证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 09 月 29 日 投资要点 分析师：孟之绪 执业编号：S0300524080001 电话： 邮箱：mengzhixu@ykzq.com 投资策略研究 粤开市场日报-20250929 今日关注 今日主要指数涨跌幅：沪指涨跌幅为 0.9%，深证成指涨跌幅为 2.05%， 创业板指涨跌幅为 2.74%。 申万一级行业表现：非银金融、有色金属、电力设备在行业涨跌幅榜居 前；石油石化、美容护理、传媒在行业涨跌幅榜居后。 概念板块表现：总体来看，锂电电解液、炒股软件、磷酸铁锂电池概念 表现相对较好；煤炭开采、鸡产业、网红经济概念表现相对较差。 风险提示 | 一、市场回顾 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 二、风险提示 | 3 | | 图表 1： | | --- | | 今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 3 | 股市有风险，投资需谨慎。 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykzq.com 1 / 5 策略点评 一、市场回顾 图表1：今日主要指数涨跌幅（%）及概念板块表现 二、风险提示 股市有风险，投资需谨慎 请务必阅读最后特别声明与免责条款 www.ykz ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed mixed performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling by 0.39% to close at 3868.38 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.26% to 12473.17 points. The ChiNext Index decreased by 0.76% to 2742.13 points, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index dropped by 1.31% to 1270.87 points [1][13]. - Overall, the market saw a near-even split in individual stock performance, with 2802 stocks rising and 2469 stocks declining, while 152 stocks remained unchanged. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2679 billion yuan, a decrease of 462.1 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][13]. Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the leading sectors included Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (up 2.62%), Beauty and Personal Care (up 2.04%), Basic Chemicals (up 1.26%), Media (up 1.23%), and Comprehensive (up 1.09%). Conversely, the sectors that experienced declines included Pharmaceutical and Biological (down 1.09%), Non-Bank Financials (down 1.06%), Steel (down 0.98%), National Defense and Military Industry (down 0.93%), and Communication (down 0.79%) [1][13]. Concept Sectors - The concept sectors that performed well today included Continuous Limit Up, High Send Transfer, Chicken Industry, Consumer Electronics OEM, Smart Speakers, First Board, Wireless Charging, Virtual Reality, Pig Industry, Online Gaming, Biological Breeding, Chemical Fiber, ST stocks, Apple, and New Display Technology [1][10]. - On the other hand, the sectors that saw a pullback included Rare Earth, CRO, and Rare Earth Permanent Magnet [1][10].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share agricultural sector has rebounded, with significant gains in the pig and chicken industries, as well as fertilizer agriculture, indicating a positive market sentiment and potential investment opportunities in this sector [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 26, the agricultural ETF (159825) rose over 3%, with a trading volume of 206 million shares and a turnover of 167 million yuan [1] - The agricultural ETF has achieved a consecutive increase over the past five trading days, with a cumulative rise of 7.07% [1] - More than 95% of the stocks in the index showed positive performance, with major stocks like Muyuan Foods and Tianma Technology rising over 8% [1] Group 2: Industry Insights - Forecasts for pig prices in 2025 suggest a relatively stable average for the year, with variations expected due to the continuous optimization of costs by leading pig companies, potentially leading to higher-than-expected breeding profits [1] - Key factors to monitor include changes in production capacity, industry breeding conditions, and slaughter weights, which may lead to unexpected developments in the sector [1] Group 3: Trade Data - In July, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) remained flat year-on-year, while the cumulative trade deficit for agricultural products decreased by 16% [1] - China's agricultural product imports amounted to 18.678 billion USD in July, a year-on-year increase of 5.14%, while exports reached 8.385 billion USD, up 1.59%, resulting in a trade deficit of 10.293 billion USD, which is an 8.21% increase year-on-year [1] Group 4: Valuation Metrics - The latest price-to-earnings ratio (PE-TTM) for the CSI Agricultural Theme Index tracked by the agricultural ETF (159825) is only 16.16 times, which is at the 3.41% percentile over the past decade, highlighting attractive investment value [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report 1. **Macro - financial**: For stock index futures, consider buying on dips; for treasury bond futures, a steepening strategy can be considered. The steel and ore market is expected to be volatile, and double - coke prices may enter a high - level consolidation phase. For double - silicon, avoid chasing short positions without non - fundamental positive disturbances [14][15][16]. 2. **Non - ferrous and new materials**: Aluminum prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, while alumina prices may be strong in the short term but face supply surplus pressure in the long term. Zinc prices are expected to weaken after the macro influence fades [24][25]. 3. **Agricultural products**: For cotton, short - term watch and long - term short on rallies; for sugar, pay attention to short - covering opportunities during the Mid - Autumn Festival and National Day stocking. For eggs, short on rallies for near - term contracts; for apples, use a light - position positive spread strategy; for corn, short on far - term contracts; for dates, stay on the sidelines; for pigs, be cautious and short on near - term contracts [30][33][35][37][39][40][41]. 4. **Energy and chemicals**: For crude oil, consider shorting on rallies; for fuel oil, it follows crude oil and has a complex fundamental situation; for plastics, expect limited rebound space; for rubber, it is slightly strong in the short term; for methanol, it will continue to be weakly volatile; for asphalt, it follows crude oil; for LPG, it is prone to fall and difficult to rise; for pulp, observe the inventory and trading volume; for logs, observe and consider hedging on rallies; for urea, the futures price is weak; for synthetic rubber, it is slightly strong in the short term [44][45][46][47][48][51][53][54][55][56][57]. