公司报告 | 半年报点评 万润股份（002643） 证券研究报告 MP、三月实现扭亏，高端新材料厚积薄发 事件：万润股份发布 2025 年中报，上半年实现营业收入 18.70 亿元，同比 -4.4%，实现归母净利润 2.18 亿元，同比+1.35%；其中第二季度实现营业 收入 10.09 亿元，同比-1.0%，环比+17.1%，实现归母净利润 1.38 亿元，同 比+18.3%，环比+73.1%。 盈利预测：由于各板块业务上半年收入利润变动，我们调整万润股份 2025-2027 年归母净利润预期为 5.20/6.31/7.04 亿元（25-26 年前值为 5.38/6.94 亿元），维持"买入"评级。 生命科学领域实现增长，子公司 MP 和三月实现扭亏 风险提示：汇率大幅波动风险；新材料应用不及预期；宏观经济下行影响 沸石、显示材料等收入下行的风险。 | 财务数据和估值 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业收入(百万元) | 4,305.32 | 3,693.26 | 3,824.2 ...

Group 1 - The recent disclosure of A-share listed companies' semi-annual reports reveals significant movements by institutional investors, with pension funds entering the top ten shareholders of 29 new stocks in Q2 [1] - Eleven stocks saw new holdings from pension funds with a market value exceeding 100 million yuan, including Satellite Chemical, Shengyi Technology, Hongfa Technology, Yuyue Medical, and others [1] - Additional companies that received new holdings from pension funds include Huafeng Aluminum, Guomai Culture, and others, indicating a broad interest in various sectors [1] Group 2 - Satellite Chemical reported a new holding value of 346 million yuan from pension funds, with a revenue of 23.46 billion yuan in H1 2025, marking a 20.93% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 2.744 billion yuan, up 33.44% [2] - The company is focusing on high-end new materials and has applied for 122 patents, with 57 granted, and plans to invest 3 billion yuan in high-performance catalyst industrialization [2] - Shengyi Technology saw a new holding value of 273 million yuan, with H1 2025 revenue of 3.769 billion yuan, a 91% increase, and a net profit of 531 million yuan, up 452% [3] - The growth is attributed to the demand from AI servers and high-speed switches, with a 1.9 billion yuan investment to expand PCB production capacity [3] - Hongfa Technology received a new holding value of 248 million yuan, reporting H1 2025 revenue of 8.347 billion yuan, a 15.43% increase, and a net profit of 964 million yuan, up 14.19% [4] - The company benefits from improved downstream demand in consumer electronics and is expected to maintain steady growth [4]

| 名称 | 持股机构家数 | 持股数量(万股) | 持股市值(亿元) | 东财行业 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 卫星化学 | 1 | 1996.72 | 3.46 | 其他化学原料 | | 生益电子 | 1 | 533. 39 | 2.73 | 电子设备制造 | | 宏发股份 | 1 | 1111. 10 | 2. 48 | 电气自控设备 | | 鱼跃医疗 | 1 | 669. 13 | 2. 38 | 医疗器械 | | 杰瑞股份 | 1 | 671. 79 | 2. 35 | 油田服务 | | 安琪酵母 | 1 | 620. 30 | 2. 18 | 食品综合 | | 奏恩康 | 1 | 431. 85 | 1.53 | 医药商业 | | 华测检测 | 1 | 1073. 40 | 1.25 | 其他专业服务 | | 海信家电 | 1 | 459. 61 | 1. 18 | 白色家电 | | 共达电声 | 1 | 828. 37 | 1.07 | 电子设备制造 | | 剑桥科技 | 1 | 217. 59 | 1.03 | 通信终端设备 | 此外，华峰铝业、果麦 ...

