| 国内太阳能级多晶硅成交价 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产品 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 均价 | 波动 | 波动% | | n型复投料成交价 | 5.30 | 4.50 | 4.83 | -0.34 | -6.58% | | n型致密料成交价 | 5.00 | 4.20 | 4.54 | -0.30 | -6.20% | | n型颗粒硅成交价 | 4.50 | 4.30 | 4.40 | -0.65 | -12.87% | | 单位:万元/吨 | | | | 更新日期: | 2026-3-4 | 据安泰科统计，本周多晶硅 n型复投料成交价格区间为 4.5 - 5.3 万元 /吨，成交均 价为 4.83 万元 /吨 ， 环比下滑 6.58% ； n型颗粒硅成交价格区间为 4.3 - 4.5 万元 / 吨，成交均价为 4.40 万元 /吨 ， 环比下滑 12.87% 。 本周市场活跃度较节前略有提升，共有 2-3家企业达成批量订单，部分企业以执 行交付为主。成交量提升并非由于需求好转，而是部分企业为缓解库存压力，选择 降价以促成交易， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the domestic polysilicon market is experiencing a lack of significant trading activity, with prices remaining stable due to cautious sentiment among upstream and downstream enterprises [1][2] - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon re-investment material is reported at 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 59,200 yuan/ton, showing no change compared to the previous period [1][3] - The market is currently in a critical phase of supply-demand rebalancing, with expectations that polysilicon prices will remain stable in the short term, influenced by actual changes in downstream operating rates and demand recovery [2] Group 2 - In January, some leading companies are expected to fully halt production for up to six months, while others will implement significant production cuts, leading to a forecasted monthly polysilicon output of 70,000 - 90,000 tons in Q1 2026 [2] - The supply-demand dynamics are expected to provide important bottom support for the market, as silicon wafer production remains relatively stable and social inventory begins to decrease slightly [2] - The market participants are currently awaiting clearer demand signals, which will determine future price fluctuations based on the evolving supply-demand landscape [2]

1. Report's Investment Rating for the Industry - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy has shifted from anti - involution to anti - monopoly, breaking the strong cost - support logic. The adjustment of the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic products is a further negative factor. With strict risk control by the exchange, it is recommended to wait and see. Although the spot price of polysilicon is at a high level, the fundamental performance is weak. The expected production of polysilicon in January is about 100,000 tons, which can meet at least 40GW of terminal demand. The downstream has entered a cycle of production cuts. The sharp rise in silver prices has squeezed the profits of photovoltaic main products, and terminal demand is in the off - season. The expected production of silicon wafers, cells, and components is 46.18GW, 39.06GW, and 31.14GW respectively. The spot inventory of polysilicon in the second week of January was 311,800 tons [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Performance - The futures price of polysilicon continued to decline. The closing price of the PS2605 contract was 49,005 yuan/ton, with a decline of 4.45%. The trading volume was 28,379 lots, the open interest was 48,844 lots, with a net increase of 14 lots. The top 20 long positions had a net increase of 172 lots, and the top 20 short positions had a net decrease of 279 lots [4]. 3.2 Spot Prices - The transaction price range of polysilicon n - type re - feedstock was 50,000 - 63,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 59,200 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 9.83%. The transaction price range of n - type granular silicon was 50,000 - 64,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 55,800 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.5% [4]. 3.3 Market News - On January 13, the number of polysilicon warehouse receipts was 4,460 lots, an increase of 30 lots compared with the previous trading day [5]. - On January 9, the Ministry of Finance's official website released an announcement on adjusting the export tax - rebate policy for photovoltaic and other products. Starting from April 1, 2026, the VAT export tax - rebate for photovoltaic and other products will be cancelled. The current VAT export tax - rebate rate for photovoltaic products is 9%. In November 2015, 2024, the export tax - rebate for photovoltaic products decreased from 13% to 9% [5].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market in China has experienced a slight price increase, indicating a recovery in market confidence after three months of stability [3][7]. Price Summary - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 50,000 to 56,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,900 yuan/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 1.32% [1][5]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 50,500 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week [1][5]. - The transaction price for n-type dense material is between 48,000 to 53,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 50,300 yuan/ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 1.21% [2][6]. Market Dynamics - The number of mainstream signing enterprises has slightly increased week-on-week, with most orders being for December, and transaction prices have risen by 1-2 yuan/kg [3][7]. - The polysilicon market has ended its previous three-month stability, with prices rising slightly and transaction volumes recovering, driven by three main factors: 1. To match the traditional off-season demand in Q1 2026, polysilicon companies are continuing to implement production cuts and sales control strategies, with expected production and shipment scale in January 2026 to be significantly reduced to 60,000-80,000 tons, effectively alleviating supply pressure [3][7]. 2. Production cuts have led to an increase in the comprehensive cost of polysilicon products, prompting price adjustments based on a pricing mechanism that covers costs [3][7]. 3. Both upstream and downstream companies recognize the importance of maintaining price stability to avoid negative chain reactions, with the recent price increase providing support for price stabilization across downstream sectors [3][7]. Future Outlook - The slight increase in polysilicon prices and moderate transaction volume suggest that market confidence is gradually recovering. In the short term, the polysilicon market is expected to achieve dual stabilization in both volume and price due to proactive supply tightening and smoother price transmission downstream [3][7].