Group 1: A-Share Strategy - The report anticipates a "good start" for A-shares after the New Year, driven by the recent gains in Hong Kong stocks and the A50 index, suggesting a high probability of a positive market opening [2][3] - The report highlights three key factors that previously supported the continuous rise of A-shares: the A500 ETF's volume and price increase, the sustained strength of optical modules, and the booming commercial aerospace sector, though their continuation post-holiday remains uncertain [2][3] - The recommendation is to maintain current positions and avoid chasing prices, while being prepared to increase allocations if a buying opportunity arises similar to the "golden pit" seen in early 2025 [2][3] Group 2: Macroeconomic Outlook - The macroeconomic analysis predicts a GDP growth rate of 4.6% year-on-year for Q4 2025, indicating a strong production sector and moderate demand recovery [4] - Economic activities in December are expected to accelerate, supported by both domestic and external demand, with a reasonable chance of achieving the annual growth target of around 5% [4] - Industrial production is identified as a key driver of growth, while consumer spending is projected to see a slight recovery, although automotive sales are expected to face challenges due to declining volumes and increased discounts [4]

来源：浙商证券股份有限公司 核心观点 元旦节前市场窄幅震荡，多数宽基指数小幅收跌。展望后市，随着港股及A50 在元旦期间的收涨，节后 A 股取得"开门红"是大概率事件。但需注意，前期驱动A 股连阳的"三大要素"（A500ETF 量价齐升，光 模块持续走强，商业航天持续火爆）在节后是否延续存在不确定性，短期仍要做好"两手准备"。中期视 角看，我们认为大盘在3 月前仍有望"更上一层楼"。配置方面，基于"马年春节看多做多，短线做好两 手准备"判断，我们建议：择时方面，保持当前持仓，切勿随便追涨，若近期出现类似2025 年初的"黄 金坑"，则积极逢低增配；板块方面，关注"含科量"较高但近期调整较为充分的恒生科技、科创50；行 业方面，重点关注明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块，逢低关注机器人相关的机械、汽车，AI 应用相关 的传媒、计算机，受益于春节的社服零售，以及电子、化工等热门板块；个股方面，重点留意前述行业 中年线上方的低位滞涨个股。 本周（2025-12-29 至2026-01-02）行情概况（1）主要指数：元旦节前市场窄幅震荡，多数宽基指数小 幅收跌。（2）板块观察： 石化商业航天走强，机器人软科技齐涨。（3）市 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is experiencing a gradual upward trend driven by the strong performance of the A500 ETF, the booming commercial aerospace sector, and the continued strength of optical modules. The conclusion of a medium-term bullish outlook for A-shares, characterized as a "systematic slow bull," is deemed to have high confidence, although the sustainability of the driving factors needs to be verified in the short term [1][4][9]. Market Overview - Major indices collectively rose, with the CSI 500 leading in gains during the week of December 22 to December 26, 2025. The market showed broad-based gains, although the dividend consumption sector remained generally weak. Trading volume in Shanghai and Shenzhen saw a slight decline, and most stock index futures contracts were trading at a discount. The margin financing balance increased slightly, with a higher proportion of financing purchases and net inflows into stock ETFs. The valuation of the ChiNext index is relatively low, and the downward energy model is at a normal level [2][7]. Market Attribution - The IPO guidance status of Blue Arrow Aerospace has changed to "guidance work completed," and SpaceX has confirmed preparations for a potential IPO in 2026. The central bank has released a one-time personal credit repair policy to help individuals rebuild credit. Additionally, the central bank's monetary policy committee held its fourth-quarter meeting, emphasizing the need to "maintain the stability of the capital market" [3][8]. Future Market Outlook - The market has shifted from a state of indecision to one favorable for bulls, primarily due to three driving factors: the strong performance of the CSI A500 ETF, which saw total shares increase by 39.89 billion and 67.23 billion over the past week and two weeks, respectively; the ongoing boom in commercial aerospace, which has significantly boosted growth indices; and the continued strength of optical modules, which supports the innovation index. While these factors have shifted the market towards a bullish trend and laid the foundation for upward movement in the first half of the following year, their sustainability remains uncertain. The medium-term bullish outlook for A-shares is supported, but short-term developments require careful observation [4][9]. Investment Strategy - Based on the assessment of a medium-term bullish outlook and the need for short-term observation, it is advised to maintain current positions and avoid chasing after high-performing stocks, especially those with significant gains this year. If a situation similar to the "golden pit" seen earlier this year arises, it is recommended to actively increase allocations at lower prices. The focus should be on the brokerage sector, which has shown signs of lagging and potential for share expansion. Additionally, attention should be given to the Hang Seng Technology Index, which has undergone sufficient adjustments and formed a daily MACD divergence. A strategy of "light index, heavy stock" is suggested, with a focus on low-performing stocks above the annual line [5][10].

