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工业硅/多晶硅周度报告:新疆大厂缓慢复产组件终端激烈博弈-20250901
Dong Zheng Qi Huo· 2025-09-01 05:33
Report Industry Investment Rating - Industrial silicon: Oscillation [1] - Polysilicon: Oscillation [1] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The resumption rhythm of large factories in Xinjiang still affects the fundamental changes of industrial silicon. The price of industrial silicon may fluctuate between 8,200 - 9,200 yuan/ton in the short - term. For polysilicon, the spot price may remain firm under the narrative of capacity restructuring, and the price may operate between 46,000 - 55,000 yuan/ton [1][2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon Industry Chain Prices - The Si2511 contract of industrial silicon decreased by 355 yuan/ton to 8,390 yuan/ton week - on - week. The SMM spot average price of East China oxygen - passing 553 decreased by 200 yuan/ton to 9,050 yuan/ton, and the price of Xinjiang 99 remained flat at 8,450 yuan/ton. The PS2511 contract of polysilicon decreased by 1,850 yuan/ton to 49,555 yuan/ton, and the transaction price of N - type re - feeding material remained flat at 47,900 yuan/ton [8][9] 2. Slow Resumption of Large Factories in Xinjiang and Fierce Game at the Component Terminal Industrial Silicon - The main contract of industrial silicon futures fluctuated and declined this week. Xinjiang and Ningxia added 8 and 1 furnaces respectively, while Yunnan and Sichuan reduced 1 furnace each. Large factories in Xinjiang resumed 4 furnaces, with slow increase in operation, lower than expected. Southern operation remained stable, and some silicon factories may reduce production in the dry season at the end of October. The SMM industrial silicon social inventory decreased by 0.20 million tons week - on - week, and the sample factory inventory decreased by 0.16 million tons. It is estimated that industrial silicon will destock about 10,000 tons in August. If the operation of large factories in Xinjiang remains unchanged, it may accumulate about 30,000 tons from September to October and destock about 100,000 tons from November to December. However, if large factories in Xinjiang resume full production, it may be difficult to destock during the dry season [1][10] Organic Silicon - The price of organic silicon fluctuated this week. Due to equipment maintenance, the weekly output decreased. The overall enterprise operation rate was 72.71%, and the weekly output was 48,100 tons, a decrease of 4.37% week - on - week. New orders were limited, and inventory slightly accumulated. It is expected that the price of organic silicon will oscillate at a low level [10][11] Polysilicon - The main contract of polysilicon futures fluctuated downward this week. The average spot transaction price increased due to downstream restocking. As of the end of August, the factory inventory of polysilicon enterprises was 213,000 tons, and the downstream raw material inventory may rise to 220,000 - 250,000 tons. The production in September may increase to 132,000 tons. There are rumors of strict production and sales restrictions starting from September. The first - stage price regulation of polysilicon "anti - involution" is basically determined, and the second - stage upward force may come from the relief fund and capacity restructuring plan [2][12] Silicon Wafers - The transaction price of silicon wafers increased this week. The inventory of silicon wafer factories was 18.05GW as of August 28, an increase of 0.64GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Battery Cells - The transaction price of battery cells increased this week. The inventory of Chinese photovoltaic battery export factories was 7.03GW as of August 25, an increase of 1.22GW month - on - month. The production in September may increase, and the price is expected to remain stable in the short - term [13] Components - The component price increased slightly this week. New orders were few, and most were executing previous orders. The centralized project delivery price was around 0.68 - 0.69 yuan/watt, and some distributed projects could accept prices above 0.7 yuan/watt. Component and terminal are in a fierce game. Component prices are expected to rise, but terminal demand may decline [14] 3. Investment Suggestions - Industrial silicon: Pay attention to the resumption progress of large factories in Xinjiang and focus on range - trading opportunities. - Polysilicon: Adopt a callback - buying strategy. Consider 11 - 12 reverse arbitrage opportunities at around - 2,000 yuan/ton [3][15] 4. Hot News Sorting - The winning candidates for the second batch of photovoltaic project component procurement of China Resources Power in 2025 were announced. - Daquan Energy's revenue in the first half of 2025 was 1.47 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 67.93%. The company will continue the production - reduction strategy in the third quarter [16] 5. High - Frequency Data Tracking of the Industry Chain - The report provides multiple charts to track high - frequency data of industrial silicon, organic silicon, polysilicon, silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, including prices, production, inventory, and profit data [17][26][30][34][40][48]