Core Viewpoint - Satellite Chemical (002648) is positioned for growth with functional chemicals as the main driver, supported by continuous R&D investment [1][2] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved total revenue of 23.46 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.9%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.74 billion yuan, up 33.4% year-on-year [1] - In Q2 2025, total revenue was 11.13 billion yuan, with quarter-on-quarter changes of +5.1% and -9.7%, while net profit was 1.18 billion yuan, with quarter-on-quarter changes of +13.7% and -25.1% [1] Segment Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from functional chemicals, polymer materials, and new energy materials was 12.22 billion, 5.25 billion, and 300 million yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of +32.1%, -4.4%, and -14.8% [2] - Gross margins for these segments were 19.92%, 29.54%, and 21.63%, showing improvements of 2.64 percentage points, 0.74 percentage points, and 0.30 percentage points year-on-year [2] - Overall sales gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 20.56% and 11.69%, with year-on-year changes of -0.52 percentage points and +1.11 percentage points [2] Strategic Initiatives - The company is enhancing its supply chain integration, having completed its downstream chemical layout in the C2 sector, with capacities including 1.82 million tons of ethylene glycol and 500,000 tons of polyether monomers [2] - In the C3 sector, it has established the largest acrylic acid and ester production capacity in China and the second largest globally, with a new project in 2024 expected to produce 800,000 tons of multi-carbon alcohols [2] R&D Investment - The company plans to invest 10 billion yuan in R&D, focusing on key strategic materials and advanced new materials, with its R&D center set to begin construction in May 2024 [3] - During the reporting period, the company filed 122 patents and received 57 authorized patents, with R&D expenses amounting to 773 million yuan [3] - In the green data center sector, the company is developing hydrocarbon-based immersion cooling liquids, which have potential as a mainstream cooling technology due to their energy-saving and environmentally friendly properties [3] Investment Recommendations - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 6.36 billion, 7.60 billion, and 9.63 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10, 8, and 7 times based on the closing price of 18.85 yuan on August 13 [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy-B" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - Functional chemicals are the main growth driver, with continuous increases in R&D investment [1][3] - The company achieved a total revenue of 23.46 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 20.9%, and a net profit of 2.74 billion yuan, up 33.4% year-on-year [2][3] - The company has established significant production capacities in both C2 and C3 fields, enhancing its competitive edge through integrated supply chains [3][4] Financial Performance - In H1 2025, revenue from functional chemicals, polymer materials, and new energy materials was 12.22 billion, 5.25 billion, and 0.30 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.1%, -4.4%, and -14.8% [3] - The overall gross margin and net margin for H1 2025 were 20.56% and 11.69%, showing a slight decrease in gross margin but an increase in net margin compared to the previous year [3] - The company plans to invest 10 billion yuan in R&D by 2024, focusing on high-end and critical materials [4] Future Projections - Expected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected to be 6.36 billion, 7.60 billion, and 9.63 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 10, 8, and 7 times based on the closing price of 18.85 yuan on August 13 [5][11] - Revenue forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 51.89 billion, 59.19 billion, and 69.59 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a steady growth trajectory [7][12]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a total revenue of 23.46 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 20.93%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.744 billion yuan, up 33.44% year-on-year, while the net profit excluding non-recurring items was 2.896 billion yuan, an increase of 29.61% year-on-year [4][5] - The second quarter saw a revenue of 11.131 billion yuan, which is a 5.05% increase year-on-year but a 9.72% decrease quarter-on-quarter. The net profit attributable to shareholders for Q2 was 1.175 billion yuan, up 13.72% year-on-year but down 25.07% quarter-on-quarter [4][5] - The decline in Q2 performance was primarily due to maintenance costs, while the operational performance remained stable. The non-recurring gains and losses were mainly due to exchange rate fluctuations [5] - The company is advancing the construction of its high-end new materials industrial park for alpha-olefins, with a total planned investment of approximately 26.6 billion yuan. The project is expected to reach production capacity in 2026 [5] - The company has signed agreements for the leasing of 12 ethane transportation vessels to ensure sufficient ethane supply for its upcoming projects [5] Financial Summary - The company expects net profits attributable to shareholders for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 6.524 billion yuan, 8.893 billion yuan, and 10.982 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.73, 7.14, and 5.78 [6] - Key financial indicators for 2025E include total revenue of 52.919 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 15.9%, and a net profit margin of 12.3% [10] - The gross profit margin is projected to be 20.9% in 2025, with a return on equity (ROE) of 18.4% [10]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][21]. Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year growth of 33.4% in net profit attributable to shareholders in the first half of 2025, with revenue reaching 23.46 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.9% increase [2][10]. - The company is investing 25.7 billion yuan in a new high-end materials industrial park project, which is expected to start production in 2026, indicating a focus on long-term growth and technological advancement [4][20]. - The company is facing challenges due to import tariffs and restrictions on ethane exports from the U.S., but has adapted its strategies to mitigate these impacts [2][10]. Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported revenue of 23.46 billion yuan and a net profit of 2.74 billion yuan, with a significant increase in operating cash flow by 138.9% to 5.05 billion yuan [2][10]. - The gross margin for the second quarter of 2025 was 19.3%, showing a slight decline compared to the previous year, while the net margin improved by 0.8 percentage points year-on-year [2][10]. - The company’s revenue from functional chemicals, high polymer materials, and other segments showed varied performance, with functional chemicals growing by 32.1% year-on-year [3][19]. Earnings Forecast - The forecast for net profit attributable to shareholders has been adjusted to 6.67 billion yuan, 7.43 billion yuan, and 8.47 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a downward revision due to import tax impacts and weak downstream demand recovery [4][21]. - The expected diluted EPS for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is projected to be 1.98 yuan, 2.21 yuan, and 2.51 yuan respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 9.5x, 8.5x, and 7.5x [5][21].

