丹斯克银行延斯·奈维格·佩德森在报告中指出，对国债市场而言，15-20年期债券似乎正取代30年期成为 长端债券的新热点。此前30年期一直是发行超长期债券的传统区间。这位外汇与利率策略师表示："但 随着荷兰养老金改革将关注点转向15-20年期区间，欧元区政府债券正在适应这一新框架。" 责任编辑：王许宁 丹斯克银行延斯·奈维格·佩德森在报告中指出，对国债市场而言，15-20年期债券似乎正取代30年期成为 长端债券的新热点。此前30年期一直是发行超长期债券的传统区间。这位外汇与利率策略师表示："但 随着荷兰养老金改革将关注点转向15-20年期区间，欧元区政府债券正在适应这一新框架。" 责任编辑：王许宁 ...

Core Viewpoint - The 2025 Chinese government bond market has undergone deep calibration amid frequent macro narratives and intense long-short logic battles, characterized by record supply and a proactive issuance pace in the primary market, effectively supporting active fiscal policies while the secondary market experienced a narrow range of fluctuations in the 10-year bond yield, which gradually shifted downward throughout the year [1][13]. Group 1: Primary Market Dynamics - In 2025, the primary market for government bonds achieved a historic leap under the theme of "active fiscal policy moderately strengthened, quality improved," with notable features including increased supply scale, scientifically advanced issuance pace, and continuous optimization of maturity structure [2][15]. - The total issuance of government bonds reached a historic high of 16,014.02 billion yuan, a significant increase of 28.37% compared to 12,474.83 billion yuan in 2024, with 206 bonds issued throughout the year [2][15]. - The issuance of special bonds focused on long-term funding for national strategic security areas and key projects, with the issuance of ultra-long special bonds reaching 1.3 trillion yuan, expected to significantly boost annual GDP growth [5][19]. Group 2: Interest Rate Trends - The overall issuance interest rates of government bonds declined, effectively guiding the financing costs across society. The short-term interest rates (1-3 years) ranged from 1.16% to 1.79%, while the 10-year bond issuance rate stabilized around 1.78% [6][19]. - The systematic decline in issuance costs of government bonds, as a risk-free rate anchor, directly contributed to the reduction of comprehensive financing costs in the bond market and the real economy, achieving efficient unity between fiscal sustainability and financial benefits to the real sector [6][19]. Group 3: Secondary Market Developments - The secondary market for government bonds in 2025 was characterized by complex dynamics, with the 10-year bond yield fluctuating between approximately 1.6% and 1.9%, undergoing a "four-round game" of expectations that ultimately established a new oscillating equilibrium [7][21]. - The first round saw a rapid correction of overly optimistic expectations regarding monetary easing, with yields rebounding nearly 40 basis points by mid-March [9][21]. - The fourth round featured a key institutional benefit with the central bank's announcement to restart government bond trading operations, which was interpreted as a significant step in enhancing liquidity management tools and stabilizing long-term expectations [10][22]. Group 4: Strategic Role of Government Bonds - The evolution of the government bond market in 2025 transcended mere financing and trading, extending its functions to monetary policy operations, financial openness, and the construction of the national credit system [11][23]. - The "stabilizer" and "attractiveness" roles of RMB assets have strengthened, with foreign investors steadily increasing their holdings, leading to broader inclusion of government bonds in major global bond indices [11][23]. - The modernization of government bond management, including the incorporation of bond trading into the central bank's regular monetary policy toolbox, marks a significant milestone in establishing a modern central banking system [11][23]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The government bond market is expected to continue evolving under the overarching theme of "high-quality development," balancing necessary government financing, reducing debt costs, and maintaining financial system stability [12][24]. - As market depth, product innovation, and institutional openness progress, the yield curve of government bonds will increasingly serve as a benchmark for asset pricing across society [12][24]. - Market participants will need to shift from merely chasing interest rate trends to developing a deeper understanding of macro logic, seizing structural opportunities, and effectively managing interest rate risks to succeed in the new balanced market [12][24].

