Core Insights - The report indicates that the real estate market is in a bottoming phase, with a focus on differentiation among sectors and a core strategy for recovery [1][3] - New home sales are still in a contraction phase, with a year-on-year decline of 7.8% in sales area from January to November 2025, while the decline in new residential sales area is 8.1% [4][7] - The report anticipates that the market will continue to stabilize in 2026, driven by policies aimed at stopping the decline and promoting the construction of quality housing [4][30] Fundamental Analysis - New home sales remain in a contraction zone, with first-tier cities showing relative resilience. From January to November 2025, sales area in first-tier cities decreased by 7.5%, while second and third/fourth-tier cities saw declines of 16.3% and 10.2%, respectively [15][19] - The inventory level remains high, with the average de-stocking cycle for commercial housing at 10.4 months and 6.6 months for residential properties. First-tier cities experience relatively lighter de-stocking pressure [22][23] - The land market is characterized by "volume reduction and quality improvement," with residential land transactions down by 7.3% in area but with an increase in average floor price by 12.3% [40][44] Investment Themes - **Hong Kong Residential Market**: There is a recovery in residential transactions, with a 16.2% year-on-year increase in the number of sales contracts from January to November 2025. The private residential price index has risen by 3.4% since March [4][70] - **Commercial Sector**: Policies aimed at boosting consumption have led to a steady recovery in retail sales, with a 3.0% year-on-year increase from January to November 2025. Shopping center foot traffic has stabilized, showing a 14.1% increase in the first half of 2025 [4][5] - **Brokerage Sector**: The pressure to deplete new home inventory has led developers to rely more on brokerage channels, with the proportion of sales expenses attributed to distribution and agency commissions reaching 51.9% in the first half of 2024 [4][19] Market Outlook - The report forecasts that the overall market will continue to bottom out in 2026, with a projected year-on-year decline of 3% in sales area and sales amount [66][67] - New construction and investment are expected to decrease by 10% and 7%, respectively, in 2026, due to reduced land acquisition and weak sales [66][67]

日前，滨江集团（002244）发布公告，宣布公司成功竞得湖新区2025-29号国有建设用地使用权，标志 滨江集团在长三角经济繁荣地区的战略布局进一步深化，为公司持续夯实核心竞争力注入强劲动力，也 彰显滨江集团雄厚的资源整合能力与区域深耕实力。 根据公告披露，该地块规划用途涵盖住宅与商业，建设用地面积达44426平方米，容积率为1.8，土地总 价5.34亿元，公司拥有该地块100%土地权益。 湖新区2025-29号地块坐落于湖州市核心发展区域仁皇山片区，区位优势显著。地块四至条件优越，东 侧毗邻老海关大楼，南侧衔接城市主干道仁皇山路，西侧紧邻长兴路，北侧接壤垄山港，交通通达性良 好。周边配套资源高度醇熟，且西侧邻近湖州市政府，属于仁皇山板块核心稀缺地段，具备极高的开发 价值与市场潜力。地块竞争激烈，滨江集团经过42轮竞价角逐，最终成功斩获地块使用权，充分体现了 公司对优质核心资产的精准研判与坚定布局决心。 2025年是房地产行业新旧模式转型、发展动力切换的关键节点，3月政府工作报告首次将"稳住楼市"纳 入总体工作要求，并重申"持续用力推动房地产止跌回稳"，向市场释放出中央稳楼市的明确信号与坚定 决心；10月"十 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the real estate industry as "Outperform the Market" [5] Core Insights - New home transaction area has seen a narrowing month-on-month increase but an expanding year-on-year decline, while second-hand home transaction area has turned positive month-on-month with a narrowing year-on-year decline [5][14] - The inventory of new homes has increased month-on-month but decreased year-on-year, with the de-stocking cycle lengthening both month-on-month and year-on-year [5][14] - The land market has experienced a decrease in transaction volume and a rise in prices, with both volume and price declining year-on-year [5][54] Summary by Sections 1. Key City New Home Market, Second-hand Home Market, and Inventory Tracking - In the week of December 20-26, 2025, new home transaction area in 40 cities was 2.74 million square meters, a month-on-month increase of 10.5% but a year-on-year decrease of 39.2% [15][20] - The inventory of new homes in 12 cities was 11,491 million square meters, with a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.9% [32][33] - The de-stocking cycle for new homes in first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities was 19.8, 13.2, and 70.3 months respectively, with year-on-year increases across all tiers [25][35] 2. Land Market Tracking - Total land transaction area across 100 cities was 5,116.1 million square meters, a month-on-month decrease of 2.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.7% [54][58] - The total transaction price for land was 129.13 billion yuan, with a month-on-month increase of 10.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 15.9% [55][58] - The average floor price for land was 2,524.1 yuan per square meter, with a month-on-month increase of 13.0% but a year-on-year decrease of 3.7% [56][58] 3. Policy Overview - The central government emphasized the importance of the real estate sector in the upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" period, indicating continued potential for growth and the need for policy adjustments to stabilize the market [90][91] - Local policies in Beijing have been adjusted to ease purchasing conditions for non-local households and support multi-child families, reflecting a trend towards more flexible housing policies [91][92] 4. Market Performance Review - The absolute return of the real estate sector was 1.9%, with a relative return of -0.04% compared to the CSI 300 index, indicating a slight improvement week-on-week [94][95] - The price-to-earnings ratio (PE) for the real estate sector was 24.68X, showing a week-on-week increase of 0.9X [98]