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a downturn, while polysilicon futures show a strong performance with a significant increase of 3.45%, closing at 55,610.0 yuan/ton [1] - The spot prices for polysilicon, as reported by Jianxin Futures, show that the transaction price range for n-type re-investment materials is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining stable month-on-month [1] - The production of polysilicon is expected to continue declining in December, although some production capacity in the northwest is anticipated to ramp up, limiting the extent of the decline [1] Group 2 - Demand analysis from Ruida Futures indicates a differentiated demand pattern in the core downstream photovoltaic industry, with weak terminal demand and stable intermediate demand [1] - Domestic terminal installation demand is slow due to factors such as land approval and electricity price policies, while the overseas European market is experiencing a slowdown in installation growth due to falling energy prices and subsidy reductions [1] - The cautious optimism regarding polysilicon is based on the expectation that supply-side constraints will not lead to significant production cuts or price increases, as the current weak demand cycle limits the potential for unexpected supply or demand policies to alter the market dynamics [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market is currently exhibiting a weak and stable trend, with prices remaining steady despite a decline in downstream prices and production cuts by some silicon wafer companies due to weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan per ton, remaining flat week-on-week [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan per ton, also remaining flat week-on-week [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has contracted significantly, with expectations that domestic polysilicon production will drop to below 120,000 tons in November, representing a month-on-month decrease of approximately 14% [1][2]. - Despite recent production cuts in downstream sectors, the overall tolerance for supply-demand changes among upstream and downstream companies remains high due to already high social inventory levels [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The strong willingness to maintain prices among polysilicon companies is a significant factor, as price declines could disrupt the stabilization expectations that have been gradually established since July [1][2]. - It is anticipated that polysilicon prices will continue to maintain a weak and stable operational pattern in the short term, supported by supply contraction and a consensus on maintaining overall stability in the industry chain [2].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a strong performance, with polysilicon futures rising significantly by 3.86% to 54,280.0 CNY/ton [1] - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon was reported between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,200 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [1] - Production in October was 137,000 tons, with expectations of a reduction in the southwestern region in November, projecting a monthly output of around 120,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The market sentiment for polysilicon futures is influenced by marginal changes in photovoltaic capacity control expectations, leading to a rebound above 53,000 CNY/ton [2] - The supply and demand dynamics are characterized by weakness on both sides, with seasonal production cuts expected in the southwestern region and simultaneous reductions in silicon wafer and module production [2] - High inventory levels of polysilicon are limiting price declines, suggesting that prices will likely remain in a fluctuating pattern in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market is maintaining a weak and stable pattern, with prices remaining steady despite fluctuations caused by declining prices in downstream silicon wafers and battery cells [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 CNY per ton, showing no change from the previous week [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 CNY per ton, also remaining stable week-on-week [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall market condition remains characterized by an oversupply, with high inventory pressure persisting [2] - Although price reductions and production cuts in downstream sectors may weaken short-term demand for polysilicon, companies are not in a hurry to lower prices to clear inventory due to already high social inventory levels [2] - Despite the prevailing pessimistic sentiment in the market, actual operations are expected to remain stable, with low likelihood of significant price fluctuations due to ongoing production cuts and policy support from suppliers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of n-type polysilicon remains stable this week, with transaction prices ranging from 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, and an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan per ton, showing no change compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 and 51,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 50,500 yuan per ton, also remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The average price of n-type polysilicon is 53,200 yuan per ton, indicating a stable market condition [1] Group 2: Production Data - There are currently 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers in operation [1] - The domestic polysilicon production in October is approximately 137,000 tons, which is a 6.2% increase month-on-month and 5.4% higher than expected [1] - The increase in production is attributed to some companies slightly raising their operating rates to dilute costs as they enter the fourth quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon industry is undergoing a critical period of structural transformation, with market dynamics closely monitored due to its significance in the photovoltaic supply chain [1]. Market Performance - The average transaction price of polysilicon remained stable week-on-week, with n-type re-investment material priced between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY per ton, averaging 53,200 CNY per ton, and n-type granular silicon priced between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY per ton, averaging 50,500 CNY per ton [1]. - Despite an increase in the number of mainstream signing companies from 2-3 to 5-6, overall market transactions remain relatively sluggish, indicating weak terminal demand [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand outlook for the fourth quarter is weak, with limited growth in battery component orders and stable operating rates for silicon wafer companies, leading to steady overall demand for upstream silicon materials [1]. - In the first three quarters of the year, the domestic polysilicon industry has reduced inventory by approximately 12,000 tons, but there was a slight inventory accumulation of about 12,000 tons in September [2]. - The polysilicon production is expected to peak in October, with a slight increase in output due to the resumption of production by three companies, followed by a gradual decline in November and December [2]. Production Forecast - The domestic polysilicon production for the fourth quarter is projected to be around 382,000 tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0% [2]. - By 2025, the annual domestic polysilicon production is expected to be approximately 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3%, indicating a slight oversupply compared to demand [2]. Company Performance - Companies in the upstream sector are showing signs of performance recovery due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts and stabilization of industry prices [2]. - For instance, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited reported an unaudited profit of approximately 960 million CNY in its photovoltaic materials business for the third quarter of 2025, recovering from a loss of about 1.81 billion CNY in the same period last year [2]. Pricing and Cost Analysis - In the third quarter of 2025, GCL-Poly's average external selling price for granular silicon (including tax) was 42.12 CNY per kilogram, a 30% increase from 32.93 CNY per kilogram in the second quarter [3]. - The average production cash cost for granular silicon (including R&D costs) decreased to 24.16 CNY per kilogram from 25.31 CNY per kilogram in the previous quarter, reflecting a reduction of approximately 5 percentage points [3].