Group 1 - The strong upward trend of gold is facing short-term correction risks, with analysts warning of a potential 5%-6% pullback, but the long-term bullish foundation remains solid, with expectations of surpassing $4000 per ounce by 2026 [1][4][6] - Factors driving the continuous rise in gold prices include widespread expectations of an upcoming interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve, ongoing geopolitical tensions, and concerns over the Fed's independence, combined with strong demand from central banks [2][5] - Analysts indicate that gold has entered an "unknown territory" after rapidly breaking through the $3400 and $3500 levels, suggesting that the market may experience a pullback after the current rally, which could present a buying opportunity for investors waiting on the sidelines [3][4] Group 2 - The macroeconomic fundamentals supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold remain unchanged, with strong market demand reflected in price predictions being reached faster than expected [4][5] - Key factors supporting the long-term bull market for gold include anticipated monetary policy easing, ongoing geopolitical risks, and robust official and investment demand, particularly from central banks and ETFs [5][6] - Analysts provide optimistic long-term price forecasts, with expectations of gold prices reaching around $3800 by the end of this year and potentially exceeding $4000 by 2026, with some predicting prices could rise to $4200 [6] Group 3 - Silver has also performed strongly, reaching approximately $42.73 per ounce, a 14-year high, driven by both its investment and industrial attributes [7][10] - The rise in silver prices is supported by solid fundamentals, including strong physical demand in electronics and solar panels, along with concerns over supply shortages [10]

Core Viewpoint - Incrementum AG's annual report indicates that despite the surge in gold prices to a record $3,500 per ounce, the long-term bull market for gold is still in its early stages, with expectations of higher price increases in the latter half of this decade [1] Group 1: Price Predictions - The research team led by Ronald-Peter Stferle and Mark Valek forecasts that gold could reach $4,800 per ounce by 2030, with a potential "bull market scenario" pushing prices up to $8,900 due to rising inflation threats [1] - Since the initial prediction in 2020, gold prices have increased by 92%, yet its allocation in overall investment portfolios remains around 1% [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The report emphasizes that the current phase of the bull market is characterized by increasing media optimism, which could lead to a "mania phase" [1] - Although gold prices have performed well this year, they remain moderate compared to historical bull markets, with 22 new highs recorded as of April 30, compared to 43 last year [1] Group 3: Demand Drivers - Incrementum anticipates that investment demand will become a new driving force for gold prices, as investors seek to hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainties, despite current inflows into gold ETFs lagging behind stocks and bonds [1] - Central bank demand is highlighted as a significant support for gold prices, but the report suggests that the influx of Western financial investors is still awaited [1] Group 4: Economic Context - The report critiques the U.S. government's tightening policies, suggesting they may push the economy towards recession, which could ultimately benefit gold as the Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates in response to economic slowdowns [1] - Analysts warn that a weak dollar policy could undermine currency credibility and deter essential capital inflows, potentially leading to inflation and reduced purchasing power [2]