虽然静态PE估值在经历近一年的扩张后已偏高，但考虑到无风险利率下行后的ERP仍处于合理水 平。"十五五规划"等定调的长期全要素生产率升级与科技转型将持续催化结构性行情，同时内需板块 基本面改善有待稳增长政策的加码。在基本面改善得到确认前，我们预计流动性仍是推动市场的关 键，综合当前产业趋势与基本面结构性，我们认为AI、自主可控和高附加值出海将是明年A股的核心 主线。考虑到A股资金面韧性，以及12月中央经济工作会议潜在的政策刺激预期，若后续市场出现调 整，那么将带来新一轮入场机会。我们认为红利与科技的均衡配置所提供的必要防御性在短期市场仍 是必要的，且在均衡配置时，考虑到年内被动基金入市的热潮，集中于行业内大市值的配置可能更加 有利（大市值增强）。但同时我们建议在后续出现调整窗口时加大对科创等成长题材的配置，逐步开 启对跨年行情的布局。考虑到"十五五"规划出台，其中对安全韧性的描述（自主可控的投资加码）、 新兴产业的商业化（商业航天卫星6G低空机器人）和货币与财政政策的创新空间有望对A股形成积极 影响。我们建议投资者同步增加对中美两国自主可控题材的关注度，在中国资产中加大对军贸、创新 药、半导体国产替代、AI基 ...

Group 1 - The core drivers for the future rise of A-shares are policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrading [1] - A-share valuations have become high after nearly a year of expansion, but the equity risk premium (ERP) remains at a reasonable level due to the decline in the risk-free interest rate [1] - The long-term total factor productivity upgrade and technological transformation outlined in China's 14th Five-Year Plan will continue to catalyze structural market trends, although improvements in the earnings fundamentals still depend on enhanced policies [1] Group 2 - Before confirming improvements in the fundamentals, liquidity remains the key driver for the market [1] - The core themes for A-shares in the coming year are expected to be AI, self-control, and high value-added exports [1]

Core Viewpoint - Nomura emphasizes China's focus on resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, driven by significant investments and industrial policies, particularly in the semiconductor and AI sectors [2][6]. Group 1: Economic Outlook - Global economy shows significant resilience despite challenges such as rising tariffs and geopolitical tensions, supported by AI transformation and flexible trade adjustments [4]. - Asia (excluding Japan) is expected to face a challenging external environment while maintaining strong performance in the tech sector, driven by AI demand and a supercycle in storage chips [5]. - China's economic growth remains steady, but potential challenges include weak domestic demand and rising global trade barriers [8]. Group 2: A-Share Market Dynamics - Policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades are identified as core drivers for the future rise of A-shares, with AI and high-value exports being key themes for the upcoming year [6][2]. - Despite high valuations in A-shares, the equity risk premium remains reasonable, indicating potential for continued market support [6]. Group 3: AI and Technology Sector - The trend towards a self-sufficient AI supply chain in China is becoming increasingly evident, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and the development of large language models [10][11]. - The internet sector's focus will remain on strategic investments in AI by leading platforms and the competitive landscape in instant retail, with expectations of reduced competition intensity in the fourth quarter [11]. Group 4: Policy and Investment Focus - The Chinese government is likely to shift its policy focus towards stabilizing growth and alleviating price pressures, with fiscal expansion becoming a key agenda item [8].

Core Insights - Nomura emphasizes China's focus on resilient, stable, and inclusive economic growth from 2026 to 2030, driven by significant investments and industrial policies, particularly in semiconductors and artificial intelligence [1][5] - The core drivers for the A-share market's future growth are policy support, liquidity, and industrial upgrades, with AI and high-value exports identified as key themes for the upcoming year [4][1] Group 1: Global Economic Resilience - Despite rising tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and fiscal pressures, the global economy shows significant resilience, supported by the AI revolution, flexible trade adjustments, and moderate monetary and fiscal policies [2] - Economic inequality is becoming more pronounced, with low-income families and small businesses struggling, posing challenges for policymakers to maintain global economic stability [2] Group 2: Asian Economic Outlook - The technology sector in Asia (excluding Japan) is expected to perform well, driven by strong demand for AI and a supercycle in storage chips, while non-tech sectors face challenges due to limited spillover effects from AI and increased tariffs on labor-intensive industries [3] - The region's solid economic fundamentals and new growth drivers, such as supply chain shifts and increased AI investment, position India, the Philippines, and Malaysia as some of the fastest-growing economies in the next decade [3] Group 3: A-share Market Dynamics - A-share valuations have expanded over the past year but remain reasonable when considering the equity risk premium in a declining risk-free rate environment [4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes long-term productivity upgrades and technological transformation, which will catalyze structural market trends, although improvements in earnings fundamentals are still needed [4][7] Group 4: AI and Technology Sector Developments - The trend towards a self-sufficient AI supply chain in China is becoming more evident, with significant investments in AI infrastructure and a focus on developing large language models and generative AI applications [8] - The competitive landscape in the instant retail sector is expected to stabilize, potentially alleviating losses for companies expanding in this area [8] Group 5: Entertainment Sector Insights - The online entertainment sector, particularly online gaming and music services, is expected to remain resilient, while long-form video content may continue to lag due to shifts in consumer preferences towards short videos [9]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets has exceeded 3 trillion yuan for the first time since October of the previous year, indicating a significant increase in market activity [1] - According to Central European Fund, the market's profit-making effect is spreading from the technology sector to other areas, with trading activity remaining at historically high levels [1] - In light of the rising market enthusiasm, it is suggested to adjust the existing dividend sector in the barbell strategy towards the technology growth sector [1] Group 2 - The growth sector to focus on includes high-value-added overseas-related fields, particularly those leveraging short videos and algorithms to gain traffic and channel advantages, aimed at exporting the consumption aesthetics of Chinese youth [1] - Additionally, attention should be given to high-end manufacturing, which has global research, scale, and capitalization advantages, as well as the potential for capital investment and technological research and development in China [1] - Other areas of interest include innovative pharmaceuticals, robotics, and AI hardware themes [1]