新华财经北京1月1日电（王菁）2025年的我国国债市场，是在宏观叙事频繁切换、多空逻辑激烈博弈中展开的深度校准。这一年，市场在"稳增长"与"防风 险"、"强政策"与"弱现实"的张力间，走出了一条独特的路径：一级市场以创纪录的供给规模和前置的发行节奏，有力支撑了积极的财政政策；二级市场以 10年期国债收益率为代表在狭窄区间内演绎了一场高频率的"折返跑"，全年波动中枢温和下移。 随着多方面政策升级优化的加持下，国债市场在扩容中深化了韧性，在波动中重塑了平衡，不仅高效完成了财政筹资与流动性供给的核心使命，更在服务国 家战略、畅通货币政策传导中发挥了不可替代的枢纽作用。 一级市场：稳健扩容与结构优化，财政融资主渠道功能凸显 2025年，国债一级市场在"积极的财政政策适度加力、提质增效"的基调下，实现了历史性的跨越。其核心特征体现为供给规模有所放量、发行节奏科学前 置、期限结构持续优化，精准有力地保障了国家重大战略实施的资金需求。 ——发行规模创历史新高，中央加杠杆支撑稳增长。据新华财经梳理，2025年全年国债发行总额达到160,140.20亿元，较2024年的124,748.31亿元同比大幅增 长28.37% ；全年 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "15th Five-Year Plan" aims for China to achieve a per capita GDP level of a moderately developed country by 2035, emphasizing the need for new economic growth drivers and financial reforms to realize the "financial power" strategy [2] Economic Development Characteristics - The "15th Five-Year" period will be characterized by a shift from a "shortage economy" to an "over-supply economy," necessitating a fundamental change in governance logic and economic policy [5][6] - The global technological revolution presents a historical opportunity for China, with a strong foundation in artificial intelligence, big data, and new energy [4] Consumption Dynamics - In an "over-supply economy," consumption is crucial for maintaining economic balance, shifting from being viewed as waste to a key driver of growth [6][7] - The expansion of consumption is constrained by income, wealth, and social security, requiring institutional restructuring in these areas [7][8] Wealth Creation and Employment - Optimizing the business environment and protecting the rights of various market entities, including state-owned and private enterprises, is essential for job creation and income growth [7] - Approximately 60% to 70% of household wealth is concentrated in real estate, which poses risks to consumption when property prices decline [8] Social Security and Savings - High savings rates among Chinese residents reflect cultural tendencies and a precautionary approach, which can suppress effective demand in an "over-supply economy" [9] - A robust social security system is necessary to alleviate residents' concerns and release locked purchasing power [9] Financial System Reform - The core task of financial reform during the "15th Five-Year" period is to adapt the financial system to the transition from a shortage to an over-supply economy [10] - There is a need for innovation in financial products to meet the diverse financing needs of enterprises at different life stages [11] Capital Market Development - The capital market's role is evolving from merely a financing tool to a platform for wealth management and risk-sharing [17][18] - Enhancing the quality of listed companies and encouraging high-growth firms to go public is vital for the capital market's long-term value [18] Liquidity and Market Activity - Maintaining adequate liquidity is essential for the capital market's price discovery function and investor satisfaction [19] - A daily trading volume of around 2 trillion yuan should be considered a normal state of market maturity [19] Legal and Regulatory Framework - Strengthening legal frameworks to ensure market transparency and protect investors is critical for rebuilding trust in the capital market [20] - Severe penalties for fraudulent activities are necessary to establish a market environment based on investor protection and contractual integrity [20]

债市预期走弱，关注配置需求支撑 国债月报 2025/12/05 蒋文斌（宏观金融组） 0755-23375128 jiangwb@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F3048844 交易咨询号：Z0017196 程靖茹（联系人） chengjr@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03133937 02 期现市场 05 利率及汇率 03 主要经济数据 01 月度评估及策略推荐 月度评估及策略推荐 CONTENTS 目录 01 月度评估及策略推荐 04 流动性 ◆ 经济及政策：11月PMI数据显示，供需两端均有所回暖，但制造业PMI仍处于荣枯线下，服务业下滑明显，表明内需仍有待提振。新型政策性 金融工具未能完全对冲地产下行的冲击，当前需求恢复的动力不足，经济内生修复态势仍待巩固。出口方面，10月出口数据低于预期，对美 出口回落而非美地区出口增速维持韧性。四中全会强调坚决实现全年经济社会发展目标，考虑到今年前三季度经济增速较高，因此今年实现 目标的压力不大,政策面可能更多关注与明年的衔接性政策，四季度加码的必要性不强。海外方面，11月美元流动性偏紧，后续观察通胀以 及就业数据对12月降息的指示。 1、央行公告，为保持银行体系 ...

