来源：上海证券报·中国证券网 上证报中国证券网讯（邱思雨 记者 操子怡）12月24日，中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会（简称"硅业分 会"）发布多晶硅周评。 本周（12月18日至12月24日）多晶硅n型复投料成交价格区间为5.0-5.6万元/吨，成交均价为5.39万元/吨， 周环比上涨1.32%。n型颗粒硅成交价格区间为5.0-5.1万元/吨，成交均价为5.05万元/吨，环比持平。 | 国内太阳能级多晶硅成交价 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 产品 | 最高价 | 最低价 | 均价 | 波动 | 波动% | | n型复投料成交价 | 5.60 | 5.00 | 5.39 | +0.07 | +1.32% | | n型致密料成交价 | 5.30 | 4.80 | 5.03 | +0.06 | +1.21% | | p型多晶硅成交价 | | | | | | | n型颗粒硅成交价 | 5.10 | 5.00 | 5.05 | 0.00 | 0.00% | | 单位:万元/吨 | | | | 更新日期: | 2025-12-24 | 据硅业分会统计， ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals is experiencing a downturn, while polysilicon futures show a strong performance with a significant increase of 3.45%, closing at 55,610.0 yuan/ton [1] - The spot prices for polysilicon, as reported by Jianxin Futures, show that the transaction price range for n-type re-investment materials is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, remaining stable month-on-month [1] - The production of polysilicon is expected to continue declining in December, although some production capacity in the northwest is anticipated to ramp up, limiting the extent of the decline [1] Group 2 - Demand analysis from Ruida Futures indicates a differentiated demand pattern in the core downstream photovoltaic industry, with weak terminal demand and stable intermediate demand [1] - Domestic terminal installation demand is slow due to factors such as land approval and electricity price policies, while the overseas European market is experiencing a slowdown in installation growth due to falling energy prices and subsidy reductions [1] - The cautious optimism regarding polysilicon is based on the expectation that supply-side constraints will not lead to significant production cuts or price increases, as the current weak demand cycle limits the potential for unexpected supply or demand policies to alter the market dynamics [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market is currently exhibiting a weak and stable trend, with prices remaining steady despite a decline in downstream prices and production cuts by some silicon wafer companies due to weak demand [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan per ton, remaining flat week-on-week [1]. - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 yuan per ton, also remaining flat week-on-week [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side has contracted significantly, with expectations that domestic polysilicon production will drop to below 120,000 tons in November, representing a month-on-month decrease of approximately 14% [1][2]. - Despite recent production cuts in downstream sectors, the overall tolerance for supply-demand changes among upstream and downstream companies remains high due to already high social inventory levels [2]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The strong willingness to maintain prices among polysilicon companies is a significant factor, as price declines could disrupt the stabilization expectations that have been gradually established since July [1][2]. - It is anticipated that polysilicon prices will continue to maintain a weak and stable operational pattern in the short term, supported by supply contraction and a consensus on maintaining overall stability in the industry chain [2].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals showed a strong performance, with polysilicon futures rising significantly by 3.86% to 54,280.0 CNY/ton [1] - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon was reported between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY/ton, with an average price of 53,200 CNY/ton, remaining stable week-on-week [1] - Production in October was 137,000 tons, with expectations of a reduction in the southwestern region in November, projecting a monthly output of around 120,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The market sentiment for polysilicon futures is influenced by marginal changes in photovoltaic capacity control expectations, leading to a rebound above 53,000 CNY/ton [2] - The supply and demand dynamics are characterized by weakness on both sides, with seasonal production cuts expected in the southwestern region and simultaneous reductions in silicon wafer and module production [2] - High inventory levels of polysilicon are limiting price declines, suggesting that prices will likely remain in a fluctuating pattern in the short term [2]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic polysilicon market is maintaining a weak and stable pattern, with prices remaining steady despite fluctuations caused by declining prices in downstream silicon wafers and battery cells [1][2] Group 1: Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type polysilicon is between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 CNY per ton, showing no change from the previous week [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY per ton, with an average transaction price of 50,500 CNY per ton, also remaining stable week-on-week [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The overall market condition remains characterized by an oversupply, with high inventory pressure persisting [2] - Although price reductions and production cuts in downstream sectors may weaken short-term demand for polysilicon, companies are not in a hurry to lower prices to clear inventory due to already high social inventory levels [2] - Despite the prevailing pessimistic sentiment in the market, actual operations are expected to remain stable, with low likelihood of significant price fluctuations due to ongoing production cuts and policy support from suppliers [2]

Core Viewpoint - The price of n-type polysilicon remains stable this week, with transaction prices ranging from 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, and an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan per ton, showing no change compared to the previous week [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 and 51,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 50,500 yuan per ton, also remaining stable week-on-week [1] - The average price of n-type polysilicon is 53,200 yuan per ton, indicating a stable market condition [1] Group 2: Production Data - There are currently 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers in operation [1] - The domestic polysilicon production in October is approximately 137,000 tons, which is a 6.2% increase month-on-month and 5.4% higher than expected [1] - The increase in production is attributed to some companies slightly raising their operating rates to dilute costs as they enter the fourth quarter [1]

