Report Overview - Report Date: December 31, 2025 [2] - Reported Industry: Eggs [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Core View - The spot price of eggs has been stable in recent days after rising before the New Year's Day. The futures market is oscillating at the bottom, and the main contract is gradually shifting to 03. The near - month contracts are significantly reducing positions. It is recommended to pay attention to the post - holiday spot price performance. If the current oscillation continues, short - sellers may return in mid - January, focusing on the 02 and 03 contracts after the holiday. The far - month contracts are generally bullish due to the logic of production capacity reduction, and the strategy is to make rolling operations after a decline [8] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Market Review: For egg futures, the 2601 contract closed at 3072 with a 0.03% increase, trading 12,547 lots and having a position of 21,414 with a decrease of 22,102; the 2602 contract closed at 2938 with a 0.03% decrease, trading 122,709 lots and having a position of 128,794 with a decrease of 13,173; the 2603 contract closed at 2962 with a 0.34% decrease, trading 115,703 lots and having a position of 208,380 with an increase of 10,677. The average price in the main production areas was 3.02 yuan/jin, up 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day, and in the main sales areas, it was 3.24 yuan/jin, down 0.01 yuan/jin from the previous day [7][8] - Operation Suggestions: Pay attention to the post - holiday spot price performance. If the oscillation continues, short - sellers may return in mid - January, mainly focusing on the 02 and 03 contracts after the holiday. For far - month contracts, adopt a strategy of rolling operations after a decline [8] 2. Industry News - Inventory: As of the end of November 2025, the national monthly inventory of laying hens was about 1.352 billion, a month - on - month decrease of 0.52%, ending the previous continuous growth. The year - on - year increase was 5.3%, indicating significant supply - side pressure [9] - Replenishment: In November 2025, the monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises was about 39.55 million, slightly increasing from 39.15 million in October but a significant 13.5% decrease compared with the same period in 2024. The total replenishment from August to November 2025 was about 157.71 million, compared with about 180.11 million in the same period last year [9] - Culling Volume: The culling volume has been decreasing recently. From the three weeks up to December 18, the national culling volume was 20.82 million, 19.84 million, and 19.67 million respectively, showing a continuous decline [9] - Culling Age: As of December 18, the average culling age was 486 days, the same as the previous week and 6 days earlier than the previous month [10] 3. Data Overview - Multiple data charts are provided, including the average price of eggs in the main production areas, the seasonal trend of eggs in December, the basis of the 12 - contract eggs, the 12 - 02 spread of eggs, the monthly inventory of laying hens in China, and the layer farming profit. The data sources are Wind, Jianxin Futures Research and Investment Center, Zhuochuang Information, and Trading Famen [10][12][17]

Group 1 - The main contract for egg futures experienced a sharp decline, reaching a low of 3210.00 yuan, with a current price of 3216.00 yuan, reflecting a drop of 2.01% [1] - Zhengxin Futures indicates that the January egg contract is showing a fluctuating trend, with supply pressures due to a rapid decline in the price of culling chickens and an increase in overall inventory levels [1] - Nanhua Futures reports a recovery in national egg market demand, with improved trading activity and a reduction in previously accumulated inventory, leading to a low rebound in egg prices [2] Group 2 - Wukuang Futures highlights the need to monitor upward pressure on egg prices, suggesting a short-term bullish and long-term bearish strategy due to ongoing losses affecting culling sentiment and the dynamics between consumption stocking and capacity reduction [2] - The overall inventory is at a historically high level, and while there is a slight decrease in the delivery volume from major production areas, the demand is expected to remain limited until mid-December [1] - The market is currently experiencing a seasonal accumulation of inventory, which may exert pressure on prices in the short term, but long-term prospects are positive for price increases during the Spring Festival [2]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for agricultural products shows mixed performance, with egg futures experiencing a downward trend, closing at 3450.00 CNY/ton, down 3.57% from the day's high of 3450.00 CNY and low of 3368.00 CNY [1] - Hualian Futures indicates that the rapid increase in egg prices has not met downstream consumption expectations, leading to slower sales in some markets. The supply remains ample due to high levels of laying hen stocks, which are expected to continue to rise [1] - According to Minmetals Futures, the increase in new laying hens and limited culling of old hens has resulted in a large supply, but high temperatures are affecting egg production rates. The demand side is becoming