Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 1.24% at $3,768.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.11% at $44.115 per ounce [3]. - U.S. EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 607,000 barrels. WTI crude oil futures rose 2.21% to $64.81 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 2.02% to $68.32 per barrel [4]. - London base metals all rose, with LME copper up 3.46% at $10,320 per ton, LME zinc up 1.18% at $2,922.5 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.63% at $2,654.5 per ton, and LME nickel up 0.53% at $15,435 per ton [4]. - As of 2:20, U.S. soybeans fell 0.35%, U.S. corn fell 0.53%, U.S. soybean oil fell 0.22%, U.S. soybean meal fell 0.50%, and U.S. wheat fell 0.19% [5]. - As of 23:00, most domestic futures contracts closed higher. Soybean No. 2, palm oil, soybean meal, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and fuel oil rose more than 1%, while cotton fell slightly [5]. 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, 2025 [8]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit of certain futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [8]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced that 25,000 old urban residential areas are planned to be renovated in 2025, and 21,700 have been started from January to August [8]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent expressed disappointment that Fed Chair Powell did not set a clear agenda for interest rate cuts and called for a 100 - 150 basis point cut by the end of the year [8]. - The U.S. officially lowered tariffs on EU cars, effective August 1, 2025 [8]. - Fed's Daly fully supports the 25 - basis - point rate cut last week and said further policy adjustments may be needed [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Multiple departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to control cement and glass production capacity [12]. - As of the week of September 24, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 42.0%, up 5.7% week - on - week, and the weekly output was 701,000 tons, up 15.5% [12]. - As of September 24, 2025, China's methanol port inventory decreased by 65,600 tons to 1.4922 million tons [12]. - As of the week of September 22, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.833 million barrels to 14.922 million barrels [12]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels in the week ending September 19, 2025, while strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels [13]. - Eight international oil companies in the Kurdistan region of Iraq reached a preliminary agreement to resume oil exports [13]. Metal Futures - Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. started annual maintenance on its first - phase polysilicon production line, and the third - phase project is ready for maintenance [16]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, gold, and silver futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [16]. - The Antamina copper mine in Peru expects zinc production to increase by 67% this year, offsetting a 12% decline in copper production [16]. - From January to July 2025, the global copper market had a surplus of 101,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 401,000 tons in the same period last year [17]. - An accident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia led to the suspension of operations, and the company lowered its copper and gold sales forecasts for the third quarter [17]. Black - Series Futures - In mid - September, the daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the daily output of iron and steel products increased [20]. - Beibu Gulf Port in Guangxi suspended manganese ore pick - up due to a typhoon, with limited impact on inventory [20]. - On September 24, the auction price of coking coal in Linfen market rose significantly, with an average increase of about 92 yuan per ton [20]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit of iron ore, coke, and coking coal futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [21]. Agricultural Product Futures - The EU postponed the implementation of anti - deforestation regulations, providing a respite for palm oil exporters [23]. - As of September 20, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi decreased by about 300,000 tons compared with August [23]. - In August 2025, China's industrial feed output was 29.36 million tons, up 3.7% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year [25]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in July were 3.54 million tons, with a production of 5.11 million tons and an inventory of 2.57 million tons [26]. - The CNF price of Argentine soybeans imported into China decreased, and the cost of imported soybeans declined [26]. - A senior analyst predicted that Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may rise 27% in the first quarter of next year [26]. - The average pig - to - grain ratio in Guangdong Province entered the second - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the province will conduct frozen pork reserve purchases [26]. - Brazil's ANEC lowered its September soybean export forecast to 7.15 million tons and raised its corn export forecast to 7.61 million tons [27]. 