终可能推高长期借贷成本。凯雷集团全球研究与投资策略主管杰森·托马斯表示："债券持有人希 望相信，美联储的职责是维护其本金的实际价值。如果他们反而觉得美联储更关注政府融资，那么可能 会出现债券抛售和期限溢价上升的情况。"问题的核心在于，特朗普持续向美联储决策者施压，要求下 调基准利率，以刺激美国经济——这一举措也将为财政部通过转向发行短期国库券、而非在当前高收益 环境下锁定长期债务，来节省利息支出打开通道。美国财政部长贝森特最近几个月提出了这种设想。 来源：滚动播报 ...

Core Viewpoint - Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers warns that President Trump's attempts to influence the Federal Reserve and push for interest rate cuts could lead to a sharp rise in inflation expectations, increasing long-term borrowing costs and exacerbating fiscal risks [1][2]. Group 1: Interest Rate and Monetary Policy - Summers notes that no mainstream economists support lowering interest rates to 1% in the current environment, suggesting that while it may bring short-term economic benefits, it would create strong inflationary expectations [1]. - The current target range for the Federal Reserve's benchmark interest rate is 4.25% to 4.5%, while Trump has called for a reduction of up to 3 percentage points [1]. - Most Federal Reserve officials have indicated that they will not consider rate cuts until the impact of Trump's new tariff policies on inflation is more clearly assessed [1]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Signals - Summers highlights a recent market reaction to reports of Trump considering dismissing Fed Chair Powell, which led to a drop in 2-year Treasury yields and an increase in 10-year yields, indicating a shift in market expectations towards looser monetary policy [1]. - He warns that the current policy mix from the Trump administration is sowing the seeds of a dangerous vicious cycle, where large fiscal deficits push up long-term borrowing costs, further exacerbating budget deficits [2]. Group 3: Long-term Fiscal Outlook - Summers points out that the bond market is sending concerning signals, with long-term U.S. Treasury yield expectations remaining high, which poses a serious warning for the U.S. medium-term fiscal credibility [2]. - Recent market data shows that the one-year forward yield on 10-year inflation-protected Treasury bonds has recently surpassed 3%, compared to an average of about 2% since 2000 [2]. - The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has not fully accounted for the high market interest rate expectations in its forecasts for future borrowing costs, indicating that the government will face significant challenges in long-term debt issuance [2]. Group 4: Economic Indicators and Concerns - Summers expresses concern over the U.S. fiscal situation, noting that the dollar index has experienced its largest decline since 1973 in the first half of this year [3]. - Regarding the recent U.S. inflation data for June, Summers indicates that while some indicators rose less than expected, the impact of tariffs on inflation may still be delayed and should not be dismissed [3].