more active as egg prices drop to relatively low levels [2] Group 2 - Jianxin Futures reports that the stock of laying hens has been on the rise, with a monthly stock of approximately 1.356 billion hens as of the end of July, reflecting a 1.2% increase from June and a 6.2% increase year-on-year [3] - The current market is expected to see a seasonal adjustment in August, but historical trends suggest there will be at least one more price increase during this month. The pressure points for prices are estimated to be around 4.0-4.2 CNY [3] - The futures market may experience continued pressure if the spot prices do not recover in the coming week, with the September contract potentially facing further downward adjustments. However, if spot prices rise again, their sustainability will need to be monitored closely [3]

Group 1: Report Basic Information - Report industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the national egg price remained stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.73 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.00 yuan/jin, also unchanged from yesterday. The 08 contract fell 0.23% [7] - Last week, the egg price continued to be weak first and then stable. The northern red egg area was significantly weak, and Beijing in the main sales area had great pressure, driving down the prices in the surrounding areas. The egg price gradually stabilized in the middle of the week, and there was a slight increase in the southern region last Friday, with the peak - season expectation gradually approaching [8] Operation Suggestions - Although the fundamental direction is currently bearish, it is not recommended to chase short positions as the price is close to the historical bottom range and the spot still has upward momentum in the future. - Focus on whether the spot price has a continuous upward trend next week. Long positions can be placed on the 09 contract for band - trading. Risk - averse investors can buy put options to hedge the risk of the spot price not rising. Subsequently, pay attention to the increase in the spot price and the basis, and adjust the positions in real - time. There is no sign of a large - scale trend reversal for now [8] Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on an upward trend. As of the end of June, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.34 billion, a 0.4% month - on - month increase, with a 6.8% year - on - year increase compared to the same period last year [9] - In June, the monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises was about 40.75 million, slightly less than 44.98 million in May and slightly more than 39.98 million in the same period in 2024. The monthly replenishment volume in June was moderately high in the past eight years [9] - The culling volume of chickens has gradually recovered since May, reaching a phased peak in June and then slightly declining due to the peak - season expectation in the summer. As of July 10, the average culling age of chickens was 504 days, 2 days earlier than last week and 8 days earlier than last month [10]

Report Information - Industry: Eggs [1] - Date: June 25, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Agricultural Products Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [4] 1. Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The current supply-demand situation in the egg market remains oversupplied, and the prices of each contract are at historically low levels. The recent price rebound is considered a short - term phenomenon and is difficult to form a trend. However, as time passes, the market's purchasing sentiment may gradually improve, and there may be support at the previous price bottom. The downside space of the 08 contract is relatively small, but the operation rhythm is difficult, with the possibility of slow declines and sharp rises. Continuous attention should be paid to the intensity of chicken culling [8]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Market Review**: - For the 2507 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 2881, the opening price was 2837, the highest price was 2853, the lowest price was 2817, the closing price was 2819, with a decline of 62 and a decline rate of 2.15%. The trading volume was 24,186, the open interest was 38,772, and the open interest decreased by 2084 [7]. - For the 2508 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3579, the opening price was 3543, the highest price was 3570, the lowest price was 3530, the closing price was 3551, with a decline of 28 and a decline rate of 0.78%. The trading volume was 131,572, the open interest was 236,582, and the open interest decreased by 400 [7]. - For the 2509 egg contract, the previous settlement price was 3637, the opening price was 3622, the highest price was 3645, the lowest price was 3611, the closing price was 3642, with an increase of 5 and an increase rate of 0.14%. The trading volume was 45,989, the open interest was 143,203, and the open interest increased by 4600 [7]. - **Analysis and Suggestions**: The national egg price is stable today. The average price in the main production areas is 2.91 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/jin from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas is 3.00 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday. The 