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Information 1. In the first seven months of this year, the cumulative increase in social financing scale was 23.99 trillion yuan, 5.12 trillion yuan more than the same period last year. M2 increased by 8.8% year - on - year, M1 increased by 5.6%, and the stock of social financing scale increased by 9% [10]. 2. Four departments including the central bank explained two discount policies, which are an innovative exploration of fiscal - financial cooperation to boost consumption [10]. 3. In 2025, 188 billion yuan of investment subsidies for equipment renewal supported by ultra - long - term special treasury bonds have been allocated, supporting about 8,400 projects and driving total investment of over 1 trillion yuan [10]. 4. Market supervision and industry and information technology departments plan to strengthen the management of intelligent connected new energy vehicles [11]. 5. The US Treasury Secretary called for a new round of interest rate cuts, suggesting that the US interest rate should be 150 - 175 basis points lower than the current level [11]. 6. The Dalian Commodity Exchange adjusted the daily position - opening limit and handling fee rate for coking coal futures contracts [12]. Macro - financial Stock Index Futures - Strategy: Consider buying on dips. The A - share market rose on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index hitting a new high since December 2021. However, the on - balance - sheet new RMB loans turned negative in July [14]. Treasury Bond Futures - Strategy: Consider a steepening strategy. The money market is loose, and the bond market first weakened and then strengthened. The long - end bonds can be considered to maintain a weakly volatile and bearish view, and the steepening of the yield curve is still relatively advantageous [15][16]. Black Metals - **Steel and Ore**: Policies are becoming milder, supply and demand contradictions are not prominent, and prices are expected to be volatile. Steel mill profits are mixed, and iron ore prices are also volatile [16][17][18]. - **Double - coke**: Prices may enter a high - level consolidation phase. The supply of coking coal is expected to be tight in the short term, but there is also downward pressure [18][19]. - **Double - silicon**: The current price is in a reasonable range, and the medium - term supply - demand logic is weak. Avoid chasing short positions without non - fundamental positive disturbances [19]. Non - ferrous and New Materials - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Aluminum prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term due to weak demand in the off - season but may rise in the future. Alumina prices may be strong in the short term but face supply surplus pressure in the long term [24]. - **Zinc**: Social inventories are increasing, and zinc prices are expected to weaken after the macro influence fades [25]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply - demand situation has improved marginally, and the price is expected to be volatile, but there is pressure from industrial hedging [26][27]. - **Polysilicon**: In the short term, it may return to the contradiction between fundamentals and warehouse receipts, with wide - range fluctuations [28]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Short - term watch and long - term short on rallies due to low downstream demand and new crop production pressure [30][31][32]. - **Sugar**: Domestic sugar stocks are low, but the increase in processed sugar may restrict prices. Pay attention to short - covering opportunities during stocking [33][34][35]. - **Eggs**: The Mid - Autumn Festival peak season is approaching, but the supply pressure is large. Short on rallies for near - term contracts and consider a short 10 - long 12 spread strategy [35][36]. - **Apples**: Use a light - position positive spread strategy. Pay attention to the price changes of early - maturing apples and new - season Fuji apples [37]. - **Corn**: Short on far - term contracts. The market sentiment is bearish, but there is support at the bottom [38][39]. - **Dates**: Stay on the sidelines as the spot market in Hebei is weak [40]. - **Pigs**: Be cautious and short on near - term contracts. The supply pressure is high, and pay attention to the development of African swine fever [40][41]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Consider shorting on rallies as it is likely to enter a supply - surplus pattern [44]. - **Fuel Oil**: Follows crude oil. The current fundamental situation is complex, with factors such as power demand in the Middle East and low - sulfur fuel oil demand affecting it [45]. - **Plastic**: The rebound space is expected to be limited, and it is recommended to prevent callback risks [46]. - **Rubber**: Slightly strong in the short term, but be cautious when chasing highs [47]. - **Methanol**: Continue to be weakly volatile due to the contradiction between tight inland supply and loose port supply [48][49]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot price in Shandong has support, but the futures price has limited upward space [50]. - **Asphalt**: Follows crude oil, and its own fundamentals are in the off - season, with slow inventory reduction [51]. - **Polyester Industry Chain**: Unilateral prices are expected to follow the cost downward. Consider a strategy of going long on MEG and short on PTA [52]. - **LPG**: Supply is abundant, and demand is expected to decline in the medium - long term, making the price prone to fall [53]. - **Pulp**: The market trading has improved, and the price has followed the increase. Observe the inventory and trading volume [54]. - **Logs**: The price is affected by capital, and it is recommended to observe and consider hedging on rallies [55]. - **Urea**: The futures price is weak due to weak fundamentals [56]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Slightly strong in the short term, be cautious when chasing highs [57].

