联储降息后的分歧 当前美国经济数据如何影响对未来走势的判断？ 最近的数据层面显示出明显分化。就业市场方面，包括新增非农就业和失业率 等指标出现恶化，失业率达到周期最高水平，而非农就业甚至出现负增长。然 而其他指标，如生产、收入、消费和 GDP 等仍保持较好水平。例如，美国二季 美联储仍有充足的降息空间，有可能将利率降至中性水平以下，即 3% 以下，这将对美债走势产生积极影响。预计十年期美债收益率将继续下 降，短期可能波动，但年底及明年上半年将回落至 4%以下。 AI 行业资本开支对 GDP 贡献达到历史高峰，若后续增速下滑，将增加 美股压力。需关注科技巨头资本开支前瞻指引，这些因素综合可能影响 未来美股表现。 度 GDP 数据被大幅向上修正，其中居民消费（PCE）贡献显著。8 月份 PCE 数据增长 0.4%，超预期。此外，加拿大央行 GDP Now 模型预测三季度 GDP 达 3.9%，其中消费贡献超过 2%。这种稳健的整体经济数据与孱弱的就业市场 形成鲜明对比，引发了对于美国经济现状究竟由哪个部门决定的问题。 对于美国经济未来走势有哪些可能性？ 摘要 美国经济数据分化明显：就业市场恶化（失业率达周期高位， ...

Core Viewpoint - Recent economic data weakness and rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts have led to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, with the yield curve steepening due to widening term spreads [2][3] Group 1: Treasury Yield Movements - U.S. Treasury yields have shown volatility, with the 10-year yield fluctuating from nearly 4.5% in early July to below 4.2% mid-month, and currently oscillating around 4.3% to 4.45% [3] - The 2-year Treasury yield experienced a more pronounced decline, dropping from approximately 3.95% to below 3.7% after the release of disappointing non-farm payroll data [3][4] - The yield spread between the 10-year and 2-year Treasuries has widened from below 50 basis points in early July to 58 basis points recently [4] Group 2: Economic Data and Market Sentiment - The unexpected deterioration in non-farm payroll data has shaken market confidence in a "soft landing" for the U.S. economy, prompting a flight to safety into Treasuries and lowering yields [3][4] - Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September have intensified, although inflation outlook remains uncertain, influencing Treasury yield movements [2][5] Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The recent passage of the "Big and Beautiful" bill has raised the U.S. debt ceiling by $5 trillion, leading to increased Treasury issuance to cover budget deficits [7] - Concerns are growing about a potential surge in Treasury supply in Q3, reminiscent of previous supply shocks that drove yields significantly higher [7][8] - Demand for U.S. Treasuries has shown signs of weakness, with recent auctions reflecting lower interest from investors, particularly foreign central banks [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The Fed's meeting signaled policy divergence, making the short - term interest - rate cut path uncertain. After the weak non - farm employment data on August 1st, the market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September increased, with the probability of a 25bp cut exceeding 85%. The overall labor market showed structural weakness, and after the data release, the US Treasury yields declined across the board [12]. - The US Treasury maintains a stable long - and medium - term bond issuance rhythm, but the increase in the proportion of short - term bonds has a greater impact on liquidity. The market sentiment swings between "economic recession" and "policy game", and the short - term volatility of US Treasury assets has increased. It is expected that the US Treasury market will face intensified fluctuations around September [13][16]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. US Treasury Yield Review - As of August 1st, the 10 - year US Treasury yield dropped 21bp in two weeks, falling to 4.23%. Compared with two weeks ago, the 2 - year yield decreased by 19bp, and the 30 - year yield dropped 19bp [5]. 2. US Treasury Market Changes - In actual bond issuance, the duration of US Treasury issuance declined slightly in late July, with 68.44 billion for 2 - year, 69.88 billion for 5 - year, and 43.92 billion for 7 - year bonds. The US had a fiscal surplus of 27.01 billion dollars in June, and the 12 - month cumulative deficit slightly declined to 1.90 trillion dollars [5]. 3. Derivatives Market Structure - The net short position in US Treasury futures decreased slightly. As of July 29th, the net short positions of speculators, leveraged funds, asset management companies, and primary dealers rose to 5.681 million lots. The federal funds rate futures market shifted from a net long to a net short position of - 0.13 million lots, reflecting an increased demand for hedging against the expected decline in interest rates [5]. 4. US Dollar Liquidity and US Economy - **Monetary Policy**: In July 2025, the Fed kept the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, in line with market expectations. The policy statement recognized a slowdown in economic activity in the first half of the year, and there was a divergence of opinions within the Fed, with two governors advocating a 25 - basis - point rate cut being rejected [6]. - **Fiscal Policy**: As of July 30th, the US Treasury's TGA deposit balance increased by 107.361 billion dollars in two weeks, and the Fed's reverse repurchase tool contracted by 49 billion dollars in two weeks, leading to uncertainty in the short - term liquidity buffer space [6]. - **Economic Situation**: As of July 26th, the Fed's weekly economic indicator was 2.56 (2.34 two weeks ago), indicating a short - term improvement in the economy after stability [6]. 5. US Treasury Yield Trends - The Fed's meeting signaled policy divergence, and the short - term rate - cut path is uncertain. After the weak non - farm employment data on August 1st, the market's expectation of a September rate cut increased, and the US Treasury yields declined across the board, with the 2 - year yield dropping 25bp in a single day [12]. 6. US Treasury Issuance Policy - The US Treasury maintains a stable long - and medium - term bond issuance rhythm but increases the proportion of short - term bonds. The new refinancing plan is 125 billion dollars, with an increase in short - term Treasury issuance and a decrease in long - and medium - term bonds. Relying more on short - term debt financing may increase fiscal financing volatility and weaken the efficiency of monetary policy transmission [13].