Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Stock Index**: Maintain an optimistic view on A-shares in the long term, as market trading sentiment remains active, RMB appreciation drives loose internal and external liquidity, and there is support from credit impulse resilience and consumption policy expectations. However, in the short term, it is necessary to be vigilant against the risk of fluctuations caused by the passivation of positive factors due to four marginal changes, including structural overheating in market sentiment, potential capital flow disturbances after the Fed's preventive rate cut, weak fundamental data in most months, and the approaching National Day holiday [7]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Stock market fluctuations intensify the volatility of interest rate bonds. The follow - up trend of domestic interest rate bonds mainly depends on the central bank's rate - cut plan, and policy trends will dominate market sentiment repair and yield positioning. The Fed's rate cut has limited impact on domestic interest rate bonds [8]. 3. Summary by Directory **Stock Index Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Last week, the market continued to fluctuate with significant style differentiation. The large - cap growth sector performed strongly, while the value sector was under pressure. Major indices showed mixed performance, with growth - style broad - based indices leading the gains [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The main A - share indices showed a differentiated and volatile pattern last week. The Shanghai Composite Index was constrained by the 3100 - point pressure, while the ChiNext Index was strong, breaking through the 20 - week moving average, and the STAR 50 index was approaching its annual high but in the overbought area [7]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Remain rational and make cautious decisions [7]. **Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions** - **Trend Review**: Bond yields first rose and then fell last week. The bond market was under pressure during the week and rebounded slightly at the end of the week. The treasury bond curve showed a slight bear - steepening, and the overall rebound momentum was limited [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: Treasury bond futures first fell and then rebounded. T2412 continued to decline since September 16th. The trading volume decreased, and the open interest mostly increased. The CTD net basis was differentiated, and the IRR was generally low [8]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Wait patiently for a clear trend before operating [8]. **Key Data Tracking** - **PMI**: In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal changes. Supply and demand on both sides weakened, and the upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while the downstream export chain was suppressed [12]. - **Inflation**: In September, the year - on - year CPI was flat, and the month - on - month CPI rose by 0.4%. The year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6%, and the month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI were still sluggish [15]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value dropped to 5.7%, and the growth rate of the service industry production index dropped to 5.8%. The decline in the industrial added value was mainly due to the export chain [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In September, the estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative to - 5.2%. The reasons for the negative growth were complex, including short - term, medium - term, and long - term factors [21]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In September, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales dropped to 3.7%. The weakening was mainly reflected in low - level fluctuations in catering consumption, weakening sales of state - subsidized categories, and a decline in real - estate - related consumption [24]. - **Social Financing**: In September, new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and new RMB loans were - 100 billion yuan. The growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved. In the future, the social financing growth rate may peak and decline, and there are still windows for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts this year [27]. - **Imports and Exports**: In September, exports were 321.78 billion US dollars, imports were 223.54 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars. The performance of imports and exports was significantly better than market expectations, mainly due to the "rush" characteristic under the threat of US tariffs [30]. **Key Points to Watch This Week** - Multiple economic indicators in the US, such as ADP employment, non - farm payrolls, ISM services PMI, refinery utilization rate, and initial jobless claims, need to be monitored [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term market may continue to fluctuate and differentiate, with investors' sentiment being cautious. The precious metals sector is supported by international gold prices, and its subsequent performance is worth attention. The real - estate industry chain is expected to remain active due to policy incentives. The semiconductor and photovoltaic equipment sectors need to track capacity adjustment and performance improvement. The technology sector fluctuates greatly, and it is recommended to closely monitor news and individual stock fundamentals. Overall, there are both opportunities and risks in the market, and investors should make rational decisions and pay attention to position management [7]. - Fundamentally, China's economic slow - recovery trend remains unchanged, with PPI and CPI remaining low and residents' financing demand being weak. The data does not currently support a rapid rise in interest rates. The central bank maintains a moderately loose monetary policy, which supports the bond market. In the fourth quarter, affected by the high base, economic data may weaken periodically. If policies are intensified to strengthen the expectation of monetary easing, the bond market is expected to decline. The current low - inflation environment and policy tone together constitute favorable conditions for the bond market, and subsequent attention should be paid to the marginal changes in economic data and the policy response rhythm [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Stock Index Strategy Suggestions - **Stock Index Trend Review**: Last week, the A - share market rose overall, with major indices