The provided content does not include any specific quantitative models or factors, nor does it detail their construction, evaluation, or backtesting results. The documents primarily focus on market performance, sector analysis, investor sentiment, ETF premiums/discounts, block trading, and institutional activity. These are descriptive analyses and do not involve the development or testing of quantitative models or factors.

Market Performance - The three major A-share indices experienced fluctuations in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.48%, surpassing last year's high of 3674 points, reaching a three-year high [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index increased by 1.76%, while the ChiNext Index surged by 3.62% [1] Sector Performance - The CPO concept saw significant gains, with Guangku Technology hitting a 20% limit-up [1] - The brokerage sector also performed well, with Guosheng Financial Holdings reaching its limit-up [1] - Other sectors that showed strong performance included optical chips, industrial gases, and CROs, while coal mining, Xinjiang revitalization, and poultry industries faced declines [1] Trading Activity - Over 2700 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets rose, with a total trading volume exceeding 2.1 trillion yuan [2]

Market Performance - A-shares experienced a positive morning session with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.56%, the Shenzhen Component increasing by 1.47%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.81% [1] - The total trading volume in the two markets exceeded 1.3 trillion yuan, with over 2,600 stocks advancing [1] Sector Highlights - The industrial gas sector showed strong performance, with Guanggang Gas hitting a 20% limit up and Kaimete Gas also reaching the limit up [1] - The CPO (Chemical Process Optimization) concept saw gains, with Guangku Technology rising by 20% and Xinyisheng increasing by over 13% [1] - Other sectors with notable gains included brokerage firms, CRO (Contract Research Organization) concepts, cultivated diamonds, and optical chips [1] Underperforming Sectors - The chicken industry, coal mining, and Xinjiang revitalization sectors experienced declines [1]

Market Overview - The main indices showed positive performance today, with the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.33%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.86% [1] - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top performers were Communication, Steel, and Pharmaceutical & Biological sectors, while Light Industry Manufacturing, Environmental Protection, and Commercial Retail lagged behind [1] - Concept sectors performed variably, with CRO, Medical Services, and Tibet Revitalization concepts showing relatively strong performance, whereas the Chicken Industry, Insurance, and Banking concepts performed poorly [1]

Domestic Market Overview - The domestic market experienced a slight decline on July 9, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3493.05 points, down 0.13%, and the Shenzhen Component Index at 10581.80 points, down 0.06% [1][5][9] - Among 30 sectors, 18 sectors saw an increase, with Media, Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishing, and Comprehensive Finance leading the gains, while Non-ferrous Metals, Basic Chemicals, and Electronics faced significant declines [1][5][9] - The total trading volume of the A-share market reached 15,274 billion yuan, showing an increase compared to the previous day [1][5][9] Overseas Market Overview - On the same day, U.S. stock markets collectively rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.49%, the S&P 500 up 0.61%, and the Nasdaq up 0.94%, reaching a historical high [2][5] - The Wande American Technology Seven Giants Index increased by 1.25%, while most Chinese concept stocks declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 1.11% [2][5] Key News Highlights - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, China's economic increment is expected to exceed 35 trillion yuan, which is comparable to the total economic output of the top three provinces: Guangdong, Jiangsu, and Shandong in 2024 [11][12] - In June, China's Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% year-on-year, marking a shift from a four-month decline [14][15] - The Ministry of Commerce announced the inclusion of eight Taiwanese entities in the export control list, citing national security and international obligations [16][17]

Market Overview - The main indices showed a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.47%, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.85%, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.96% [1] - In terms of industry performance, the top sectors included Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery, Banking, and Pharmaceutical and Biological sectors, while the Mechanical Equipment, Computer, and Light Industry Manufacturing sectors lagged behind [1] - Concept sectors performed variably, with the Chicken Industry, CRO, and Pig Industry concepts showing relatively good performance, while Near-term New Stocks, Photoresist, and Smart Speaker concepts performed poorly [1]