Core Viewpoint - The return of Trump to the political scene has introduced unprecedented uncertainty in the markets, affecting macro traders and their strategies [1][2]. Group 1: Market Reactions - Trump's fluctuating policies on trade tariffs and taxes have disrupted established trading strategies, leading to significant market volatility [1]. - The HFRX Macro/CTA Index has dropped 4.3% year-to-date, marking the worst start since records began in 2004, highlighting the struggles of macro traders [3]. - In contrast, the S&P 500 index has risen nearly 2% this week, with a cumulative increase of 6% in May, indicating a divergence in market performance [3]. Group 2: Investment Strategies - Traditional defensive strategies, such as investing in value stocks and fixed-income tools, have failed to protect against market downturns, with defensive stocks lagging behind cyclical stocks by 10 percentage points [4]. - Popular volatility-linked ETFs have also seen declines of at least 25%, resulting in significant losses for investors who sought protection through these instruments [4]. - The best strategy in the current environment appears to be a passive approach, as retail investors have benefitted from the chaos, with $10 billion flowing into popular ETFs like Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (VOO) since May [5][6]. Group 3: Economic Resilience - Analysts emphasize that the natural resilience of the economy has been underestimated, suggesting that a more cautious and observant approach may yield better results than aggressive trading [6].

Group 1 - The report indicates that the QDII funds have outperformed other fund types with a bi-weekly increase of 3.46%, primarily benefiting from the easing of tariff policies affecting US tech and oil and gas sector theme funds [16][36][35] - The overall Chinese fund index rose by 0.92% in the past two weeks, with over 80% of funds across various categories recording positive returns, and FOF funds exceeding 90% in positive returns [16][36][35] - The report highlights that passive index funds outperformed actively managed funds, with active funds showing negative excess returns [17][36] Group 2 - The report notes a mixed performance in the bond market, with the China Convertible Bond Index rising by 1.64%, while the government bond index experienced a decline [12][36] - It suggests a favorable outlook for long-term bond investments, citing persistent weak domestic demand and potential further reductions in deposit rates to lower long-term interest rates [36][35] - The report recommends a strategic asset allocation approach, emphasizing a "core + theme" strategy for equity assets, focusing on core assets like the CSI 300 and thematic funds based on market risk preferences [36][35] Group 3 - The report identifies the top-performing funds in various categories, including the best-performing QDII funds and passive index funds, with specific funds listed showing significant returns [20][30][24] - It mentions that the new fund issuance market includes 66 funds, with a majority being passive index or enhanced index funds, indicating a trend towards passive investment strategies [32][36] - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting gold asset allocations based on individual risk tolerance, suggesting a range of 2% to 5% for gold investments to enhance risk-adjusted returns [36][35]

Group 1 - The report indicates a strong rebound in Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug theme funds, with significant performance noted in the recent period [2][24][29] - The A-share market experienced narrow fluctuations and a significant decrease in volatility following tariff policy impacts, with the China Securities 2000 and CSI 300 indices showing gains of 0.42% and 0.37% respectively [11][12] - The report highlights that the QDII funds and other types of funds performed best, with increases of 2.46% and 1.13% respectively, driven by a rebound in oversold assets such as oil and gas and the Hong Kong market [16][24] Group 2 - The investment outlook suggests a defensive strategy focusing on fundamentally solid and reasonably valued targets, recommending a "core + theme" allocation for equity assets [31][29] - For bond assets, the report notes that the domestic effective demand issue remains unresolved, and a new round of monetary easing is anticipated, suggesting buying long-term interest rate bonds during market adjustments [31][29] - The report recommends allocating 2% to 5% of the portfolio to gold assets, as even with lower expected returns, this allocation can significantly enhance the risk-adjusted returns of the investment portfolio [31][29]