rebounding. The Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, ChiNext Index, and STAR Market all showed gains. The STAR Market was particularly outstanding, reflecting the strong momentum of the growth - style sector. The daily average trading volume of A - shares last week was about trillions of yuan, slightly lower than the previous week. The growth - style sector led the market rebound, and the change in trading volume reflected the dynamics of market trading activity [7]. - **Core Viewpoints**: The short - term market may continue to fluctuate and differentiate, and investors' sentiment is cautious. The precious metals sector is supported by international gold prices, and the real - estate industry chain is expected to be active. The semiconductor and photovoltaic equipment sectors need to track capacity adjustment and performance improvement. The technology sector fluctuates greatly, and investors should make rational decisions and pay attention to position management [7]. - **Technical Analysis**: The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the long - term trend line last Thursday, forming a "Jiao Long Chu Hai" pattern, indicating a significant increase in short - term bullish momentum and a shift from a cautious to a positive market pattern [7]. 3.2 Treasury Bond Strategy Suggestions - **Treasury Bond Trend Review**: Last week, there was a net capital withdrawal of 100 million yuan. The bond market fluctuated sharply due to the new regulations on public fund redemption fees and tax - exemption policy rumors. The yields of long - term and ultra - long - term bonds exceeded previous highs, and then recovered after the central bank's news of restarting treasury bond trading. On the evening of a certain day, after the release of credit data, the yield of a certain - year treasury bond decreased slightly, while the yields of other - year and ultra - long - term treasury bonds increased [8]. - **Core Viewpoints**: China's economic slow - recovery trend remains unchanged, and the central bank's moderately loose monetary policy supports the bond market. In the fourth quarter, economic data may weaken periodically, and if policies are intensified, the bond market may decline. Attention should be paid to economic data and policy responses [8]. - **Technical Analysis**: The K - line of the T contract oscillated upward, closing with a positive line. The MACD yellow and white lines were intertwined, and the increment of the green shadow decreased marginally. The three tracks of the BOLL line still maintained a downward - opening pattern [8]. - **Strategy Outlook**: Wait patiently for a clear trend before operating [8]. 3.3 Key Data Tracking - **PMI**: In July, the manufacturing PMI fell to 49.3%, weaker than market expectations and seasonal changes. Both supply and demand weakened. The upstream non - ferrous and steel industries improved, while the downstream export chain was suppressed [12]. - **Inflation**: In a certain month, the year - on - year CPI was flat, and the month - on - month CPI rose by 0.4%. The year - on - year PPI decreased by 3.6%, and the month - on - month PPI decreased by 0.2%. There were positive changes in prices, but the year - on - year CPI and PPI were still low [15]. - **Industrial Added Value**: In a certain month, the year - on - year growth rate of industrial added value fell to 5.7%, and the year - on - year growth rate of the service industry production index fell to 5.8%. The decline in the industrial added value growth rate was mainly due to the export chain, with significant declines in the year - on - year growth rates of export - oriented industries such as automobiles, electronics, textiles, and electrical machinery [18]. - **Fixed - Asset Investment**: In a certain month, the estimated year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment turned negative to - 5.2%. The year - on - year growth rates of manufacturing, narrow - sense infrastructure, and real - estate investment declined. The reasons for the negative growth of fixed - asset investment were complex, including short - term factors such as extreme weather and statistical method misalignment, medium - term factors such as export expectation decline and policy implementation, and long - term factors such as the shrinking real - estate investment [21]. - **Social Retail Sales**: In a certain month, the year - on - year growth rate of social retail sales fell to 3.7%, and the year - on - year growth rate of retail sales above the designated size fell to 2.8%. The weakening of social retail sales was mainly reflected in the low - level fluctuation of catering consumption, the weakening of sales of state - subsidized products, and the decline of real - estate - related consumption [24]. - **Social Financing**: In a certain month, the new social financing was 1.2 trillion yuan, and the new RMB loans were negative. At the end of the month, the year - on - year growth rate of the stock of social financing scale was 9.0%, and the year - on - year growth rate of M2 was 8.8%. The credit data was negative, but the growth rates of social financing, M1, and M2 improved with fiscal support. In the future, the base effect and government bonds will still support social financing, but the government bonds in Q4 will face a year - on - year decrease, and the growth rate of social financing may peak and decline. There is still a window for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts this year, and attention should be paid to the implementation of new policy - based financial tools and the possibility of new government bond quotas [27]. - **Imports and Exports**: In a certain month, China's exports were 321.78 billion US dollars, imports were 223.54 billion US dollars, and the trade surplus was 98.24 billion US dollars. The import and export performance in this month was significantly better than market expectations, mainly due to the "rush" characteristic under the threat of the US government to impose tariffs on semiconductors and pharmaceuticals. Semiconductor - related enterprises accelerated inventory replenishment, and domestic enterprises accelerated the import of pharmaceutical materials and products [30]. - **Key Points to Watch This Week**: This week, attention should be paid to the initial jobless claims in the US on a certain day, the federal funds target rate, the refinery utilization rate and capacity utilization rate on a certain day, the crude oil inventory and strategic reserve inventory on a certain day, and the new housing starts (private housing) in a certain month in the US [32].

