外汇储备管理

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中国3.3万亿外汇储备的战略价值
Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang· 2025-10-10 05:07
外汇储备与黄金储备同步增长,传递出多重信号。 外汇储备与黄金储备同步增长,传递出多重信号。 作者:李晓丹 封图:图虫创意 国家外汇管理局9月7日发布的数据显示,截至2025年8月末,中国外汇储备规模达33222亿美元,较7月末上升299亿美元,升幅0.91%,继6月末后再次站 上3.3万亿美元关口。与此同时,中国央行已连续10个月增持黄金,8月末官方黄金储备增至7402万盎司(约2305吨)。 2025年前9个月,中国外汇储备规模基本保持连续增长态势,除7月份规模环比下降252亿美元外,1—9月份其余月份分别增加66.79亿美元、182亿美元、 134.41亿美元、410亿美元、36亿美元、322亿美元、299亿美元、165亿美元。 国家外汇管理局表示,2025年9月,受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策及预期等因素影响,美元指数小幅震荡,全球金融资产价格总体上涨,汇率折 算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用,当月外汇储备规模上升。中国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进,高质量发展取得新成效,有利于外汇储备规模保持基本 稳定。 国家外汇管理局同日发布的数据则显示,9月末中国黄金储备为7406万盎司,环比增加4万盎司,为中国央 ...
外汇储备再次站上3.3万亿美元关口 传递多重信号
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-10-09 16:01
(原标题:外汇储备再次站上3.3万亿美元关口 传递多重信号) 从储备多元化战略视角来看,黄金作为兼具避险属性与价值稳定性的特殊资产,是外汇储备降低对单一 货币依赖、分散汇率与信用风险的重要配置选项。中国央行已连续11个月增持黄金,9月末黄金储备规 模达 7406 万盎司,这一持续动作不仅是对全球经济不确定性的主动应对,更体现了优化储备资产结 构、增强储备抗风险能力的长期战略考量。 2025年前9个月,中国外汇储备规模基本保持连续增长态势,除7月份规模环比下降252亿美元外,1—9 月份其余月份分别增加66.79亿美元、182亿美元、134.41亿美元、410亿美元、36亿美元、322亿美元、 299亿美元、165亿美元。 国家外汇管理局表示,2025年9月,受主要经济体宏观经济数据、货币政策及预期等因素影响,美元指 数小幅震荡,全球金融资产价格总体上涨,汇率折算和资产价格变化等因素综合作用,当月外汇储备规 模上升。中国经济保持总体平稳、稳中有进,高质量发展取得新成效,有利于外汇储备规模保持基本稳 定。 国家外汇管理局同日发布的数据则显示,9月末中国黄金储备为7406万盎司,环比增加4万盎司,为中国 央行连续1 ...
连续11个月增持黄金,单月减持257亿美元美债!中国欲去美债化?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-08 21:14
在全球经济格局持续演变的大背景下,中国外汇储备的管理策略正展现出愈发精妙的平衡艺术。国家外汇管理局的最新数据显示,中国人民银行在2024年9 月继续增持黄金,以实际行动诠释了这一策略的转变。经过稳健的净买入,黄金储备总量攀升至7406万盎司的历史新高,彰显了中国优化储备结构的决心。 | 2025.05 | | 2025.06 | | 2025.07 | | 2025.08 | | 2025.09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 亿美元 | 亿SDR | 亿美元 | 亿SDR | 亿美元 | 亿SDR | 亿美元 | 亿SDR | 亿美元 | 亿SDR | | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | 100million | | USD | SDR | USD | SDR | USD | SDR | USD | SDR ...