Core Insights - The current financial system remains resilient, supported by strong asset positions of households and businesses, as well as adequate capital levels in the banking sector [2][4] - The Federal Reserve's latest Financial Stability Report highlights ongoing risks and vulnerabilities, particularly in asset valuations, the structural shift of corporate lending from traditional banks to private credit, and the increasing role of hedge funds in the U.S. Treasury market [2][5][8] Group 1: Asset Valuation - Asset valuations for stocks, corporate bonds, leveraged loans, and real estate are currently above historical benchmarks, indicating a potential risk of price corrections [5][6] - The risk compensation expectations are at historically low levels, which could either revert to normal, remain subdued, or weaken further [5][6] - Despite the potential for asset price declines, the overall resilience of the financial system suggests that a repeat of systemic failures like those seen during the Great Recession is unlikely [5][6] Group 2: Private Credit Expansion - Private credit has doubled in size over the past five years, raising concerns about the rapid growth of non-bank lending to non-public companies [6][7] - The private credit model allows long-term investors to fund private companies, which may lack access to traditional bank financing, potentially enhancing financial stability and economic growth [6][7] - However, the complexity and interconnectedness of leveraged entities in this space could create pathways for unexpected losses to affect the broader financial system [6][7] Group 3: Hedge Funds in Treasury Market - Hedge funds have significantly increased their holdings in U.S. Treasury securities, with their share rising from 4.6% in Q1 2021 to 10.3% in Q1 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels [8][9] - The sensitivity of hedge fund positions to market changes poses a risk of liquidity crises if they are forced to sell off large amounts of Treasuries simultaneously [8][9] - The trading strategies employed by hedge funds, particularly relative value strategies, could amplify market instability during periods of stress [8][9] Group 4: Impact of Artificial Intelligence - The rapid development of AI in financial services presents both opportunities and challenges for financial stability, particularly in algorithmic trading [10][11] - Generative AI can analyze vast amounts of data and deploy complex trading strategies, which may introduce risks if not properly monitored [10][11] - While AI has the potential to enhance market efficiency, it also raises concerns about market manipulation and the opacity of decision-making processes [10][11][12]

Core Insights - The article discusses the increasing attention on government debt in China as a key variable in macroeconomic operations, highlighting its scale, structure, function, and sustainability amidst a complex economic environment [1] Government Bond Types and Maturity Structure - The types of government bonds in China are primarily classified into deficit debt and self-repaying debt, with a predominance of medium-term bonds and a relative scarcity of short-term bonds [2] - Government bonds serve as a source of liquidity in the financial market and are an important component of wealth for non-financial sectors, but their role in wealth composition for residents remains underexplored [2] Debt Growth Rate Comparison - Since the 21st century, there has been a global focus on debt crises, with a notable increase in government debt in China, particularly local government debt, while the debt growth rate for non-financial sectors, including households and enterprises, has been declining [3] Bond Purchaser Structure - The identity of bond purchasers significantly influences the macroeconomic impact of bond issuance, with non-financial sector purchases involving only fund transfers and no monetary creation, while central bank purchases can create money [4] - In China, commercial banks are the primary holders of government bonds, which has implications for inflation effects [6] Debt Sustainability Analysis - Debt sustainability is a long-standing and contentious issue, with international standards suggesting a deficit rate not exceeding 3% and a debt-to-GDP ratio not exceeding 60% [11] - The sustainability of debt can be assessed through various metrics, including the ratio of debt to earnings before interest and taxes for enterprises and the ratio of debt to payable income streams at the macro level [11] Role of Central Banks in Debt Management - The role of central banks in managing government bonds and liquidity is crucial, with recent reports emphasizing the need for liquidity management to align with economic growth and price stability [12] - Central banks are increasingly focusing on asset price stability and have adapted their policies to enhance financial market stability, particularly in the context of government bond management [13]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - China's export in October showed mixed performance, with overall export growth benefiting from diversification despite a decline in exports to the US. The bond market had a short - term rally last week and a slight pullback this week, and if international financial market volatility expands next week, it will be relatively favorable for the domestic bond market [10][14][27] 3. Summary by Related Content 3.1 Bond Market - This week, most of the major Treasury futures contracts showed a narrow sideways fluctuation in the first two trading days and a continuous decline in the last three days, with a slight weekly decline. The 30 - year Treasury fell 0.59%, the 10 - year fell 0.20%, the 