Group 1: Market Overview - The bond market showed slight gains in early trading on September 15, with the 30-year government bond ETF (511090) rising by 0.21% [1] - As of 10:00 AM, the latest price for the 30-year government bond futures contract (TL2512) was 115.53 yuan, up 0.37%, with a trading volume of 30,161 contracts and a total open interest of 143,401 contracts [1] - Other government bond futures also saw increases, with the 10-year bond (T2512) up 0.13%, the 5-year bond (TF2512) up 0.07%, and the 2-year bond (TS2509) up 0.02% [1] Group 2: Monetary Policy and Financing - The central bank conducted a 600 billion yuan 7-day reverse repurchase operation today, maintaining the bidding rate at 1.40% [1] - Major interbank interest rates for government bonds generally declined, with the yield on the 10-year government bond active note (250011) down by 0.05 basis points to 1.797%, and the 30-year government bond active note (2500002) down by 1.2 basis points to 2.085% [1] - In August, new social financing amounted to 2.57 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 463 billion yuan, slightly below the average of 3.04 trillion yuan over the past five years [2] Group 3: Bond Market Insights - The August social financing stock growth rate fell to 8.8%, down 0.2 percentage points from July's 9% [2] - New government bonds issued in August totaled 1.37 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 251.9 billion yuan, indicating a slowdown in government bond issuance [2] - The Pengyang 30-year government bond ETF (511090) is currently the first ETF tracking the 30-year government bond index, offering T+0 trading attributes, which allows investors to trade flexibly and manage portfolio duration effectively [2]

Core Viewpoint - The Trump administration's call for significant interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, combined with the prospect of increased short-term bond issuance, may disrupt the Treasury bond market and ultimately raise long-term borrowing costs [1] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - The Federal Reserve is under pressure from the Trump administration to lower the benchmark interest rate to stimulate the U.S. economy [1] - This pressure could lead to a scenario where bondholders lose confidence in the Fed's commitment to maintaining the real value of their principal [1] Group 2: Treasury Bond Market Dynamics - Increased issuance of short-term Treasury bills, as suggested by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, may be a strategy to save on interest expenses in the current high-yield environment [1] - If the Fed appears more focused on government financing rather than protecting bondholders, it could trigger bond sell-offs and an increase in term premiums [1]

Report Overview - The report is the "Large - scale Asset Morning Report" released by the macro team of the research center on August 25, 2025 [2] Global Asset Market Performance 10 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 22, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, France, etc. were 4.255, 4.691, 3.420 respectively. There were different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the US was - 0.074, and the yearly change was 0.418 [3] 2 - year Treasury Yields of Major Economies - On August 22, 2025, the 2 - year Treasury yields of the US, UK, Germany, etc. were 3.740, 3.938, 1.945 respectively. There were also different changes in different time periods. For example, the latest change in the US was - 0.010, and the yearly change was - 0.270 [3] Dollar Exchange Rates against Major Emerging Economies' Currencies - On August 22, 2025, the dollar exchange rates against the Brazilian real, South African rand, etc. were 5.426, 17.449 respectively. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the Brazilian real was - 0.91%, and the yearly change was - 0.87% [3] Major Economies' Stock Indexes - On August 22, 2025, the closing prices of the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, etc. were 6466.910, 45631.740 respectively. There were percentage changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods. For example, the latest change in the S&P 500 was 1.52%, and the yearly change was 18.55% [3] Credit Bond Indexes - There were different changes in the latest, weekly, monthly, and yearly periods for the US investment - grade credit bond index, euro - zone investment - grade credit bond index, etc. For example, the latest change in the US investment - grade credit bond index was 0.53%, and the yearly change was 4.10% [3][4] Stock Index Futures Trading Data Index Performance - The closing prices of A - shares, CSI 300, etc. were 3825.76, 4378.00 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes. For example, the A - share index rose 1.45% [5] Valuation - The PE (TTM) of the CSI 300, SSE 50, etc. were 13.97, 11.94 respectively, with corresponding环比 changes. For example, the环比 change of the CSI 300's PE (TTM) was 0.24 [5] Risk Premium - The risk premiums of the S&P 500 and German DAX were - 0.61, 2.25 respectively, with环比 changes