Group 1: A-Share Strategy - The report anticipates a "good start" for A-shares after the New Year, driven by the recent gains in Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index, suggesting a high probability of a positive market opening [2][3] - The report highlights three key factors that previously supported the continuous rise of A-shares: the A500 ETF's volume and price increase, the sustained strength of optical modules, and the booming commercial aerospace sector, though their continuation post-holiday remains uncertain [2][3] - The recommendation is to maintain current positions and avoid chasing prices, while being prepared to increase allocations if a buying opportunity arises similar to the "golden pit" seen in early 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic analysis predicts a GDP growth rate of 4.6% year-on-year for Q4 2025, indicating a strong production sector and moderate demand recovery [4] - Economic activities in December are expected to accelerate, supported by both domestic and external demand, with a reasonable chance of achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [4] - Industrial production is identified as a key driver of growth, while consumer spending is projected to see a slight recovery, although automotive sales are expected to face challenges due to declining volumes and increased discounts [4]

来源：浙商证券股份有限公司 核心观点 元旦节前市场窄幅震荡，多数宽基指数小幅收跌。展望后市，随着港股及A50 在元旦期间的收涨，节后 A 股取得"开门红"是大概率事件。但需注意，前期驱动A 股连阳的"三大要素"（A500ETF 量价齐升，光 模块持续走强，商业航天持续火爆）在节后是否延续存在不确定性，短期仍要做好"两手准备"。中期视 角看，我们认为大盘在3 月前仍有望"更上一层楼"。配置方面，基于"马年春节看多做多，短线做好两 手准备"判断，我们建议：择时方面，保持当前持仓，切勿随便追涨，若近期出现类似2025 年初的"黄 金坑"，则积极逢低增配；板块方面，关注"含科量"较高但近期调整较为充分的恒生科技、科创50；行 业方面，重点关注明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块，逢低关注机器人相关的机械、汽车，AI 应用相关 的传媒、计算机，受益于春节的社服零售，以及电子、化工等热门板块；个股方面，重点留意前述行业 中年线上方的低位滞涨个股。 本周（2025-12-29 至2026-01-02）行情概况（1）主要指数：元旦节前市场窄幅震荡，多数宽基指数小 幅收跌。（2）板块观察： 石化商业航天走强，机器人软科技齐涨。（3）市 ...