3. Financial Markets Stocks - A - shares rose, with the ChiNext Index and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index hitting new highs. The semiconductor industry chain was strong, while AI hardware and the banking sector declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.8%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%, and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index rose 3.49%. The total trading volume was 2.35 trillion yuan [30]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.37%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.64%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$13.7 billion [30]. - Chery Automobile's H - shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at a final offer price of HK$30.75 per share [31]. - Mercedes - Benz plans to acquire a minority stake in A - share listed Qianli Technology [32]. Industries - Six departments issued a work plan for stable growth in the building materials industry, aiming for green building materials revenue to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2026 [33]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation solicited opinions on a new standard for food delivery platform services [35]. - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 145 domestic and 11 imported game licenses in September [35]. - The transportation department issued a plan to promote the integrated development of container rail - water intermodal transport, aiming for a 15% annual growth in volume by 2027 [35]. - From January to August, China's railway passenger volume increased by 6.7% year - on - year, freight volume increased by 2.6%, and fixed - asset investment increased by 5.6% [35]. - The "Blue Book on the Development of the Beidou Industry (2025)" showed that the total output value of China's satellite navigation and location - based services industry reached 575.8 billion yuan in 2024, and the number of new Beidou - supported terminals is expected to exceed 400 million by the end of 2028 [36]. Overseas Markets - The U.S. and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, with the U.S. lowering tariffs on EU cars and the EU getting tariff exemptions for certain products [37]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent criticized Fed Chair Powell for not setting a clear interest - rate - cut agenda and called for a 100 - 150 basis point cut by the end of the year. The Treasury is considering a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina [37]. - The U.S. government is negotiating to restructure a $2.3 billion energy department loan to Lithium Americas through equity investment [39]. - U.S. new home sales in August reached an annualized rate of 800,000 units, far exceeding expectations, and the inventory of new homes for sale decreased [39]. - Bank of England Governor Bailey said there is room for interest rate cuts, depending on inflation [40]. - Australia's CPI in August rose 3% year - on - year, reaching the upper limit of the RBA's inflation target range [40]. - Germany's September IFO business expectations and sentiment indices declined [41]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks fell slightly, with the Dow down 0.37%, the S&P 500 down 0.28%, and the Nasdaq down 0.33%. Chinese concept stocks generally rose [42]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX Index rising 0.23%, the French CAC40 Index falling 0.57%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rising 0.29% [42]. - Saudi Arabia is considering relaxing foreign ownership restrictions on listed companies, leading to a 5% rise in the Saudi All - Share Index [44]. - The Japanese Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.3% to a new high, while the South Korean KOSPI Index fell 0.45% after hitting a new high [44]. - South Korean securities companies may resume U.S. stock trading services in early November [44]. Commodities - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit of multiple futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [45]. - International precious metal futures fell, international oil prices rose, London base metals rose, and global steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year [45][46][47]. Bonds - Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, and bond prices fell. The central bank conducted 401.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.7 billion yuan [48]. - Commercial banks can use certain bonds as collateral for treasury cash time deposits [48]. - The issuance scale of local government bonds from January to August reached 7.68 trillion yuan, a 41.9% year - on - year increase [48]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the issuance of UK government bonds faced weak demand [48][50]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed down 86 basis points at 7.1219, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.65% [51]. 4. Upcoming Data Releases and Events Data Releases - A series of economic data from Germany, France, the UK, the U.S., and China Hong Kong will be released on September 25 [53]. Events - Multiple central bank meetings, policy announcements, corporate events, and international meetings are scheduled for September 25 [55].

