Core Insights - The report focuses on two historical gold bull market cycles: 1975-1980 and 2005-2011, analyzing the correlation and divergence between gold and U.S. equities during different phases and the underlying driving mechanisms [3][17]. - Three core variables influencing the relationship between gold and U.S. equities are identified: U.S. dollar credit, monetary policy cycles, and the evolution of risk events [3][17]. Framework 1: Major Asset Allocation Strategy - Utilizing Martin J. Pring's business cycle framework, the U.S. economy from 1975 to present is segmented into six cycles: depression, recovery, prosperity, overheating, stagflation, and recession [6][29]. - In the depression phase, bonds outperform due to declining economic and inflation conditions; during recovery, equities become the core allocation as economic stability and declining inflation support growth [6][29]. Framework 2: Global Monetary Easing and Asset Rotation Strategy - Historical data reveals that post-economic crises, the recovery sequence of various resource prices follows their proximity to end-user demand [7][18]. - After the 2008 financial crisis, gold stabilized first due to its safe-haven attributes, followed by commodities with both financial and industrial characteristics, and finally assets closely tied to real demand [7][18]. Gold Bull Market Cycle Analysis - The first gold bull market (1975-1980) was driven by stagflation, with gold prices increasing by 242%, significantly outperforming the S&P 500's 98% rise [32][37]. - The second bull market (2005-2011) was characterized by the subprime crisis and quantitative easing, evolving through four phases: pre-crisis coordination, crisis-induced divergence, policy-driven coordination, and renewed divergence amid rising risks [17][32]. Future Outlook - The Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts may benefit both U.S. equities and gold, with a favorable monetary environment likely to boost equity valuations and resource prices [9][18]. - However, there is a caution regarding the internal conflict between gold and technology stocks, particularly if AI investments do not enhance productivity and fiscal sustainability, which could lead to market volatility [9][18].

Group 1: Gold Market Performance - The main gold futures price in Shanghai is reported at 942.28 CNY per gram, with a decline of 0.77% [1] - The opening price for the day was 927.66 CNY per gram, reaching a high of 948.00 CNY and a low of 923.62 CNY [1] Group 2: Macro News - Concerns over intensified international trade disputes have increased due to new export control discussions from the White House, alongside disappointing corporate earnings impacting the market [1] - The Federal Reserve held a Fintech conference discussing the integration of traditional finance with digital assets, stablecoin business models, AI in payments, and tokenized products [1] - Federal Reserve Governor Waller indicated that the DeFi sector is no longer viewed with skepticism, and the Fed is open to payment innovations, proposing a "streamlined master account" concept for non-bank payment companies [1] Group 3: Institutional Views on Gold - The ongoing U.S. government shutdown and a national debt exceeding 38 trillion USD, along with the complex situation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have led to a decrease in market risk appetite [2] Group 4: Silver Market Performance - The international silver price closed at 48.501 USD per ounce, with a slight decline of 0.35% [5] - The silver market is supported by rising expectations of Federal Reserve easing, overseas physical demand, and ETF inflows, although domestic industrial demand remains weak, indicating a mixed market condition [4] Group 5: Price Support Levels - The international gold price closed at 4097.59 USD per ounce, down 0.63%, with a rebound after testing the 4000 USD level, which is seen as a support point [3] - Short-term pressures on silver prices are expected due to liquidity disturbances, with support around 47 USD [6]