2025 年 09 月 17 日 财政"下半场"，可能的"后手"？ ——"大国财政"系列之四 宏 观 研 究 "大国财政"系列 2025 年上半年财政"前置"发力为经济注入较强支撑。下半年，财政政策"工具箱"还有哪些潜在"后 手"？本文系统梳理，供参考。 一、上半年经济，不可忽视的财政力量？ 财政"前置"发力，为上半年经济提供有力支撑 2025 年上半年，经济呈现韧性，背后财政"前置"支撑作用显著。上半年广义财政支出增速达 8.9%，高 于名义 GDP 增速 4.3%，且远超 2022 年以来 1 - 3% 的年均增速。资金来源主要依靠政府债务及结转 资金。6 月，广义财政收支差为 - 5.3 万亿元，创同期最高，其中一般财政收支差 - 2.6 万亿元，政府性 基金收支差 - 2.7 万亿元，或表明国债、特别国债等有力支撑了广义财政。 2025 年上半年财政支出呈节奏前置、投向分化特征。节奏上，"化债"资金落地较快，缓解地方及企业 资金压力。截至 6 月底，置换隐性债务的特殊再融资专项债发行近 1.8 万亿元，进度近 90%；特殊新增专 项债中超 4600 亿元，进度 58%。结构上，资金重点投向产业升级与民 ...

Inflation Trends - August CPI fell significantly by 0.4 percentage points to -0.4%, the lowest in nearly six months, primarily due to low food prices[3] - Core CPI improved slightly by 0.1 percentage points to 0.9%, driven by rising gold prices and stable service consumption[5] Food Prices - August food CPI decreased by 2.7 percentage points to -4.3%, significantly impacting overall CPI[4] - Fresh food supply was ample, with egg prices rising by 1.5% and fresh fruit prices dropping by 2.8% month-on-month[4] Industrial Prices - PPI's year-on-year decline narrowed by 0.7 percentage points to -2.9%, with month-on-month prices stabilizing after eight months of decline[6] - Coal and steel prices rebounded, with coal mining and washing industries increasing by 2.8% and black metal smelting rising by 1.9% month-on-month[6] Economic Outlook - The recovery of core CPI and PPI is expected to be gradual, influenced by fiscal policy and the real estate market's ongoing challenges[6] - Export demand is showing initial signs of cooling, necessitating close monitoring of economic conditions through 2026[6]