Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong real estate market is entering a new upward cycle driven by factors such as industry, population, and interest rates, with all real estate companies operating in Hong Kong expected to benefit from this trend [1][3]. Supply Constraints - Supply constraints have always characterized the Hong Kong real estate market, with high population density in developed areas and slow construction of new functional zones [1]. - The average living space per person in Hong Kong is less than 20 square meters, significantly lower than mainland China and other major East Asian cities [1]. - The home ownership rate is relatively low, with nearly half of the population renting, and the market is primarily driven by secondary housing transactions [1]. Historical Market Cycles - Since 1993, the Hong Kong real estate market has experienced five cycles of boom and bust, with population, economic fundamentals, and interest rates being key influencing factors [1][2]. - The upward phases of the market have historically been longer than the downward phases [1]. New Cycle Drivers - The new upward cycle is supported by the robust development of the financial services sector, government policies attracting high-end talent, and a gradual decrease in interest rates expected after May 2025 [3]. - The cumulative net migration of high-purchasing-power individuals has been increasing since the second half of 2022, further supporting demand [3]. - The exit of previous demand-restricting policies has also contributed to the market's positive outlook [3]. Company Performance - A selection of ten large-cap real estate companies in Hong Kong, with moderate leverage and a high proportion of local business, is expected to outperform the market during this upward cycle [4]. - In the initial 12 months of the last upward cycle (from January to December 2009), these companies had an average cumulative return that outperformed the Hang Seng Index by 28 percentage points, with an absolute return of 80.2% [4]. - Even after excluding the first three months, the remaining nine months showed a 12 percentage point outperformance against the market index, with an absolute return of 73.2% [4].

Group 1 - Hong Kong's international financial center is thriving, with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange leading global IPO activities, completing 35 IPOs and raising nearly 1000 billion HKD by June 23, 2025 [1] - The number of companies waiting for IPO approval in Hong Kong exceeds 160, with over 40 applications submitted in May alone [1] Group 2 - Chinese securities firms play a crucial role in enhancing Hong Kong's status as an international financial center, becoming significant players in the IPO market and driving fundraising to global prominence [2][3] - The IPO market in Hong Kong has shown a notable recovery, with fundraising exceeding the total for the entire year of 2024, aided by Chinese securities firms' deep local resources and understanding of regulatory frameworks [3] Group 3 - Chinese securities firms are increasingly dominating the IPO market, surpassing foreign institutions in the number of projects, as evidenced by the successful listing of Haitian Flavoring and Food Company, which became the second-largest IPO in Hong Kong this year [4] - The involvement of major international investment banks alongside Chinese firms highlights the growing maturity and competitiveness of Chinese securities firms in the local market [4] Group 4 - Chinese securities firms facilitate cross-border capital flow and deepen the connectivity between mainland and Hong Kong capital markets, with a significant increase in trading volume through the Hong Kong Stock Connect [5] - In 2024, the trading amount serviced by Chinese securities firms for the Hong Kong Stock Connect reached 11.2 trillion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 64.9% [5] Group 5 - Chinese securities firms are expanding their presence in Hong Kong, with 35 subsidiaries established by the end of 2024, reflecting their commitment to the market [6] - The establishment of a wholly-owned subsidiary by Western Securities with an investment of 1 billion RMB underscores the confidence of Chinese firms in maintaining financial stability in Hong Kong [6]

Core Insights - The "Wealth Management Expo 2025" was held in Hong Kong, emphasizing the theme of driving new economic engines and leading new trends [1] - Hong Kong's performance as an international financial center has instilled confidence in global investors, according to the Financial Secretary of Hong Kong, Paul Chan [1] Financial Performance - In the first five months of this year, the average daily trading volume of Hong Kong stocks reached HKD 242 billion, a year-on-year increase of 120% [1] - The total amount raised from new stock offerings in Hong Kong this year is nearly HKD 90 billion, ranking first globally [1] - Bank deposits in Hong Kong increased by over HKD 1 trillion last year, a rise of 7%, and have further increased by 4% this year, totaling over HKD 18 trillion [1] Government Positioning - The Hong Kong government aims to maintain its status as a free port and ensure the stability of its financial system, allowing for free flow of capital and policy consistency [1] - Financial services are highlighted as a core engine for Hong Kong's economic development, with the government committed to enhancing the city's position as an international financial center with strong national support [1]