Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the non-ferrous metals industry [6] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to potential price fluctuations. As industrial product prices rise, domestic downstream negative feedback is increasing, resulting in accelerated inventory accumulation. Recent margin increases by CME and SHFE for certain products may lead to significant short-term price volatility in industrial metals. However, the overall bullish trend for industrial products remains unchanged under the expectation of supportive policies [3][9] Summary by Sections 1. Cycle Assessment - Liquidity expectations are reverting, which does not hinder the long-term bullish logic. Recent statements from Trump favoring Hassett for the National Economic Council position have increased market expectations for the new Fed chair. The probability of a Fed rate cut in April has dropped to 30%. This has led to potential price fluctuations in precious metals due to a weakened narrative around short-term rate cuts [9][13] 2. Industry and Stock Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector rose by 3.03% in the week ending January 16, ranking third among all industries [18] 3. Precious Metals - Short-term narratives around rate cuts are faltering, leading to potential price volatility in precious metals. As of January 16, SHFE gold rose by 2.57% to 1,032.32 CNY per gram, while COMEX gold increased by 2.62% to 4,590.00 USD per ounce. The report notes that the People's Bank of China increased its gold reserves to 7,415 million ounces, marking a continuous increase for 14 months [14][29] 4. Copper - The report highlights that negative feedback is intensifying, leading to increased price volatility for copper. As of January 16, SHFE copper fell by 0.63% to 100,770 CNY per ton, while LME copper decreased by 1.50% to 12,803 USD per ton. The report also notes a significant increase in global visible copper inventory [17][28] 5. Aluminum - The aluminum processing sector shows resilience, with profitability per ton of aluminum expected to remain high. As of January 16, SHFE aluminum fell by 1.66% to 23,925 CNY per ton. The report indicates that the average profit for the aluminum industry is around 7,868 CNY per ton [16][89]

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the unexpected market reaction to employment data and Federal Reserve officials' comments, indicating a shift in market sentiment away from traditional economic indicators [3][4]. - Initial data showed that the number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits fell to 198,000, below all economists' expectations, suggesting a stable labor market [3]. - Federal Reserve officials, including Chicago Fed President Goolsbee and Kansas City Fed President Schmidt, emphasized the need for continued restrictive policies due to high inflation, indicating no urgency for interest rate cuts [3][4]. Group 2 - Following the employment data release, gold prices dropped over $60, and the dollar index reached a new high since December 9 of the previous year, but this trend reversed within an hour, showcasing a rapid change in market dynamics [4]. - The article suggests that the market is no longer responding to traditional narratives of data influencing rates and asset prices, indicating a broader shift in investor sentiment towards trends and positions rather than policy narratives [4]. - The publication of a market strategy report titled "Global Market Strategy: Storm Radius, Red Alert" indicates that while prices remain in a normal range, market sentiment has already entered a state of alert [4].

Group 1: Oracle's Stock Performance - Oracle's stock surged to a historic high, closing at $328.62 per share, a 36.07% increase, with a market capitalization reaching $923 billion, equivalent to over 65,000 million RMB [3][4] - The stock price increase was driven by a significant rise in unconfirmed performance obligations, which exceeded $440 billion, a 359% increase year-over-year, attributed to major cloud contracts signed during the reporting period [3] - Oracle's CEO, Safra Catz, projected that the unfulfilled performance obligations will lead to rapid expansion in the cloud infrastructure business, with expected revenue growth of 77% to $18 billion in fiscal year 2026, and reaching $144 billion by fiscal year 2030 [3] Group 2: Financial Performance - For the first quarter of fiscal year 2026, Oracle reported total revenue of $14.926 billion, a year-over-year increase of 12.17%, while net profit slightly decreased to $2.927 billion from $2.929 billion in the previous year [3] - Oracle's overall revenue for fiscal year 2025 was $57.399 billion, reflecting an 8.38% year-over-year growth, with net profit increasing by 18.88% to $12.443 billion [4] Group 3: Market Context - The broader U.S. stock market showed mixed performance, with major indices fluctuating, while large tech stocks generally declined [5][7] - The semiconductor sector saw most stocks rise, with notable increases in companies like Broadcom and ARM [7]