Core Viewpoint - The polysilicon industry is undergoing a critical period of structural transformation, with market dynamics closely monitored due to its significance in the photovoltaic supply chain [1]. Market Performance - The average transaction price of polysilicon remained stable week-on-week, with n-type re-investment material priced between 49,000 to 55,000 CNY per ton, averaging 53,200 CNY per ton, and n-type granular silicon priced between 50,000 to 51,000 CNY per ton, averaging 50,500 CNY per ton [1]. - Despite an increase in the number of mainstream signing companies from 2-3 to 5-6, overall market transactions remain relatively sluggish, indicating weak terminal demand [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The demand outlook for the fourth quarter is weak, with limited growth in battery component orders and stable operating rates for silicon wafer companies, leading to steady overall demand for upstream silicon materials [1]. - In the first three quarters of the year, the domestic polysilicon industry has reduced inventory by approximately 12,000 tons, but there was a slight inventory accumulation of about 12,000 tons in September [2]. - The polysilicon production is expected to peak in October, with a slight increase in output due to the resumption of production by three companies, followed by a gradual decline in November and December [2]. Production Forecast - The domestic polysilicon production for the fourth quarter is projected to be around 382,000 tons, a slight year-on-year increase of 3.0% [2]. - By 2025, the annual domestic polysilicon production is expected to be approximately 1.34 million tons, a significant year-on-year decrease of 27.3%, indicating a slight oversupply compared to demand [2]. Company Performance - Companies in the upstream sector are showing signs of performance recovery due to the ongoing "anti-involution" efforts and stabilization of industry prices [2]. - For instance, GCL-Poly Energy Holdings Limited reported an unaudited profit of approximately 960 million CNY in its photovoltaic materials business for the third quarter of 2025, recovering from a loss of about 1.81 billion CNY in the same period last year [2]. Pricing and Cost Analysis - In the third quarter of 2025, GCL-Poly's average external selling price for granular silicon (including tax) was 42.12 CNY per kilogram, a 30% increase from 32.93 CNY per kilogram in the second quarter [3]. - The average production cash cost for granular silicon (including R&D costs) decreased to 24.16 CNY per kilogram from 25.31 CNY per kilogram in the previous quarter, reflecting a reduction of approximately 5 percentage points [3].

Core Insights - The price range for n-type polysilicon raw materials is reported to be between 49,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan per ton, remaining stable compared to the previous week [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 50,000 to 51,000 yuan per ton, with an average price of 50,500 yuan per ton, also showing no change week-on-week [1] - The overall transaction volume in the domestic polysilicon market is reported to be light, with a decrease in order volume and a reduction in the number of main signing enterprises to 2-3 [1] Market Dynamics - The stability in prices is influenced by two main factors: firstly, the operating rate of silicon wafer enterprises remains stable, and they hold a considerable amount of polysilicon inventory, leading to steady procurement demand [1] - Secondly, some silicon material companies are undergoing maintenance or production cuts, resulting in their available sales volume nearing its limit, which has led to fewer new orders being signed recently, with only a small number of supply orders being completed [1] - The delivery period for these orders has been extended to November [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent upward trend in polysilicon prices is supported by tightening supply and optimistic market expectations following the release of new energy consumption standards by the National Standardization Administration [2][3] Group 1: Polysilicon Market Dynamics - Recent transaction prices for polysilicon n-type recycled materials range from 51,000 to 55,000 yuan/ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan/ton, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 8.57% [2] - N-type granular silicon has a transaction price range of 49,000 to 50,000 yuan/ton, with an average price of 49,500 yuan/ton, showing a month-on-month increase of 3.13% [2] - The price increase is attributed to first-tier companies reaching their sales limits, leading to a temporary tightening of market supply, while second-tier companies are beginning to secure orders [2] Group 2: New Energy Consumption Standards - On September 16, the National Standardization Administration released a draft for mandatory national standards, lowering the energy consumption limits for polysilicon production [3] - The new standards set the energy consumption for trichlorosilane polysilicon at 5/5.5/6.4 kgce/kg for different production levels, down from previous limits of 7.5/8.5/10.5 kgce/kg [3] - The effective polysilicon production capacity in China is expected to decrease to approximately 2.4 million tons per year, a reduction of 16.4% compared to the end of 2024 [3] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - In the photovoltaic sector, it is recommended to focus on leading companies such as Tongwei Co. and GCL-Poly Energy, while in the photovoltaic glass segment, attention should be given to Fuyao Glass [5] - For humanoid robotics, core companies with high supply chain certainty and significant value in the industrial chain, such as Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control, are recommended [5] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - The overall outlook for the electric power equipment sector is maintained as "recommended" [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in multi-crystalline silicon prices indicates a tightening supply situation in the market, driven by limited sales capacity of leading companies and optimistic industry sentiment due to supportive national policies [1] Price Trends - The transaction price range for n-type re-investment material is between 51,000 to 55,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 53,200 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8.57% [1] - The transaction price range for n-type granular silicon is between 49,000 to 50,000 yuan per ton, with an average transaction price of 49,500 yuan per ton, showing a week-on-week increase of 3.13% [1] Market Dynamics - The signing volume in the domestic multi-crystalline silicon market remained stable compared to the previous week, but the number of mainstream signing companies increased to six [1] - The market is experiencing a phase of tight supply, as some leading companies have reached their sales limits, leading to increased transactions from second-tier companies [1] - The overall industry sentiment is optimistic regarding future market conditions, supported by recent national industrial policies [1]