Core Viewpoint - The recent stock market decline, particularly in the ChiNext index which fell over 6%, presents a buying opportunity for value investors rather than a cause for panic [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The global market is experiencing significant downturns, with the Nasdaq down 2.7% and the Nikkei index down over 3.4% [1] - In the A-share market, over 4,900 stocks have declined, indicating a widespread sell-off [1] Group 2: Reasons for the Decline - The decline is attributed to three main factors: weakening faith in technology stocks, tight liquidity due to a strong dollar and foreign capital outflow, and a pervasive sense of panic among investors [3][4] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Many quality companies have been "wrongly killed" in this market downturn, leading to significantly lower valuations and increased safety margins for investors [4] - Key sectors to consider for investment include: - AI and semiconductors, driven by domestic substitution policies - New energy sectors such as energy storage and wind power, which continue to show high industry vitality - Military industry, characterized by stable orders and strong defensive qualities [4] - High dividend assets in sectors like banking, electricity, and public utilities are also recommended for their low valuations and ability to provide stability in volatile markets [4]

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by CATL regarding the transfer of shares by its third-largest shareholder, Huang Shilin, has sparked discussions among fund managers about potential short-term impacts on the company's stock price and the broader solid-state battery sector, with some suggesting a possible "golden pit" buying opportunity due to the long-term positive outlook for the battery industry [1][4]. Summary by Sections Share Transfer Details - Huang Shilin plans to transfer 45.63 million shares, representing 1% of CATL's total share capital, valued at approximately 18.4 billion yuan based on the latest closing price [1][2]. - The transfer will not occur through centralized bidding or block trading, and the price will be set at a minimum of 70% of the average trading price over the previous 20 trading days [2][5]. - After the transfer, Huang will still hold 10.21% of CATL's shares, totaling 466 million shares [2]. Market Reactions and Predictions - Industry experts anticipate significant stock price fluctuations for CATL due to Huang's share reduction, but they believe the long-term impact on the company's growth will be minimal [4][5]. - The solid-state battery sector is viewed as a future trend in the renewable energy industry, with expectations of significant advancements and production starting around 2026 [4][5]. Broader Industry Context - The electric vehicle market's growth is crucial for the battery sector, with the potential for expansion into other areas such as energy storage and machinery [5]. - The end of tax exemptions for electric vehicles in 2026 and 2027 may affect market dynamics, as the current tax rate for electric vehicles is effectively halved [6].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector, particularly innovative drugs, is experiencing significant volatility, with both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks showing sharp declines in recent trading sessions, indicating potential investment opportunities amidst market fluctuations [1][3][5]. Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - A-share market saw major declines in innovative drug stocks, with Beida Pharmaceutical dropping by 10.63%, Hengrui Medicine down 4.05%, and Baili Tianheng falling 6.18%, leading to a 2.21% drop in the only drug ETF (562050) [1]. - The CXO sector also faced declines, with WuXi AppTec falling 3.82%, while the largest medical ETF (512170) only decreased by 1.32%, indicating some resilience in the market [1]. Group 2: Hong Kong Market Performance - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical market experienced even more volatility, with innovative drug stocks like Kelun-Bio dropping 9.82% and major players like CSPC Pharmaceutical and Innovent Biologics falling over 6% [3]. - The Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (520880) opened up 1.86% but ended the day down 4.22%, marking its largest single-day drop since inception, with a trading volume of 4.1 billion [3]. Group 3: Investment Sentiment and Opportunities - Despite the ongoing market downturn, there is a noticeable increase in buying interest, as evidenced by a significant inflow of capital into the medical ETFs, suggesting that investors may be looking for "golden pit" opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector [5][6]. - Analysts suggest that the recent declines may be a release of short-term risks and emotional volatility, with potential for greater opportunities than risks if the market undergoes significant adjustments [5]. Group 4: Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The fund manager of the Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF highlighted the interconnectedness of the US and Chinese biopharmaceutical industries, suggesting that recent tariff tensions may lead to a "TACO trade" strategy, where investors anticipate a reversal of aggressive policies [6]. - The innovative drug sector is supported by strong fundamentals, including innovation capabilities and global competitiveness, which remain unchanged despite market fluctuations [6]. - With the global liquidity easing cycle initiated by the Federal Reserve, many institutions view Hong Kong stocks as undervalued and a favorable investment opportunity [7].