of 0.02 for both [5] Fund Flows - The latest values of fund flows in A - shares, the main board, etc. were 1045.08, 480.26 respectively, and there were corresponding 5 - day average values [5] Trading Volume - The latest trading volumes of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets, CSI 300, etc. were 25467.10, 6759.35 respectively, with环比 changes. For example, the环比 change of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets' trading volume was 1226.53 [5] Main Contract Basis - The basis of IF, IH, IC were 16.00, 13.39, - 12.45 respectively, with corresponding basis ratios of 0.37%, 0.46%, - 0.18% [5] Treasury Futures Trading Data - The closing prices of T00, TF00, T01, TF01 were 107.915, 105.475, 107.660, 105.370 respectively, with corresponding percentage changes. The R001, R007, SHIBOR - 3M were 1.4466%, 1.4839%, 1.5500% respectively, with daily changes in basis points [6]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance, in collaboration with the Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau, released the implementation plans for personal consumption loan interest subsidies and service industry operating entity loan interest subsidies on August 12 [1] - A press conference was held by the State Council Information Office on August 13 to introduce the details of these two policies [1] - Institutions have provided their views on the impact of the interest subsidy policies on government bond trends and the future performance of the bond market [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In July, China's exports exceeded expectations, but container throughput dropped sharply at the beginning of August, and if the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. - Although the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded in July, the year - on - year growth rate remained unchanged. If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound, but the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited [2][17]. - The real estate market continues to be sluggish, with new home sales area at a historical low and the second - hand housing market deteriorating [2][21]. - The bond market is in a volatile state this week. Looking forward, the bond market has investment value, and bond yields may break previous lows [3][35]. Summary by Directory 1. Domestic Economic Data Tracking (1) Export Exceeded Expectations - In July, China's export value was $321.78 billion, a year - on - year increase of 7.2%, far exceeding the Wind consensus forecast of 5.8% [11]. - Due to the "rush to export", the cumulative growth rate of export value has deviated from the annual average of the new export order index. Exports to the EU and ASEAN remained resilient, while those to the US continued to decline [11]. - Container throughput continued to rise in July but dropped sharply at the beginning of August. If the trend continues, August may be a turning point [1][11]. (2) Supply - side Reform Has Not Been Transmitted to PPI - In July, the year - on - year PPI remained at - 3.6%, the same as in June, due to the base effect. However, the month - on - month PPI growth rate rebounded by 0.2 percentage points compared to June [15][17]. - If commodity prices can hold up in August, the year - on - year PPI growth rate may rebound. However, the rebound amplitude is expected to be limited because the price increase in the upstream is difficult to be transmitted downstream, and overall demand needs to recover. Currently, only the mining and raw material sectors are showing price increases, accounting for about 25% [2][19]. 2. Real Estate Policy Effect Tracking - The Real Estate Market Continued to Perform Sluggishly - The sales area of new homes in 30 large and medium - sized cities continued to decline seasonally, remaining lower than the same period in 2024. The sales area of new homes in first - and third - tier cities was lower than in 2024, while that in second - tier cities was basically the same as last year. All are hovering at historical lows [2][21]. - As of July 28, the listing price index of second - hand housing continued to decline overall. The listing price index in first - tier cities rebounded slightly, while those in second - and third - tier cities continued to fall [2][21]. 3. Treasury Bonds: Policy Disturbance Cooled Down, and the Bond Market Remained Volatile - The bond market was relatively stable this week. The central bank conducted a 700 - billion - yuan 3 - month (91 - day) outright reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 300 billion yuan, sending a signal of explicit support [35]. - The upward trend brought by supply - side reform cooled down this week, and the impact on the bond market was not significant. Due to the unfalsifiable expectation of economic recovery brought by policy expectations, the bond market remained volatile [35]. - Looking forward, the overall view is bullish, with short - term volatility expected. The probability of interest rates continuing to decline is relatively high, and it will take time to test the policy effects [35].