Macro Economic Updates - The National Development and Reform Commission has released a notice soliciting opinions on the "Basic Rules for the Medium- and Long-term Electricity Market (Draft for Comments)", emphasizing the promotion of inter-provincial and intra-provincial trading coupling and orderly connection [6] - To implement a more proactive macro policy, the Ministry of Finance and the People's Bank of China held a second group leader meeting to strengthen the coordination between fiscal and monetary policies [6] Industry Dynamics - Strong demand for lawn mowers and window cleaning machines is predicted, with IDC forecasting high growth in sales of cleaning robots, related stocks include Ninebot (689009) and Ecovacs (603486) [8] - Zhejiang is advancing the marketization of new energy electricity prices, highlighting the importance of optimized services, related stocks include Guoneng Rixin (301162) and Longxin Group (300682) [8] - The Shanghai Stock Exchange hosted a salon on brain-computer interface industry, related stocks include Xiangyu Medical (688626) and UCloud (688158) [8] Company Focus - EVE Energy (300014) has officially unveiled its solid-state battery research institute in Chengdu, with the "Longquan No. 2" all-solid-state battery successfully rolling off the production line [10] - Anfu Technology (603031) has completed the tape-out verification of the new generation "Fuxi" architecture chip developed by Xiangdi, which shows excellent performance in graphics rendering and parallel computing [10] - Digital China (000034) stated in a research meeting that it aims to enhance its AI infrastructure, further enriching computing device forms and innovating architecture design based on its KunTai intelligent computing products [10] Market Review and Outlook - On September 4, the total trading volume of the two markets was 25,443 billion, with 2,106 stocks rising and 2,908 stocks falling. The net capital outflow from the market was 1,229.75 billion, with trading volume increasing by 1,802 billion compared to the previous day [12] - The three major indices opened slightly lower and fluctuated downwards, closing with a bearish candlestick pattern. Large-cap stocks underperformed while small-cap stocks showed relative resilience [12] - Market hotspots included significant net inflows in banking and retail sectors, while semiconductor and communication services sectors saw substantial outflows [12] - The report suggests that the market may experience further downward testing of support levels, with potential for a rebound if accompanied by reduced volume, indicating a possible short-term trading opportunity [13]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced fluctuations with a total market turnover exceeding 2.9 trillion yuan, while sectors such as CPO, semiconductors, and copper cable high-speed connections saw significant declines [1] - The banking, precious metals, PEEK materials, electricity, and industrial mother machine sectors showed gains [1] - The CSI A500 index fell by 1.1%, the CSI 300 index decreased by 0.7%, the ChiNext index dropped by 2.9%, and the STAR Market 50 index declined by 2.1% [1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index experienced a slight decrease of 0.2% [1] Index Performance - The CSI 300 index, which tracks 300 large and liquid stocks, recorded a decline of 0.7% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 14.1 times and a valuation percentile of 64.4% since its inception in 2005 [2] - The CSI A500 index, covering 500 securities from various industries, fell by 1.1% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 16.6 times and a valuation percentile of 71.4% since its inception in 2004 [2] - The ChiNext index, consisting of 100 large and liquid stocks, saw a decline of 2.9% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 41.9 times and a valuation percentile of 37.5% since its inception in 2010 [2] - The STAR Market 50 index, which includes 50 large and liquid stocks, decreased by 2.1% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 186.8 times and a valuation percentile of 99.9% since its inception in 2020 [2] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, tracking 50 large and active stocks listed in Hong Kong, fell by 0.2% with a rolling price-to-earnings ratio of 10.4 times and a valuation percentile of 63.2% since its inception in 2002 [2]

Core Viewpoints - The market shows signs of cooling, with a net sell of 1 billion in financing, marking the first net sell in eight trading days, primarily driven by the recent listing application of ShengX Technology, which has surged over 400% this year [1] - The A-share market is experiencing a supply-demand imbalance due to restrictions on refinancing and share reductions, which suppress speculative sentiment [2] - Despite the cooling signs, new hotspots emerge, such as Deepseek, which positively impacted the domestic chip sector [2] Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.45%, while over 70% of stocks declined, indicating a challenging environment for outperforming the index [5] - The STAR Market has significantly contributed to the index's rise, with a market cap of approximately 13% of the Shanghai Stock Exchange, and key stocks like Hanwang and HaiX Information hitting the daily limit [6][7] - The electronic sector's total market cap has surpassed that of the banking sector, reflecting a "technology bull market" [7] Market Acceleration - The market is showing signs of acceleration, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key resistance levels in a shorter time frame, indicating a potential for further upward movement [8][9][11] - The index's rapid ascent from 3400 to 3800 points occurred in just five trading days, suggesting a strong momentum [9] Investment Strategies - In the current uneven market, maintaining a balanced portfolio and ensuring adequate positions is crucial for investors [13] - The recent performance of the CSI 300 and Hang Seng Tech Index indicates potential opportunities for investors [15] - Recommendations include following balanced investment strategies and focusing on core assets with safety margins [18]