| [Table_EPS] 盈利预测与估值 | 2023A | 2024A | 2025E | 2026E | 2027E | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 营业总收入（百万元） | 41,487 | 45,648 | 53,162 | 57,719 | 63,060 | | 同比（%） | 12.00 | 10.03 | 16.46 | 8.57 | 9.25 | | 归母净利润（百万元） | 4,789 | 6,072 | 6,610 | 8,007 | 9,833 | | 同比（%） | 54.71 | 26.77 | 8.86 | 21.14 | 22.81 | | EPS-最新摊薄（元/股） | 1.42 | 1.80 | 1.96 | 2.38 | 2.92 | | P/E（现价&最新摊薄） | 13.42 | 10.59 | 9.72 | 8.03 | 6.54 | [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] 投资要点 ◼ 高性能催化新材料项目正式落地，多个在建项目提供后续发展动能： 2025H1，公司高性能催化新材料项目正式落地，未 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [6][7]. Core Insights - The report highlights the resumption of U.S. ethane exports to China, which is expected to benefit the company significantly due to its core assets in U.S. ethane exports [6]. - The company has a competitive edge with its low ethylene production costs and integrated supply chain advantages, positioning it well for future growth [6]. - The report projects substantial revenue and profit growth for the company from 2025 to 2027, with expected revenues of 588.39 billion, 681.97 billion, and 788.11 billion respectively, and net profits of 72.21 billion, 92.46 billion, and 117.78 billion respectively [7][8]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company has a total share capital of 336,865 million shares and a closing price of 17.31 as of July 2, 2025 [1]. - The asset-liability ratio stands at 53.62%, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.83 and a weighted return on equity of 5.05% [1]. Market Dynamics - The U.S. has lifted the export ban on ethane to China, which is crucial for the company's operations as it owns a significant export terminal in the U.S. [6]. - The report notes that the construction of new ethane terminals in the U.S. is unlikely due to high investment costs and regulatory challenges [6]. Competitive Position - The company is positioned in the lowest cost range for ethylene production in China, benefiting from technological advancements and lower raw material costs [6]. - The company plans to expand its fleet of VLEC ships to enhance its logistics capabilities, with an investment of 257 billion for six new vessels [6]. Financial Projections - Revenue growth rates are projected at 28.90% for 2025, followed by 15.90% and 15.56% for 2026 and 2027 respectively [8]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 2.14, 2.74, and 3.50 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [7][8].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the construction of the high-end new material project for POE by Liaoning Dingjide has reached a significant milestone with the successful installation of the T1402 stripping tower, marking the project entering the full construction phase of the main device [1] - The project includes the largest ethane-to-alpha-olefin facility in the country, with a capacity of 300,000 tons per year, and the installation process was completed in just six days through meticulous planning and execution [1] - The project team has implemented innovative management practices and established a strict quality control system to ensure high-quality and efficient construction, addressing challenges such as tight timelines and large engineering volumes [1] Group 2 - The Liaoning Dingjide POE high-end new material project is being constructed in two phases, with the first phase including a 200,000 tons per year POE joint device, a 300,000 tons per year alpha-olefin device, and a 400 Nm³/h electrolytic water hydrogen production unit [2] - Alpha-olefin is a key raw material for producing POE, and the project aims to address the domestic supply shortage of high-end products, which has long relied on imports [2] - The new process adopted in the project effectively resolves critical technical issues related to the impact of solid oligomers on heat and mass transfer in the polymerization reaction [2]