Group 1 - Japanese government bonds experienced a slight decline in early trading, following the downward trend of U.S. Treasury prices overnight [1] - Barclays' fixed income, foreign exchange, and commodities research team noted that the Japanese bond market appeared calm ahead of the joint meeting of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party's two houses [1] - The meeting is expected to discuss the future of Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, with a high degree of uncertainty regarding the outcome [1] Group 2 - The yield on 10-year Japanese government bonds rose by 1 basis point to 1.495% [1]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1297.550, down by 7.000 or 0.54% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1210.650, down by 1.600 or 0.13% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is priced at 3348.300, up by 20.400 or 0.61% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is priced at 36.365, down by 0.810 or 2.18% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to US Dollar (EURUSD) is at 1.144, up by 0.34% [3] - British Pound to US Dollar (GBPUSD) is at 1.323, down by 0.06% [3] - US Dollar to Japanese Yen (USDJPY) is at 149.943, up by 0.28% [3] - Australian Dollar to US Dollar (AUDUSD) is at 0.644, up by 0.10% [3] - US Dollar to Swiss Franc (USDCHF) is at 0.813, down by 0.21% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin is priced at 118505.020, up by 664.720 or 0.56% [4] - Litecoin is priced at 110.620, up by 0.120 or 0.11% [4] - Ethereum is priced at 3855.480, up by 45.480 or 1.19% [4] - Ripple is priced at 3.171, up by 0.075 or 2.41% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - US 2-year Treasury yield is at 3.943, up by 0.006 or 0.15% [6] - US 5-year Treasury yield is at 3.957, down by 0.008 or 0.20% [7] - US 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.360, down by 0.017 or 0.39% [7] - US 30-year Treasury yield is at 4.888, down by 0.025 or 0.51% [7] - UK 10-year Treasury yield is at 4.607, down by 0.002 or 0.04% [7] - German 10-year Treasury yield is at 2.705, down by 0.001 or 0.04% [7] - French 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.364, up by 0.003 or 0.09% [7] - Italian 10-year Treasury yield is at 3.545, down by 0.007 or 0.20% [7] - Japanese 10-year Treasury yield is at 1.562, up by 0.008 or 0.51% [7]

Group 1: Precious Metals - Spot platinum (XPTUSD) is priced at 1396.740, showing an increase of 6.190 or 0.45% [2] - Spot palladium (XPDUSD) is priced at 1237.870, with a rise of 8.540 or 0.69% [2] - Gold (COMEX) is trading at 3318.300, up by 4.300 or 0.13% [2] - Silver (COMEX) is at 38.305, down by 0.025 or 0.07% [2] Group 2: Foreign Exchange - Euro to USD (EURUSD) is at 1.153, decreasing by 0.50% [3] - GBP to USD (GBPUSD) is at 1.332, down by 0.25% [3] - USD to JPY (USDJPY) is at 148.625, increasing by 0.06% [3] - AUD to USD (AUDUSD) is at 0.651, down by 0.23% [3] - USD to CHF (USDCHF) is at 0.807, up by 0.46% [3] Group 3: Cryptocurrencies - Bitcoin is priced at 118840.010, increasing by 777.690 or 0.66% [4] - Litecoin is at 110.010, up by 0.990 or 0.91% [4] - Ethereum is trading at 3853.510, with an increase of 54.510 or 1.43% [4] - Ripple (XRP) is priced at 3.160, up by 0.036 or 1.17% [4] Group 4: Treasury Bonds - The yield on the 2-year US Treasury bond is at 3.906 [6] - The yield on the 5-year US Treasury bond is at 3.953, down by 0.029 or 0.73% [7] - The yield on the 10-year US Treasury bond is at 4.380, decreasing by 0.062 or 1.40% [7] - The yield on the 30-year US Treasury bond is at 4.926, down by 0.039 or 0.79% [7] - The yield on the 10-year UK Treasury bond is at 4.643, down by 0.009 or 0.19% [7] - The yield on the 10-year German Treasury bond is at 2.701, increasing by 0.012 or 0.45% [7] - The yield on the 10-year French Treasury bond is at 3.355, up by 0.005 or 0.15% [7] - The yield on the 10-year Italian Treasury bond remains unchanged at 3.535 [7] - The yield on the 10-year Japanese Treasury bond is at 1.554, down by 0.006 or 0.38% [7]