08 contract declined by 0.78%. The egg price stabilized and rebounded last week. After the expectation of the plum - rain season was priced in advance, the low price was realized earlier. Due to continuous losses, farmers accelerated the culling of chickens, reducing the supply pressure and leading to a recent price rebound. However, the oversupply situation remains the main theme. To see a continuous price rebound, it is necessary to see a continuous increase in culling or a decrease in the egg - laying rate due to high temperatures after the plum - rain season, which is difficult to achieve in the short term. As time goes by, the market's purchasing sentiment may improve, and there may be support at the previous price bottom. The downside space of the 08 contract is relatively small, but the operation rhythm is difficult, and continuous attention should be paid to the culling intensity [8]. 3.2 Industry News - The inventory of laying hens is on an increasing trend. As of the end of May, the monthly inventory of laying hens in the country was about 1.334 billion, with a month - on - month increase of 0.4%, showing a certain degree of growth for 5 consecutive months, and a year - on - year increase of 7.2% compared with the same period last year [9]. - The monthly output of laying - hen chicks from sample enterprises in May was about 44.98 million, slightly less than 46.99 million in April, and slightly higher than 44.54 million in the same period in 2024, ranking medium in the past 8 years [9]. - The national chicken culling volume in the first three weeks as of June 6 was 19.97 million, 21.02 million, and 19.53 million respectively. The culling volume has gradually recovered since May, showing a month - on - month increase for 4 consecutive weeks, with a slight decline this week, and the absolute value is slightly higher than the average of the previous three years. As of June 12, the average age of culled chickens was 512 days, 3 days earlier than last week and 22 days earlier than last month [9]. 3.3 Data Overview - The report presents figures on the monthly inventory of laying hens in China (in billions) and the profit of egg - chicken farming (in yuan per chicken), but no specific data analysis is provided [10].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The future trend of the disk's peak - season contracts depends on the timing and space of seasonal price increases. Considering the postponed peak production capacity this year, the ineffective elimination of excess capacity, and the early bottoming - out and stabilization of the spot market leading to a slowdown in culling, the upward space of the near - month contracts with a large premium may be restricted. The rebound cycle has come earlier, but the imagination space is also limited. It is recommended to mainly adopt a short - term wait - and - see or range - trading approach, and pay attention to the upper pressure on the disk in the medium term, waiting for a rebound to short [2][19]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Spot Rebounds Early - Since late April, egg prices have been continuously weakening, and after the May Day holiday, the price increase failed, leading to continuous losses in the breeding industry. As the Meiyu season deepened and losses increased, the supporting force at the bottom gradually accumulated [4]. - The short - term rebound in egg prices comes from three aspects: more culling (the culling chicken price has continuously declined, and the chicken age has dropped to 509 days, about 30 days lower than the peak, equivalent to one - month early culling); more molting in the industrial end, which intercepts part of the supply, and an increase in downstream cold - storage egg storage, traders' low - price replenishment, and a decrease in circulation inventory, with marginal improvement in demand; in late June, the newly opened production mainly comes from chicks replenished around the Spring Festival (late January to early February). Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the proportion of small eggs representing new supply has decreased by 0.1% to 17.05%, reducing the marginal pressure on small - egg supply and supporting the overall market [4]. - By late June, the mainstream red - egg producing area quoted 2.6 yuan/jin, rebounding 0.3 yuan or 13% from the mid - month low, and the pink - egg price in Guantao increased by 0.06 yuan to 2.62 yuan/jin. The culling chicken price stopped falling and stabilized, with a slight local rebound, indicating that the culling progress has eased [4]. 