5 - year fell 0.15%, and the 2 - year fell 0.07% [4] - As of November 7, the Treasury bond yield curve shifted slightly upward in parallel compared to October 31. The 2 - year yield rose 3 BP to 1.43%, the 5 - year rose 2 BP to 1.59%, the 10 - year rose 1 BP to 1.81%, and the 30 - year rose 2 BP to 2.16% [7] 3.2 Foreign Trade - In October, China's exports denominated in US dollars decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, while imports increased by 1.0% year - on - year. The trade surplus was 900.7 billion US dollars. From January to October, exports increased by 5.3% year - on - year, and imports decreased by 0.9% year - on - year [10] - In October, exports to ASEAN increased by 11%, to the EU by 0.9%, and decreased by 25.2% to the US. Exports to countries and regions outside the top five export destinations increased by 3.45% [12][14] 3.3 Real Estate - In the first quarter, the average daily trading area of commercial housing in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 236,000 square meters, a year - on - year increase of 2.5%. In the second quarter, it was 265,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%. In the third quarter, it was 220,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 8%. In October, it was 240,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 27%. From November 1 - 6, it was 170,000 square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 48%. The national commercial housing sales are still in the bottom - grinding process [16] 3.4 Prices - The 200 - index of agricultural product wholesale prices rose rapidly in October, which will promote the month - on - month increase of CPI in October and reduce the year - on - year decline. At the beginning of November, it showed a narrow sideways fluctuation [18] - In October, the average value of the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 7.7% year - on - year, and the index decreased by 0.5% month - on - month. At the beginning of November, industrial product prices remained at a low level [21] 3.5 Capital - This week, short - term capital interest rates remained at a low level. The weighted average of DR001 was 1.318%, and that of DR007 was 1.424%. The average issuance interest rate of one - year AAA inter - bank certificates of deposit was 1.637%, a slight decline from last week [24] 3.6 Market Logic and Trading Strategy - The reasons for the decline in China's exports in October include the slowdown of export growth in South Korea and Vietnam in October and the relatively high base in October last year. The central bank's plan to resume open - market Treasury bond trading operations drove the bond market rally last week. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield of 1.85% may be the upper limit in the future [27] - The trading strategy is for trading - type investors to conduct band operations [28]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On October 21, 2025, the LPR quote remained flat, and the Q3 economic data met expectations with a marginal weakening trend. The bond market was mainly suppressed by the stock market's recovery, and most treasury bond futures closed lower. The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities rose, with larger increases in the medium - to long - term. The funds were stable with a marginal convergence. The 10 - year bond market entered a window period after the negative factors were cleared, but lacked a trigger for a counter - attack due to the difficulty of short - term monetary easing and the disturbance of the stock - bond seesaw effect [8][9][10][11][12] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Conditions**: The LPR quote remained flat, Q3 economic data met expectations and showed a marginal weakening trend. The bond market was mainly suppressed by the stock market's recovery, and most treasury bond futures closed lower [8] - **Interest Rate Bonds**: The yields of major inter - bank interest rate bonds across all maturities rose, with the medium - to long - term yields rising by about 2bp. By 16:30 pm, the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond 250011 was reported at 1.7675%, up 2.25bp [9] - **Funding Market**: The funds were stable with a marginal convergence. There were 253.8 billion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities, and the central bank injected 189 billion yuan, resulting in a net withdrawal of 64.8 billion yuan. The inter - bank fund sentiment index was stable, short - term fund rates fluctuated within a narrow range, the 7 - day rate rose 2.47bp to 1.4332%, and the medium - to long - term funds were stable [10] - **Conclusion**: In October, the bond market entered a window period after the negative factors were cleared, but lacked a counter - attack trigger due to the difficulty of short - term monetary easing. Although the policy orientation of loose money and loose finance remained unchanged, the bond market lacked direct positive stimuli and was disturbed by the stock - bond seesaw effect, so investors needed to wait patiently for a counter - attack opportunity [11][12] 3.2 Industry News - On October 18, Chinese and US economic and trade leaders held a video call, agreeing to hold a new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations as soon as possible. US President Trump continued to send conciliatory signals, and the Trump administration was quietly relaxing multiple tariff policies [13] - Multiple experts expected the LPR quotes for both tenors in October to remain flat. Analysts expected a downward adjustment space for subsequent policy rates and LPR quotes. Central Bank Governor Pan Gongsheng said that China would continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy. The