8月4日，国内期市农副产品板块涨跌参半。其中，鸡蛋期货主力合约开盘报3450.00元/吨，今日盘中低 位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，鸡蛋主力最高触及3450.00元，下方探低3368.00元，跌幅达3.57%。 华联期货指出，前期蛋价涨势迅猛，下游终端消费不及预期，部分市场走货速度放缓迹象。中期来看， 在产蛋鸡存栏延续高位运行，供应宽裕。新开产蛋鸡陆续增加，同时受高温天气影响整体上蛋重偏慢， 小码蛋压力偏大，一定程度拖累大码蛋价格，造成整体蛋价的下行压力。主力合约虽为旺季合约，但大 幅升水，短期压力位参考3713，期权方面，可卖出虚值看涨期权。 五矿期货表示，新开产持续增多，老鸡出栏有限，在产存栏偏大，但高温影响蛋率，优质大码偏紧，需 求端随着蛋价跌至相对低位，贸易商采购积极性增加，预计本周蛋价先稳后涨，受存栏压制涨幅或不 大。新开产增多叠加淘鸡不畅，供应偏大导致现货在旺季走势不及预期，近月空头择机继续挤出升水， 盘面盛行反套逻辑；不过，由于市场对8、9月份旺季反弹仍有期待，随着持仓扩大后盘面分歧的加剧， 容易在现货涨价时酝酿反向波动，考虑偏高存栏贯穿旺季且盘面后续合约均无法反应现货高点，中期仍 待反弹后的抛空， ...

Group 1: Report Basic Information - Report industry: Eggs [1] - Report date: July 16, 2025 [2] - Research team: Agricultural products research team, including Yu Lanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, and Liu Youran [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Today, the national egg price remained stable. The average price in the main production areas was 2.73 yuan/jin, unchanged from yesterday; the average price in the main sales areas was 3.00 yuan/jin, also unchanged from yesterday. The 08 contract fell 0.23% [7] - Last week, the egg price continued to be weak first and then stable. The northern red egg area was significantly weak, and Beijing in the main sales area had great pressure, driving down the prices in the surrounding areas. The egg price gradually stabilized in the middle of the week, and there was a slight increase in the southern region last Friday, with the peak - season expectation gradually approaching [8] Operation Suggestions - Although the fundamental direction is currently bearish, it is not recommended to chase short positions as the price is close to the historical bottom range and the spot still has upward momentum in the future. - Focus on whether the spot price has a continuous upward trend next week. Long positions can be placed on the 09 contract for band - trading. Risk - averse investors can buy put options to hedge the risk of the spot price not rising. Subsequently, pay attention to the increase in the spot price and the basis, and adjust the positions in real - time. There is no sign of a large - scale trend reversal for now [8] Group 3: Industry News - The inventory of laying hens in production is on an upward trend. As of the end of June, the monthly inventory of laying hens in production nationwide was about 1.34 billion, a 0.4% month - on - month increase, with a 6.8% year - on - year increase compared to the same period last year [9] - In June, the monthly output of layer chicks from sample enterprises was about 40.75 million, slightly less than 44.98 million in May and slightly more than 39.98 million in the same period in 2024. The monthly replenishment volume in June was moderately high in the past eight years [9] - The culling volume of chickens has gradually recovered since May, reaching a phased peak in June and then slightly declining due to the peak - season expectation in the summer. As of July 10, the average culling age of chickens was 504 days, 2 days earlier than last week and 8 days earlier than last month [10]

021-60635732 yulanlan@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F0301101 行业 鸡蛋 日期 2025 年 6 月 25 日 农产品研究团队 021-60635740 linzhenlei@ccb.ccbfutures.co m期货从业资格号：F3055047 021-60635727 wanghaifeng@ccb.ccbfutures.c om期货从业资格号：F0230741 021-60635572 .com 期货从业资格号：F3076808 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 研究员：余兰兰 研究员：林贞磊 研究员：王海峰 研究员：洪辰亮 hongchenliang@ccb.ccbfutures 研究员：刘悠然 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | 表1：行情回顾 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- ...

专题报告 2025-06-23 鸡蛋：时间提前，空间有限 王 俊 农产品研究员 从业资格号：F0273729 交易咨询号：Z0002942 010-60167188 wangja@wkqh.cn 报告要点： 盘面旺季合约已成为近月，未来走势有赖于季节性涨价的时点和空间两个因素。考虑今年产能 高峰后置、过剩产能尚未有效去化的事实，叠加现货提前见底走稳并导致淘汰放缓，或相应限 制升水偏大的近月合约往上的空间。前期我们在推荐空单的同时，建议留意持仓过大时旺季合 约反抽可能，目前行情进入到后半段，反弹周期提前到来，但想象空间也受到限制。策略上建 议短期观望或区间思路为主，中期留意盘面上方的压力，等待反弹抛空。 农产品研究 | 鸡蛋 鸡蛋：时间提前，空间有限 一、现货提前反弹 4 月下旬以来蛋价连续走弱，尤其五一后拉涨失败，养殖陷入持续亏损中，随着梅雨季的深入 和亏损幅度加大，下方托底力量也在逐渐积聚。短期蛋价反弹的力量来自于三个方面：一是淘 汰增多，淘鸡价格连续下跌，鸡龄下降至 509 天，较高峰期鸡龄下行约 30 天，相当于提前淘 汰一个月的量；二是产业端换羽增多，截流部分供应，同时下游冷库蛋入库、贸易商逢低补货 ...

Core Viewpoints - The main sentiment in the egg futures market is bearish, with institutions suggesting to wait for rebounds to short the market [1][2][3] Group 1: Market Analysis - Egg futures experienced a decline, with the main contract closing at 3545.00 yuan, down 1.03% [1] - Short-term support exists due to increased channel replenishment and cold storage demand, but seasonal demand weakness is expected as the rainy season approaches [1] - The overall supply remains ample, putting pressure on egg prices, while the elimination of older hens is increasing [1] Group 2: Institutional Insights - Changjiang Futures suggests a bearish outlook for the egg market in August and September, recommending to short on rebounds, with pressure levels for August contracts noted at 3650-3750 yuan and September at 3770-3820 yuan [1] - Zhongyuan Futures indicates that the fundamental weakness in the egg market persists, with concerns over seasonal demand and limited positive factors supporting price increases [2] - Hualian Futures highlights a relatively ample supply in the medium term, with pressure levels for the August contract set at 3700 yuan, while the market remains cautious due to quality issues and seasonal demand [3]

Core Viewpoints - Egg futures are experiencing weak fluctuations, with the main contract dropping to 2933.00 yuan, currently reported at 2938.00 yuan, reflecting a decline of 1.61% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Everbright Futures suggests that with general terminal market demand and low procurement enthusiasm from downstream sectors, it may be prudent to either hold no positions or liquidate positions during the holiday [1] - Changjiang Futures indicates that short-term egg prices are at high levels, with downstream confidence in future prices being low, leading to cautious procurement and a shift from active stocking to inventory reduction [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Everbright Futures notes that while the current market shows some support due to holiday demand, the pressure from increasing supply and declining trade willingness post-holiday could lead to further price declines [1] - Changjiang Futures highlights that the overall short-term supply and demand are both increasing, with a warning of potential price drops after the holiday, while long-term supply is expected to remain high due to increased breeding profits [1] Group 3: Strategic Recommendations - Everbright Futures recommends monitoring terminal demand and feed material prices during the holiday for potential price disturbances [1] - Changjiang Futures advises a cautious approach with light positions during the holiday, focusing on key price levels of 3100 as resistance and 2950 as support [1]