行 业 及 产 业 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230525120002 guzheng@swsresearch.com 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 评 房地产 - ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回升，新房成交推盘比小幅下降。上周(12.20- 12.26)34 个重点城市新房合计成交 363 万平米，环比+17.3%，其中，一二线环比+19.9%， 三四线环比-13.6%。12 月(12.1-12.19)34 城一手房成交同比-29%，较 11 月+7.5pct。其 中，一二线同比-28.4%，三四线同比-35.7%，分别较 11 月+6.5pct 和+17.6pct。上周 13 城 二手房合计成交 122 万平米，环比+2.4%；12 月累计成交同比- ...

保利发展 20251225 摘要 保利发展 2025 年前 11 月新增项目总地价达 670 亿元，接近去年全年 水平，且 90%以上位于一二线城市，权益比显著提升至 87%，增强了 项目影响力和利润结转能力。公司坚持增量投资策略，以优化资产结构 和团队能力。 公司前三季度营收 1,700 亿元，同比小幅下降，毛利率维持在 13.4%。利润总额和归母净利润受项目结构影响降幅较大。公司积极处 置存量土地，已完成 400 多万平方米处置，以回收资金用于增量投资。 保利发展持有 5,700 万平方米代售项目，包括 900 万平方米增量项目和 4,700 万平方米存量项目。针对存量土地，公司采取销售或转经营策略， 部分转为租赁住房，以加速资金周转。 公司预计未来房价不会大幅上涨或下跌，而是基于当前状态进行经营安 排。二手房挂牌量增加对一手房价格构成下行压力，房价稳定需依赖供 求关系、宏观经济及收入预期等多重因素。 公司拥有 2,700 万平方米未开工存量土地，主要集中在 2019-2021 年 获取，三四线城市占比稍高。公司通过调规、换地等方式处置，已完成 400 多万方处置，改善经营状况。 Q&A 保利发展今年的销 ...

日期：2025年12月19日 核心观点： ➢ 25年政策力度整体平淡，26年可能迎来政策组合拳。自去年9.24至今，已经持续五个季度没有出现强刺激的地产政策。我们理解主要是因为 今年的出口较为强劲，全年的经济增长任务完成情况较好，地产端的宽松政策可能延后。在此背景下，今年下半年以来房价，尤其是二手房 价加速下行，亟需等待政策托底。 而就在近期举行的12月中央经济工作会议，明确了对26年房地产工作的要求是"着力稳定房地产市场"；并提出房 地产政策方向，包括因城 施策控增量、去库存、优供给，鼓励收储、深化公积金制度改革、推动"好房子"建设；此外，在货币政策工具方面，提到"灵活高效运用 降准降息"。 26年政策重点关注：1）降息、房贷贴息。其本质是降低购房者实际利率，收敛与净租金回报率的差距以重塑房价的底部支撑，阻断下行螺旋。 26年降息预期提升，但"灵活高效运用"也可能预示下降空间较为有限；房贷贴息的关键则在于幅度与周期长度。2）深化公积金改革。在商 贷收缩的情况下，公积金作为另一重要购房资金渠道，若能更在使用用途、资金管理等方面突破，并更大范围推广，公积金池剩余资金或可 撬动房地产市场加速企稳回升。3）核心城市 ...