opening ceremony of the 2025 Financial Street Forum Annual Conference was scheduled for October 27, and relevant leaders would attend and make speeches [14] 3.3 Data Overview - **Treasury Bond Futures Market**: The report presented data on treasury bond futures trading on October 20, including contract information such as opening price, closing price, settlement price, price change, trading volume, open interest, and open interest change. It also mentioned the inter - maturity spread and inter - variety spread of the main treasury bond futures contracts, as well as the trend of the main contracts [6] - **Money Market**: The report showed the term structure change and trend of SHIBOR, as well as the change in the weighted inter - bank pledged repurchase rate and the inter - bank pledged repurchase rate [29][33] - **Derivatives Market**: The report presented the Shibor3M interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) and the FR007 interest rate swap fixing curve (mean) [35]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: Maintain an optimistic view on A-shares in the long term, as market trading sentiment remains active, RMB appreciation drives loose internal and external liquidity, and there is support from credit impulse resilience and consumption policy expectations. However, in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of fluctuations caused by the passivation of positive factors due to four marginal changes, including structural overheating in market sentiment, potential capital flow disturbances after the Fed's preventive rate cut, weak fundamental data in most months, and the approaching National Day holiday [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Stock market fluctuations intensify the volatility of interest rate bonds. The follow - up trend of domestic interest rate bonds mainly depends on the central bank's rate - cut plan, and policy trends will dominate market sentiment repair and yield positioning. The Fed's rate cut has limited impact on domestic interest rate bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Directory **Stock Index Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Last week, the market continued to fluctuate with significant style differentiation. The large - cap growth sector performed strongly, while the value sector was under pressure. Major indices showed mixed performance, with growth - style broad - based indices leading the gains [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main A - share indices showed a differentiated and volatile pattern last week. The Shanghai Composite Index was constrained by the 3100 - point pressure, while the ChiNext Index was strong, breaking through the 20 - week moving average, and the STAR 50 index was approaching its annual high but in the overbought area [7]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Remain rational and make cautious decisions [7]. **Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Bond yields first rose and then fell last week. The bond market was under pressure during the week and rebounded slightly at the end of the week. The treasury bond curve showed a slight bear - steepening, and the overall rebound momentum was limited [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Treasury bond futures first fell and then rebounded. T2412 continued to decline since September 16th. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest mostly increased. The CTD net basis was differentiated, and the IRR was generally low [8]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Wait patiently for a clear trend before operating [8]. **Key Data Tracking** - **PMI**: In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal changes. Supply and demand on both sides weakened, and the upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while the downstream export chain was suppressed [12]. - **Inflation**: In September, the year - on - year CPI was flat, and the month - on - month CPI rose by 0.4%. The year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6%, and the month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI were still sluggish [15]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.7%, and the growth rate of the service industry production index dropped to 5.8%. The decline in the industrial added value was mainly due to the export chain [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In September, the estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative to - 5.2%. The reasons for the negative growth were complex, including short - term, medium - term, and long - term factors [21]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 3.7%. The weakening was mainly reflected in low - level fluctuations in catering consumption, weakening sales of state - subsidized categories, and a decline in real - estate - related consumption [24]. - **Social Financing**: In September, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were - 100 billion yuan. The growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and there are still windows for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [27]. - **Imports and Exports**: In September, exports were 321.78 billion US dollars, imports were 223.54 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars. The performance of imports and exports was significantly better than market expectations, mainly due to the "rush" characteristic under the threat of US tariffs [30]. **Key Points to Watch This Week** - Multiple economic indicators in the US, such as ADP employment, non - farm payrolls, ISM services PMI, refinery utilization rate, and initial jobless claims, need to be monitored [32].