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in the stock market are primarily driven by regulatory changes affecting technology stocks and escalating trade tensions between China and the U.S. Market Performance - On October 9, the Shanghai Composite Index broke through the 3900-point mark, reaching a new high of 3936 points, but subsequently fell by 0.94% to close at 3897 points on October 10 [2][3]. - The trading volume on October 10 was 7.19 billion shares, with a total turnover of 1.132 trillion yuan [2]. Regulatory Impact - A significant factor for the market's decline on October 10 was the announcement that several brokerages would adjust the margin trading collateral for stocks like SMIC and BVI Storage to zero, reflecting a regulatory requirement for stocks with a static P/E ratio exceeding 300 [5][3]. - This regulatory action is seen as a response to high valuations in the tech sector, which has been experiencing a substantial increase, with the semiconductor sector up 57.19% year-to-date [5]. Trade Tensions - On the night of October 9, China announced a series of export controls on critical materials, including rare earths and lithium batteries, in response to U.S. trade policies [5][6]. - The U.S. has threatened to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods, which is expected to negatively impact the market, although the severity of this impact is debated [22][26]. Market Sentiment - Despite the negative news, there is a belief that the market may not experience a severe downturn similar to previous instances, as many investors anticipate a recovery following the initial drop [26][28]. - The upcoming trading week is expected to see a decline, but it is viewed as a potential buying opportunity, with expectations that the market will stabilize and eventually break through the 4000-point level [28][29]. Sector Rotation - The current market dynamics suggest a rotation between technology stocks and blue-chip stocks, with the latter expected to support the index during the upcoming fluctuations [31].

Group 1 - The securities sector experienced a significant increase in trading volume, with a 62% surge on July 24, indicating strong institutional buying interest [2] - Northbound capital began to accumulate securities stocks from June 23 to 25, with daily purchases reaching the second-highest level of the year [2] - The 10-day moving average serves as a critical support level, with a historical pattern of rebounds following breaches [2][4] Group 2 - A small bullish candle with a long lower shadow on July 28 raised hopes, but was followed by a sharp decline the next day, indicating potential manipulation by large players [3] - The presence of large buy orders, such as over 8000 lots at a specific price, suggests that retail investors are not driving the market movements [3] - The analysis of trading volume and price action is essential for identifying potential buying opportunities, with specific signals indicating a "golden pit" [4] Group 3 - Key signals for identifying a "golden pit" include a drop in trading volume to below 70% of pre-launch levels, the appearance of long lower shadows in candlestick patterns, and leading stocks turning positive [4] - Historical data supports the significance of the 10-day moving average, with past instances showing substantial rebounds after touching this level [4] - A strategic approach to investing involves staggered buying and monitoring changes in margin financing, which can provide insights into market sentiment [4] Group 4 - Market dynamics reveal that despite recent index declines, there has been a net inflow of 1.27 billion yuan into securities stocks, indicating underlying strength [6] - The analysis of specific stocks, such as internet brokerages versus traditional brokerages, shows differing trends in capital flow [6] - Observations of trading patterns, such as large buy orders appearing suddenly, can signal potential reversals in stock prices [6] Group 5 - The volatility in options during consolidation periods can present investment opportunities, particularly when observing the performance of the securities ETF around the 10-day moving average [7] - The selection of individual stocks within the securities sector is crucial, with leading stocks showing recovery while others lag behind [7] - The rotation of capital into the securities sector from other industries, such as semiconductors and new energy, suggests a strategic shift in investor focus [7]

