Group 1 - The core drivers for the future rise of A-shares are policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrading [1] - A-share valuations have become high after nearly a year of expansion, but the equity risk premium (ERP) remains at a reasonable level due to the decline in the risk-free interest rate [1] - The long-term total factor productivity upgrade and technological transformation outlined in China's 14th Five-Year Plan will continue to catalyze structural market trends, although improvements in the earnings fundamentals still depend on enhanced policies [1] Group 2 - Before confirming improvements in the fundamentals, liquidity remains the key driver for the market [1] - The core themes for A-shares in the coming year are expected to be AI, self-control, and high value-added exports [1]

野村最新观点来了。 野村亚洲（除日本外）及印度首席经济学家Sonal Varma则认为，从中期来看，亚洲（除日本外）地区在科技 板块持续表现优异的同时，正面临着充满挑战的外部环境。预计科技与非科技板块的显著分化将持续下去。科 技板块仍保持韧性，这得益于人工智能需求的持续旺盛以及存储芯片超级周期的支撑。然而，非科技板块仍然 疲软，原因在于人工智能相关的 溢出效应 有限，且美国对劳动密集型行业加征了更高关税。 11月12日，"2025年野村中国投资年会"在深圳开幕，吸引了超过40家企业和400多位投资者参与。 "我们见证中国取得了令人瞩目的成就，最新公布的'十五五'规划建议也让我们备受鼓舞。"野村国际（香港） 有限公司社长川前顺平表示，中国将专注于在2026—2030年实现有韧性、平稳和包容的经济增长。政府将继续 通过大力投资和产业政策推进科技自立自强，特别是在半导体和人工智能领域。 野村东方国际证券研究部总经理、首席策略分析师高挺认为，政策支持、流动性和产业升级是驱动A股后续上 涨的核心动力。"AI、自主可控和高附加值出海将是明年A股的核心主线。"高挺说。 全球经济仍表现出显著韧性 川前顺平在致辞时表示，野村进 ...

Core Insights - Nomura emphasizes China's focus on resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, driven by significant investments and industrial policies, particularly in semiconductors and artificial intelligence [1][5] - The core drivers for the A-share market's future growth are policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades, with AI and high-value exports identified as key themes for the upcoming year [4][1] Group 1: Global Economic Resilience - Despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, the global economy shows significant resilience, supported by the AI revolution, flexible trade adjustments, and moderate monetary and fiscal policies [2] - Economic inequality is becoming more pronounced, with low-income families and small businesses struggling, posing challenges for policymakers to maintain global economic stability [2] Group 2: Asian Economic Outlook - The technology sector in Asia (excluding Japan) is expected to perform well, driven by strong demand for AI and a supercycle in storage chips, while non-tech sectors face challenges due to limited spillover effects from AI and increased tariffs on labor-intensive industries [3] - The region's solid economic fundamentals and new growth drivers, such as supply chain shifts and increased AI investment, position India, the Philippines, and Malaysia as some of the fastest-growing economies in the next decade [3] Group 3: A-share Market Dynamics - A-share valuations have expanded over the past year but remain reasonable when considering the equity risk premium in a declining risk-free rate environment [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes long-term productivity upgrades and technological transformation, which will catalyze structural market trends, although improvements in earnings fundamentals are still needed [4][7] Group 4: AI and Technology Sector Developments - The trend towards a self-sufficient AI supply chain in China is becoming more evident, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and a focus on developing large language models and generative AI applications [8] - The competitive landscape in the instant retail sector is expected to stabilize, potentially alleviating losses for companies expanding in this area [8] Group 5: Entertainment Sector Insights - The online entertainment sector, particularly online gaming and music services, is expected to remain resilient, while long-form video content may continue to lag due to shifts in consumer preferences towards short videos [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded 3 trillion yuan for the first time since October of the previous year, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1] - According to Central European Fund, the market's profit-making effect is spreading from the technology sector to other areas, with trading activity remaining at historically high levels [1] - In light of the rising market enthusiasm, it is suggested to adjust the existing dividend sector in the barbell strategy towards the technology growth sector [1] Group 2 - The growth sector to focus on includes high-value-added overseas-related fields, particularly those leveraging short videos and algorithms to gain traffic and channel advantages, aimed at exporting the consumption aesthetics of Chinese youth [1] - Additionally, attention should be given to high-end manufacturing, which has global research, scale, and capitalization advantages, as well as the potential for capital investment and technological research and development in China [1] - Other areas of interest include innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and AI hardware themes [1]