保利置业 20251216 摘要 保利置业预计 2025 年完成 500 亿销售目标，但对 2026 年上半年市场 持谨慎态度，面临高基数挑战，中期目标是维持现有销售规模。 公司 2025 年新增项目预计总货值超 500 亿，拿地成本超 250 亿，主要 集中在上海、广州、杭州等高能级城市，立项要求税前成本利润率和 IRR 均不低于 10%。 截至 2025 年上半年，公司库存去化率为 25%，预计全年可达 30%以 上。由于去年已进行较大减值，今年减值压力不大，审计师已进场评估。 公司通过与地方政府谈判，调整商写比或退换地等方式盘活苏州、昆明 等地的城市更新存量资产，以提升收益。 公司通过经营性现金流回笼，净负债率从 100%以上降至 70%左右。 2025 年全口径土地款 250 亿元，虽加大拿地力度，但预计年底净负债 率可能小幅反弹。 公司修订分红政策，将未来三年派息比例提升至 40%，旨在为投资者提 供更稳定透明的派息政策，并适当加大分红比率以补偿投资者。 截至 2025 年 6 月底，公司已售未结转金额为 495 亿元，整体毛利率水 平为 14%，与上半年结转毛利率接近。公司目前可售货值约为 1,8 ...

2025 年 12 月 14 日 行 业 研 究 / 行 业 点 评 相关研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 证券分析师 袁豪 A0230520120001 yuanhao@swsresearch.com 研究支持 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 联系人 顾铮 A0230125070004 guzheng@swsresearch.com 经济工作会议定调，着力稳定房地产、积极稳妥化解风险 看好 —— 地产及物管行业周报（2025/12/6-2025/12/12） 本期投资提示： 房地产 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 博时基金 博时基金管理有限公司(researchreport@bosera.com) 使用。1 行 业 及 产 业 - ⚫ 地产行业数据：新房、二手房成交环比均回落，新房成交推盘比下降。上周(12.6-12.12)34 个重点 城市新房合计成交 242.3 万平米，环比-12.3%，其中，一二线环比-12.9%，三四线环比-2.6%。12 月(12.1-12.12)34 城一手房成交同比-32%，较 11 月+ ...

Group 1 - The core point of the article highlights the successful auction of a land parcel in the Chengbei area, with a transaction price of 143 million yuan on November 18 [1] - The land parcel, identified as 2025拍-16号, has an area of 15,778 square meters (approximately 23.67 acres) and is designated for urban residential and commercial use, with a floor area ratio of 2.3-4.2 and a green space ratio of at least 30% [3] - The starting bid for the land was 143 million yuan, with three bidders participating, ultimately won by Fuzhou Hefushun Real Estate Co., Ltd. at the base price [5] Group 2 - The surrounding area of the land parcel is well-equipped with living amenities and convenient transportation, located across from Huxi Park, and has sufficient educational facilities including seven kindergartens and primary and secondary schools [7] - The announcement indicates that the completed project will initially arrange for students to transition to Fuzhou No. 1 Middle School Yinxixia Campus, with future adjustments planned once the new Fuzhou No. 1 Middle School branch is established [9]

Group 1 - S&P has confirmed Longfor Group's rating at BB- with a stable outlook, indicating expectations of sufficient liquidity support from its commercial property portfolio over the next 12 months [1] - Longfor has repaid all domestic bonds maturing in 2025, with only approximately 2 billion RMB of foreign bank loans remaining due in the same year, reflecting a well-managed debt structure [1] - The debt maturity scale for Longfor in 2026 and 2027 is significantly lower compared to 2025, suggesting manageable refinancing risks supported by operational property loans [1] Group 2 - Moody's has also reported that Longfor's liquidity remains strong, with non-restricted cash and operating cash flow expected to cover unpaid land payments, dividends, and maturing debts over the next 12-18 months [2] - Longfor's credit metrics are projected to recover in the next 12-24 months due to high-margin operating income growth and ongoing debt reduction [2] Group 3 - Longfor's rental income increased by 4.9% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, supported by a high occupancy rate of 97%, with retail sales and average daily foot traffic growing by 17% and 11% respectively during the same period [1] - S&P believes Longfor can maintain robust operational performance in its commercial property portfolio, ensuring asset quality and debt repayment capability [1]