Summary of Conference Call Industry or Company Involved - The conference call primarily discusses the macroeconomic strategies and market outlook, focusing on the banking sector and micro-cap stocks in the context of the Chinese market. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Sentiment and Economic Outlook** The overall market sentiment is complex, with a focus on the banking sector and micro-cap stocks. The current market is seen as being in a phase of risk concentration and potential recovery, with a central index around 3,300 points, fluctuating within a range of 150 points [1][3][12]. 2. **Trade Negotiations and Tariff Implications** There is a consensus that high tariffs are unsustainable, leading to expectations of negotiations between the US and China. The potential for a resolution is seen as a critical factor for market stability, with concerns about the impact of tariffs on mid-tier industries [2][5][15]. 3. **Economic Indicators and Market Dynamics** Recent economic indicators, such as PMI and PPI, suggest a decline in economic activity, which could impact market confidence. The expectation is that more positive signals are needed to support a market recovery [7][16][22]. 4. **Sector Performance** The banking sector and micro-cap stocks have shown resilience, with small banks reaching new highs. This performance is attributed to quantitative support and market dynamics favoring smaller entities [12][13][19]. 5. **US Monetary Policy and Inflation** The Federal Reserve's recent adjustments to its monetary policy framework indicate a cautious approach to interest rate changes, with inflation data showing signs of cooling. However, core inflation remains stable, suggesting that significant shifts in policy may not occur in the near term [21][23][24]. 6. **Global Economic Context** The interplay between US-China trade relations and global economic pressures, including rising US Treasury yields and fluctuating commodity prices, is highlighted as a significant factor influencing market behavior [10][24][25]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Investor Behavior and Market Dynamics** There is a noted shift in investor behavior, with a focus on maintaining market sentiment through small-cap stocks, which are seen as crucial for overall market health [17][19]. 2. **Long-term Economic Resilience** Despite short-term challenges, there is an acknowledgment of long-term resilience in the Chinese economy, particularly in technology and internal consumption sectors [8][9]. 3. **Gold and Currency Trends** The discussion includes insights on gold prices and the US dollar index, with expectations that gold may have reached a peak around 3,500, while the dollar index is projected to remain stable between 100 and 105 [25]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and discussions from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current market landscape and future expectations.

Group 1 - The report highlights a "risk-on" environment following the easing of tariffs between China and the US, leading to a significant rebound in global risk assets, particularly in the US stock market [1][9][51] - The A-share market has shown a mixed performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.76% and the ChiNext Index increasing by 1.38%, while the Hang Seng Index fell by 2.09% [1][13] - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on structural opportunities within the market, particularly in the small-cap sector, which has seen significant gains since the bottom of the "golden pit" [2][26][60] Group 2 - The report notes that the small-cap index and micro-cap stocks have rebounded significantly, with the micro-cap index achieving a 36% increase since the bottom of the "golden pit" [2][60] - It is observed that the performance of sectors closer to the "pit edge" has slowed down, while those further away have experienced larger gains, indicating a rotation in market sentiment [26][30] - The report suggests that the technology sector is expected to continue its recovery, supported by a "second wave" of technology investments, particularly in high-dividend and tech stocks [3][7] Group 3 - The report discusses the impact of external factors, such as the US inflation data and the Federal Reserve's interest rate policies, on market dynamics, indicating a potential delay in rate cuts due to persistent inflation [5][7][9] - The report highlights the importance of monitoring the performance of various sectors, particularly those that have completed their "fill pit" process, such as consumer electronics and machinery, which are now showing signs of recovery [26][27] - The report also emphasizes the need for investors to be cautious of potential downward pressure from unexpected increases in the US dollar index, which could affect market sentiment [2][5] Group 4 - The report outlines the recent trends in fund flows, noting that there has been a significant outflow from major ETFs, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and a potential weakening of support for large-cap indices [20][22][23] - It is noted that the banking sector has shown strong performance, attributed to the influx of incremental capital, which has helped the sector achieve excess returns independent of dividend assets [20][25][26] - The report emphasizes the ongoing structural changes in the public fund industry, with new regulations aimed at enhancing the performance of active equity funds and aligning management fees with fund performance [61][62][63]