连续11个月增持黄金,单月减持257亿美元美债!中国“欲去美债化”?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-07 11:43
国家外汇管理局最新数据显示,央行在9月继续增持黄金,净买入4万盎司后储备黄金总量攀升至7406万盎司,创下历史新高。值得注意的是,此轮黄金增持 已连续11个月持续,自2024年11月起每月均有净买入记录,而上一次连续增持周期则止步于2024年5月。 从操作节奏看,黄金增持呈现持续性特征,而美债操作则呈现明显的波动性。2024年11月至今年7月的9个月间,中国在美债操作上呈现"四增五减"的交替 格局。 2024年11月增持85亿美元,12月转为减持;2025年1月、2月、6月分别增持,3月、4月、5月、7月又现减持,8月、9月数据虽未公布,但节奏错配特征已十 分明显。这种"增持黄金+波动美债"的操作模式,与单纯替代逻辑存在根本性差异。 进一步对比黄金增持规模。本轮11个月累计增持226万盎司,月均仅11.5万盎司,仅为2022年11月至2024年5月期间月均53.5万盎司增持量的五分之一。更值 得注意的是,9月单月增持量骤降至4万盎司。 全球黄金市场流通性受制于存量有限,主要产金国年度新增供应量难以支撑大规模替代需求。正如市场规律所示,若黄金实现"量大管饱",其稀缺性价值将 大幅稀释,储藏意义亦随之弱化。 | ...
中国持7700亿美债,一旦美元崩盘,将损失巨大?实际情况截然相反
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-24 06:43
持有美国国债是中国外汇储备的一部分,最新数据到5月显示约7563亿美元,比上月减少9亿美元,已经连续三个月减持。从年初的7800亿美元左右逐步调 整,这反映出中国外汇管理策略的灵活性。 相比2011年的峰值1.32万亿美元,现在的持有量下降了42.7%,占美国国债市场的比例仅2.6%。这种减持不是突发行为,而是基于全球经济变化的主动选 择。 美国经济在2025年上半年显示出一些疲态,一季度经济增长率只有1.6%,远没有达到预期的2.5%。通胀指标核心个人消费支出价格指数停留在2.8%,高于 美联储设定的2%目标。 失业率攀升到4.2%,非农就业数据多次低于市场预期。美联储保持联邦基金利率在4.25%至4.5%的区间,7月会议后依然没有调整。 这些迹象表明,美国正面临供应链问题和贸易摩擦的影响,政策空间在缩小。 中国作为全球贸易大国,在这种环境下保持了稳定的外汇储备规模,截至7月末约为3.29万亿美元,这得益于出口强劲和制造业优势。 美联储的政策从2022年的加息周期到现在的观望,原本旨在控制通胀,但高利率已抑制投资,导致制造业指数跌至48以下的收缩区。相比2023年的基础设施 刺激,现在美国面临关税壁垒加剧, ...
刚刚明确了!中国回应美债波动“影响总体有限”,太提气
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-08 01:10
Core Insights - The article discusses China's ongoing reduction of U.S. Treasury holdings and the implications for its foreign exchange reserves, emphasizing that the impact of U.S. Treasury fluctuations on China's reserves is limited [1][6]. Data Analysis - As of March 2025, China holds $765.4 billion in U.S. Treasuries, a significant decrease from its peak of $1.3 trillion, indicating a planned adjustment rather than panic selling [1]. - China's gold reserves have been steadily increasing, reaching 73.77 million ounces by the end of April, marking six consecutive months of growth [3]. Strategic Management - China's foreign exchange reserve management follows three principles: safety, liquidity, and value preservation, contrasting with Western speculative practices [3]. - The article highlights China's historical resilience during financial crises, maintaining the largest foreign exchange reserves globally [3]. Policy and Cultural Factors - The success of China's foreign exchange reserve management is attributed to consistent and stable policies, which differ from the often-changing strategies seen in Western countries [6][9]. - Cultural traditions of prudence and foresight in Chinese society contribute to a balanced approach to financial risks, avoiding both panic and overconfidence [9]. Future Outlook - The article suggests that as the internationalization of the renminbi progresses and the Belt and Road Initiative develops, China's role in the global financial system will strengthen, potentially shifting the focus from concerns about U.S. Treasury holdings to global learning from China's financial strategies [15].