硅业分会:多晶硅价格仍有上涨动力支撑
Zhong Zheng Wang· 2025-08-20 10:56
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the price of polysilicon is experiencing an upward trend due to regulatory support and production limitations [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is reported to be between 45,000 to 52,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 47,900 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1] - The number of companies signing polysilicon contracts this week is six, with market prices showing stability and slight increases, particularly in small orders which have risen by 1 to 2 yuan per kilogram [1] Group 2 - The number of polysilicon producers remains at nine, maintaining an expected output of approximately 125,000 tons for August [2] - If the "production and sales limits" are effectively implemented in September, monthly output is expected to remain stable, although the current supply exceeds demand, leading to continued inventory accumulation [2] - Despite ongoing inventory pressure, the average price of polysilicon is expected to have upward support due to market expectations and increased costs from production limitations [2]
硅业分会:市场预期向好 多晶硅小单延续涨势
智通财经网· 2025-08-20 08:25
Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon continues to rise due to supply-demand dynamics and regulatory support in the photovoltaic industry [2] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 45,000 to 52,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 47,900 CNY/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 45,000 to 47,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 46,000 CNY/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.37% [1] - The number of companies signing contracts for polysilicon this week is six, indicating a stable yet rising market price [1] Market Dynamics - The price increase is supported by a joint meeting of six ministries aimed at regulating competition in the photovoltaic industry, signaling a commitment to avoid excessive competition [2] - Polysilicon companies are implementing production and sales restrictions, alleviating market pressure on supply and demand [2] - Major polysilicon producers are reducing production, which is expected to increase overall costs and lead to higher market prices due to regulatory constraints [2] Production and Inventory - The number of polysilicon producers remains at nine, with an expected production of approximately 125,000 tons in August [2] - If production and sales restrictions are effectively implemented in September, monthly output is expected to remain stable, but the current oversupply situation has not improved significantly [2] - Industry inventory is projected to continue accumulating, with an estimated increase of about 20,000 tons from August to September [2] Price Statistics - The highest and lowest transaction prices for n-type polysilicon are 52,000 CNY/ton and 45,000 CNY/ton, respectively, with an average price of 47,900 CNY/ton [3] - The price fluctuations for n-type granular silicon show a highest price of 47,000 CNY/ton and a lowest price of 45,000 CNY/ton, with an average price increase of 3.37% [3] Participating Companies - The companies involved in the price statistics include Sichuan Yongxiang Co., Ltd., GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited, and Xinjiang Goin Technology Co., Ltd., among others [4]
[安泰科]多晶硅周评-市场预期向好 小单延续涨势 (2025年8月20日)
中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会· 2025-08-20 08:21
Core Viewpoint - The price of polysilicon continues to rise due to supply constraints and positive market signals from government initiatives aimed at regulating the photovoltaic industry [1][2]. Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type recycled polysilicon is between 45,000 to 52,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 47,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.05% [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 45,000 to 47,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 46,000 yuan/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.37% [1][3]. - The number of companies signing contracts for polysilicon this week is six, indicating a stable yet rising market price [1]. Market Dynamics - The increase in polysilicon prices is attributed to a joint meeting by six ministries to discuss the photovoltaic industry, signaling a commitment to regulate competition and reduce "involution" [1]. - Polysilicon companies are implementing production and sales restrictions, alleviating market pressure on supply and demand [1][2]. - Major polysilicon producers are reducing output, which is expected to lead to increased overall costs and a regulatory environment that prevents sales below comprehensive costs [1][2]. Inventory and Production Outlook - The number of operating polysilicon companies remains at nine, maintaining an output expectation of around 125,000 tons for August [2]. - If production and sales restrictions are effectively implemented in September, monthly output is expected to remain stable, but the current oversupply situation has not improved significantly, leading to an anticipated inventory increase of approximately 20,000 tons for August and September combined [2].