Group 1: Market Trends - The global health supplement market is projected to reach $132.4 billion in 2023, with China's market size at 224 billion yuan, driven by aging population and new consumption trends [5][6] - The demand for health supplements is experiencing rigid growth due to aging, while new consumption trends are expanding market channels, with online sales accounting for 58% of the market [6][7] - The pet supplement market is emerging as a new growth point, with a market size of 1.6 billion yuan, indicating significant development potential [8] Group 2: Alcohol Industry Insights - The white liquor market is expected to face challenges during the Mid-Autumn Festival, with total sales potentially declining by 10% to 20% and total revenue possibly dropping over 30% [9] - Inventory turnover days in the white liquor industry have increased by 15 to 20 days year-on-year, indicating pressure on companies due to rising inventory levels [10] - Different liquor companies are adopting varied strategies, with some launching new products to cater to diverse consumer needs, reflecting a competitive market landscape [11] Group 3: Banking Sector Developments - The M1 growth rate reached 5.6% in July 2025, indicating increased liquidity among residents, while the proportion of time deposits is declining due to falling housing prices [13] - Government policies are optimizing credit structures and promoting economic growth to avoid recession, impacting the financial market [14] - A-share market returns are surpassing fixed income products, leading to a shift of funds towards the stock market, influenced by a weaker dollar [15][16] Group 4: Company Performance Highlights - Xian Da Co. reported a revenue of 1.423 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 11.82%, with net profit reaching 136 million yuan, up 2,561.58% [20] - Jie Jie Microelectronics achieved a revenue of 1.601 billion yuan, a 26.77% increase, with net profit of 247 million yuan, up 15.35% [21] - Fuyao Glass reported a revenue of 21.447 billion yuan, a 16.94% increase, with net profit growing by 37.33% to 4.805 billion yuan [23]

Core Insights - Since the "9.24" market rally last year, 209 mutual funds have doubled their net asset value, with over 70% being actively managed equity funds [2][5][19] - The strong market performance has led to a resurgence of active equity funds, which have significantly outperformed index funds, with 155 funds achieving a doubling of returns [5][14] - The best-performing active equity funds have outpaced the highest-gaining index funds by over 90 percentage points, and the top active funds on the Beijing Stock Exchange have shown a difference of nearly 150 percentage points compared to their index counterparts [16][19] Active Equity Funds Performance - As of August 18, 2023, 155 out of the 209 funds that have doubled their net asset value are actively managed equity funds, indicating a strong recovery in this sector [5][19] - The average return of active equity funds is now comparable to that of index funds, marking a significant turnaround from previous years when they underperformed [3][19] Sector-Specific Insights - The Beijing Stock Exchange thematic funds have emerged as leaders in performance, with 11 out of 124 doubling funds being from this category, and the top three performing funds all belonging to this theme [6][7] - The North China 50 Index has seen a substantial increase of over 162% since September 2022, driving the performance of related thematic funds [7][19] - Key sectors such as dividends, artificial intelligence, banking, and innovative pharmaceuticals have shown strong performance, with funds focused on these areas achieving significant returns, some exceeding 170% [8][19] Comparison with Passive Funds - While 54 passive index funds have also doubled their returns since the "9.24" rally, their numbers are significantly lower compared to active funds, highlighting the latter's superior performance in the current market environment [15][19] - The best-performing passive index funds have shown growth rates of around 177% for the North China 50 Index, but still lag behind the top active funds [17][19]

Core Viewpoint - The current market shows restraint towards high-performance industries, suggesting that the small-cap sector should slow down its pace [1] Industry Analysis - The strong industry trends with high earnings realization are still favored, while the small-cap stocks with a price-to-earnings ratio of 148 times and negative TTM profits lack reasonable upward potential [1] - The valuation of the five industries previously highlighted (non-ferrous metals, telecommunications, innovative pharmaceuticals, gaming, and military industry) is more reasonable compared to the small-cap sector and the CSI 2000 index [1] - The recent increase in small-cap stocks is primarily driven by liquidity rather than structural profit growth, which is not as robust as in 2015 [1] Market Dynamics - The main sources of incremental funds for small-cap stocks are quantitative products, small active equity products, and retail investors, with financing heat in this sector rising faster than in large-cap stocks [1] - There is a potential challenge for the small-cap and banking structure once the macroeconomic logic is clarified [1] Investment Strategy - The recommended investment strategy focuses on the five strong industry trends while avoiding participation in misleading capital relay trades [1]