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - In April 2025, the central bank conducted an MLF injection of 600 billion yuan, with a net injection of 500 billion yuan after deducting the maturity amount. The central bank showed a loose liquidity stance, and the bond issuance schedule may be a key factor in judging the window period of monetary easing [1][16]. - The issuance of local special - purpose bonds in 2025 has mainly been for replacing hidden debts so far. A larger - scale issuance is expected after the Politburo meeting at the end of April. May - June will be an important window period for monetary easing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is still needed for a large - scale one - time liquidity release [2][17][21]. - In the context of the gradual strengthening of fiscal policy, monetary policy needs to cooperate through a reserve requirement ratio cut, but interest rate cuts need to wait due to the unclear outlook of tariffs. It is recommended to pay attention to the April PMI to be released next week [3][22]. - This week, the yields of short - and long - term US Treasury bonds continued to decline, and the curve flattened. US Treasury bonds still have relatively high allocation attractiveness. It is recommended to continue to be bullish on US Treasury bonds and gold, and be neutral on the US dollar [4][23][25]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 One - Week Views - **Policy Rhythm Assessment**: In April 2025, the MLF was over - renewed by 500 billion yuan, showing a loose liquidity attitude. The bond issuance schedule is crucial for judging the monetary easing window period. The issuance of local special - purpose bonds has mainly been for debt replacement, and a larger - scale issuance is expected after the Politburo meeting. May - June will be a key window for monetary easing, and a reserve requirement ratio cut is necessary for large - scale liquidity release [1][2][16][17]. - **US Treasury Yield Outlook**: This week, the yields of short - and long - term US Treasury bonds declined, and the curve flattened. US Treasury bonds have high allocation attractiveness. Non - US economies' fiscal policies may raise the interest rate center in the medium term. It is recommended to be bullish on US Treasury bonds and gold and neutral on the US dollar. The US housing market, consumer confidence, and Fed's interest - rate policy all show complex trends [4][23][25]. 3.2 Domestic and Foreign Data Summaries 3.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - **Open - Market Operations**: From April 21 - 25, 2025, the total net injection through open - market operations was 67.4 billion yuan. The central bank's open - market operations have maintained a rhythm of net withdrawal in the first half of the week and net injection in the second half [40]. - **Interest Rates**: The money - market interest rates and bond yields showed certain fluctuations. For example, the yields of some bonds such as national debt and policy - bank bonds generally increased [53][119][121]. 3.2.2 Domestic and Foreign Macroeconomic Data Tracking - **Real - Estate Market**: The total transaction area of commercial housing decreased. Steel prices and LME non - ferrous metal futures official prices increased. The prices of coking coal and thermal coal showed certain trends, and the yields of inter - bank certificates of deposit and Yu'E Bao also changed [62][63][64]. 3.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 3.3.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Issuance Scale**: A total of 47 local bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with an issuance amount of 191.123 billion yuan, a repayment amount of 28.61 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 162.512 billion yuan. The main investment direction is comprehensive [78]. - **Provincial Distribution**: Nine provinces and cities issued local bonds this week. Shandong, Anhui, and Jiangsu ranked in the top three in terms of issuance amount. Four provinces and cities issued special refinancing bonds for replacing hidden debts, with Anhui, Shandong, and Jiangsu ranking in the top three [81][85]. 3.3.2 Secondary - Market Overview - **Trading Volume and Turnover Rate**: The stock of local bonds this week was 50.4 trillion yuan, the trading volume was 405.906 billion yuan, and the turnover rate was 0.81%. The top three provinces with active trading were Shandong, Jiangsu, and Guangdong. The top three active trading terms were 30Y, 10Y, and 20Y [95]. - **Yield Changes**: The yields of local bonds generally increased this week [98]. 3.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan No detailed information was provided in the text. 3.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 3.4.1 Primary - Market Issuance Overview - **Total Issuance**: A total of 554 credit bonds were issued in the primary market this week, with a total issuance amount of 546.509 billion yuan, a total repayment amount of 430.577 billion yuan, and a net financing amount of 115.933 billion yuan, an increase of 22.933 billion yuan compared with last week [102]. - **Bond - Type Breakdown**: The net financing amount of short - term financing bills was 34.145 billion yuan, medium - term notes was 65.393 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was - 13.5378 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 50.445 billion yuan, and private placement notes was - 20.513 billion yuan [107]. 3.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates The actual issuance interest rates of various bond types increased to varying degrees this week. For example, the issuance interest rate of short - term financing bills increased by 2.54 BP, and that of medium - term notes increased by 2.28 BP [117]. 3.4.3 Secondary - Market Transaction Overview The total trading volume of credit bonds this week was 595.007 billion yuan. The trading volume of short - term financing bills was 174.025 billion yuan, medium - term notes was 298.665 billion yuan, enterprise bonds was 138.86 billion yuan, corporate bonds was 443.31 billion yuan, and private placement notes was 641.01 billion yuan [118]. 3.4.4 Maturity Yields The maturity yields of various bonds such as national development bank bonds, short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally increased this week [119][121][122][124]. 3.4.5 Credit Spreads The credit spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds generally widened this week [125][129][131]. 3.4.6 Grade Spreads The grade spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, enterprise bonds, and urban investment bonds showed a differentiated trend this week [136][140][145]. 3.4.7 Trading Activity The industrial sector had the largest weekly trading volume of bonds this week, reaching 369.774 billion yuan, followed by public utilities, finance, materials, and optional consumption [149]. 3.4.8 Subject Rating Changes There were no downgrades or upgrades of issuer subject ratings or outlooks this week [151].