3.2 Supply Pressure Significantly Postponed This Year - Due to continuous low costs and high profits, the replenishment scale has been significantly high since the second half of last year. Although there were breeding losses in the first half of this year, high replenishment did not end, resulting in a significantly large current laying - hen inventory in production, and the trend is still increasing. The supply scale is comparable to the oversupplied years of 2017 and 2020, but the supply rhythm is different [9]. - In 2017 and 2020, the loss periods were mainly concentrated from around the Spring Festival to the first half of the year, and the production capacity elimination (including reduced replenishment and increased culling) also mainly occurred during this period. In contrast, losses this year were concentrated after the May Day holiday, and production capacity clearance in the first half of the year was not obvious. The theoretical inventory peak deduced from the replenishment end is in October this year, and the supply scale will increase in the next few months, which is fundamentally different from the situation in 2017 and 2020 when production capacity elimination was basically completed before the Meiyu season [9]. - On the culling end, the market sentiment has changed from "optimistic" to "cautious", but it is still far from "panic", meaning there is still room for future production capacity elimination. Although the culling chicken age has been advanced by one month since May, it is still insufficient compared with the large supply scale and cannot fundamentally reverse the situation of increasing supply. In 2017 and 2020, the chicken age once dropped below 450 days, and the culling chicken price was significantly at a discount to the white - chicken price, while currently, the culling chicken price is still at a premium to the white - chicken price, and the current level of culling is not enough [10][14]. 3.3 The Spot Bottoming - out Time Is the Key to the Near - Month Contract Trend - The two key points determining the trend of the disk's peak - season contracts are the timing of the spot's seasonal price increase and the potential space. The timing of the spot's seasonal bottoming - out determines the trend of the two peak - season near - month contracts 08 and 09. If the spot bottoms out early and the price increase is sharp, the 08 and 09 contracts have enough time to benefit from the price increase and can still be fully utilized by long - position holders with a large premium over the spot. Conversely, if the spot bottoms out late and the imagination space is limited, the increase of the 08 and 09 contracts will be restricted, and they are prone to have their premiums squeezed before approaching delivery [18]. - In terms of space, if the price bottoms out early, production capacity elimination will stagnate, which will limit the imagination space of the peak - season and forward contracts. Conversely, if production capacity elimination can continue deeply, it will open up the imagination space of the peak - season contracts. Considering the current early rebound of the spot and the limited future imagination space, the future market trend is more likely to develop towards the first scenario [18].

Core Viewpoints - The main sentiment in the egg futures market is bearish, with institutions suggesting to wait for rebounds to short the market [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Egg futures experienced a decline, with the main contract closing at 3545.00 yuan, down 1.03% [1] - Short-term support exists due to increased channel replenishment and cold storage demand, but seasonal demand weakness is expected as the rainy season approaches [1] - The overall supply remains ample, putting pressure on egg prices, while the elimination of older hens is increasing [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Changjiang Futures suggests a bearish outlook for the egg market in August and September, recommending to short on rebounds, with pressure levels for August contracts noted at 3650-3750 yuan and September at 3770-3820 yuan [1] - Zhongyuan Futures indicates that the fundamental weakness in the egg market persists, with concerns over seasonal demand and limited positive factors supporting price increases [2] - Hualian Futures highlights a relatively ample supply in the medium term, with pressure levels for the August contract set at 3700 yuan, while the market remains cautious due to quality issues and seasonal demand [3]

Core Viewpoints - Egg futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping to 2933.00 yuan, currently reported at 2938.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.61% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Everbright Futures suggests that with general terminal market demand and low procurement enthusiasm from downstream sectors, it may be prudent to either hold no positions or liquidate positions during the holiday [1] - Changjiang Futures indicates that short-term egg prices are at high levels, with downstream confidence in future prices being low, leading to cautious procurement and a shift from active stocking to inventory reduction [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Everbright Futures notes that while the current market shows some support due to holiday demand, the pressure from increasing supply and declining trade willingness post-holiday could lead to further price declines [1] - Changjiang Futures highlights that the overall short-term supply and demand are both increasing, with a warning of potential price drops after the holiday, while long-term supply is expected to remain high due to increased breeding profits [1] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Everbright Futures recommends monitoring terminal demand and feed material prices during the holiday for potential price disturbances [1] - Changjiang Futures advises a cautious approach with light positions during the holiday, focusing on key price levels of 3100 as resistance and 2950 as support [1]