Group 1 - The issuance of new funds remains active in August, with 72 new funds launched as of August 4, 2023, including a single day where 21 funds were issued [1][2] - The majority of new funds are equity products, with 16 active equity funds and 32 passive index funds launched, alongside other mixed and bond funds [3] - Some funds, like Morgan Asset Management's product, experienced "one-day sell-out" status, raising approximately 2.8 billion yuan on the first day of issuance [3] Group 2 - Fund companies are shifting their strategies, focusing on filling product lines rather than solely increasing scale through new fund launches, indicating a change in market approach [4] - Many fund companies are now issuing more bond funds and multi-asset products due to previous challenges in selling active equity funds, reflecting a strategic realignment [4][5] - The passive investment sector is growing, with many mid-sized fund companies entering the market through index funds, as the demand for ETFs rises [5] Group 3 - Market sentiment is optimistic, with expectations for a strong market performance, particularly in sectors like AI applications and semiconductors, as well as opportunities in high-dividend stocks [6][7] - Fund managers are focusing on sectors with potential growth driven by technological innovation, indicating a shift towards digital economy-related investments [6][7]

Group 1: A-Share Market Performance - In July, the A-share market experienced a volatile upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 3.74%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 5.2%, and the ChiNext Index gaining 8.14% [1] - The average daily trading volume was approximately 1.63 trillion yuan, and the average daily margin balance was about 1.79 trillion yuan [1] - The steel, pharmaceutical, building materials, communication, and electronics sectors showed the highest gains, while banking, utilities, transportation, food and beverage, and automotive sectors lagged behind [1] Group 2: Macro Analysis - In July, the manufacturing PMI fell by 0.4 percentage points to 49.3, with production, new orders, and raw material inventory all declining [2] - New orders decreased to 49.4, and new exports dropped to 47.1, both below seasonal averages [2] - The construction PMI fell by 2.2 percentage points to 50.6, while the services PMI decreased slightly to 50, indicating a downturn in both sectors [3] Group 3: U.S. Economic Impact - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was below expectations, with only 73,000 jobs added, leading to a drop in risk appetite globally [4] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, and previous months' job additions were significantly revised downward, affecting market perceptions of the economy [4] - The adjustment in employment data has led to a decline in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield and a drop in the dollar, while gold prices increased [4] Group 4: Market Strategy - The market is expected to experience a short-term adjustment followed by a potential upward trend, with high-risk preference funds possibly exiting due to a lack of continuous hot spots [5] - There is a focus on structural opportunities in industries such as AI applications, military, and non-bank sectors, while banking remains a defensive option [6] - The market is showing signs of a shift in risk appetite, with a more rational approach to investment as it moves towards a healthier state [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - The report highlights the continuous growth in the PCB and AI server sectors, indicating a strong demand for computing hardware [8] - The solid-state battery production timeline has been accelerated, with several companies announcing their plans for mass production [8] - A new childcare subsidy plan has been introduced, providing 3,600 yuan per child annually for children under three years old, which may benefit related companies [8] Group 2: Industry Dynamics - The report notes that the PCB industry is experiencing high growth alongside AI server demand, with specific companies like Shenghong Technology and Shenzhen South Circuit being mentioned as key players [8] - The solid-state battery sector is entering a rapid industrialization phase, with companies such as Liyuanheng and Haishun New Materials highlighted for their involvement [8] - The introduction of the national childcare subsidy is expected to positively impact companies like Kidswant and Aiyingshi, which are focused on childcare services [8] Group 3: Company Focus - Xuefeng Technology plans to acquire a 51% stake in Shengshi Putian for 154 million yuan through a private agreement [10] - Xiangdian Co. intends to purchase a 12.5% stake in Tongda Electromagnetic Energy for 208 million yuan from its controlling shareholder [10] - Fuwei Co. has received notices for seat product development from well-known joint venture and domestic brands [10] - Sinochem Equipment is set to issue shares to acquire 100% stakes in two companies from China National Chemical Equipment and Beijing Bluestar Energy Investment [10] Group 4: Market Review and Outlook - On July 29, the total trading volume in the two markets reached 1.8032 trillion yuan, with 2,142 stocks rising and 2,840 stocks falling [12] - The Shanghai Composite Index opened flat and then rose, with all three major indices closing with small gains, while the ChiNext and STAR Market indices continued to reach new highs [12] - The report indicates a potential upward breakout for the Shanghai Composite Index, approaching the July 23 high of 3,613 points, with a generally optimistic short-term outlook [12]