Core Viewpoint - The gold market is expected to continue its strong performance in 2026, driven by geopolitical uncertainties, a weaker dollar, and ongoing central bank purchases, despite potential economic fluctuations [1][7][49]. Group 1: 2025 Gold Market Performance - In 2025, gold prices surged over 60%, reaching more than 50 historical highs, primarily due to geopolitical risks, economic uncertainties, and a declining dollar [1][11]. - The short-term price performance model indicates that geopolitical risks and reduced opportunity costs significantly contributed to the price increase [11][19]. Group 2: 2026 Market Scenarios - The World Gold Council outlines four potential scenarios for the 2026 gold market based on macroeconomic trends: stable growth, mild recession, severe recession, and return of inflation [1][20]. - In a mild recession scenario, gold prices could rise by 5% to 15% due to a slowing U.S. economy and increased Fed rate cuts [27]. - In a severe recession scenario, gold prices may increase by 15% to 30% as geopolitical and economic risks escalate [32]. - Conversely, in a return to inflation scenario, gold prices could decline by 5% to 20% if economic policies lead to stronger growth and a stronger dollar [36]. Group 3: Influencing Factors - Central bank gold purchases remain a crucial support factor, especially as emerging markets have low gold reserve ratios compared to developed economies [42][43]. - The supply of recycled gold may decrease if prices rise and economic conditions weaken, potentially supporting gold prices [2][38]. - Investment demand, particularly from gold ETFs, is expected to grow, providing additional upward pressure on gold prices [2][32]. Group 4: Conclusion - The outlook for the gold market in 2026 is shaped by economic uncertainties, with a likelihood of continued volatility similar to 2025 [49][50]. - Despite potential bearish scenarios, gold's role as a diversification and risk-hedging tool remains significant, with central bank purchases and recycled gold supply being key variables [50].

Core Insights - The global gold market is expected to enter a new phase in 2026, influenced by multiple interwoven factors, including geopolitical uncertainties and structural demand from investors and central banks [6][15]. Group 1: 2025 Gold Market Performance - The gold market in 2025 showed exceptional performance, with gold prices increasing by over 60% throughout the year and achieving more than 50 historical highs [3][12]. - Key drivers of this surge included economic expansion, risk and uncertainty, opportunity costs, and trend momentum, which collectively established gold's unique position in global asset allocation [3][12]. - China played a crucial role in the demand structure for gold, with global demand reaching a historical high of 3,640 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, a 41% increase year-on-year [5][14]. Group 2: 2026 Gold Market Outlook - The outlook for the gold market in 2026 suggests a dynamic balance influenced by various factors, including the potential for continued structural demand from investors and central banks, alongside pressures from global economic recovery and interest rate changes [6][15]. - Four potential scenarios for gold prices in 2026 are outlined: 1. Stable growth with a potential price fluctuation of -5% to +5% [6][15]. 2. Mild recession leading to a price increase of 5% to 15% [6][15]. 3. Severe economic downturn resulting in a price surge of 15% to 30% [6][15]. 4. Return of inflation causing a price decline of 5% to 20% [6][15]. Group 3: Central Bank Gold Purchases - Central bank purchases of gold are expected to remain a significant variable in the 2026 gold market, with emerging market central banks increasing their gold reserves [9][18]. - Gold accounts for approximately 25% of global central bank foreign exchange reserves, with developed economies holding about 30% and emerging markets around 15% [9][18]. - The trend towards diversification in global reserves is likely to enhance the gold allocation by emerging market central banks, reinforcing gold's strategic value in the global monetary system [9][19].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong stock market's gold sector showed active performance, with Zijin Mining International's stock price rising over 5% at one point [1] - Zijin Mining International, spun off from Zijin Mining Group, focuses on the operation of overseas gold assets and ranks among the top globally in gold reserves by the end of 2024 [3] - The World Gold Council's CEO highlighted that the gold market is expected to perform outstandingly in 2025, with significant price increases and multiple historical highs throughout the year [3] Group 2 - Key factors driving gold price increases include economic expansion, risks and uncertainties, opportunity costs, and trend momentum [3] - The gold market is anticipated to enter a new phase in 2026, influenced by geopolitical uncertainties and structural demand from investors and central banks [3] - The World Gold Council's report outlines various potential scenarios for the gold market in 2026, including stable global economic growth, mild recession, economic downturn, and a return to re-inflation [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of the gold market in 2025, with record high demand and prices, driven by solid investment demand and central bank purchases [2][3] - In 2025, global gold demand reached 3,640 tons, marking a historical high, with investment demand, particularly in physical gold bars and gold ETFs, becoming the dominant force [2] - Central banks continue to purchase gold as part of a strategy to diversify foreign exchange reserves, providing ongoing support for gold prices despite a slight moderation in buying pace [2][3] Group 2 - The dual attributes of gold as both a metal and a financial asset are emphasized, with consumption demand influenced by economic growth and investment demand sensitive to risk and uncertainty [3] - The article notes that the dynamics of the Asian market, especially China, have become key variables in global gold price fluctuations, enhancing market liquidity [3] - For 2026, four scenarios for gold price trends are outlined, ranging from stable growth to potential significant increases in the event of a global recession [4][7] Group 3 - Key variables impacting the gold market in 2026 include the pace of central bank gold purchases, sustained demand from the Chinese market, and global economic and geopolitical risks [7] - The strategic allocation value of gold remains significant in uncertain environments, suggesting it should be an important component of asset portfolios for risk hedging [7]

Core Insights - The event hosted by 第一金 featured Nobel laureate and former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, focusing on the theme of "Grasping New Economic Realities and Creating Golden Opportunities" [2] - The forum gathered nearly a hundred distinguished guests, including leaders from 福而伟集团, 第一金, and the World Gold Council, showcasing the event's significance in the financial sector [2] - Discussions at the forum covered key topics such as global economic trends, the internationalization of the Renminbi, and the outlook for the gold market, with Bernanke providing valuable insights based on his extensive experience [2] Company Highlights - 第一金 presented a commemorative coin to Bernanke, symbolizing the company's respect and commitment to excellence and innovation in the precious metals industry [3] - The successful hosting of the high-end financial forum marks an important milestone in 第一金's development and establishes a new paradigm for cross-industry communication within the precious metals sector [3] - Looking ahead, 第一金 aims to uphold a spirit of craftsmanship and continuous improvement, focusing on optimizing its product offerings and enhancing service quality [3]