大动作来了?中方再减持189亿美元!“美债持有国”顺序发生变化
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-20 14:26
Group 1 - As of recent data, China's holdings of US Treasury bonds have decreased by approximately $18.9 billion, bringing the total to $765.4 billion, while the UK has increased its holdings by $28.9 billion to $779.3 billion, surpassing China as the second-largest holder of US debt [1][3] - Japan remains the largest holder of US Treasury bonds, with a total of $1,130.8 billion after increasing its holdings by $4.9 billion [3] - The Cayman Islands have significantly increased their holdings by $37.5 billion, totaling $455.3 billion, making them the fourth-largest holder of US Treasury bonds [3] Group 2 - The recent trend shows that most major holders of US debt, excluding China, have been increasing their holdings, with notable increases in Japan and the UK [3] - US Treasury yields have collectively risen, with the 10-year yield increasing by 1.3 basis points to 4.443%, and Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for the 10-year yield by the end of 2025 to 4.5% from a previous estimate of 4% [3] - The total US federal debt has surged to $36.21 trillion, highlighting the significant scale of US debt compared to other countries [3] Group 3 - China's ongoing reduction of US Treasury bonds is influenced by multiple factors, including the need for diversified asset allocation amid economic transformation and external pressures such as US-China trade tensions [5] - The decision to sell long-term US bonds and purchase shorter-term ones is a strategic move to mitigate risks associated with potential declines in bond prices [5] - Concerns over the recent downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating by Moody's and rising Treasury yields have contributed to China's decision to reduce its holdings [5] Group 4 - The situation presents a dilemma for the Trump administration, as efforts to increase government revenue through tariffs have not yielded the desired results [7] - The ongoing US-China tariff negotiations have seen the US making concessions, indicating challenges in maintaining a strong stance on trade [7] - For China, reducing US bond holdings serves as a proactive measure against uncertainties, while for the US, it acts as a warning signal regarding its financial credibility [7]
货币战争全面开打,亚洲沦为新战场,美联储降息前,中国先动手了
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-05-12 09:09
Group 1 - The recent decline of the US dollar index, which fell below 100, indicates a potential continuation of a "weak dollar" trend, impacting global financial dynamics, especially for export-dependent entities and forex investors facing asset devaluation pressures [1][3] - The depreciation of the dollar leads to wealth erosion for holders of dollar-denominated assets, prompting many investors to convert dollars into other currencies, resulting in significant inflows into Asian currencies, with the Japanese yen rising by 8.5%, the South Korean won by 7.21%, the New Taiwan dollar by 9.55%, and the Thai baht by 4.36% [3] - The stability of the Chinese yuan, which has only appreciated by 1.93%, is attributed to strong economic fundamentals and effective policy adjustments by the People's Bank of China [3] Group 2 - Significant fluctuations in currency exchange rates can negatively impact a country's export competitiveness, as a stronger domestic currency makes goods more expensive for foreign buyers, while a weaker currency can undermine investor confidence and lead to capital flight [5] - The recent appreciation of Asian currencies is largely a result of the passive weakening of the dollar rather than improvements in the underlying economic fundamentals of these countries, indicating a high degree of external influence and unpredictability [5] - In the context of the ongoing US-China trade tensions, currency stability is crucial for maintaining investor confidence and demonstrating resilience against external shocks [5] Group 3 - In response to external pressures, the People's Bank of China has implemented a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.1 percentage point decrease in policy interest rates, which will lower deposit interest rates and mortgage burdens for consumers [7] - The interest rate cuts may reduce the attractiveness of the yuan for investors holding dollars, thereby mitigating excessive speculation against the yuan and lowering the risk of it being shorted [7] - China's proactive monetary policy signals a shift away from passive alignment with US monetary policy, reflecting its growing independence and ability to manage its foreign exchange reserves effectively [7] Group 4 - The ongoing US-China trade conflict has escalated into a currency war, with China actively working to reduce its reliance on the dollar, which may signify the beginning of a new cycle in the global financial landscape [9] - The long-term weakening of the dollar could indicate a relative decline in its influence, as emerging economies rise and the global economy becomes more multipolar [9] - As the world's second-largest economy and the largest exporter, China has both the capability and necessity to establish an independent monetary policy framework to lessen the impact of external shocks [9]